8970 CONTINUES TO BE IMPORTANT HURDLE; 8880 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

8970 CONTINUES TO BE IMPORTANT HURDLE; 8880 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.1% each while Nadaq rose 0.3%, looking forward to a key speech from President Donald Trump. Dow gained for the 12^th straight day, marking the longest winning streak since 1987.

White House budget officials told reporters that Trump's first budget will call for a $54 billion increase in defense spending and a corresponding cut in what his administration deems lower priority programs.

Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in January, slightly above the expected 1.7% increase. Pending home sales dropped 2.8% in January to their lowest level in a year.

WTI oil gained 0.1% to $54.05 a barrel while Brent fell 0.1% to $55.93.

U.S. Treasury yields rose after hitting a five-week low on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year note yield at 2.37% and the two-year note yielding 1.2%. Dollar index erased earlier losses to trade 0.1% higher.

In Europe, CAC was unchanged, FTSE and DAX ended modestly higher while Italy soared 1.7%.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, Sensex and Nifty saw a sustained downward move through the session to end lower by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Sensex lost 80 points to settle at 28813 while Nifty finished at 8897, down 43 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however managed to end higher by 0.01% and 0.2% respectively. BSE Telecom index tumbled 2.8%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.4% cut in Bankex. Energy and Oil & Gas indices were the top gainers, putting on 1.8% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 146 cr, 157 cr and 258 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 264 cr.

Rupee appreciated 12 paise to end at 66.70/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

After achieving the major target of 8970 last week, Nifty has seen profit booking and closed at 8897 yesterday. As we have been mentioning, a decisive crossover of 8970 is required for a fresh upmove and 9119, the top made in March 2015, would be the immediate target and 10000 would be the eventual target if that happens.

Meanwhile, 8880 continues to be immediate support, a breach of which will generate a sell on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction.

Government will release GDP growth number for the December quarter, which is expected to show a figure of 6.1% as against 7.2% growth registered in the same quarter last year.

Trump is set to speak at a joint Congress session today, and markets will look for clues about the administration's plans for tax reform and deregulation.

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER ACHIEVING MAJOR TARGET OF 8970

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER ACHIEVING MAJOR TARGET OF 8970

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained upto 0.2% on Friday, with the Dow recording its 11th straight record close and its longest winning streak since 1992.

US treasuries rose with the benchmark 10-year note yield falling to 2.33% while the two-year note yield declined to 1.15%. Gold jumped $7 to $1258 per ounce, marking a three and a half month high.

WTI oil fell 46 cents to $53.99 a barrel on concerns over rising U.S. supplies after oilfield service firm Baker Hughes reported its weekly count of U.S. oil rigs topped 600 for the first time since October, 2015.

U.S. new home sales rose 3.7% in January, below the expected increase of 6.3%. Consumer sentiment hit 96.3 in February, slightly above an estimate of 96.

European markets fell 0.4%-1.2% on the back of a fall in commodities and a slew of underwhelming earnings reports.

For the week, Dow and S & P 500 gained 1% and 0.6% respectively while Nasdaq was up 0.1%. In Europe, FTSE and CAC lost -0.8% and 0.4% respectively but DAX gained 0.4%. In Asia, Shanghai soared 1.6%, Nikkei added 0.2% but Hang Seng fell 0.3%.

AT HOME

After gaining nearly six tenth of a percent, benchmark indices gave away most of the gains in late noon tumble to end just marginally higher. Sensex settled at 28893, up 28 points while Nifty added 13 points to finish at 8940. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Telecom and IT indices gained 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Energy and Utilities indices were the top losers, down 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 392 cr, 2431 cr and 37 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 445 cr.

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 66.82/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, extending the winning streak to fifth straight week.

BJP won 8 out of 10 municipal corporations of Maharashtra.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-1.3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower start for our market.

Nifty on Thursday touched a high of 8982, achieving the 8970 target we have been working with ever since 8560, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 8970-7893 fall, was taken out on 25th January.

The benchmark however could not sustain above that level and slipped to end the week at 8940.

As we have been mentioning, a decisive crossover of 8970 is required for the fresh upmove. If that happens, 9119, the top made in March 2015, would be the next target to eye. Meanwhile, immediate support on the hourly chart has move up to 8880, with the stop-loss of which existing longs can be held on to.

NIFTY NEARLY ACHIEVES MAJOR 8970 TARGET; 8830 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY NEARLY ACHIEVES MAJOR 8970 TARGET; 8830 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow gained 0.2% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.1% each yesterday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's previous meeting hinted that a rate hike coming "fairly soon."

Energy stocks lead decliners af US crude fell 1.4% to $53.59 a barrel.

Weekly mortgage applications fell 2% for the week ending Feb. 17 amid lackluster refinancing. Existing home sales rose 3.3% in January to a 10-year high.

Treasury yields fell with the 10-year yield around 2.41% after earlier hitting a near 2-week low of 2.391%. The 2-year yield held near 1.21%.

In Europe, FTSE, CAC and DAX gained 0.2%-0.4% but Italy and Spain tumbled 0.8% each. German Ifo business climate index for January rose to 111.0 and matched December's 33-month high. The 10-year German bund yield hit its lowest level in five weeks as geopolitical concerns remained.

AT HOME

After gaining about six tenth of a percent in the first half, Sensex and Nifty gave away nearly half of the gains in the second half to end higher by 0.36% and 0.2% respectively. Nevertheless, both the indices closed at their highest level since 8th September, 2016, marking a 5-1/2 month high. Sensex added 103 points to settle at 28865 while Nifty finished at 8927, up 19 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however lost 0.6% each. BSE Energy index soared 4.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.8% rise in Oil & Gas index. IT index was the top loser, down 1.7%, followed by 1.4% each cut in Utilities, Consumer Durable and Teck indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 259 cr and 272 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 306 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 918 cr.

Rupee depreciated 5 paise to end at 66.97/$.

Reliance Industries soared 11.2%, registering the biggest single-day gain in nearly eight years and also touching an eight-year high after Reliance Jio yesterday announced that it will end free data service and start charging its customers from 1 April.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading flat to modestly lower and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

Just to recall, we had been working with a major target of 8970 after 8560, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 8970-7893 fall, was taken out in late January. The benchmark touched a high of 8961 yesterday, nearly achieving this target and vindicating our view.

8970 is the top made in September 2016 and hence a major ceiling, a decisive crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. While 9119, the top made in March 2015, would be the immediate target if that happens, eventual target of this near 2-year consolidation breakout would come to around 10000.

Meanwhile, immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8830, which should serve as the stop-loss for existing longs.

NIFTY APPROACHING MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 8810

NIFTY APPROACHING MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 8810

WORLD MARKETS

US indices climbed 0.5%-0.6%, closing at record highs, following a key naming by the Trump administration and corporate earnings.

The White House, on Monday, announced that Lieutenant General H. R. McMaster will become the new national security advisor. McMaster replaces Michael Flynn, who resigned last week.

The flash read on the IHS Markit U.S. purchasing managers' index for February came in at 54.3, falling slightly from January's 14-month peak.

Dollar index gained half a percent to 101.44.

Oil prices rose with Brent crude up 0.9% to $56.66. U.S. crude March contract climbed 1.2% to $54.06. OPEC said it would be sticking to its agreement to cut production, adding that it hoped compliance from the deal would be higher in the future.

European markets, except a 0.3% lower FTSE, gained 0.4%-1.2% with DAX on the top. Euro zone composite Purchasing Managers Index for February came in at 56.0 – the highest level since April 2011. France reported a composite PMI of 56.2, well above  forecasts, while Germany also surged to a figure of 56.1.

AT HOME

After trading with negative bias in the first half, benchmark indices shot up in the noon trade to end higher by a third of a percent. Nifty added 29 points to settle at 8908, the highest close since 8th September 2016 and Sensex gained 100 points to finish at 28762, the highest close since 22nd September, 2016. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices added half a percent each. BSE Consumer Durable index soared 2.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1% higher Bankex. Telecom index tumbled 2.4% to become top loser, followed by half a percent lower Teck index.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1436 cr and 1017 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 341 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1535 cr.

Currency market was shut on account of Municipal Corporation elections in Mumbai.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a marginally lower Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we have been working with a major target of 8970, which was the top made in September 2016, after 8560, the 61.8% retracement level of the 8970-7893 fall, was taken out.

Nifty yesterday touched a high of 8921 before closing at 8908, moving towards this target.

However, Nifty is now approaching a major resistance area as 8930 is where the trendline adjoining tops made in March 2015 and September 2016 is placed and 8970 is the top made in September 2016. This makes 8930-8970 a major resistance area, a decisive crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

Therefore, traders would do well to book some profit in long positions and trail stop-loss in remaining ones to 8810, which is now the immediate support on the hourly chart.

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 8790

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 8790

WORLD MARKETS                             

US markets were shut yesterday for the President's Day Holiday.

European markets ended mixed with 0.6% higher DAX, flat FTSE and modestly lower CAC and Italy. Euro zone consumer confidence fell to minus 6.2 percent during February, compared to minus 4.8 for January.

Oil prices rose with Brent up 0.7% at $56.18 a barrel. U.S. crude added 0.5% to $53.69. Media reports suggested top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia's crude oil shipments fell in December to 8.014 million barrels per day (bpd) from 8.258 million bpd in November.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, benchmark indices saw a sustained northward move through the session to end higher by two-third of a percent, closing at five-month high. Sensex soared 193 points to settle at 28662 while Nifty finished at 8879, up 57 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices added 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. BSE Metal index climbed 2%, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.6% each rise in IT and Teck indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 433 cr and 1141 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 540 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 828 cr.

Rupee appreciated 8 paise to end at 66.92/$.

TCS announced buyback of upto 5.6 cr equity shares, representing 2.85% of total paid-up equity share capital of the company for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs 16000 cr. The buyback price has been set at Rs 2850 per share.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.9% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 8900-8970 region, where the trendline adjoining tops made in March 2015 and September 2016 is placed, continues to be the major target as well as the resistance area.

The benchmark touched a high of 8886 before closing at 8879, moving towards this target area.

Meanwhile, immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8790, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs can be held on to.

8900-8970 IS THE MAJOR RESISTANCE AREA; 8750 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

8900-8970 IS THE MAJOR RESISTANCE AREA; 8750 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.2% and 0.4% respectively on Friday.

U.S. Treasuries rose, with the benchmark 10-year note yield falling to 2.42% and the short-term two-year note yield declining to 1.19%.

European markets, except a 0.3% higher FTSE and flat DAX, fell 0.4%-0.6%. According to recent polls, Le Pen — France's far-right, anti-European Union candidate — is the favorite to win the first round of voting, scheduled for April. French bond yields ticked higher on the news, pushing the spread between 10-year French sovereigns and German bunds above 70 basis points.

For the week, US indices gained 1.3%-1.7%. In Europe, FTSE gained 0.3% while DAX and CAC climbed 0.8% and 1.5% respectively. In Asia Nikkei was down 0.2% but Shanghai and Hang Seng soared 1% and 2.3% respectively.

AT HOME

After opening with a big gap of a percent and third, benchmark indices gave away more than half of the gains through the volatile session to end higher by about half a percent. Sensex settled at 28469, up 167 points while Nifty added 44 points to finish at 8822. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Healthcare and Oil & Gas indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 1.6% and 1.4% respectively while IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.9% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 8043 cr and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 5632 cr, most of which was on account of HDFC Bank after RBI notified that the aggregate foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank had gone below the prescribed limit stipulated under the extant FDI policy. FIIs net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 719 cr and 5632 cr respectively.

Rupee appreciated 6 paise to end at 67.01/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, extending the winning streak to fourth straight week.

GST Council, on Saturday, approved the Draft Compensation Bill and anti-profiteering clause. The Council will now meet on March 4 and 5 to give final touches to the CGST, IGST and SGST laws.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Shanghai and Hang Seng are up about half a percent, other Asian markets are modestly lower and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

After trading in 8825-8710 range for 9 sessions, Nifty, on Friday, touched a high of 8896 in the initial trade, crossing this congestion zone, but cooled-off to end the session at 8822. Readers would recall that we have been saying that 8900-8970, where the trendline adjoining tops made in March 2015 and September 2016 is placed, is the major resistance area. A decisive crossover of 8970 is required for the fresh upmove.

Meanwhile, trendline adjoining major bottoms on the daily chart lands support around 8750, with the stop-loss of which trading longs can be held on to.

Ambuja Cements will report its quarterly earnings today.

US markets will remain shut today for Presidents Day holiday.

AFTER HOLDING ON TO 8715 SUPPORT, NIFTY SET TO RETEST 8825 HURDLE

AFTER HOLDING ON TO 8715 SUPPORT, NIFTY SET TO RETEST 8825 HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow gained 0.4% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.1% to break seven-day winning streak.

Economic data was strong. Weekly jobless claims held around their lowest levels in more than 40 years and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index hit its highest level since January 1984.

U.S. Treasuries rose with the benchmark 10-year yield falling to 2.45% and the short-term two-year note yield holding around 1.21%. Dollar index fell 0.7%.

US crude rose 25 cents to $53.36 a barrel.

European markets, except a 0.2% higher Italy, fell 0.3%-0.5%. Minutes from January's European Central Bank meeting showed that policymakers think that it's too early to withdraw any monetary stimulus. Car registrations in Europe rose 10.2% y-o-y in January, accelerating from a 3% rise in December. In France, unemployment rate dropped to 10% at the end of last year.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, Sensex and Nifty saw a sustained northward move through the session to end with gains of 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Sensex added 146 points to settle at 28301 while Nifty finished at 8778, up 53 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. Except a 0.9% lower FMCG index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Healthcare and Realty indices leading the tally, up 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 226 cr, 103 cr and 56 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyrs to the tune of Rs 249 crr.

Rupee depreciated 17 paise to end at 67.07/$.

BHEL and Idea will be replaced by Indiabulls Housing Finance and IOC in Nifty from March 31.

RBI yesterday notified that the aggregate foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank has gone below the prescribed limit stipulated under the extant FDI policy. This means that foreign investors can buy more shares in HDFC Bank.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto half a percent but SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

Nifty, after retesting the 8715 level, which has been the bottom in the last 9-day 8825-8715 consolidation phased, rebounded yesterday to end at 8778 and is set to open higher today.

After today's positive start, benchmark would be close to the higher end of this consolidation phase placed at 8825, upon decisive crossover of which, 8970, the top made in September 2016, would be the next major target to eye.

Traders should keep stop-loss of 8825 in short positions.

NIFTY BREAKS 8715 SUPPORT; STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 8825

NIFTY BREAKS 8715 SUPPORT; STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 8825

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 added half a percent each while Nasdaq gained 0.6% for a fresh record high on continued optimism over President Donald Trump's economic agenda of tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

the consumer price index (CPI) rose a more-than-expected 0.6% in January, the largest monthly gain since February 2013. At 2.5%, y-o-y rise was the biggest since March 2012. January retail sales rose 0.4% after an upwardly revised 1% gain in December. Business inventories for December rose 0.4% and the February read on U.S. home builder sentiment showed a decline.

U.S. Treasury yields spiked following data releases, with the benchmark 10-year note yield breaking above 2.5%, while the shorter-term two-year note yield climbed to 1.26%. Dollar index, after touching a high of 101.76, slipped to end at 101.09. Gold rose $8 to $1233 an ounce.

US oil fell 9 cents to $53.11 a barrel.

European markets, except a 0.7% lower Italy, gained between 0.2%-0.8%. U.K. unemployment data met forecasts with a rate of 4.8%.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty plunged 0.65% and 0.8% respectively, suffering the worst fall in two-weeks and also closing at two-week low. Sensex slipped 184 points to settle at 28156 while Nifty finished at 8725, down 68 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. Except a 0.1% higher FMCG index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Realty and Industrial indices leading the tally, down 3.5% and 3.1% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 226 cr and 689 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1667 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 249 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 66.90/$.

Cabinet yesterday cleared merger of SBI's associated banks with SBI.

India's trade deficit narrowed to $9.84 bn in January from $10.37 in December.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

Nifty yesterday touched a low of 8713, breaking the lower end of the 8715-8825 consolidation phase by a bit, but rebounded immediately to end above it at 8725. A sustained trading below 8715 will also break a trendline support on daily chart and next meaningful target to eye in that case would be around 8540, the bottom made on the budget day.

Nevertheless, a sell has been generated on the hourly chart and traders can hold on to short positions with the stop-loss of 8825.

STUCK IN 8825-8715 RANGE

STUCK IN 8825-8715 RANGE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.3%-0.4% to scale yet another record high after digesting remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

Yellen, in prepared remarks to Congress, said that waiting too long to raise interest rates would be "unwise", given the rise in inflation and economic growth.

U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher following Yellen's remarks, with the benchmark 10-year note yields around 2.4725% and the short-term two-year note yield advancing to 1.2383%. Dollar index, after touching a low of 100.70, recovered to end at 101.23, marking a three-week  high.

The NFIB small business index, which measures small-business confidence, hit 105.9, the best read since December 2004.

Copper fell 1.4% on reports that striking workers at Chile's massive Escondida copper mine and BHP, which operates the mine, have agreed to renew talks on Wednesday.

In Europe, FTSE and DAX ended modestly lower while France and Italy gained 0.2% and 0.6% respectively. The euro area grew 0.4% q-o-q in the last three months of 2016, after a preliminary estimate of 0.5%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended modestly lower after a choppy trade, with Nifty breaking four-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 28339, down 12 points while Nifty lost 13 points to finish at 8792. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.6% each. BSE Basic Material and Auto indices tumbled 1.1% each, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Telecom index soared 1.8% to become top gainer, followed by 0.3% rise in Teck index.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 6 cr and 690 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 1321 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 3 cr.

Rupee appreciated 8 paise to end at 66.93/$.

India's wholesale inflation shot up to a 30-month high of 5.25% in January from 3.39% in December.

Tata Motors third quarter consolidated net profit plunged 96% y-o-y to Rs 112 cr, impacted by big loss in domestic business and operational weakness in JLR. Revenue fell 4.3% to Rs 68541 cr. Operating profit fell 41.7% to Rs 5161 cr and margin contracted by 490 bps to 7.6%.

Sun Pharma reported a 5% dip in net profit at Rs 1472 cr on higher taxes. Revenue was up 8% at Rs 7683 cr. EBIDTA margin declined to 29% from 34.3% sequentially.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up more than a percent, Shanghai is marginally in the red and other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto half a percent. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start.

Nifty has been trading in a narrow 8825-8715 range for last seven sessions and a decisive breach of this range, on either side, is required for a fresh move. Above 8825, 8900-8970 would be the next major target as well as the resistance area as we have been mentioning for quite some time.

Meanwhile, traders can hold on to existing longs with the stop-loss of 8715.

YET ANOTHER DAY OF CONSOLIDATION; HOLD LONGS WITH STOP-LOSS OF 8700

YET ANOTHER DAY OF CONSOLIDATION; HOLD LONGS WITH STOP-LOSS OF 8700

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow climbed 0.7% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq added 0.5% each yesterday to new record highs on persistent optimism over Trump's economic agenda.

Dollar index gained 0.2% to a three-week high. U.S. Treasuries fell, with the benchmark 10-year note yield rising to 2.431% and the short-term two-year note yield advancing to 1.19%.

Copper prices hit its highest levels since May 2015 on limited supply after strikes at BHP Billiton's Escondida and Freeport McMoran's Indonesian Grasberg mine,

Crude fell on the stronger dollar and indications of rising U.S. shale output with Brent down 2% to $55.59 a barrel and WTI down 1.7% to $52.93.

European markets gained 0.3%-1.2%. Forecast from European Commission expects Eurozone to grow at 1.6% in 2017,  compared to 1.7% in 2016 but bounce back to 1.8% in 2018.

AT HOME

After falling nearly half a percent in the first half, benchmark indices recouped all the losses and some more later to end marginally higher. Sensex settled at 28352, up 17 points while Nifty added 11 points to finish at 8805.  BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however lost 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. BSE IT and Teck indices added 0.9% and 0.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Consumer Durable indices were the top losers, down 1.1% and 1% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 307 cr and 754 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 393 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 171 cr.

Rupee depreciated 14 paise to end at 67.02/$.

India’s retail inflation rate slowed to 3.17% in January, from 3.41% in December -- the lowest reading since November, 2014.

Hindalco reported standalone net profit of Rs 321 cr against loss of Rs 32 crore in year-ago quarter. Revenue rose 13.8% to Rs 9915 cr. Operating profit shot up 75.5% to Rs 1185 cr and margin expanded by 420 bps to 11.9%.

OUTLOOK

China's January CPI has come in at 2.5%., slightly higher tha expected 2.4% mark and PPI has come in at 6.9% as against expectation of 6.3%.

Today morning Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

Nifty, after a roller coaster session, ended 11 points higher at 8805 yesterday and is set to open higher today, moving towards the major target area of 8900-8970 that we have been working with ever since 8560, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 8970-7894 fall, was taken out.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 8700, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

Tata Motors and Sun Pharma will report their quarterly earnings today.

8970 CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR TARGET; 8680-8700 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

8970 CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR TARGET; 8680-8700 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.3%-0.5% on Friday, posting yet another record high on continued optimism over Trump's promised tax plans. Energy, materials and industrials lead the advancers.

WTI crude rose 1.6% to $53.86 per barrel after the International Energy Agency reported that OPEC members' cuts in January equated to 90% of the agreed volumes.

Import prices rose 0.4% in January, more than the expected 0.2% increase. Export prices rose 0.1% last month, in line with estimates. Preliminary consumer sentiment for February came in at 95.7, below the expected 98.5.

U.S. 10-year note yield rose to 2.409%t, while the short-term two-year yield hovered around 1.2%. Dollar index gained about 0.1%.

Main European markets ended with gains of upto 0.4% but Italy and Spain fell 0.4% and 0.6%.

Chinese trade figures topped expectations.

For the week, US equities added 0.8%-1.2%. In Europe, CAC and DAX rose 0.1% each while FTSE climbed 1%. In Asian, Nikkei soared 2.4% while Shanghai and Hang Seng were up 1.8% and 1.9% respectively.

AT HOME

Sensex ended flat while Nifty finished 0.2% higher after a rangebound but choppy session. Sensex settled at 28334, up 5 points while Nifty added 15 points to finish at 8794. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.3% while small-cap index gained 0.1%. BSE IT and Teck indices climbed 2.1% and 1.6% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare and FMCG indices were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 505 cr, 243 cr and 76 cr respectively. DIIS were net sellers to the tune of Rs 225 cr.

Rupee appreciated 4 paise to end at 66.88/$.

SBI reported a 134% y-o-y jump in Q3 net profit at Rs 2610 cr. NII grew by 7.7% to Rs 14755 cr. Net interest margin fell 19 bps y-o-y and 2 bps q-o-q to 3.03%. Gross NPA ratio rose to 7.23% from 7.14% and Net NPA ratio inched up to 4.24% from 4.19% q-o-q. Fresh slippages stood at Rs 10400 cr as against Rs 11900 cr q-o-q.

M & M reported 5.7% dip in net profit at Rs 801 cr. Revenue rose 1.2% to Rs 10587 cr. Operating profit fell 0.1% to Rs 1449 cr and margin contracted by 20 bps to 13.7%.

BoB reported a net profit of Rs 253 cr against loss of Rs 3342 cr in same quarter last year. NII grew by 16% to Rs 3134 cr. Gross NPA as a percentage of gross advances increased 5 bps to 11.40% but net NPAs declined 3 bps to 5.43% q-o-q. Slippages rose sharply to Rs 4100 cr from Rs 2800 cr.

Idea posted a consolidated net loss of Rs 386 cr against a profit of Rs 90 cr in previous quarter. Consolidated revenue fell 7% to Rs 8663 cr. Operating profit slipped 10.4% q-o-q to Rs 2165 cr and margin contracted by 100 bps to 25%.

OUTLOOK

North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the sea on Sunday morning, the first such test since President Trump was elected.

Data from Japan showed that economy grew at an annualized rate of 1% in the fourth-quarter, supported by solid exports and capital expenditure.

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.4%-0.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we have been working with a major target of 8970 after 61.8% retracement level of the 8970-7894 fall, placed at 8560, was taken out and have been advising holding on to trading longs with a trailing stop-loss.

The benchmark, on Friday, touched a high of 8822 before closing at 8794 and is set to open higher today.

8970 continues to be the major upside target to eye. On the way down 8700-8680 continues to be immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

Hindalco and HPCL will report their quarterly earnings today.

CPI for January will be released today and is expected to be at 3.21%, down from 3.41% in December. However, core inflation is expected to be at 5% as against 4.9%.

NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION; SBI EARNINGS IN FOCUS

NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION; SBI EARNINGS IN FOCUS

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.6% each, with all three key indices hitting record high, on the back of President Donald Trump saying he would soon announce a "phenomenal" tax plan in the next few weeks.

Weekly jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 234,000, below a consensus estimate of 250,000. Wholesale trade data for December showed a 1% increase in inventories.

Dollar index gained about half a percent to 100.67. US treasuries fell with the benchmark 10-year note yield rising to 2.39% and the two-year note yield around 1.18%.

WTI crude added 66 cents to $53 a barrel while Brent rose 51 cents to $55.63.

European markets added 0.6%-1.2%. French yields hit a two-week low amid growing political risk as far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen gains more traction.

AT HOME

After rising nearly half a percent in the opening trade, benchmark indices immediately plunged a percent from the top of the day but recouped quite a bit of the lost ground through rest of the session to end 0.1% higher. Sensex settled at 28330, up 40 points while Nifty added 9 points to finish at 8778. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% each. BSE IT and Teck indices soared 1.6% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Metal index and Bankex were the top losers, down 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 357 cr and 600 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 165 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 380 cr.

Rupee appreciated 26 paise to end at 66.93/$.

Lupin posted a 21% y-o-y increase in third quarter net profit at Rs 633 cr. Revenue rose 26% to Rs 4483 cr. EBIDTA margin stood at 27.1%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is up more than 2%, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

Nifty has been consolidating for past three session after touching a high of 8814 on Monday. Yesterday, the benchmark, after touching a high of 8821, slipped sharply to touch a low of 8724 but rebounded to end at 8778 and is set to open higher today.

8900-8970 region where the trendline adjoining tops made in March 2015 and September 2016 is placed, continues to be major upside target as well as the resistance to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 8700, with the stop-loss of which existing longs can be held on to.

SBI, M & M, GAIL, Sun TV and BoB will report their quarterly earnings today.