Tuesday, August 30, 2022

17100 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 17575 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

17100 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 17575 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.6%-1%, extending Friday's plunge, amid increasing concerns over rising rates and tighter U.S. monetary policy.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose nearly 8 bps to 3.114%. Dollar index, after hitting a fresh 20-year high of 109.47, eased to end marginally lower at 108.74. Gold was flat at $1737 per ounce.

 

Oil surged as potential OPEC+ output cuts and conflict in Libya helped to offset a strong U.S. dollar and a dire outlook for U.S. growth. Brent crude rose 4.1% to $105.09 a barrel and WTI crude gained 4.2%, to $ 97.01.

 

European markets fell 0.6%-0.9%

 

AT HOME

 

After opening with cuts of more than 2%, benchmark indices recouped some of the losses to end lower by nearly a percent and half and closed at the lowest level in a month. Sensex settled at 57972, down 861 points while Nifty lost 246 points to finish at 17312. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.8% and 1% respectively. Except 0.4% and 0.1% higher FMCG and Energy indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with IT and Teck indices leading the losses, down 3.3% and 3.1% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 561 cr, 1122 cr and 1532 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 144 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to end at 79.96/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.8% but Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 1.5% and 0.2% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 40 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 34-DMA, placed around 17050, was the next downside level to eye while 17726, the top made last week, would work as immediate hurdle.

 

Nifty, after making a bottom of 17166, rebounded to end at 17312.

 

34-DMA, which has moved up to around 17100, continues to be downside support to eye; 17575 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

37944, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support for Banknifty, upon breach of which, 34-DMA, placed around 37500, would be next support; 38846, the upper end of the gap created by yesterday's gap-down opening, would be immediate hurdle above which 39471, the top made last week, would be the next upside level to eye.

Monday, August 29, 2022

A BIG GAP-DOWN AWAITS

 

A BIG GAP-DOWN AWAITS

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices nosedived 3%-4% on Friday after Fed Chairman Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation.

 

The U.S. economy will need tight monetary policy “for some time” before inflation is under control, which means slower growth, a weaker job market and “some pain” for households and businesses, Powell said.

 

Personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — rose 6.3% y-o-y, down from a gain of 6.8% in June. U.S. consumer sentiment improved further in August and households’ near-term inflation expectations fell to an eight-month low.

 

US 10-year treasury yield inched up 1 bps to 3.043%. Dollar index, after touching a low of 107.58, rebounded to end 0.4% higher at 108.83. Gold slipped 1.2% to $1737 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures rose $1.65 to settle at $100.99 a barrel and WTI crude futures rose 54 cents to settle at $93.06 a barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.7%-2.3%.

 

For the week, US indices fell 4%-4.4%, extending the losing streak to second consecutive week.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising nearly a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices gave away most of the gains through the session to end just marginally higher. Sensex settled at 58833, up 59 points while Nifty added 36 points to finish at 17558. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Metal and Consumer Durables indices climbed 1.6% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and FMCG indices were the top losers, down 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 51 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1020 cr and 604 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 454 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 1 paise to end at 79.87/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 1.4% and 1.1% respectively, snapping a 5-week winning streak.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.5%-2.8% with Nikkei leading the losses. SGX Nifty is suggesting nearly 350 points lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 17800 continued to be important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which was required for confirming a "Buy" on hourly chart. We had also said that 17345, the low made Tuesday, continued to be immediate support.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17685, slipped to end at 17558 and is set to open near 17200 today.

 

34-DMA, placed around 17050, would be the next downside level to eye after today's big gap-down opening; 17726, the top made last week, would work as immediate hurdle.

 

37950, the low made last week, is the support for Banknifty, upon breach of which, 34-DMA, placed around 37400, would be next downside level to eye; 39471, the top made last week, would work as immediate hurdle.

Friday, August 26, 2022

17800-17345 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

 

17800-17345 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices climbed 1%-1.7% ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

 

Jobless claims drifted lower in the week ending Aug. 20. A revision for second-quarter GDP showed a smaller decline.

 

US 10-year treasury yield fell 8 bps to 3.03%. Dollar index fell 0.2% to 108.42. Gold rose 0.4% to $1758 per ounce.

 

Brent crude settled at $99.34 a barrel, shedding $1.88, or 1.9% and WTI crude settled at $92.52 a barrel, losing $2.37, or 2.5%.

 

In Europe, FTSE and DAX gained 0.1% and 0.4% respectively while CAC fell 0.1%. Germany’s Ifo Institute’s Business Climate Index fell in August to 88.5, down from 88.7 in July.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising seven tenth of a percent in the first half, benchmark indices tumbled later to end with cuts of half a percent, snapping a 2-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 58774, down 310 points while Nifty lost 82 points to finish at 17522. Nifty mid-cap index fell 0.1% but small-cap index gained 0.4%. BSE Realty and Consumer Durables indices gained 1.5% and 0.9% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 0.9% each.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 369 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 2011 cr and 1780 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 334 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 7 paise to end at 79.88/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.25%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 85 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17345, the low made Tuesday, continued to be immediate support and 17800 continued to be immediate hurdle.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17726, plunged to 17487 before closing at 17522. The benchmark is set to open near 17600 today.

 

17800 continues to be important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for confirming a "Buy" on hourly chart; 17345, the low made Tuesday, continues to be immediate support.

 

39471, the top made yesterday, is immediate hurdle for Banknifty, above which, 39759, the top made last week, would be next target; 38600-38550 is immediate support zone.

Thursday, August 25, 2022

17800-17345 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

 

17800-17345 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.2%-0.4%, with Dow and S & P 500 snapping a 3-day losing streak, ahead of the three-day Jackson Hole economic symposium that starts Thursday with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell slated to speak Friday morning.

 

Pending home sales declined 1% month-on-month and 19.9% y-o-y.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 6 bps to 3.109%. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 108.60. Gold rose 0.2% to $1751 per ounce.

 

Brent crude rose 1.6% to $101.70 and WTI gained 1.1% to reach $95.16 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.2% while DAX and CAC gained 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended marginally higher after a rangebound but choppy session, extending the winning streak to second straight day. Sensex settled at 59085, up 54 points while Nifty added 27 points to finish at 17604. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. BSE Realty index surged 1.7%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.9% higher Industrials and Telecom indices. IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 0.2% each.


 

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 23 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1329 cr and 2239 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 322 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 79.81/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Market in Hong Kong is shut today while Nikkei and Shanghai are up nearly half a percent. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 70 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17345, the low made Tuesday, was the immediate support while 17800 continued to be immediate hurdle. Nifty, after touching a low of 17499, rebounded to end at 17604 and is set to open above 17650 today.

 

17345, the low made Tuesday, continues to be immediate support; 17800 continues to be immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 37950, the low made Tuesday, continues to be immediate support; 39200 continues to be immediate hurdle, upon sustained trading above which, 39759, the top made last week, would be the next target.

 

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

17345 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 17800 IS THE HURDLE

 

17345 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 17800 IS THE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.5% and 0.2% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight day, while Nasdaq ended flat.

 

The S&P Global flash composite PMI for August dropped to 45, the lowest since February 2021. US New home sales fell 12.6% in July, about 10 percentage points more than expected.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 3 bps to 3.05%. Dollar index fell 0.4% to 108.51, snapping 4-day winning streak. Gold rose 0.7% to $1748 per ounce.

 

Brent crude advanced 3.9% to $100.22 a barrel and WTI crude rose 3.7% to $93.74 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE dipped 0.6% while DAX and CAC fell 0.3% each. Eurozone August flash PMI showed that business activity contracted for a second straight month.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling eight tenth of a percent at the open, benchmark indices reversed to end higher by half a percent, snapping a 2-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 59031, up 257 points while Nifty finished at 17577, up 86 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices surged 1.1% each. Except 1.7% and 1.4% lower IT and Teck indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended higher, with Metal and Auto indices on the top, up 2.1% and 1.7% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 563 cr and 367 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 110 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 185 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 79.86/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto 0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 25 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17330, the 23.6% retracement level of the entire 15183-17992 upmove, was the next support for Nifty while 17800 was the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts could be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 17345, rebounded to end at 17577.

 

17345, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support; 17800 continues to be immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 37950, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support; 39200 continues to be immediate hurdle.

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

17500 ACHIEVED; 17350 NEXT

 

17500 ACHIEVED; 17350 NEXT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices nosedived 1.9%-2.6%, with the Dow and S & P 500 suffering their worst fall since June 16, on concerns over more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 4 bps to 3.018%. Dollar index surged 0.8% 108.96. Gold slipped 0.6% to $1736 per ounce.

 

Oil prices, after falling nearly 4%, reversed to end higher, after Saudi energy minister said OPEC+ could cut production to confront market challenges. WTI gained 1.2% to $90.72 and Brent rose 0.8% to $96.55 per barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.2%-2.3%

 

Earlier, China's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate and lowered the mortgage reference by a bigger margin.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices tumbled 1.5% each, extending Friday's steep fall and closing at the lowest level after 5th August. Sensex settled at 58773, down 872 points while Nifty lost 267 points to finish at 17490. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices nosedived 2% and 1.6% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Metal and Realty indices leading the losses, down 2.7% and 2.5% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 454 cr and 214 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 542 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 85 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 8 paise to end at 79.86/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.1%-1.2% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 80 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17500 was the next downside level to eye and had advised initiaing shorts with the stop-loss of 17992.

 

Nifty nosedived all the way to 17467 before closing at 17490, achieving the target mentioned above and vindicating our view. The benchmark is set to open near 17400 today.

 

17330, the 23.6% retracement level of the entire 15183-17992 upmove, is the next support for Nifty; 17800 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 38000, the 23.6% retracement level of the entire upmove since mid-June, is the next support, below which 37250 would be next downside level to eye; 39200 is immediate hurdle.

Monday, August 22, 2022

17500 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 17992 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

17500 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 17992 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices nosedived 0.9%-2% as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting and comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard indicated that the central bank would likely continue hiking rates in the near term.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 9 bps to 2.976%. Dollar index jumped 0.6% to 108.10, its highest since July 15. Gold fell 0.7% to $1747 per ounce, extending the losing streak to fifth consecutive session.

 

Brent crude futures settled rose 13 cents to $96.72 a barrel and WTI crude ended 27 cents higher at $90.77.

 

In Europe, FTSE was falt while DAX and CAC fell 1.1% and 0.9% respectively.

 

Japan’s July headline inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in June. That was above expectations of 2.2% and higher than the Bank of Japan’s goal of 2.0%.

 

For the week, Dow eased 0.2% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.2% and 2.6% respectively. In Europe, FTSE rose 0.7% but DAX and CAC fell 1.8% and 0.9% respectively. In Asia, Nikkei and Nifty rose 1.3% and 0.3% respectively but Hang Seng and Shanghai dipped 2% and 0.6% respectively.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices plunged 1.1% each, suffering the worst cut since 22nd June and with Nifty snapping 8-session winning streak. Sensex settled at 59646, down 651 points while Nifty lost 198 points to finish at 17758. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. BSE Realty and Metal indices tumbled 2.1% and 1.8% respectively, becoming top losers among sectoral indices, while Power and Utilities indices were the top gainers, up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1111 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1647 cr and 1358 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1633 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 10 paise to end at 79.77/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty rose 0.3% each, extending the winning streak to fifth consecutive week.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 0.6% and 0.9% while Shanghai is marginally higher. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 90 points lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 18115, the top made in April, continued to be next upside level to eye while 17700 continued to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17992, plunged to 17710 before closing at 17758 and is set to open below 17700 today.

 

17500, around which a trendline adjoining bottoms made on 14th July and 27th July is placed, is be the next downside level to eye; 17992, the top made on Friday, is the immediate hurdle. Trading longs should be cut and shorts can be initiated with the stop-loss of 17992.

 

38200 is the downside level to eye for Banknifty; 39759, the top made Friday, is the immediate hurdle.

 

Friday, August 19, 2022

18115 IS NEXT TARGET; 17700 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

18115 IS NEXT TARGET; 17700 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices rose 0.1%-0.2%.

 

US 10-year treasury yield eased 1.5 bps to 2.886%. Dollar index jumped 0.8% to 107.49. Gold inched 0.1% lower to $1759 per ounce.

 

Initial jobless claims fell 2000 to 250,000 for the week ended Aug. 13 and the prior period’s data was revised sharply lower. Existing home sales dropped nearly 6% in July.

 

European markets gained 0.4%-0.5%.  July’s final inflation print confirmed that annual consumer price increases across the 19-member currency bloc hit a record high 8.9%.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling half a percent in the morning, benchmark indices recouped all the losses in noon to end marginally higher. Sensex settled at 60298, up 38 points while Nifty added 12 points to finish at 17956. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% each. BSE Realty and Utilities indices gained the most among the sectoral indices, up 1.8% and 1.1% respectively while Oil & Gas IT indices were the top losers, down 0.8% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1706 cr, 1652 cr and 1431 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 471 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 23 paise to end at 79.67/$.

 

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is up 0.3% while Nikkei and Shanghai are up 0.1% each. SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 18115, the top made in April, is the next upside level to eye and had advised trailing stop-loss in longs to 17700.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 17852, rebounded to end at 17956.

 

18115, the top made in April, continues to be next upside level to eye; 17700 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 39760, the 78.6% retracement level of the entire 41830-34018 fall, followed by 40160, the top made in November 2021, are the upside levels to eye; 39200 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

 

Thursday, August 18, 2022

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17700

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17700

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.5%-1.25%, with the Dow snapping 5-day winning streak, after digesting minutes of the latest Fed meeting.

 

Minutes showed that the central bank would continue its aggressive hiking campaign until it can tame inflation. At the same time, the Fed also indicated that it could soon slow the speed of its tightening, while also acknowledging the state of the economy and risk to the downside for gross domestic product growth.

 

Retail sales for July were flat, compared with the estimate for a 0.1% gain.

Excluding autos, sales increased 0.4% against expectations for no gain.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 9 bps to 2.90%. Dollar index inched up 0.2% to 106.67. Gold fell 0.8% to $1761 per ounce.

 

Brent crude settled $1.31, or 1.42% higher at $93.65 per barrel and WTI crude rose $1.58, or 1.8%, to $88.11 per barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.3%-2%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose seven tenth of a percent each to close at the highest level in nearly 4-1/2 months. Sensex settled at 60260, up 418 points while Nifty added 119 points to finish at 17944. Nifty extended the winning streak to seventh consecutive session. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained half a percent each. Except 0.3% and 0.1% lower Auto and Capital Goods indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Telecom index on the top, up 1.8%, followed by 1.1% higher Teck and Consumer Durables indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 2347 cr and 7 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1030 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 510 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 21 paise to end at 79.44/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17850-17900, continued to be next target area, above which 18115, the top made in April, would be the next target. We had also advised trailing stop-loss in longs to 17575.

 

Nifty soared to touch a high of 17965 before closing at 17944.

 

18115, the top made in April, is the next upside level to eye; Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 17700, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 39760, the 78.6% retracement level of the entire 41830-34018 fall, followed by 40160, the top made in November 2021, are the upside levels to eye; 38900 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.