Tuesday, August 31, 2021

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 16722

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 16722

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.4% and 0.9% respectively to hit fresh record highs while Dow eased 0.2%.

 

Pending home sales declined for a second straight month in July and a report on manufacturing activity in August from the Dallas Federal Reserve showed a slowing from the prior month.

 

US 10-year treasury yield eased 3 bps to 1.282%. Dollar index was little changed at 92.69. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,808.67 per ounce.

 

Brent crude rose 54 cents a barrel, or 0.7% to 73.23 while U.S. crude rose 34 cents, or 0.5% to $69.08 a barrel.

 

European markets gained 0.1%-0.3%. Euro zone economic sentiment eased more than expected in August from a record high in July.

 

AT HOME

 

It was a rocking start to the new week as benchmark indices soared 1.4% each to hit fresh record highs. Sensex settled at 56890, up 765 points while Nifty added 225 points to finish at 16931. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.9% and 1.5% respectively. Except 0.5% and 0.04% lower IT and Teck indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Telecom and Metal indices leading the tally, up 3.5% and 2.6% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1203 cr, 558 cr and 1446 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 689 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 42 paise to end at 73.26/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are marginally in the red while Hang Seng is off 0.7%. SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 16850 was the next upside target, above which, 17000 would be the next upside level to eye.

 

Nifty surged to touch a high of 16951 before closing at 16931.

 

17000-17050 is the next target zone to eye,

 

16764-16722, the gap created by yesterday's gap-up opening, would now act as immediate support zone.

 

Trading longs can be held on to with the stop-loss of 16722.

 

36500, 37200 are upside levels to eye for Banknifty; 35700 is immediate support.

  

Monday, August 30, 2021

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 16565

 

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 16565

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.7%-1.2% on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at all-time highs on after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank would begin cutting its asset purchases later this year but rate hikes were still far off.

 

Powell said inflation is solidly around the central bank’s 2% target rate, one of the goals of the Fed’s dual mandate; however, he also explained why he continues to think the current inflation rise is transitory and will eventually drop to the target level. He also said the central bank has “much ground to cover” to reach its other goal of maximum employment.

 

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 4.2% y-o-y in July and 0.4% from the previous month. The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment data for August came in at 70.3, reinforcing a dramatic decline seen in the preliminary reading two weeks earlier.

 

US 10-year treasury yield lost 3.9 bps to reach 1.305%. Dollar index fell 0.42% to 92.6540. Spot gold rose 1.4% to $1,817.21 per ounce

 

Brent futures rose $1.63, or 2.3%, to $72.70 a barrel, while WTI crude rose $1.32, or 2.0%, to settle at $68.74.

 

European markets rose 0.2%-0.6%. French consumer confidence index slipped to 99 from 100 in July.

 

For the week, US indices gained 0.9%-2.8% with the Nasdaq on the top. Brent gained over 11% and WTI rose more than 10%, which were the biggest weekly percentage gains for both since June 2020.

 

AT HOME

 

After dipping around 0.4% in the initial trade, benchmark indices surged nearly eight tenth of a percent to end higher by about four tenth of a percent, hitting fresh record highs. Sensex added 176 points to settle at 56125 while Nifty finished at 16705, up 68 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices surged 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Capital Goods and Basic Material indices leading the tally, up 2.1% and 1.7% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 779 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures wroth Rs 415 cr and 1917 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1646 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 53 paise to end at 73.68/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. Nifty mid-cap index rose 2.1%, snapping 2-week losing streak. Small-cap index added 1.9%, registering first positive week in four.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Shanghai and Nikkei are trading with modest gains while Hang Seng is marginally in the red. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 70 points higher start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 16800 continued to be next upside level to eye and had asked holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 16540.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 16565, rebounded to end at 16705 and is set to open above 16750 today.

 

16850 is the next upside target, above which, 17000 would be the next upside level to eye.

 

16565, the low made Friday, would now work as the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

36300 is the upside hurdle for Banknifty; 35350 is the immediate support.

 

Friday, August 27, 2021

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 16540

 

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 16540

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.5%-0.6%, weighed down by developments in Afghanista and looking for more details from Jackson Hole symposium regarding the central bank’s plans to taper monetary stimulus. The Dow snapped a four-day win streak while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both broke five-day win streaks.

 

The Pentagon confirmed 12 U.S. service members were killed and 15 wounded after two explosions went off outside the Kabul airport Thursday.

 

US weekly jobless claims came in 353,000, roughly in line with the 350,000 claims expected. The prior week saw 348,000 claims. Second-quarter GDP growth came in a 6.6%, just a tick below the consensus estimate of 6.7%.

 

US 10-year treasury yield were little changed at 1.346%. Dollar index rose 0.24% to 93.05. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,792.01 per ounce.

 

Brent crude fell 50 cents, or 0.7%, to $71.75 per barrel while WTI was down 65 cents, or 1%, at $67.71 a barrel, both snapping 3-day winning streak.

 

European markets eased 0.2%-0.8%. Germany's GfK’s consumer sentiment index for September fell to -1.2 points from a revised -0.4 points in August, and fell short of a -0.7 forecast. France's composite business confidence index came in at 110 versus 113 in July.

 

AT HOME

 

Consolidation continued as benchmark indices ended flat after a rangebound buy choppy session. Sensex settled 5 points higher at 55949 while Nifty finished at 16637, up 2 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% each.

 

BSE Telecom index tumbled 3.4%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.4% lower Metal index. Energy and Power indices were the top gainers, up 1.1% and 0.9% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1974 cr and 208 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 1998 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1055 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to end at 74.21/$.

 

Bharti Airtel plunged after the company said its board will meet on August 29 to consider fund raising.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is down half a percent while Hang Seng and Shanghai are little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 16800 was the next upside level to eye and had advised trailing stop-loss in long positions to 16540.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 16686, slipped to end at 16636.

 

16800 continues to be next upside level to eye.

 

16540 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

36300 is the upside hurdle for Banknifty; 35400-35350 continues to be immediate support zone.

 

10 stocks will debut in F&O segment from today. These are Canfin Homes, Dixon, IEX, HAL, Indiamart, Ipca, MCX, OFSS, Polycab and Syngene.

Thursday, August 26, 2021

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 16540

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 16540

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.1%-0.2%, with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh record highs, ahead of the beginning of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday.

 

US 10-year treasury yield added 5 bps to reach 1.342%. Dollar index was little changed at 92.85. Spot gold slipped 0.8% to $1,788.90 per ounce.

 

Oil extended gains for a third session after U.S. government data showed that fuel demand climbed to its highest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Brent crude settled $1.20, or 1.7%, higher at $72.25 per barrel while WTI crude advanced 82 cents, or 1.2%, to $68.36 per barrel.

 

In Europe, except 0.3% lower DAX, other markets gained 0.1%-0.3%. Germany's Ifo business climate index for August came in at 99.4, below a forecast of 100.4 and down from a revised 100.7 in July. U.K. retailers reported the sharpest increase in spending for almost seven years in August but inventories fell to the lowest levels on record, exerting pressure on prices.

 

AT HOME

 

It was a day of consolidation as after rising half a percent in the morning and hitting record highs, benchmark indices gave away all the gains in noon to end little changed. Sensex lost 15 points to settle at 55944 while Nifty finished at 16634, up 10 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, extending yesterday's outperformance. BSE Oil & Gas and Power indices climbed 1.3% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durables and Telecom indices were the top losers, down 1.1% and 0.8% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1072 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 78 cr and 818 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 181 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 5 paise to end at 74.24/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are little changed and SGX Nifty is also suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 16701, the top made last week, was the next upside level to eye, upon crossover of which, 16800 would be the next target. We had also advised trailing stop-loss in long positions to 16500.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 16712, eased to end at 16634.

 

16800 is the next upside level to eye.

 

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 16540, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

36300 is the upside level for Banknifty; 35400-35350 is the immediate support zone.

 

 

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 16500

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 16500

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.1%-0.5% with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs. Nasdaq listed Chinese stocks surged as investors gain more clarity on China’s regulatory outlook and buy shares of names that have taken a beating lately

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 4 bps to 1.295%. Dollar index eased 0.1% to 92.899. Spot gold was steady at $1,804.99 per ounce.

 

Brent curde settled 3.4% higher at $71.05 per barrel while WTI gained $1.90, or 2.9%, to settle at $67.54 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE and DAX rose 0.2% and 0.3% respectively while CAC fell 0.3%. German GDP grew by 1.6% in the second quarter, slightly outpacing previous estimate of 1.5% growth.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices climbed three fourth of a percent, extending yesterday's upmove and recouping three fourth of the recent losses. Sensex settled at 55959, up 403 points while Nifty added 128 points to finish at 16624. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices surged 1.4% and 2% respectively, with the later snapping 6-day losing streak. BSE Metal and Basic Material indices gained 2.8% and 2.2% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 0.4% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1645 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1103 cr and 2400 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2380 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 74.19/$.

 

Bajaj Finserve surged after the company got SEBI nod to set up mutual fund.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.3% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 50 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that upon crossover of 16600, 16701 would be the next upside target and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 16376.

 

Nifty crossed 16600 hurdle and surged all the way to 16647 before closing at 16625. The benchmark is set to open above 16650 today.

 

16701, the top made last week, is the next upside level to eye, upon crossover of which, 16800 would be the next target.

 

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 16500, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

36300 is the upside level for Banknifty; 35400 is immediate support.

Tuesday, August 24, 2021

16701 ABOVE 16600; 16376 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

16701 ABOVE 16600; 16376 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.6%-1.6% with Nasdaq leading the tally on news that U.S. regulators granted full approval for Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid vaccine. Rebound in oil also aided sentiment.

 

IHS Markit's flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for August fell to 61.2 from July’s 63.4. Service-sector PMI dropped to 55.2, down from July’s reading of 59.9. Existing home sales increased by 2% month-on-month to 5.99 million in July, beating forecasts for a rise to 5.83 million.

 

US 10-year treasury yield were little changed at 1.257%. Dollar index fell 0.57% to 92.95. Spot gold jumped 1.3% to $1,803.29.

 

Oil prices surged to snap a seven-day losing streak. WTI gained $3.50, or 5.6%, to settle at $65.64 per barrel while Brent advanced 5.48%, or $3.57, to $68.75 per barrel.

 

European markets rose 0.3%-0.9%. IHS Markit’s flash composite PMI for the euro zone hit a two-month low of 59.5 in August versus 60.2 in July. UK's IHS Markit/CIPS flash composite PMI fell to 55.3 from 59.2 in July, its third consecutive monthly decline and lowest reading since February.

 

AT HOME

 

After a gap-up opening, Sensex and Nifty gave away more than half of the gains through the session to end higher by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Sensex settled at 55555, up 226 points while Nifty added 46 points to finish at 16496. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 0.9% and 1.8% respectively to close at the lowest level since 1st July and 24th June respectively.

 

Basic Materials and Auto indices fell 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Teck and IT indices were the top gainers, up 1.3% and 1.2% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1363 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 310 cr and 2723 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1452 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 17 paise to end at 74.21/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.6%-1.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 100 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 16600 was the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 16592 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 16496 and is set to open near 16600 today.

 

16600 continues to be immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, upon crossover of which, 16701, the top made last week, would be the next upside level to eye; 16376, the low made Friday, continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

34800, 34400 are supports for Banknifty; 35700 is the immediate resistance, above which, 36300 would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

 

Monday, August 23, 2021

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE SUPPORT; 16600 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE SUPPORT; 16600 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.6%-1.2% on Friday, building on Thursday’s rebound from lower levels.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 1 bps to 1.257%. Dollar index was little changed at 93.629. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,782.45 per ounce.

 

Oil extended the fall to seventh straight day. Brent crude fell $1.27, or 1.9%, to $65.18 a barrel while WTI slipped $1.37, or 2.2%, to $62.32 a barrel, hitting their lowest since April.

 

European markets rose 0.3%-0.4%. German producer prices rose at hither-than-expected 1.9% month-on-month in July. British retail sales dropped in July by 2.5% from the previous month.

 

China’s one-year loan prime rate (LPR) and five-year LPR were both left unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively. Tougher scrutiny over technology continues in China with a new data protection law approved on Friday.

 

For the week, US equity indices fell 0.6%-1.1%, European markets slipped 1.1%-3.9% while Asian markets saw cuts ranging from 0.2%-5.3% with the Hang Seng leading the losses which is now down more than 20% lower from its mid-February high. Crude oil tumbled nearly 9% for its biggest weekly loss in more than nine months as the Delta variant drags on fuel demand while supply is steadily increasing. Dollar index surged 1% for its best week in two months and hit a 9-1/2 month high.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty slipped 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, hitting lowest level in a week. Sensex lost 300 points to settle at 55329 while Nifty finished at 16450, down 118 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices nosedived 2% and 2.2% respectively to hit their lowest in more than a month and half. Except 2.2% higher FMCG index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Metal index being the top loser, down 6.9%, followed by 3.9% lower Basic Materials index.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 2287 cr and 913 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 544 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 119 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 74.39/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty eased 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, snapping two-week winning streak. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 1.7% and 3.4% respectively, extending the losing streak to second and third straight week respectively.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are 1.7% each while Shanghai is up 0.7%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 140 points higher start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 16700 continued to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which was required for a fresh upmove. We had also said that 16350-16375, the erstwhile resistance zone, would be the immediate support zone to eye.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 16376, closed at 16450, and is set to open above 16550 today.

 

16600 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, upon crossover of which, 16701, the top made last week, would be the next upside level to eye.

 

16376, the low made Friday, is now the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 35800 is the immediate resistance on the hourly chart, above which, 36300 would be the bigger hurdle to eye; 34926, the low made on Friday, is the immediate support.

Friday, August 20, 2021

NIFTY SET TO PLUNGE AFTER ACHIEVING 16700 TARGET

 

NIFTY SET TO PLUNGE AFTER ACHIEVING 16700 TARGET

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 plunged 1.1% each while Nasdaq slipped 0.9% on Wednesday as the minutes from the July Fed meeting showed the central bank has started eyeing tapering its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases before the year-end.

 

Yesterday, after falling nearly a percent in the initial trade, Dow rebounded to end 0.2% lower while S & P 500 and Nasdaq managed to end higher by 0.1%.

 

Weekly jobless claims came in at 348,000, below the 365,000 expected and set a new pandemic-era low. However, the Philly Fed manufacturing index came in worse than estimates.

 

US 10-year treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 1.243%. Dollar index, after hitting a 9-month peak of 93.587, settled 0.3% higher at 93.587. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,778.65 per ounce.

 

Oil dropped for a sixth-straight session to hit lowest level since May. WTI slid 2.7% to settle at $63.69, and Brent declined 2.6% to $66.45 per barrel.

 

European markets slid 1.2%-2.6%.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising half a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices nosedived eight tenth of a percent to end lower by three tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 55629, down 163 points while Nifty lost 46 points to finish at 16568. Nifty mid-cap index rose 0.3% but the small-cap index fell 0.3%, extending the losing streak to fourth straight day. BSE Bankex and Metal indices tumbled 1% each, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Energy index was the top gainer, up 0.3%, followed by 0.24% higher FMCG and Oil & Gas indices.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 595 cr and 41 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 1002 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 729 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to end at 74.24/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.7%-1.1% and SGX Nifty is trading around 16350, suggesting around 220 points lower start when compared to Wednesday's close of Nifty future.

 

In Wednesday's report we had said that 16700 was the next upside target and had advised trailing the stop-loss to 16440.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 16701, reversed to touch a low of 16535 before closing at 16568. The benchmark is set to open below 16400 today.

 

16700 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

 

After the big gap-down opening as suggested by SGX Nifty, 16350-16375, the erstwhile resistance zone, would be the immediate support zone to eye. Below 16350, 16162, the low made last week, would be the next important support.

 

Meanwhile, the low made in the first hour should be used as the stop-loss for trading longs.

 

36300 continues to be immediate hurdle for Banknifty; 35370, 34600 are supports.