Tuesday, March 31, 2020

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 8185

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 8185

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 3.2%-3.6% as President Donald Trump followed last week's massive fiscal stimulus package by extending his stay-at-home guidelines, leaving markets hopeful the economic impact of the coronavirus could still be contained.

Johnson & Johnson said human testing of its experimental vaccine for the coronavirus will begin by September and it could be available for emergency use authorization in early 2021.

WTI crude slipped 6.6% to $20.09 per barrel and  Brent fell 8.7% to  $22.76, their lowest levels in 18 years as demand continues to evaporate, and as OPEC+ production cuts expire beginning April 1.

Main European markets gained 0.6%-1.9%.

AT HOME

Week started on a weak note as benchmark indices tumbled four and a half percent, with the Nifty breaking four-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 28440, down 1375 points while Nifty lost 379 points to finish at 8281. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed, losing 2.1% and 1.8% respectively. Except 1.1% and 0.7% higher Healthcare and FMCG indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Realty and Finance indices being the top losers, down 7% each.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 4364 cr and 967 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 2012 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3550 cr.

Rupee depreciated 76 paise to end at 75.65/$.

OUTLOOK

China's official manufacturing PMI in March came in at 52, up from a record low of 35.7 hit in February and defying expectation of a contraction.

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.6%-2.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 150 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 9038, the top made last week, would now be the immediate hurdle to eye, while 8180 was the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

Nifty plunged to touch a low of 8244 before closing at 8281 and is set to open above 8400 today

9039, the top made on Friday, continues to be immediate hurdle to eye.

8185 continues to be immediate support on hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

Monday, March 30, 2020

9038 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 8180 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


9038 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 8180 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices tumbled 3.4%-4.1% on Friday on worries over the economic damage by coronavirus as the U.S. became the country with the most confirmed cases.

As on Friday, global cases of the coronavirus surged to more than 542,700 with at least 85,996 in the U.S. which made the U.S. overtake China as the country with the most confirmed cases in the world. President Donald Trump held a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, saying the two countries are “working closely together” to fight the pandemic. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for the coronavirus.

The House approved the historically massive $2 trillion coronavirus relief package on Friday and send it to President Trump to be signed.

Brent curde fell 5.1% to $24.99 per barrel while U.S. crude slipped $1.09, or 4.8%, to settle at $21.51 per barrel.

European markets fell 3.2%-5.2%, monitoring the spread of coronavirus while policymakers scrambled to agree on a unified response.

For the week, Dow surged 12.8%, its biggest weekly gain since 1938. The S&P 500, at 10.3% and Nasdaq at 9.1% had their best week since March 2009.

AT HOME

After rising more than 4% at the open, benchmark indices gave away all the gains through the volatile session to end mixed. Sensex settled at 29815, down 131 points while Nifty finished at 8660, up 18 points. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.3% while small-cap index rose 0.3%. BSE Telecom index tumbled 5.2%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 2.4% lower Auto index. Bankex and Metal index were the top gainers, up 1% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 356 cr and 482 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 29 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1704 cr.  However, FII figure included Rs 2200 cr on account fo 2.5% stake sell in HDFC Life by Standard Life.

Rupee appreciated 26 paise to end at 74.89/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty ended lower by 0.3% and 1% respectively, extending the losing streak to sixth straight week, but rebounding more than 15% from intraweek lows.

Reserve Bank of India announced a host of measures aimed at minimising the damage from Covid-19.
-The MPC decided by 4-2 majority to reduce repo rate by 75 basis points to 4.4%. The reverse repo rate was cut by 90 bps to 4%, creating an asymmetrical corridor.
-A moratorium of three months of EMIs on all outstanding loans was announced.
The apex bank also announced following three measures that will make available a total Rs 3,74,000 crore to the country's financial system.
-Auction of targeted long term repo operations of 3-year tenor for total amount Rs 1,00,000 crore at floating rate.
— Reduction of CRR for all banks by 100 basis points. Will release Rs 1,37,000 crore across banking system.
— Accommodation under Marginal Standing Facility to be increased from 2% from SLR to 3% with immediate effect till June 30. It will release Rs 1.37 lakh crore into the system.

Moody's Investors Service cut India's growth forecasts for 2020 calendar year to 2.5% from 5.3%.

OUTLOOK

US President Donald Trump on Sunday extended the national social distancing guidelines to April 30 after suggesting that the coronavirus death rate would likely peak in two weeks.

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 1.6%-4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 200 points lower start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that 8883, the top made the previous Friday, was the upside target/resistance to eye upon crossover of which 9450, the 50% retracement level of the 11390-7511 fall seen since 5th March, would be the next target to eye.

Nifty opened above 8883 hurdle and touch a high of 9038 but slipped from there to end at 8660 but is set to open below 8500 today.

9038, the top made last week, would now be the immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 9134, 9390 and 9970, the 33%, 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the entire 12430-7511 fall, would be subsequent levels to eye.

8180 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

Friday, March 27, 2020

9450 ABOVE 8883; 8160 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


9450 ABOVE 8883; 8160 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 5.6%-6.4%, extending the winning streak to third straight day and shrugging off the record-breaking initial jobless claims while the Senate passed a massive economic stimulus bill amid the coronavirus outbreak. Dow had its bets three-day surge since 1931.

Jobless benefit claims soared to 3.28 million last week, highest so far. That number blew past the Great Recession peak of 665,000 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.

After the Senate unanimously approved a $2 trillion economic relief package, the bill will now head to the House.

WTI crude slipped 7.7%, or $1.89, to settle at $22.60 per barrel, while Brent crude fell $1.01, or 3.69%, to trade at $26.43 per barrel.

European markets rose 0.7%-2.5%. The Bank of England on held rates steady and promised more asset purchases if needed to cushion the economic blow from the virus.


AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty climbed 4.9% and 3.9% respectively, extending the winning streak to third consecutive day. Sensex settled at 29947, up 1410 points while Nifty added 323 points to finish at 8641. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 3.5% and 3.7% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Telecom and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 10% and 7.2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 485 cr, 360 cr and 256 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 770 cr.

Rupee appreciated 73 paise to end at 75.15/$.

For the March derivative series, Nifty fell 25.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 1%-2.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 100 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 8377 was the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which will confirm a "buy" on hourly and 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next upside target if that happens.

Nifty, crossed 8377 hurdle and surged all the way to 8749 before closing at 8641 and is set to open near 8700 today.

8883, the top made last Friday, continues to be upside target/resistance to eye. Above 8883, 9450, the 50% retracement level of the 11390-7511 fall seen since 5th March, would be the next target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed at 8120, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

RBI governor will address media at 10 am today. Some measures that can be announced/expected are pushing back repayment deadline, extra credit lines for cash strapped companies and window/line of credit for NBFCs and Mutual Funds.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

8883 ABOVE 8377; 7714, 7511 ARE SUPPORTS


8883 ABOVE 8377; 7714, 7511 ARE SUPPORTS

WORLD MARKETS

After gaining more than 5%, DJIA and S & P 500 slipped in last hour of trade to end higher by 2.4% and 1.2% respectively while Nasdaq ended with cut of 0.4%.

Initial surge happened after White House and Senate agreed on a $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill early Wednesday morning. But a tweet from Sen. Bernie Sanders that "Unless Republican Senators drop their objections to the coronavirus legislation, I am prepared to put a hold on this bill until stronger conditions are imposed on the $500 billion corporate welfare fund" spooked the markets towards the session end.

Brent crude rose 29 cents, or 1%, to $27.44 per barrel while WTI gained 48 cents, or 2%, to settle at $24.49 per barrel, extending the rising streak to third consecutive day.

European markets gained 1.7%-4.5%. Germany's Ifo business climate index fell to 86.1 in March, lower than expectations of 87.7 and down from 96.0 in February and marking since the country’s reunification in 1990. UK CPI inflation for February fell to 1.7% from 1.8% in January.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty soared 7% and 6.6% respectively, marking their biggest single-day gain after 18th May 2009. Sensex settled at 28535, up 1861 points while Nifty finished at 8317, up 516 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 3.5% and 2.8% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Energy index leading the tally, up 10.2%, followed by 8.6% higher Finance and Bankex indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1893 cr and 45 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 547 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 738 cr.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is off 4% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are off 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points lower start for our market.

After Nifty rebounded from our indicated 7500 support on Tuesday, in yesterday's report we had said that the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart had moved lower to 8365.

Nifty, after touching a high of 8376, eased a bit to end at 8317 and is set to open near 8250 today.

8377, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which will confirm a "buy" on hourly chart after a long while and would pave the way for further upmove. 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next upside target if that happens.

7715, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support below which 7511, the bottom made on Tuesday, would be the next crucial support.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

7500, 7350 CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTS TO EYE; 8365 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE


7500, 7350 CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTS TO EYE; 8365 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 8%-11.4%, with the Dow posting its best one-day percentage gain in 87 years, on hopes that Congress would pass a massive $2 trillion stimulus bill to shield the economy from the coronavirus pandemic. S & P 500 had its best day since October 2008.

Reports that the outbreak was peaking in Europe also boosted the sentiment. Both new cases and deaths have dropped for two days in Italy, and the head of Germany’s public health institute said the infections rate in Europe’s largest economy was leveling off.

IHS Markit’s U.S. manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.2 in March from 50.7 in February, while the service PMI sank to 39.1 from 49.9, the lowest level recorded since data became available in October 2009. New residential home sales for February fell 4.4% to a annual rate of 765,000 from January’s revised level of 800,000.

Brent crude gained 22 cents to $27.27 per barrel, while WTI futures rose 65 cents, or 2.8%, to $24.01.

European markets climbed 8%-11%. Eurozone composite PMI nosedived to 31.4 in March from 51.6 in February, leaving the index at its lowest on record.

AT HOME

After falling more than a percent in first hour, Sensex and Nifty climbed nearly 4% from the bottom of the day to end higher by 2.7% and  2.5% respectively. Sensex added 692 points to settle at 26674 while Nifty finished at 7801, up 190 points. BSE mid-cap index gained 1.6% while small-cap index ended unchanged. BSE IT and Teck indices soared 7% and 5.8% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, down 2% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 2153 cr and 1156 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 3197 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1554 cr.

Rupee appreciated 34 paise to end at 75.88/$.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announce a nationwide, 21 day, lockdown starting yesterday midnight.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a slew of measures for extension of statutory and regulatory compliances with respect to Income Tax, GST and IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code)  in view of the coronavirus pandemic spreading its wings and impacting the economy. She also said that the Economic Task Force will soon announce an economic relief package to deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 2%-6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 150 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 7500-7340 continued to be next support zone as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008.

Nifty, after touching a low of 7511, rebounded to end at 7801 and is set to open below 7700 today.

7500, 7340 continues to be support to eye as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008. If 7340 breaks, 6825, the bottom made in February 2016, would be the next support.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 8365, upon crossover of which 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next target/resistance to eye.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

8460, 8883 ARE HURDLES; 7500, 7350 SUPPORTS


8460, 8883 ARE HURDLES; 7500, 7350 SUPPORTS

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 tumbled 3% each while Nasdaq fell 0.3%  as Senate failed for the second time to clear a bill that would authorize giant fiscal spending to stimulate the economy.

Markets had opened higher after the Federal Reserve announced an open-ended asset purchase program. The central bank said the program will run in the “amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”

WTI gained 3.23% to settle at $23.36 per barrel while Brent crude rose 0.6% to $27.18 per barrel.

European markets fell 1.1%-3.8%.

AT HOME

Friday's rebound proved deceptive as Sensex and Nifty collapsed 13% each, marking biggest single-day fall ever, and closing at the lowest level in 39 months and 4 years respectively. Sensex settled at 25981, down 3934 points while Nifty lost 1135 points to finish at 7610. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices too tumbled 13% each to close at the lowest level in 5.5 years and 6 years respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Bankex and Finance indices leading the losses, down 16.8% and 16.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 2989 cr and 793 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 737 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1082 cr.

Rupee tumbled 112 paise to close at 76.30/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 2%-6%, US futures are up nearly 3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 350 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 7832, the bottom made last week, was the important immediate support, below which, 7500-7340 would be next support zone.

Nifty broke 7832 support and plunged all the way to 7583 before closing at 7610 and is set to open above 7900 today.

7500-7340 continues to be next support zone as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 8460, upon crossover of which, 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next resistance to eye.

Monday, March 23, 2020

7500-7340 BELOW 7832; 8883 IMMEDIATE HURDLE


7500-7340 BELOW 7832; 8883 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

After rising more than 2%, US indices nosedived nearly 6% from the top of the day in late trade to end with cuts of 3.8%-4.6% on Friday.

The reversal was on the back of a number of factors, including a stay-at-home order for New York State, a swift reversal in crude prices and a strengthening dollar. News reports that a clearing firm at the CME Group was unable to meet its capital requirements, also weiged on the sentiment.

US crude plunged $2.79, or 11.1%, to $22.43 per barrel while Brent fell $1.49 or 5.2%, to settle at $26.98.

European markets gained between 0.8%-5% with CAC leading the gains.

For the week, Dow nosedived 17% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 11.5% and 12.6% respectively, posting their worst weekly performances since the financial crisis in 2008.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty climbed 6% each on Friday, breaking four-day losing streak. Senex settled at 29915, up 1627 points while Nifty finished at 8745, up 482 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 4.2% and 4% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Energy and Oil & Gas indices leading the tally, up 10% and 9% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 3346 cr and 1051 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 2428 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2431 cr.

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to end at 75.18/$.

For the week, benchmark indices plunged 12.2% each, their biggest weekly fall since the week ended 24th October 2008 and closing at three year low.

SEBI on Friday halved position limits for certain stock futures, restricted short-selling of index derivatives and raised margin rates for some shares in a bid to curb "abnormally high" volatility.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, US futures are down nearly 4% after a massive funding package to combat the impact of coronavirus did not get enough votes in a key Senate procedural vote Sunday evening. Heng Seng and Shanghai are down 4.7% and 2.3% respectively, Nikkei is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting nearly 1000 points lower start for our market.

In Thursday's report we had said that 8020, where 500-week moving average was placed, was the crucial support to eye. Nifty, on Thursday, after touching a low of 7832, rebounded to end at 8263. On Friday we had said that 8600, 8995 and 9390, the 33%, 50% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 10160-7832 fall, were the resistance levels to eye. The benchmark, after touching a high of 8883, closed at 8745 but is set to open below 8000 today.

7832, the bottom made last week, is the important immediate support to eye. If that breaks, 7500-7340 would be next support zone, as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008.

8883, the top made on Friday, would now act as the immediate hurdle.

Friday, March 20, 2020

7832 IS THE SUPPORT; 8600, 9000 HURDLES


7832 IS THE SUPPORT; 8600, 9000 HURDLES

WORLD MARKETS

After falling more than 3% in the initial trade, US indices saw a sustained upward move through the session to end with gains of 0.5%-2.3%, with Nasdaq leading the gains.

Energy stock climbed after WTI crude rallied 23.8%, its biggest one-day move ever, to $25.22 per barrel. Brent futures gained 14.4% to $28.47 per barrel.

The dollar index jumped 1.5% to 102.67, its highest level since January 2017.

The European Central Bank announced a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program that will deploy €750 billion ($819 billion) to purchase securities to help support the European economy. Purchases will be conducted until the end of 2020 and include a variety of assets including government debt.

The Bank of England announced another surprise interest rate cut on and ratcheted up its bond-buying program, in an effort to offset the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

European markets gained 1.4%-2.7%. German ifo Business Climate Index plummeted from 96.0 in February to 87.7 in March, the biggest drop since 1991 and bringing the index to its lowest level since August 2009.

AT HOME

After plunging more than 7% in the initial trade, Sensex and Nifty  recouped more than half of the losses through the session to end lower by 2% and 2.4% respectively to close at fresh three year low. Sensex settled at 28288, down 581 points while Nifty lost 205 points to finish at 8263. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 3.7% and 4.5% respectively. Except a 1.7% higher Telecom index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Metal and Capital Goods indices leading the losses, down 7.2% and 6.2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 4623 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 45 cr and 1096 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 4367 cr.

Rupee depreciated 82 paise to end at 75.08/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.7%-2.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 8300, where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in December 2011 and August 2013 was placed, was the next support to eye, below which 8020, where 500-week moving average is placed, would be the next crucial and major support.

Nifty achieved 8020 target and went further lower to 7832, from where it rebounded sharply to end at 8263. The benchmark might start near 8200 today.

7832, the low made yesterday, is the support to eye. If 7832 gives way, 7500, where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed, would be the next support.

8600, 8995 and 9390, the 33%, 50% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 10160-7832 fall, are the resistance levels to eye.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

8300, 8020 SUPPORTS TO EYE; 9300 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE


8300, 8020 SUPPORTS TO EYE; 9300 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices tumbled 4.7%-6.3%, with the Dow closing below 20,000 mark for the first time since February 2017. This was after a steep rebound of nearly 5% from the bottom of the day in last hour or so which happened after the Senate obtained the votes to pass a coronavirus relief plan to expand paid leave.

WTI crude collapsed 24.4%, or $6.58, to settle at $20.37 per barrel, its lowest level since Feb. 2002. Brent shed 14.1%, or $4.07, to trade at $24.67, its lowest level since 2003.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.21% yesterday after trading around 0.77% midday Tuesday before details of the potential stimulus emerged.

European markets fell 4%-5.9%. The European Central Bank announced a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that will use €750 billion (approx. $821 billion) to purchase securities to help support the European economy.

AT HOME

Bloodbath on the street continued as Sensex and Nifty plunged 5.6% each to close at the lowest level in 3 years and 38 month respectively. Sensex settled at 28869, down 1710 points while Nifty finished at 8468, down 498 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 5.5% and 6.2% respectively to close at the lowest level in 4-year and 6 years respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Telecom and Finance indices leading the losses, down 9.5% and 7.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 5085 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 300 cr and 1247 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3636 cr.

Rupee ended unchanged at 74.26/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.2%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 200 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 8555, the bottom made last week, continued to be the next meaningful support.

Nifty, after achieving 8555 target, went further to touch a low of 8407 before closing at 8468 and is set to open near 8300 today.

8300, where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in December 2011 and August 2013 is placed, is the next support to eye. Below 8300, 8020, where 500-week moving average is placed, would be the next crucial and major support.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 9300.

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

8555 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 9602 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE


8555 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 9602 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 5.2%-6.2% on hopes of fiscal stimulus to cushion the economy from the blow of the coronavirus.

Reports suggested that the Trump administration is weighing a fiscal stimulus package of more than $1 trillion that includes direct payments to Americans.

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters that corporations will be able to defer tax payments of up to $10 million while individuals could defer up to $1 million in payments to the Internal Revenue Service. Mnuchin also said President Donald Trump authorized the deferral of $300 billion in IRS payments.

Treasury yields jumped, with the 10-year U.S. rate breaking back above 1% on news of the big stimulus plan.

Brent crude fell 98 cents, or 3.2% to $29.07 per barrel while WTI shed $1.75, or 6.1%, to close at $26.95 per barrel, its lowest level since Feb. 2016.

European market rose 2.2%-2.8%. A survey from the ZEW economic research institute Tuesday showed that euro zone economic sentiment plummeted in March, falling to -49.5 from +10.4 in February.

AT HOME

After gaining more than 2% in the initial trade, benchmark indices nosedived nearly 5% from the top of the to end lower by 2.5%, with Sensex and Nifty closing at 34-month and 3-year low respectively. Sesnex settled at 30579, down 810 points while Nifty lost 230 points to finish at 8967. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices ended with cuts of 1.8% and 2.3% respectively. Except 1.2% higher FMCG index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Bankex and Finance indices leading the losses, down 4.5% and 4.4% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 4045 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 859 cr and 1354 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3422 cr.

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 74.26/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is marginally lower while Nikkei and Shanghai are up 1.5% and 0.6% respectively. US futures are down nearly 3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 100 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 9085, the 67% retracement level of the 8555-10160 upmove witnessed, was the support to eye below which, 8555, the bottom made on Friday, would be the next meaningful support.

Nifty, after touching a low of 8915, closed at 8967 and is set to open somewhat higher today.

8555, the bottom made last week, continues to be the next meaningful support.

9602, the top made on Monday, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which 10159, the top made on Friday, would be the next major hurdle.

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

9085 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 9602 IMMEDIATE HURDLE


9085 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 9602 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices collapsed 12%-13%, suffering the worst day since the “Black Monday” market crash in 1987, even after the Federal Reserve announced a massive monetary stimulus to curb slower economic growth amid the coronavirus outbreak. Nasdaq Composite had its worst day ever.

Selling accentuated towards the end after President Donald Trump said the worst of the outbreak could last until August. He also told reporters the U.S. “may be” heading into a recession.

U.S. cases oc coronavirus have jumped to 3,774 and 69 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.

WTI dropped $3.03, or 9.5%, to settle at $28.70 per barrel while Brent fell 11.2% or $3.80, to settle at $30.05 per barrel.

European markets tumbled 4%-8% with Spain leading the losses. Spain has imposed a 15-day nationwide lockdown, banning its 46 million citizens from all-non essential movement. European Commission president, proposed banning most foreign visitors into Europe for 30 days.

AT HOME

It turned out to be yet another manic Monday as Sensex and Nifty nosedived nearly 8% to close at the lowest level in 30 months and 35 months respectively. Sensex settled at 31390, down 2713 points while Nifty lost 757 points to finish at 9197. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices slipped 5.9% and 5.7% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Metal index and Bankex leading the losses, down 9.3% and 8.4% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 3810 cr and 1109 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 654 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2615 cr.

Rupee depreciated 49 paise to end at 74.23/$.

RBI yesterday announced two policy measures to stabilise financial markets: a US dollar sell/buy swap on March 23 worth $2 billion and a Long Term Repo Operation in multiple tranches of up to Rs 1 trillion.

India's February WPI inflation eased to 2.26% from 3.10% in January. Core WPI stood at -0.5% as against -0.9%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning US futures are up more than 3%, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes while SGX Nifty is suggesting about 150 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 9630, 9357 and 9085, the 33%, 50% and 67% retracement levels of Friday's 8555-10160 upmove, were the support levels to eye.

Nifty touched a low of 9165 before closing at 9197 and is set to open above 9300 today.

9602, the top made yesterday, would be the immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 10160, the top made on Friday, would be the next major hurdle.

9085, the 67% retracement level of the 8555-10160 upmove witnessed on Friday, is the support to eye. If 9085 gives way, 8555, the bottom made on Friday, would be the next meaningful support.

Monday, March 16, 2020

9630, 9357 ARE IMMEDIATE SUPPORTS; 10160, 10440 HURDLES


9630, 9357 ARE IMMEDIATE SUPPORTS; 10160, 10440 HURDLES

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 9.3% in their biggest rally since 2008, recouping most of the losses suffered in the previous session on the hopes of bigger fiscal stimulus from the U.S. government and others around the world.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said U.S. lawmakers and the White House were close to a deal on economic relief amid the coronavirus outbreak. Also, the Federal Reserve said it will start buying Treasurys across all durations, starting with 30-year bonds.

President Donald Trump said 50,000 new coronavirus tests will be available next week

WTI crude rose $1.61, or 5.1%, to $33.13 per barrel while Brent crude climbed $1.71, or 5.1%, to $34.93 after President Donald Trump said the Department of Energy would purchase crude for the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

Main European markets rose 0.8%-2.5%.

For the week, US indices ended with cuts of 8.2%-10.4%. European markets plunged 17%-20%, suffering their worst week ever, reacting to additional news of US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose restrictions on travel to the U.S. from Europe, and the European Central Bank’s decision not to cut interest rates. Asian markets saw cuts of 5%-16%.  WTI crude fell 21% to $33 in its largest weekly decline since the financial crisis. Safe haven gold too fell 6% to $1576 an ounce. US 10-year treasury yield rebounded to 0.98% as against 0.77% at the end of previous week. Dollar index rose 2.7% to 98.69.

AT HOME

After hitting 10% lower circuit at the open, benchmark indices saw a mammoth rebound of 16% from the bottom of the day to end higher by nearly 4%. Sesnex settled at 34103, up 1325 points while Nifty added 365 points to finish at 9955. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 2.1% and 1.3% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Telecom and Metal indices leading the tally, up 6.4% and 5.8% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 6028 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 2498 cr and 2101 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 5868 cr.

Rupee appreciated 51 paise to end at 73.74/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty ended with cuts of 9.2% and 9.5% respectively, the largest cut since October2008.

OUTLOOK

U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to zero and launched a massive $700 bn quantitative easing program in an emergency move on Sunday.

US Stock market futures are “limit down” levels of 5% lower. Nikkei and Shanghai are little changed while Hang Seng is down nearly 3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 300 points lower start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that 8970, followed by 8675, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the entire 6825-12430 upmove, would be support levels to eye.

Nifty, after touching a low of 8555, saw a mammoth rebound to end at 9955 and is set to open below 9700 today.

9630, 9357 and 9085, the 33%, 50% and 67% retracement levels of Friday's 8555-10160 upmove, are the support levels to eye.

10160, the top made on Friday, would work as immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 10440 would be the next resistance.