Friday, May 30, 2014
Monday, May 26, 2014
Monday, May 12, 2014
SAMVAT REPORT - "MAJOR UPTREND INTACT, MEGA BREAKOUT IN MAKING"
MAJOR UPTREND INTACT, MEGA BREAKOUT IN MAKING
· As shown in the chart below, Nifty is on the cusp of a major breakout. After making a top of 6357 in 2008, Nifty plunged all the way to 2252 in October 2008. From there it rebounded back to 6338 in November 2010, made a double top and fell to 4531 in December 2011.
· The benchmark is now again near the two erstwhile tops. If these tops are taken out, it would confirm a major breakout from a long-long consolidation of nearly six years. This in turn would project major upmove over next couple of years.
· The triangle formed by 6338-4531 range projects a target of about 8150, which can materialise over one and half to two years.
· Moving forward, if one takes the triangle formed by 6357-2252 range, the target comes to about 10460, which can materialise over next 3-4 years.
· On the way down, trendline adjoining two major bottoms, viz. 920 in 2003 and 2252 in 2008, presents a solid support around 5100.
· As shown in the chart below, Nifty is on the cusp of a major breakout. After making a top of 6357 in 2008, Nifty plunged all the way to 2252 in October 2008. From there it rebounded back to 6338 in November 2010, made a double top and fell to 4531 in December 2011.
· The benchmark is now again near the two erstwhile tops. If these tops are taken out, it would confirm a major breakout from a long-long consolidation of nearly six years. This in turn would project major upmove over next couple of years.
· The triangle formed by 6338-4531 range projects a target of about 8150, which can materialise over one and half to two years.
· Moving forward, if one takes the triangle formed by 6357-2252 range, the target comes to about 10460, which can materialise over next 3-4 years.
· On the way down, trendline adjoining two major bottoms, viz. 920 in 2003 and 2252 in 2008, presents a solid support around 5100.
Friday, May 9, 2014
Friday, May 2, 2014
PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 02.05.2014
BANG ON TARGET
WORLD MARKETS
US indices ended
little changed yesterday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to
a record finish, as markets awaited Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for April.
Initial claims for
unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 344,000 last week. The four-week moving
average gained 3,000 to 320,000. A separate report from the Commerce Department
had consumer spending jumping the most in nearly five years in March, up 0.9%,
while the Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 54.9 in April
from 53.7 the month before.
European markets
ended mixed. FTSE gained 0.4%, rising for the fourth straight day. A U.K. house
price index showed prices soared 10.9 percent in April year-on-year, beating
analysts' expectations. In addition, a manufacturing PMI survey for the U.K.
showed a rise to 57.3 in April, versus estimates of 55.4 and a previous figure
of 55.8.
Earlier, data
showed that China's official PMI rose to 50.4 in April, just missing analysts'
expectations, but better than March's 50.3.
Gold fell 1% to
close at $1283. Crude-oil declined 40 cents to $99.4 a barrel.
AT HOME
After rising a
percent in the morning trade, benchmark indices nosedived just under 2% from
the top of the day, but cut some of the losses in last hour to finally end
lower by nearly a fourth of a percent. Sensex settled at 22418, down 48 points
while Nifty finished at 6696, down 19 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices
tumbled 1.1% and 1.6% respectively. BSE Realty index sank 5.3%, becoming top
loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 2.1% cut in Power index. Auto and
FMCG indices gained 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.
FIIs net bought
stocks and stock futures worth Rs 454 cr and 51 cr respectively but net sold
index futures worth Rs 267 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 6 cr.
Rupee appreciated
11 paise to close at 60.31/$.
India's core sector
growth slowed to 2.5% in March from 7% y-o-y and 4.5% month-on-month.
Maruti reported
11.4% y-o-y dip in April sales at 97302 units. M & M too reported 12% dip
in total sales at 36274 units. Hero Moto Corp however reported 14.5% jump at
5.71 lac units.
OUTLOOK
Today morning Asian
markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about
25 points higher opening for our market.
In our latest
weekly as well as subsequent daily reports we had been mentioning that Nifty
can retest the 6650-6665 bottom if sustains below 6773. We had also been mentioning
that 6665 is the important near term support, a breach of which will break the
higher-top higher-bottom formation on the daily chart. Nifty, on Friday, after touching
a low of 6657, bounced back smartly to close at 6696, and is set to open about
30 points higher today, vindicating our view perfectly.
As long as Nifty
holds 6665, the correction over past four should be seen as a healthy one.
Immediate
resistance on the hourly chart is placed around 6780, a crossover of which
would generate a buy signal on the hourly chart and would pave the way for the
retest of the 6870 top made last week.
Traders are advised
to wait for the crossover of 6780 for building fresh longs. Existing longs
should carry a stop loss of 6665 on closing basis.
In the US, April
employment report will be released today, which is expected to show an addition
of 210000 jobs.
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