NIFTY BACK IN THE VICINITY OF 7770 HURDLE; 7670 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY BACK IN THE VICINITY OF 7770 HURDLE; 7670 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained about half a percent, but closed off the day high yesterday, nevertheless extending Tuesday's gains following Fed Chair Janet Yellen's cautious stance on the path of tightening. 

Dollar index recovered from day low to end 0.4% lower for its third-straight day of decline. Euro hit $1.1364, its highest since Feb 11.

Nymex oil settled up 4 cents at $38.32 a barrel while Brent rose 12 cents to $39.26. EIA announced that U.S. crude stockpiles had risen by 2.3 million barrels in the last week.

European markets, supported by a solid recovery in commodity stocks, gained 0.7%-1.8% with French CAC leading the gains.

AT HOME

After a two day retreat, bulls were back with a vengeance as benchmark indices soared 1.8% to close at the highest level since 6th January. Sensex soared 438 points to settle at 25339 while Nifty finished at 7735, up 138 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices also gained 1.8% each. Except a 0.1% cut in Telecom index, all the sectoral indices ended in green with Realty index and Bankex leading the tally, up 3.8% and 3.1% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1443 cr and 395 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 565 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 397 cr.

Rupee appreciated 17 paise to end at 66.37/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 7670 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart which should serve as the stop loss for trading shorts.

The benchmark crossed this hurdle in the morning trade itself and surged all the way to 7742 before closing at 7735.

After yesterday's big upmove, Nifty is back in the vicinity of 34-week moving average hurdle placed around 7770. Upon sustained trading above it, next big hurdle as well as the target to watch out would be 200-DMA placed around 7900.

Meanwhile trading longs can be held on to with the stop loss of 7670, which is the immediate support on the hourly chart.

DOVISH YELLEN LIFTS WORLD EQUITIES; 7670 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE FOR NIFTY

DOVISH YELLEN LIFTS WORLD EQUITIES; 7670 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE FOR NIFTY

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.6%-1.7% yesterday with tech stocks leading the gains after remarks from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen appeared dovish enough to assuage concerns about a near-term interest rate hike. Both S & P 500 and Dow closed at their highest levels of the year so far.

Yellen, in her prepared remarks at the Economic Club of New York said that economic readings are mixed and it is appropriate to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy.

Following the comments, Dollar index fell more than 0.8% for its worst day since March 17. Gold gained $16 to $1236 an ounce, for its first positive day in four.

Nymex oil fell $1.11 to $38.28 a barrel and Brent fell $1.13 to $39.14 after the decision by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to resume oil production at the jointly operated 300,000-barrel-per-day Khafji field.

In economic news, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index for January showed a 5.7% rise from the previous year.

European markets gained upto 0.8% with DAX leading the gains.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended lower by a fourth of a percent after a choppy trade, extending the losing streak to second straight day. Sensex settled at 24900, down 66 points while Nifty lost 18 points to finish at 7597. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Healthcare index tumbled 2.6%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1% cut in Capital Goods index.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 513 cr and 208 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 756 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 557 cr.

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to end at 66.54/$.

Lupin plunged 6% after reports that the company's Mandideep unit in Madhya Pradesh has received observations from the US Foods and Drug Administration.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is trading with modest cuts while Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are up about a percent and half. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points higher opening for our market.

Nifty, after breaking 7600 support in intraday trade on Monday, closed below this level yesterday. While the benchmark is in "Buy" mode on the daily chart, hourly chart is in "Sell" mode. Short term traders should hold short positions with the stop loss of 7670, which is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

7400, the 38.2% retracement of the 6825-7750 upmove, continues to be the major downside target.

NIFTY RESISTED NEAR 34-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

NIFTY RESISTED NEAR 34-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 ended marginally higher while Nasdaq lost 0.1% yesterday.

Consumer spending rose 0.1% in February, after January's figure was revised lower to show a 0.1% gain versus the previously reported 0.5% rise. Personal income rose 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, prices gained 0.1% after advancing 0.3% in January. In the 12 months through February, the core PCE price index increased 1.7% after a similar increase in January. Pending home sales index rose 3.5% to 109.1 last month, the highest level in seven months. January's reading was revised to show a 3% decline, which was deeper than initially reported.

The advance February goods trade deficit came in wider than estimated at $62.86 billion. This, along with the downward revision in January consumption prompted several cuts to first-quarter GDP estimates. On Friday, third GDP estimate for the fourth quarter showed an annual growth rate of 1.4% instead of the previously reported 1.0% pace.

Nymex oil settled down 0.2% at $39.39 a barrel. Dollar index fell for the first time in six sessions.

European markets were closed for Easter Monday.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, benchmark indices saw a sustained downward move through the session to end with deep cuts of nearly a percent and third, breaking six-day winning streak. Sensex lost 371 points to settle at 24966 while Nifty ended at 7615, down 101 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Realty and Metal indices leading the tally, down 4.3% and 3.9% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 2043 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 161 cr and 1787 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 2494 cr.

Rupee appreciated 6 paise to end at 66.58/$.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar yesterday unveiled the much-awaited Defence Procurement Procedure, saying it will ensure transparency and speed in acquisition process and boost the ‘Make in India’ initiative to reduce dependence on exports.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher opening for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with the target of 34-week moving average ever since 7540-7600 hurdle was taken out. Nifty yesterday touched a high of 7749, coming in very close to 34-week moving average, which is now placed around 7765, but witnessed sever profit booking from there to end at 7615.

In intraday trade, the benchmark touched a low of 7588, breaking the immediate support of 7600 and generating a sell on the hourly chart.

A breach of 7588 would open up the space for the further downside till about 7400, which is the 38.2% retracement level of the 6826-7749 pullback rally.

On the way up 7765, the 34-week moving average continues to be major resistance to eye, a crossover of which is required for fresh upmove.

NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION; 7600-7800 C0NTINUE TO BE LEVELS TO EYE

NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION; 7600-7800 C0NTINUE TO BE LEVELS TO EYE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended little changed after recovering from session lows on Thursday before closing for a long weekend as oil prices recovered from session lows and the U.S. dollar index gave back some gains.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Fed's next interest rate hike "may not be far off," provided the economy evolves as expected.

US crude settled down 33 cents or 0.8% at $39.46 a barrel. U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday said that stockpiles had risen by 9.4 million barrels in the previous week, three times more than the. On the other hand, the weekly oil rig count, released Thursday due to the Good Friday holiday, showed a drop of 15 oil rigs.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 265,000. February durable goods orders declined 2.8%. The Markit flash U.S. services PMI was 51.0 in March, up from 49.7 in February.

European markets, weighed down by fresh concerns over U.S. interest rate hikes and another day of losses in commodity markets, ended with cuts of 1.5%-2.1%.

For the week, Dow and Nasdaq lost half a percent and S & P 500 fell 0.7%, breaking five-week winning streak. European markets saw cuts ranging from 0.4%-2.3% with CAC leading on the way down. Gold fell 2.6% for its worst week since Nov. 6. Nymex crude fell 5% for its first weekly loss since mid-February.

AT HOME

Wednesday was yet another day of consolidation as benchmark indices, after falling about half a percent in the first half, recouped all the losses in later half to end little changed before closing for long weekend. Sensex settled at 25338, up 7 points while Nifty rose2 points to finish at 7717. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% each. BSE Metal and Telecom indices climbed 1.7% and 1.2% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Energy and Oil & Gas indices were the top losers, down 1.1% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 977 cr and 740 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1082 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1023 cr.

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to end at 66.64/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.5% each, extending the winning streak to fourth straight week.

Accenture reported better-than-expected Q2 revenue growth of 12% yoy. The company also raised full year revenue growth guidance from 6-9% to 8-10%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.7%. SGX Nifty is trading around 7700, which is down about 35 points from Wednesday's close of Nifty future.

Readers would recall that ever since Nifty took out 7540-7600 hurdle, we have been working with the target of 34-week moving average, which is currently placed around 7790.

That continues to be the upside target to eye.

7600, the erstwhile resistance, continues to be immediate support to eye, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

7800 CONTINUES TO BE UPSIDE TARGET; 7600 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

7800 CONTINUES TO BE UPSIDE TARGET; 7600 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 ended lower by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq gained 0.3% yesterday amid news of explosions in Belgium's capital. Dow broke seven day winning streak.

A series of deadly explosions rocked Brussels, targeting the Belgian capital's main airport and metro system which killed at least 31 people and injured nearly 200.

Markit's flash U.S. manufacturing PMI came in at 51.4. Home prices rose 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose in March to 22, the highest since April 2010.

Nymex crude fell 7 cents to $41.45 while Brent rose 25 cents to $41.79 a barrel. Gold rose $4.40 to $1249 an ounce.

European markets came off session lows to end with gains of upto 0.4% with DAX leading the gains. The pan-European STOXX 600 provisionally closed lower by 0.21%.

AT HOME

After Monday's big upmove, yesterday was a day of consolidation as benchmark indices, after a heavy intraday volatility, ended modestly higher, nevertheless, extending the rising streak to fifth straight day. Sensex settled at 25330, up 45 points while Nifty added 11 points to finish at 7715. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Except a 1.2% and 0.01% cut in FMCG index and Bankex, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Realty and Consumer Durable indices leading the tally, up 2.7% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1095 cr and 200 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1127 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 930 cr.

Rupee depreciated 18 paise to end at 66.71/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Nifty yesterday ended modestly higher after a choppy session. 7790, where 34-week moving average is placed, continues to be upside hurdle as well as the target to eye.

7600, the erstwhile resistance, continues to be immediate support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

Indian market will remain shut tomorrow for Holi and on Friday on occasion of Good Friday. 

NIFTY SURGES TOWARDS 7800 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7600

NIFTY SURGES TOWARDS 7800 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7600

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.1% each while Nasdaq rose 0.3% yesterday

Existing home sales declined 7.1% in February to an annual rate of 5.08 million units, the lowest level since November. Chicago Fed national activity index posted a decline to minus 0.29 in February from 0.41 in January.

Nymex crude April future rose 47 cents or 1.2% to $39.91 a barrel after data showed crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. futures fell for the first time since January. Brent rose 34 cents or 0.8% to $41.54 .

European markets, except a half a percent higher Italy, lost upto 0.8%.

Earlier, Shanghai composite surged more than 2% after state-backed China Securities Finance, which lends brokerages money to fund margin financing, late Friday said it would resume some short-term lending businesses and cut borrowing costs for brokerages.

Gold fell $10 to $1244 an ounce.

AT HOME

After a positive start, benchmark indices builded on the initial gains through the session to finish with hefty gains of a percent and a third and closing at the highest level since 6th January. Sensex soared 333 points to settle at 25285 while Nifty finished at 7704, up 100 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.4% each. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Industrial and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 2.2% and 2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1396 cr and 251 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 78 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 619 cr.

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 66.53/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei, after yesterday’s holiday, has opened up about 2%, other Asian markets are trading mixed and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had clearly mentioned that having taken out the 7600 hurdle decisively, Nifty is now headed to 7800, where the 34-week moving average is placed. The benchmark soared 100 points to finish at 7704, moving towards 7800 target and vindicating our view.

7800 continues to be major upside target to eye. 7600, the erstwhile resistance, will now act as the immediate support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

NIFTY TAKES OUT 7600 HURDLE; STAY LONG WITH STOP LOSS OF 7479 FOR TARGET OF 7800

NIFTY TAKES OUT 7600 HURDLE; STAY LONG WITH STOP LOSS OF 7479 FOR TARGET OF 7800

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow climbed 0.7% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.4% each on Friday

Nymex Oil, after touching a three-and-a-half-month high of $41 a barrel, eased to settle down 76 cents or 1.9% at $39.44 a barrel.

The preliminary March read on consumer sentiment came in at 90.0, down from 91.7 in February.

European markets, except a 0.2% lower FTSE, gained upto 0.8%.

Gold fell $11 to $1254 an ounce.

For the week, US indices gained 1%-2.3%. In Europe, FTSE and DAX gained 0.8% and 1.2% respectively while CAC lost 0.7%. US dollar index declined more than a percent for the week, its third straight weekly decline. Gold ended lower by 0.4%, its second-straight weekly decline.

AT HOME

It was a good end to the week as benchmark indices soared more than a percent on Friday to close at the highest level since 6th January, 2016. Sensex added 275 points to settle at 24953 while Nifty finished at 7604, up 92 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% each. Except a 0.8% cut in Healthcare index, all the BSE sectoral indices closed in green with IT and Teck indices leading the tally, up 2.3% and 2.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1713 cr and 491 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 171 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 403 cr.

Rupee appreciated 25 paise to end at 66.50/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1% and 1.2% respectively, extending the winning streak to third straight week.

OUTLOOK

Today, Nikkei is shut for a public holiday, Shanghai is up nearly a percent and half, other Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points lower opening for our market.

Nifty on Friday closed at 7604, decisively taking out 7600 hurdle we have been talking about for quite some time.

Next meaningful target, as we have been mentioning, would come around 7800, where 34-week moving average is placed.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 7479, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

DOLLAR INDEX TUMBLES TO FIVE MONTH LOW WHILE OIL CLIMBS TO 2016 HIGH; NIFTY FAILS TO TAKE OUT 7600 HURDLE

DOLLAR INDEX TUMBLES TO FIVE MONTH LOW WHILE OIL CLIMBS TO 2016 HIGH; NIFTY FAILS TO TAKE OUT 7600 HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.2%-0.9% yesterday on the back of rising oil and a positive view of the Fed's Wednesday announcement. Materials, Industrials and Energy were the best performing sectors. Dow turned positive for the year, recouping 11% loss.

Nymex oil soared 4.5% to $40.20 a barrel for its highest settle of the year so far as the dollar weakened and talk continued about an April 17 meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Brent rose $1.21 to $41.54.

US weekly jobless claims came in at 265,000. The March Philly Fed index was 12.4 versus minus 2.8 for February. Fourth-quarter current account data showed a deficit of $125.3 billion. Leading indicators for February rose 0.1%.

In Europe, FTSE and Spain gained 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while CAC, DAX and Italy fell 0.4%, 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. The Bank of England voted 9-0 to keep the U.K. main interest rate at 0.5% — marking the seventh straight year of record-low interest rates. The central bank of Norway cut its key interest rate to an all-time low of 0.5% from 0.75% and raised the prospect of a move into negative territory.

Dollar index fell more than a percent and touched its lowest level since October 2015. Against the Yen, dollar hit the lowest level since October 2014. Gold climbed $35 to $1265 an ounce.

AT HOME

After Wednesday's dramatic recovery, yesterday was a day of dramatic fall as benchmark indices, after gaining more than a percent in the morning trade, gave away all the gains in the late noon sell-off to end near zero line. Sensex settled at 24677, down 5 points while Nifty managed to gain 14 points to finish at 7513. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and Basic Material indices gained 2.3% and 1.3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare and Realty indices fell 1.2% and 0.9% respectively, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 744 cr, 592 cr and 444 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 168 cr.

Rupee appreciated 48 paise to end at 66.75/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is down more than a percent and half on the back of strengthening Yen. Other Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had clearly mentioned that after a gap up opening Nifty would be again close to important 7600 hurdle, a crossover of which is required for the fresh upmove. We had also advised waiting for the crossover of the top made in first hour for taking long positions.

The benchmark made a top of 7585 in the first hour of trade but could not cross it and plunged sharply in the late noon trade to end at 7513.

We reiterate the view that 7600 continues to be an important hurdle, a crossover of which is required for fresh upmove. On the way down, 7405, the bottom made on Wednesday, is the immediate support.

DOVISH FED SPARKS RISK-ON TRADE; NIFTY SET TO RE-CHALLENGE 7600 HURDLE

DOVISH FED SPARKS RISK-ON TRADE; NIFTY SET TO RE-CHALLENGE 7600 HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.4%-0.8% on the back of rebound in oil prices and dovish Fed statement.

The Fed left rates unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.5% at its March meeting and cut its projection for the number of 2016 rate hikes from four to two, and projected just two hikes in 2017. This was far more dovish than markets had expected, resulting in sharp rallies in commodities, emerging markets and commodity-related currencies.

The central bank also cut its outlook for 2016 GDP growth to 2.2% from 2.4% previously.

Nymex oil climbed 5.8% to $38.46 a barrel and Brent rose 4% to $40.33 after Qatari oil ministry said that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will to hold a meeting in Doha on April 17 and data from Energy Information Administration showed a build-up of 1.3 mn barrels in the US, instead of the expected 3.4 mn.

In economic news, CPI declined 0.2% but core CPI rose 0.3% in February for a 2.3% rise over the 12 months through February. Housing starts rose 5.2% in February. Industrial production declined 0.5% in February, with capacity utilization at 76.7%.

Weekly mortgage application volume fell 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, but still nearly 21% higher y-o-y.

Dollar index fell more than a percent to 95.5, its lowest since Feb. 12. Gold jumped more than 2% to $1261 an ounce.

In Europe, FTSE and DAX gained about half a percent while France, Italy and Spain ended with modest cuts.

AT HOME

It was a dramatic day of trade as benchmark indices, after falling about three fourth of a percent in the morning trade, climbed nearly a percent and quarter from the bottom of the day to end higher by half a percent. Sensex settled at 24682, up 131 points while Nifty added 38 points to finish at 7499. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however lost 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. BSE Bankex and IT indices gained 0.9% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durable index plunged 3.6%, becoming top loser, followed by 1.1% cut in Telecom index.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 626 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 115 cr and 955 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 680 cr.

Rupee appreciated 16 paise to end at 67.22/$.

The Lok Sabha yesterday passed the contentious Aadhaar (Targeted Delivery of Financial and other subsidies, benefits and services) Bill, 2016, even as it was sent back by the Rajya Sabha, which sought five amendments to the bill. The government had tabled the Aadhaar Bill as a money bill, on which the Rajya Sabha does not have the power to vote and can only suggest changes. With Lok Sabha having ignored the proposed amendments, the Aadhaar Bill is now deemed to have been passed by Parliament.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.5%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 90 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 7460 is the immediate support, a sustained trading below which will generate a sell on the hourly chart and can take the benchmark to around 7300, where 34-DMA is placed.

Nifty broke this support and fell to 7405 intraday but rebounded sharply in the noon trade to end at 7499.

A big gap up opening today would take the benchmark closer to 7600 hurdle we have been talking for couple of days.

A successful crossover of 7600 would open up the space for the further upside till about 7800, where 34-week moving average is placed.

Traders can initiate fresh longs upon crossover of the high made in first hour of trade with the stop loss of 7490, which is the immediate support on the hourly chart.

NIFTY TUMBLES AFTER BEING RESISTED NEAR 7600, VINDICATES OUR VIEW

NIFTY TUMBLES AFTER BEING RESISTED NEAR 7600, VINDICATES OUR VIEW

WORLD MARKETS                             

While Dow managed to end 0.1% higher, S & P 500 and Nasdaq, led lower by healthcare stocks, closed 0.2% and 0.4% lower yesterday ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting.

Nymex oil fell 2.3% to $36.34 a barrel, extending the decline to second straight day to settle at the lowest level since March 4. Brent ended down 79 cents at $38.74.

US retail sales fell a less-than-expected 0.1% in February, but January's figure was revised down to show a 0.4% decline versus the previously reported 0.2% increase. Producer prices fell 0.2% in February, but were unchanged over the last 12 months. That marked the first time since January 2015 that the year-on-year PPI did not decline. NAHB Housing Market Index held steady at 58 in March.

European markets fell 0.6%-1.7%. Basic resources was the worst performing sector as weak earnings and a fall in metal prices weighed on the sector.

Gold lost $14 to close at $1231 an ounce.

Earlier the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged, as expected, but gave a gloomier view on the economy and exports in particular than it did in January.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, benchmark indices saw a sustained downward move through the session to end a percent lower. Sensex lost 253 points to settle at 24551 while Nifty finished at 7461, down 78 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. BSE Healthcare index plunged 3%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.5% cut in FMCG index. Bankex and Oil & Gas indices gained 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 54 cr and 684 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 554 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 302 cr.

Rupee depreciated 27 paise to end at 67.38/$.

India's trade deficit fell from USD 7.64 bn in January to USD 6.54 bn in February. Exports fell 5.66% to USD 20.74 while imports fell 5.03% to USD 28.71 bn.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, barring a half a percent lower Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading flat to modestly higher and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher opening for our market.

For past couple of days we have been cautioning that 7540-7600 is the important resistance area, a crossover of which is required for further upmove. We had also advised booking profits in trading longs as this resistance area approaches.

The benchmark, after touching a high of 7584 on Monday, slipped sharply in yesterday's trade to end at 7460, vindicating our view.

In yesterday's report we had also mentioned that 7460 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, a a sustained trading below which will generate a sell on the hourly chart and can take the benchmark to around 7300, where 34-DMA is placed.

That continues to be the view. 7460-7425 is the region where multiple bottoms on the hourly chart are placed. Once this support area is taken out, traders can initiate short positions with the stop loss of 7500, which is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

Crossover of 7600 should be awaited for taking fresh longs.

Key event to watch out today would be the Federal Open Market Committee decision in the US. The US central bank is widely expected to keep the interest rate unchanged but market will closely watch out for the wordings of the committee's statement for cues on the direction ahead. 

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 7540-7600 HURDLE AREA; 7460 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 7540-7600 HURDLE AREA; 7460 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and Nasdaq ended marginally higher while S & P 500 lost 0.1% yesterday, digesting decline in oil prices and awaiting Fed meeting scheduled in the middle of the week.

Nymex oil fell $1.32 or 3.4% to $37.18 a barrel and Brent fell 2% to $39.53 as hopes of a coordinated production freeze faded. The Iranian News Agency Shana quoted Russian Energy Minister saying Russia accepts Iranian rights to increase oil output post sanctions. Over the weekend, Iran Oil Minister said the country would join discussions among other producers about a possible oil production freeze after its own output reached four million barrels per day.

OPEC also issued its latest report, saying it expected lower demand for its oil in 2016, than previously forecast.

European markets, except a marginally lower Italy, gained 0.6%-1.6% with DAX leading the tally. Industrial output in the euro zone rose dramatically in January, by 2.1% month-on-month, above forecasts of 1.7%.

Gold fell $14 to $1245 an ounce.

AT HOME

After rising nearly a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices gave away more than half of the gains through the session to end higher by about four tenth of a percent, nevertheless closing at the highest level since 1st February. Sensex settled at 24804, up 86 points while Nifty added 29 points to finish at 7539. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Bankex and Industrial indices gained 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Metal index plunged 2%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.5% cut in Energy index.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1036 cr and 861 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 253 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 805 cr.

Rupee depreciated 7 paise to end at 67.11/$.

Retail inflation, as measured by Consumer Price Index fell to 5.18% y-o-y in February, as against forecast of a 5.53% and 5.61% in January.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had explained that 7540-7600 is an important resistance area a crossover of which is required for the fresh upmove.

The benchmark, after touching a high of 7584 in the initial trade, slipped to close at 7539.

7540-7600 continues to be the hurdle area a crossover of which would open up the space for the further upside till about 34-week moving average, which is currently placed around 7815.

Immediate support is placed around 7460, a sustained trading below which will generate a sell on the hourly chart and can take the benchmark to around 7300, where 34-DMA is placed.

NIFTY SET TO CHALLENGE 7550-7600 RESISTANCE AREA

NIFTY SET TO CHALLENGE 7550-7600 RESISTANCE AREA

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices soared 1.3%-1.8% on Friday, reacting to rise in oil prices and digesting Thursday's European Central Bank stimulus measures. The S&P 500 gained closed above psychologically key 2,000 level and crossed its 200-day moving average for the first time since Dec. 30. Dow also closed above its 200 DMA for the first time since Dec 30.

Nymex oil rose 66 cents or 1.7% to $38.50 a barrel following the International Energy Agency's report that said oil might have bottomed. Baker Hughes data showed U.S. rigs declined by six. 

Also boosting the sentiment was yuan's strongest midpoint fix against the dollar for the year so far at 6.4905 by th PBOC.

In U.S. economic news, February import prices declined 0.3%, while export prices fell 0.4%.

European markets climbed 1.7%-4.8%.

Gold fell $13 to $1259 an ounce.

For the week, US indices gained 1.2%-1.8%.

AT HOME

It turned out to be yet another day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended higher by a third of a percent after a rangebound but choppy trade. Sensex added 95 points to settle at 24718 while Nifty finished at 7510, up 24 points. BSE mid-cap index gained 0.1% while the small-cap index lost 0.2%. BSE FMCG index climbed 1.2%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.5% gain in Healthcare index. Metal and Utilities indices lost the most, down 0.7% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 378 cr and 932 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 378 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 433 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 67.04/$.

India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of January came in at -1.5%. December IIP has been revised to -1.2% against -1.3% reported earlier. This is the third consecutive month of decline led by manufacturing which slipped to -2.8% vs -2.4% month-on-month (MoM). Further, the April-January IIP data has slipped to 2.7% against 3.1% (YoY).

The Lok Sabha on Friday passed the Aadhaar bill to provide a unique identity to residents and give legal teeth to the government in ensuring that its subsidies and services directly reach the beneficiaries in entirety.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of 1%-2% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 60 points higher opening for our market.

Today's gap up opening would take the benchmark again in the 7550-7600 region which we have been talking about for quite some time.

7600 is the immediate previous top on the weekly chart a sustained trading above which would open up the space for next big upmove as next meaningful resistance will come around 7840 where 34-week moving average is placed.

7424 continues to be immediate support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

NIFTY AGAIN RESISTED NEAR 7540; 7424 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY AGAIN RESISTED NEAR 7540; 7424 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 ended little changed while Nasdaq lost 0.3% yesterday on the back of lower oil prices and volatility in the European markets.

European markets reversed sharp gains to end with cuts of 0.5%-2.3% following comments by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and a sharp slip in commodity prices.

ECB announced a range of measures including a cut to its main refinancing rate by 5 bps to 0.0 percent and a cut to its deposit rate by 10 bps to -0.4%. The bank also extended its monthly asset purchases from 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros.

Equities however reversed gains after the ECB President Draghi, at a conference following the policy decision, said he did not anticipate the need to reduce rates further, but added that new facts could change the situation. This dampened "risk-on" sentiment and the euro, which had earlier fallen to $1.08, reversed to $1.11. Dollar index fell more than a percent while Gold rallied $15 to $1273 an ounce.

Oil prices fell following reports that an OPEC meeting aimed at freezing output appeared unlikely to go ahead without Iran's participation. Nymex oil settled down 45 cents at $37.84 while Brent lost 2.5% to finish at $40.05 a barrel.

US weekly jobless claims declined 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000 for the week ended March 5, the lowest reading since mid-October.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices could not extend Wednesday's smart rebound and ended lower by about six tenth of a percent in yesterday's trade. Sensex lost 171 points to settle at 24623 while Nifty finished at 7486, down 46 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Except a 0.4% and 0.3% rise in BSE Metal and Basic Material indices respectively, all the sectoral indices ended in red with Capital Goods and Energy indices leading the tally, down 1.7% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1063 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 29 cr and 636 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 598 cr.

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 67.065/$.

The Union Cabinet yesterday approved a new Hydrocarbon Exploration & Licensing Policy that aims to boost exploration & production (E&P) activity and iron out issues faced by upstream oil companies. The new policy contains several norms that will smoothen the process of licensing to exploration, by steps such as offering a uniform license for all fuels such as natural gas, crude oil or shale. Explorers will also get freedom to price petroleum products procured from hard-to-explore deepwater fields as per market rates. Further, the Cabinet also approved extending licenses of 28 small- and medium-sized oil and gas fields.

Also approved was amendment in Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation Act to allow transfer of mining lease for captive mines, which will pave the way for merger and acquisition activities in the cement sector. Earlier, the act allowed transfer of mining lease for auctioned mines only.

Rajya Sabha yesterday passed the Real Estate Regulator (Regulation and Development) Bill, 10 years after it was tabled in the Parliament. The Bill has been drafted to protect the interest of consumers and proposes several measures for the same.  With the passage of the Bill, builders will now have to quote prices based on carpet area and not super built-up. Building plans cannot be changed (now) without consent from 66% of buyers. In the case of defaults or delays, the same rate of interest will be levied for promoters as well as buyers. The Bill also seeks to establish fast track dispute resolution mechanism.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is down a percent while Shanghai is lower by half a percent. Other Asian markets are little changed and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

As we have been mentioning, 7540 and 7550 were the bottoms made in September and December 2015 respectively and that is why we had advised booking profits in trading longs and wait for the decisive crossover of this hurdle before taking a fresh view.

The benchmark, after touching a high of 7547 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 7486, giving credence to above hypothesis.

7540-7550 continues to be immediate hurdle above which 7600, which is the immediate previous top on the weekly chart, would be the next resistance to eye. A decisive crossover of 7600 would open up the space for next big upmove as next meaningful resistance will come around 7840 where 34-week moving average is placed. 7424, the bottom made on Wednesday, is the immediate support, a breach of which would break the higher-top higher-bottom formation on the hourly chart and would pave the way for the further correction.

IIP for the month of January would be released today and is expected to show a contraction 0.15% as against contraction of 1.3% in the previous month.