14800-14750 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE

14800-14750 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices nosedived 1.8%-3.5%, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst fall since October, on concerns that a rapid rise in bond yield could be driven by inflation rather than economic recovery.

 

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly soared as high as 1.6% before easing to around 1.52%, its highest level since February 2020. The 10-year yield is up more than 50 basis points since the year began.

 

Initial jobless claims fell sharply to 730,000 for the week ended Feb. 20, well below the estimate of 845,000. Data for durable goods also came in better than expected. An update to the fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate came in at 4.1%, slightly above the advance reading released by the Commerce Department last month. Pending home sales data for January showed a 2.8% decline compared with the previous month, missing estimates.

 

Brent crude for April eased 0.24% to $66.88 per barrel while WTI gained 0.5% to settle at $63.53 per barrel.

 

Spot gold slipped 1.8% to $1,772.86 per ounce.

 

European markets fell 0.1%-0.7%.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.5% and 0.8% respectively on the expiry day of the February derivative series, extending the winning streak to third straight day. Sensex settled at 51039, up 257 points while Nifty added 115 points to finish at 15097. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. Except 0.2% and 0.01% lower FMCG and Capital Goods indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Energy and Oil & Gas indices leading the tally, up 3.9% and 3.5% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 188 cr and 382 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1655 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 747 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to end at 72.41/$.

 

For the February derivative series, Nifty gained 9.3%.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 1.3%-3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 250 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 15100 continued to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 15250 and 15431 would be next upside targets.

 

Nifty crossed 15100 level and surged all the way to 15176 before closing at 15097. However, the benchmark is set to open near 14850 today.

 

14800-14750 is the support zone to eye on the hourly chart. If 14750 gives way, 14635, the bottom made on Monday, would be the crucial support to eye.

 

15176, the top made yesterday, would now act as immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 15260 and 15431 would be the next levels to eye.

 

India's Q3 FY21 GDP data will be released today and is expected to show a growth of 0.6%.

  

14800-14750 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE

 

14800-14750 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices nosedived 1.8%-3.5%, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst fall since October, on concerns that a rapid rise in bond yield could be driven by inflation rather than economic recovery.

 

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly soared as high as 1.6% before easing to around 1.52%, its highest level since February 2020. The 10-year yield is up more than 50 basis points since the year began.

 

Initial jobless claims fell sharply to 730,000 for the week ended Feb. 20, well below the estimate of 845,000. Data for durable goods also came in better than expected. An update to the fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate came in at 4.1%, slightly above the advance reading released by the Commerce Department last month. Pending home sales data for January showed a 2.8% decline compared with the previous month, missing estimates.

 

Brent crude for April eased 0.24% to $66.88 per barrel while WTI gained 0.5% to settle at $63.53 per barrel.

 

Spot gold slipped 1.8% to $1,772.86 per ounce.

 

European markets fell 0.1%-0.7%.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.5% and 0.8% respectively on the expiry day of the February derivative series, extending the winning streak to third straight day. Sensex settled at 51039, up 257 points while Nifty added 115 points to finish at 15097. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. Except 0.2% and 0.01% lower FMCG and Capital Goods indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Energy and Oil & Gas indices leading the tally, up 3.9% and 3.5% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 188 cr and 382 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1655 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 747 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to end at 72.41/$.

 

For the February derivative series, Nifty gained 9.3%.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 1.3%-3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 250 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 15100 continued to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 15250 and 15431 would be next upside targets.

 

Nifty crossed 15100 level and surged all the way to 15176 before closing at 15097. However, the benchmark is set to open near 14850 today.

 

14800-14750 is the support zone to eye on the hourly chart. If 14750 gives way, 14635, the bottom made on Monday, would be the crucial support to eye.

 

15176, the top made yesterday, would now act as immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 15260 and 15431 would be the next levels to eye.

 

India's Q3 FY21 GDP data will be released today and is expected to show a growth of 0.6%.

 

15250, 15431 ABOVE 15100

 

15250, 15431 ABOVE 15100

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After a negative start, US indices saw a sustained upward move through the session to end with gains of 1%-1.4%, with the Dow closing at a record level.

 

The lower start was on concerns of rising rates as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.4% and hit its highest level since February 2020. However, yield cooled off from higher level after Fed Chair Powell, in his testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee, continued to downplay the threat of inflation, saying it could take three years to reach the central bank’s target consistently.

 

Brent as well as US WTI crude rose 2.1% each to reach $66.74 and $62.94 a barrel respectively after data showed U.S. crude oil production dropped last week by more than 1 million barrels per day during the rare winter storm in Texas.

 

Dollar index rose 0.3% to reach 90.378. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,800.27 per ounce.

 

European markets gained 0.3%-0.8%. German economy grew 0.3% in the final quarter of 2020, on the back of strong exports and construction activity.

 

AT HOME

 

Bulls came back with a vengeance as Sensex and Nifty soared 2.1% and 1.9% respectively on the day which saw extension of trading till 5 pm due to a technical glitch at NSE which lead to trading half for nearly four hours. Sensex settled at 50781, up 1030 points while Nifty added 274 points to finish at 14982. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1% and 0.9% respectively. Except 0.1% lower Utilities and Power indices, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Bankex and Finance indices leading the tally, up 3.7% and 3.3% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 28793 cr and 443 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 322 cr. However, FII cash figure include Bosch and Affle India block deals. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 230 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to end at 72.35/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.6%-1.6%. SGX Nifty is trading around 15040, suggesting around 40 points higher start when compared to yesterday's close of Nifty future.

 

In yesterday's report, we had reiterated that 14635, the low made Monday, continued to be important immediate support while 15100 continued to be immediate hurdle.

 

Nifty surged to touch a high of 15008 before closing at 14982.

 

15100 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which will confirm a "Buy" on the hourly chart. 15250 and 15431 would be next upside target if that happens.

 

14635, the low made Monday, continues to be important immediate support.

 

14635 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 15100 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

14635 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 15100 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After starting with cuts of more than a percent, Dow and S & P 500 rebounded to end marginally in the green. Nasdaq, after plunging nearly 4% at the open, recovered to end lower by just half a percent. The intraday turnaround came after Fed Chair Powell after indicated that the central bank was not moving toward changing its dovish policy stance.

 

In his testimony to Congress, Powell said that “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.”

 

Tesla closed 2.2% lower after sliding as much as 13% earlier.  Apple’s stock dipped just 0.1% after falling 6% earlier. Energy and financial stocks gained.

 

December data for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller home price index showed the biggest price gain since 2013.

 

Brent crude rose 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $65.42 a barrel, while U.S. crude settled 3 cents lower at $61.67 per barrel.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.353%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 2.19%. The dollar index inched up 0.2%. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,803.62 an ounce.

 

In Europe, FTSE and CAC rose 0.2% each while DAX slipped 0.6%. Euro zone inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month in January, breaking from a months-long trend of falling prices. British government said it plans to have all coronavirus restrictions lifted by June 21.

 

AT HOME

 

Bulls had a sigh of relief as Sensex and Nifty ended marginally higher, snapping five-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 49751, up 7 points while Nifty added 32 points to finish at 14707. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1% and 0.9% respectively. BSE Metal and Realty indices soared 3.7% and 2.9% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bankex and Finance indices were the top losers, down 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1569 cr and 160 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 259 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 217 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 72.45/$.

 

With effect from 31st March, Tata Consumer will replace GAIL in Nifty.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is down half a percent, Shanghai is little changed while Hang Seng is up 0.3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 100 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 14635, the low made Monday, also coincided with the 34-DMA and hence is the important immediate support to eye.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 14651, rebounded to end at 14707 and is set to open near 14800 today.

 

14635, the low made Monday, continues to be important immediate support to eye.

 

15100 continues to be immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, positional shorts can be held on to.

 

NIFTY TESTS 34-DMA SUPPORT

 

NIFTY TESTS 34-DMA SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Nasdaq nosedived 2.5%, S & P 500 fell 0.8% while Dow managed to end 0.1% higher as a continuous rise in bond yields dented the appetite for growth stocks over economically sensitive stocks.

 

Big Tech stocks came under pressure with Apple, Amazon and Microsoft all dropping at least 2%. Tela plunged 8.6%. On the flip side, industrial giant Caterpillar and chemicals company Dow Inc. both climbed more than 3.5%. American Express and Chevron gained 3.2% and 2.7%, respectively. Disney jumped 4.4%.

 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose again yesterday to around 1.364% after jumping 14 basis points last week to its highest level since February 2020. The 30-year yield touched a one-year high of 2.2%.

 

Brent crude climbed $2.04, or 3.2%, to $64.95 a barrel, while U.S. oil rose $2.25, or 3.8%, to settle at $61.49 a barrel, driven by the expected slow return of U.S. crude output after last week’s deep freeze in Texas shut in production.

 

The dollar index fell 0.4% to a more than one-month low. Spot Gold rose 1.5% to $1808 an ounce.

 

European markets fell 0.1%-0.6%. The U.K. unveiled how it plans to lift lockdown measures gradually in the coming months, as its vaccination rollout maintains its good pace. Germany's Ifo business climate index for February improved by more than expected on both current conditions and expectations.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty plunged 2.2% and 2% respectively, suffering the worst fall in 2-months and extending the losing streak to fifth straight day. Sensex lost 1145 points to settle at 49744, while Nifty settled at 14675, down 306 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. Except 2.2% and 0.3% higher Metal and Basic Materials indices, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Energy and Realty indices leading the losses, down 2.9% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 893 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 749 cr and 202 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 920 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 72.50/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 80 points higher start for our market.

 

Readers would recall that we had initiated negative view on Nifty after 15078 was breached and have been advising holding on to short positions with a trailing stop-loss.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that  14898, the low made Friday, was the immediate support, upon breach of which, 20-DMA, placed around 14760, would be the next target to eye.

 

Nifty broke 14898 and plunged all the way to 14635 before closing at 14675. The benchmark is set to open near 14750 today.

 

14635, the low made yesterday, also coincides with the 34-DMA and hence is the important immediate support to eye. Below 14635, 14514, the 50% retracement level of the recent 13596-15431 upmove, would be the next level to watch.

 

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 15100, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 15220

 

STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 15220

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Nasdaq inched up 0.1%, Dow was flat while S & P 500 fell 0.2% on Friday. Indices ended off around half a percent from the morning highs on rising interest rates and profit taking in some of the market’s largest technology companies.

 

Brent crude futures fell 1.6% to $62.91 per barrel, while WTI crude futures settled 2.1% lower at $59.24 per barrel as Texas energy firms began to prepare for restarting oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather.

 

US 10-year Treasury yield advanced 5 bps to 1.34% while 30-year bond yield rose to 2.14%. 

 

European markets gained 0.1%-1.2%. The euro zone flash composite PMI, climbed to 48.1 in February from 47.8 in January. Germany’s composite PMI reading came in at 51.3, up from 50.8 in January. French activity weakened to 45.2, down from 47.7 in January.

 

For the week, Nasdaq and S&P 500 lost 1.6% and 0.7% respectively while Dow managed to gain 0.1%. In Europe, FTSE and CAC rose 0.5% and 1.2% respectively while DAX was off 0.4%. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai gained 1.1%-1.8% while Nifty fell 1.2%. 

 

The 10-year Treasury yield this week rose 13 bps to 1.34%, the highest in nearly a year. Gold fell 2.3% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since the week of Jan. 8, as rising treasury yields increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Oil, after rising on first three days of the week as cold weather fostered demand and threatened to hamstring production in Texas, reversed later to end the week lower, as Texas energy firms began to prepare for restarting oil and gas fields and the United States said it was ready to talk to Iran about both nations returning to a 2015 agreement that aimed to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices slipped nine tenth of a percent, extending the losing streak to fourth straight day and closing at the lowest level since 10th February. Sensex settled at 50889, down 434 points while Nifty lost 137 points to finish at 14981. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1.6% and 0.9% respectively. Except 0.3% higher Energy index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Auto index being the top loser, down 2.6%, followed by 2.1% lower Metal index and Bankex.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 119 cr, 281 cr and 319 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1175 cr.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, snapping two-week losing streak.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are trading with gains of 1% and 0.4% respectively while Shanghai is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 20 points higher start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that a breach of 15078, the low made Thursday, would confirm a "Sell" on the hourly chart and pave the way for further correction and that 14977, the low made last week, would be the next downside target if that happens. 

 

Nifty broke 15078 and plunged all the way to 14898 before closing at 14981.

 

14898, the low made Friday, is the immediate support, upon breach of which, 20-DMA, placed around 14760, which also coincides with the 14753 top made on 21st January, would be the next support to eye. On the way up, 15220 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

14977 BELOW 15078; 15250 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

14977 BELOW 15078; 15250 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.4% each while Nasdaq slipped 0.7% after a worse-than-expected reading on jobless claims as well as weak guidance from Walmart. 

 

First-time filings for jobless claims totaled 861,000 last week, the highest in a month and above the estimate of 773,000. Other data showed the homebuilding market slowing amid high lumber prices and a significant jump for import prices.

 

Brent crude fell 0.64% to settle at $63.93 while WTI crude futures slid 1.01% to settle at $60.52 a barrel. Data from EIA showed Crude inventories fell by 7.3 million barrels in the week to Feb. 12, higher than the expected decline of 2.4 million barrels.

 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a large Covid relief package is still needed for a full recovery in the U.S.

 

US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.286%, while that on the 30-year bond rose 0.9 bps to 2.076%. The dollar index fell 0.33% to 90.601. Spot gold inched 0.1% lower to $1,774.21 per ounce.

 

European markets fell 0.2%-1.4%

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty slipped 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight day. This was the first three-day losing streak this month. Sensex settled at 51324, down 379 points while Nifty lost 90 points to finish at 15119. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however bucked the trend, rising 0.5% and 1% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and Utilities indices surged 4.2% and 3.9% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto index and Bankex were the top losers, down 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 903 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 18 cr and 1195 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1217 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 9 paise to end at 72.65/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 40 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 15080 continued to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 15078, closed at 15118 and is set to open near yesterday's low today.

 

A breach of 15078, the low made yesterday, would confirm a "Sell" on the hourly chart and pave the way for further correction. 14977, the low made last week, would be the next downside target if that happens. 

 

15250, the top made yesterday, would now act as immediate hurdle.

 

15080 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

15080 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow rose 0.3%, S & P 500 was little changed while Nasdaq fell 0.6% as markets weighed improving economic data with rising inflation expectations. Rise in Chevron and Verizon helped the Dow.

 

Robust retail sales, industrial output and producer prices data signaled the economic recovery from the pandemic recession is gaining momentum as vaccine deployment progresses. Retail sales in the U.S. in January showed a 5.3% jump after declining 0.7% in December and beating the expected rise of 1.2% by a big margin. Producer prices jumped 1.3%.

 

Minutes of the latest Fed meeting showed participants expressed the need to “stay vigilant” amid recent signs of economic rebound, discussed expected near term inflation, and affirmed its commitment to keeping accommodative policy in place to support the ailing jobs market.

 

Brent crude gained 99 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $64.34 a barrel, while WTI crude rose $1.09, or 1.8%, to $61.14 per barrel, both hitting their highest level since January 2020.

 

US 10-year treasury yield, after rising as high as 1.333% earlier in the day, retreated to 1.275%. Dollar index rose half a percent to 90.95. Spot gold fell 1.2% to $1,773.72 per ounce, it's lowest in over 2-months.

 

European markets fell 0.4%-1.1%. U.K. inflation growth surprised to the upside in January, rising by 0.7% in annual terms.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty slipped 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, extending the losing streak to second straight day. Sensex settled at 51703, down 400 points while Nifty lost 104 points to finish at 15208. Nifty mid-cap index however rose 0.3% and small-cap index ended flat. BSE Healthcare and IT indices fell 0.9% each, becoming the top losers among the sectoral indices, while Power and Telecom indices were the top gainers, up 1.3% and 1% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1008 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 182 cr and 651 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1283 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 5 paise to end at 72.74/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today, Shanghai has opened after Lunar New Year holidays and is trading with gains in excess of 1%. Other Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto 0.4%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 25 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 15080 continued to be immediate support on the hourly chart while 15500-15550 continued to be the upside target zone.

 

Nifty slipped to touch a low of 15197 before closing at 15208.

 

15080 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart while 15500-15550 continues to be the upside target zone. Trading longs can be held on to with the stop-loss of 15080.