NIFTY ACHIEVES UPSIDE TARGET; 14615 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

NIFTY ACHIEVES UPSIDE TARGET; 14615 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% each while Nasdaq eased 0.1% amid fears about rising interest rates.

 

10-year Treasury yield notched a 14-month high of 1.77% before easing to 1.7153%. Dollar index rose 0.4% to 93.29, hitting a four month high. Spot gold slipped 1.7% to $1,682.81 per ounce. The move in yield came a day ahead of President Biden revealing details of his nearly $3 trillion infrastructure plan.

 

Economic data was strong. U.S. consumer confidence climbed in March to its highest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, while housing prices soared year-on-year in January.

 

Brent crude fell 84 cents, or 1.3%, to $64.14 a barrel while WTI oil fell $1.01, or 1.6%, to $60.55 barrel.

 

European markets gained 0.5%-1.3%.  Euro zone economic sentiment jumped to 101 points from 93.4 in February, beating expected 96 mark. The euro weakened to $1.1711, its lowest level since early November as tougher coronavirus curbs in France and Germany dimmed the short-term outlook for the European economy.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices soared 2.3% each, registering their biggest gain since 2nd February. Sensex settled at 50136, up 1128 points while Nifty added 337 points to finish at 14845. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with IT and Teck indices leading the tally, up 3.5% and 3.1% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 769 cr while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2181 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 87 paise to end at 73.38/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are down 0.8% each while Hang Seng is up 0.3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that a sustained crossover of 14640 hurdle will confirm a "Buy" on the hourly chart and 14878, the top made last week, would be the next upside level to eye if that happens.

 

Nifty crossed 14640 hurdle and surged all the way to 14876 before closing at 14845, vindicating our view.

 

34-DMA, placed around 14920, is the next upside level to eye, upon crossover of which, 15051, the top made on 16th March, would be the next upside target.

 

14615 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

 

14878 ABOVE 14640; 14264 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

14878 ABOVE 14640; 14264 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

On Friday, US indices surged 1.2%-1.7%, with the S & P 500 hitting a record high.

 

Yesterday, Dow rose 0.3% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.1% and 0.6% respectively.

 

President Biden is expected to unveil an infrastructure plan, which could cost north of $3 trillion, when he travels to Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.71% while that on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 2.41%.

 

Dollar index rose 0.2% to 92.94. Spot gold fell 1.1% to $1,713.52 per ounce.

 

Brent oill rose 41 cents to $64.98 a barrel while U.S. crude rose 59 cents to settle at $61.56 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.1% while DAX and CAC rose 0.4% each.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty climbed 1.2% and 1.3% respectively on Friday, snapping two-day losing streak and recouping 80% of Thursday's losses. Sensex settled at 49008, up 568 points while Nifty added 182 points to finish at 14507. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 1.6% and 1.2% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Metal and Consumer Durables indices leading the tally, up 3.5% and 2.8% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 50 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1880 cr and 718 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1703 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to end at 72.51/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, extending the losing streak to second consecutive week.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are marginally in the red while Hang Seng is up 0.4%. SGX Nifty is trading around 14778, suggesting around 170 points higher start when compared to Friday's close of Nifty futures.

 

Just to recall, we had turned our view on Nifty negative after 15060 was breached and have been advising holding on to short positions with a trailing stop-loss.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 20-week moving average, placed around 14120, was the next support and had advised trailing stop-loss in short positions to 14640.

 

Nifty rose to close at 14507 and is set to open near 14650 today.

 

A sustained crossover of 14640 hurdle will confirm a "Buy" on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further upmove. We would wait for the crossover of first hour high for this. If that happens, 14878, the top made last week, would be the next upside level to eye.

 

14264, the low made last week, roughly coincides with the trendline adjoining bottoms made on 21st December and 29th January and hence is the immediate support to eye.

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 14640

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 14640

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After falling nearly a percent in the initial trade, US indices saw a sustained northward move through rest of the session to end higher by 0.1%-0.6%

 

Bank stocks rose after the Fed announced that banks could resume buybacks and raise dividends starting at the end of June.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.63% while that on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 2.35% after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that congressional stimulus and accelerated vaccine distribution has allowed the economy to recover faster than expected and that at some point, that will allow the Fed to start pulling back on the help it has provided.

 

Jobless claims totaled 684,000 for the week ended March 20, lower than the expected figure of 735000 and marking the first print below 700,000 since the Covid-19 pandemic began just over a year ago.

 

The dollar index gained 0.4% to hit four month high. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,727.01 per ounce

 

Brent crude slid 3.8% to $61.95 per barrel while U.S. WTI crude dropped 4.28% to settle at $58.26 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.6% while DAX and CAC inched up 0.1% each.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty plunged a percent and half each to close at the lowest level since 29th January and 1st February respectively. Sensex settled at 48440, down 740 points while Nifty lost 224 points to finish at 14324. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices nosedived 2% and 2.2% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Telecom index leading the losses, down 3.1%, followed by 2.8% lower Power and Auto indices.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 3384 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 960 cr and 1313 cr respectively. DIIs were net bought stocks worth Rs 2268 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 6 paise to end at 72.62/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-1.2% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 80 points higher start for our market.

 

At the risk of repeating, we had turned our view on Nifty negative after 15060 was breached and have been advising holding on to short positions with a trailing stop-loss.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 14525 was the immediate support, below which, 14350, the bottom made on 19th March, would be the crucial support.

 

Nifty broke 14525 and plunged all the way to 14264 before closing at 14325. The benchmark is set to open near 14400 today.

 

20-week moving average, placed around 14120, is the next support to eye.

 

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 14640, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

14350 BELOW 14525; 14900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

14350 BELOW 14525; 14900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.6% and 2% respectively as tech stocks plunged. Even Dow slipped nearly a percent from the top of the day as reopening trades like airlines and cruise operators reversed earlier strength.

 

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 3 bps to 1.61%, falling for a third day.

 

Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell appeared for a second day of testimony before federal lawmakers. Both reiterated their belief that, thanks in large part to fiscal and monetary stimulus, the U.S. economy will see marked growth in 2021.

 

The Markit flash manufacturing PMI for March came in at 59.0, below the 59.8 expectation. Durable goods orders showed a surprise decline.

 

Dollar index rose to 92.59 and hit a four-month high. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,733.39 per ounce.

 

Brent crude surged $3.69, or 6%, to $64.48 a barrel, while WTI climbed $3.53, or 6.1%, to $61.29, after a ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, raising concerns that the incident could tie up crude shipments. Also, U.S. inventory figures showed a further rebound in refining activity.

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.2%, CAC was flat while DAX fell 0.4%. IHS Markit’s composite PMI for Eurozone came in at 52.5 for March, up from 48.0 in February. The U.K. equivalent rose to 56.6 in March from 49.6 in February, significantly outpacing expectations.

 

AT HOME

 

Bears were back after a 3-day pause as benchmark indices nosedived just under 2%, suffering their worst fall in nearly a month. Sensex settled at 49180, down 871 points while Nifty lost 265 points to finish at 14549. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices slipped 2% and 2.1% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Realty and Metal indices leading the losses, down 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. 47 out of 50 Nifty stocks closed lower.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1952 cr, 1677 cr and 727 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 613 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 14 paise to end at 72.56/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.3% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down nearly half a percent each.  SGX Nifty is suggesting around 25 points lower start for our market.

 

Readers would recall that we had turned our view on Nifty negative after 15060 was breached and have been advising holding on to short positions with a trailing stop-loss.

 

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 14900 continued to be immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 14878 on Tuesday, plunged to make a low of 14535, vindicating our view.

 

14525, the two-third retracement level of the recent 14350-14878 upmove, is the immediate support to eye, below which, 14350, the bottom made on 19th March, would be the crucial support.

 

14900 continues to be immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

14900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

14900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices plunged 0.8%-1.1% on concerns that rising new coronavirus cases in the U.S. and abroad could delay the economic recovery.

 

WHO said many regions of the world are seeing rising Covid-19 cases as highly contagious variants continue to spread. Nearly a third of France entered a month-long lockdown on Saturday and Germany is extending its lockdown until April 18.

 

Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen made their first joint appearance in front of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on to discuss their response to the coronavirus pandemic. Powell said that the economic recovery from the pandemic had “progressed more quickly than generally expected and looks to be strengthening.”

However, he said that the sectors of the economy hardest-hit by the pandemic “remain weak” and the unemployment rate “underestimates the shortfall,” so the recovery still had a long way to go.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 6 bps to 1.615% while that on the 30-year Treasury bond dipped more than 5 basis points to 2.326%.

 

The dollar index rose 0.65% to 91.8. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $1,727.31 per ounce.

 

Brent crude plunged $2.61, or 4%, to $62.01 a barrel while WTI crude futures fell by $2.71, or 4.4%, to $58.85.

 

In Europe, DAX was flat while FTSE and CAC fell 0.4% each. U.K. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by a tenth of a percentage point to 5% in the three months to January.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended higher by nearly half a percent after a rangebound but choppy session. Sensex settled at 50051, up 280 points while Nifty added 78 points to finish at 14814. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.9% and 0.4% respectively, extending the winning streak to third straight day. BSE Bankex and Industrials indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, rising 1.5% and 1.2% respectively while Metal index was the top loser, down 0.7%, followed by 0.4% lower FMCG and Oil & Gas indices.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 108 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 440 cr and 51 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 530 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 5 paise to end at 72.42/$.

 

Supreme Court directed that no compound or penal interest be charged during the six-month loan moratorium period announced last year amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the amount already charged shall be refunded, credited or adjusted. The apex court refused to interfere with the Centre and RBI's decision to not extend the loan moratorium beyond 31 August last year, saying it is a policy decision.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.4%-1.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 50 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 14900 continued to be immediate hurdle on the hourly chart while 14350, the low made last week, continued to be important support.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 14878, closed at 14814, and is set to open near 14750 today.

 

14900 continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 15051 and 15336, the tops made last week and the week before that respectively, will be the next upside targets to eye.

 

14597, the low made on Monday, is the immediate support, below which, 14350, the low made last week, would be the crucial support.

 

Meanwhile, trading shorts can be held on to with the stop-loss of 14900.

 

14900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

14900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices rose 0.3%-1.2% as the 10-year Treasury yield declined 5 basis points to 1.68%, following a 14-month high touched last week. The Dow and S&P 500 broke a two-day losing streak while Nasdaq rose for the fifth positive session in six.

 

In prepared remarks published ahead of Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen's appearance before the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, Powell noted that the recovery is gaining steam, before adding there’s still a long way to go.

 

Brent crude inched up 6 cents or 0.1% to $64.59 a barrel while U.S. oil gained 13 cents to settle at $61.55 per barrel.

 

The dollar index fell about 0.35% to 92.09. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,738.93 per ounce.

 

In Europe, FTSE and DAX rose a fourht of a percent while CAC fell half a percent.

 

Meanwhile, Turkish Lira plunged 15% against the US dollar after President Erdogan abruptly replaced the central bank chief just days after a sharp interest rate hike, which Erdogan vehemently opposes.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended marginally lower after a choppy session. Sensex settled at 49771, down 86 points while Nifty lost 7 points to finish at 14736. Nifty mid-cap index rose 0.8% while small-cap index was little changed.  BSE Realty and IT indices climbed 2.9% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bankex and Finance indices were the top losers, down 1.5% and 1% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 787 cr and 18 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 275 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 543 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 72.37/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.6%, Hang Seng is flat while Shanghai is off 0.3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 14350, the bottom made on Friday, was the important immediate support while 14900 was the immediate hurdle.

 

Nifty, after a choppy session, settled 7 points lower at 14736 and is set to open above 14750 today.

 

14900 continues to be immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

 

14350, the low made last week, continues to be important support.

 

Meanwhile, trading shorts can be held on to with the stop-loss of 14900.

 

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM IMPORTANT SUPPORT; 14900 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM IMPORTANT SUPPORT; 14900 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

On Friday, Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.7% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq rose 0.8% after the Federal Reserve’s decision to not extend a pandemic-era capital break for banks stoked a rise in bond yields and a sell-off in financial stocks.

 

The measure allowed banks to hold less capital against treasuries and other holdings and was implemented to calm the bond market during the crisis and encourage banks to lend. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.732% while that on the 30-year bond rose to 2.451%.

 

Brent crude settled 2% higher at $64.53 per barrel while WTI crude rose 2.4% to settle at $61.42 per barrel.

 

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,742.14 per ounce.

 

In Europe, FTSE, CAC and DAX, all fell a percent each. France imposed a new four-week lockdown from Friday in 16 regions badly hit by the health crisis. Meanwhile, many European countries, including Germany and France resumed the rollout of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford Covid-19 vaccine, after British and European medicines regulators recommended it continue to be used following concerns over a small number of recipients developing blood clots. On the data front, British consumer sentiment notched a one-year high in March, according to a GfK survey.

 

For the week, Dow and the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, breaking their two-week win streak. Nasdaq declined 0.8%, posting its fourth negative week in five. In Europe, FTSE and CAC fell 0.8% each while DAX rose 0.8%. In Asia, Nifty and Shanghai slipped 1.9% and 1.4% respectively whereas Hang Seng and Nikkei were up 0.9% and 0.2% respectively.

 

WTI crude oil plunged 6.3% for the week on the back of a stronger dollar, a further increase in U.S. crude and fuel inventories and a slowdown in some vaccination programmes and the prospect of more restrictions to control the coronavirus. Gold rose 1.1% to $1745 an ounce. Dollar index climbed 0.6%.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling nearly a percent and half in the initial trade, benchmark indices soared more than 2.5% from the bottom of the day to end higher by 1.3% each, snapping 5-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 49858, up 641 points while Nifty added 186 points to finish at 14744. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. Except 0.6% and 0.05% lower Realty and Capital Goods indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Power and Utilities indices leading the tally, up 3.2% and 3% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1418 cr, 1507 cr and 1496 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 560 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to close at 72.51/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty lost 1.8% and 1.9% respectively, snapping two-week winning streak.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is down nearly 2% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 0.2% and 1% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

At the risk of repeating, we had turned our view on Nifty negative after 15060 was breached and have been advising holding on to short positions with a trailing stop-loss.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 14467, the bottom made on 26th February was the immediate support below which, 14336, the lower end of the gap created by gap-up opening on 2nd February, would be the next downside level to eye.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 14350, rebounded to end at 14744.

 

14350, the bottom made Friday, coincides with the lower end of the gap created by gap-up opening on 2nd February (the day following the union budget day) along with the trendline adjoining bottoms made in May and September 2020. This makes 14350 an important immediate support.

 

On the way up, 14870-14900 is the immediate resistance zone on the hourly chart, upon crossover of which, 15051 and 15336, the tops made last week and the week before that respectively, will be the next upside targets to eye.

 

Meanwhile, trading shorts can be held on to with the stop-loss of 14900.