CNBC BAJAR - "BAJAR HELPLINE-09-05-2014"

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MY FIRST APPEARANCE ON CNBC BAJAR

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PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 02.05.2014

BANG ON TARGET

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended little changed yesterday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record finish, as markets awaited Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for April.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 344,000 last week. The four-week moving average gained 3,000 to 320,000. A separate report from the Commerce Department had consumer spending jumping the most in nearly five years in March, up 0.9%, while the Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 54.9 in April from 53.7 the month before.

European markets ended mixed. FTSE gained 0.4%, rising for the fourth straight day. A U.K. house price index showed prices soared 10.9 percent in April year-on-year, beating analysts' expectations. In addition, a manufacturing PMI survey for the U.K. showed a rise to 57.3 in April, versus estimates of 55.4 and a previous figure of 55.8.

Earlier, data showed that China's official PMI rose to 50.4 in April, just missing analysts' expectations, but better than March's 50.3.

Gold fell 1% to close at $1283. Crude-oil declined 40 cents to $99.4 a barrel.

AT HOME

After rising a percent in the morning trade, benchmark indices nosedived just under 2% from the top of the day, but cut some of the losses in last hour to finally end lower by nearly a fourth of a percent. Sensex settled at 22418, down 48 points while Nifty finished at 6696, down 19 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 1.1% and 1.6% respectively. BSE Realty index sank 5.3%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 2.1% cut in Power index. Auto and FMCG indices gained 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 454 cr and 51 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 267 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 6 cr.

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to close at 60.31/$.

India's core sector growth slowed to 2.5% in March from 7% y-o-y and 4.5% month-on-month.

Maruti reported 11.4% y-o-y dip in April sales at 97302 units. M & M too reported 12% dip in total sales at 36274 units. Hero Moto Corp however reported 14.5% jump at 5.71 lac units.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher opening for our market.

In our latest weekly as well as subsequent daily reports we had been mentioning that Nifty can retest the 6650-6665 bottom if sustains below 6773. We had also been mentioning that 6665 is the important near term support, a breach of which will break the higher-top higher-bottom formation on the daily chart. Nifty, on Friday, after touching a low of 6657, bounced back smartly to close at 6696, and is set to open about 30 points higher today, vindicating our view perfectly.

As long as Nifty holds 6665, the correction over past four should be seen as a healthy one.

Immediate resistance on the hourly chart is placed around 6780, a crossover of which would generate a buy signal on the hourly chart and would pave the way for the retest of the 6870 top made last week.

Traders are advised to wait for the crossover of 6780 for building fresh longs. Existing longs should carry a stop loss of 6665 on closing basis.

In the US, April employment report will be released today, which is expected to show an addition of 210000 jobs.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL INSIGHT - 25TH APRIL 2014

RETEST OF 6650 BOTTOM LIKELY BELOW 6773

THE WEEK GONE BY

In last week's report we had reiterated the importance of 6650 support and had added that 6819, the top made in the previous week, was the immediate resistance, above which 6900 would be the next target where the upward sloping trendline adjoining recent tops on the daily chart is placed.

Nifty resumed its upward journey and touched a high of 6870, but slipped sharply from there to end the week at 6783, gaining just 4 points compared to previous week's close.

OUTLOOK

6773, the low made on Friday, is the immediate support on the way down, a sustained trading below which can take Nifty back to the 6650 bottom. A breach of 6650, as we have been mentioning, would break the higher-top higher-bottom formation on the daily chart and would open up the space for the larger retracement of the entire 5933-6819 upmove.

On the way up, the upward sloping trendline adjoining recent tops on the daily chart presents a resistance around 6930. This would be the immediate target on the way up.

Traders are advised to lighten long positions if Nifty stays sustains below 6773.

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 13/09/2013

IIP SURPRISES ON THE WAY UP; CPI EASES FOR THE SECOND MONTH

WORLD MARKETS

US indices lost upto 0.4% yesterday, halting a seven-day win streak for the S&P 500 Index, as markets worried about developments related to Syria and Federal Reserve policy moves.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Geneva on Thursday for discussions with Russia’s foreign minister on a proposed plan under which Syria will turn over its chemical weapons to the international community.

Separately, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad said the U.S. needs to give up “its policy of threats” and stop shipping arms to Syrian rebels before his government surrenders its chemical weapons

First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ending Sept. 7, marking the lowest level since April 2006, but processing glitches involving two states clouded the reading, the Labor Department reported.

European markets ended flat to modestly lower as the region’s industrial output contracted more than forecast. Factory production in the region fell 1.5% from June, more than the 0.3% contraction forecast by economists.

Gold slid $33.20, or 2.4%, to $1,330.60 an ounce, while crude-oil added $1.04 to end at $108.60 a barrel

AT HOME

Profit booking set in after a heady run-up as benchmark indices, after a flattish start, saw a sustained downward move through the trading session to end lower by 1%. Sensex slipped 215 points to settle at 19781 while Nifty shut shop at 5850, down 62 points. BSE mid-cap index ended flat while the small-cap index gained 0.2%. Except 0.5% and 0.3% rise in BSE Realty and FMCG indices respectively, all other sectoral indices ended in red, with Metal index and Bankex leading the tally, giving away 2.5% and 1.9% respectively.

Rupee too retreated after five consecutive strong days to close at 63.50, the previous close being 63.38.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs. 931 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs. 344 cr and 310 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 395 cr.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading flat to modestly lower while SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

India's industrial output, after contracting for two consecutive months, grew at a four-month high of 2.6% in July against contraction of 0.1% in same month last year. Manufacturing, which constitutes over 75% of the index, grew at 3% this month compared to stagnation in July last year. The big surprise came from capital goods sector which rebounded by a robust 15.6% against a decline of 5.8% last July. Electricity grew at 5.2% v/s 2.8%.

CPI eased marginally in Aug to 9.52% in line with expectations from 9.64% in July, Food prices for consumers eased to 11.06% in Aug vs 11.24% in July.

6000, the level emnating from the downward sloping trendline adjoining 6230 and 6093, the tops made in May and July respectively, continues to be the immediate hurdle to watch on the way up. In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 5832, the low made Wednesday, is the immediate support. The benchmark, after touching a low of 5815, recovered to close at 5850. Next line of support below 5815 would come in the 5738-5688 region, which is the gap created by the gap up opening on Tuesday.

Economic data to watch today include retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment from the US.

POSITIONAL: BUY GAIL AT 312, SL 300, TARGET 332

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 12/09/2013

BROADER MARKET RALLIES WHILE NIFTY TAKES A PAUSE; IIP, CPI IN FOCUS TODAY

WORLD MARKETS

After a flat to negative start, US indices saw a sustained northward move through the session to end mixed with Dow and S & P rising 0.9% and 0.3% respectively while Nasdaq, dragged down by Apple, lost 0.1%.

Apple fell 5.4%, registering biggest decline since April, on concerns that its lower-priced iPhone would prove too pricey to succeed in emerging markets.

President Barack Obama’s decision to delay military action against Syria eased concerns, yet the issue remained on the back burner.

European markets ended flat to modestly higher , with the Stoxx Europe 600 index closing at the highest level since June 2008.

AT HOME

After a heady run-up of previous four sessions, yesterday was a day of consolidation as benchmark indices, after a rangebound but volatile trading session, ended little changed. Sensex in fact closed absolutely flat at 19997 while Nifty gained 16 points to settle at 5913. Broader market however outperformed significantly, as depicted by 1.3% and 1.1% rise in BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices respectively. BSE Metal and Realty indices gained the most among the sectoral indices, rising 3.3% and 2.7% respectively while FMCG and Consumer Durable indices were the top losers, down 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs. 586 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs. 273 cr and 315 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 386 cr.

Rupee appreciated for the fifth consecutive day to close at 63.38/$, the previous close being 63.84.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

As mentioned in yesterday's report, 6000, where the trendline adjoining two major tops on the weekly chart is placed, continues to be the next target. 5832, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support below which 5738-5688, the gap created by Tuesday's gap up opening, would be the next support zone. Traders are advised to trail stop loss in long positions to 5832 and book profit as 6000 approaches.

India's IIP for the month of July would be released today and is expected to show a contraction of 0.2% as against degrowth of 2.25% seen in June.

CPI for August would also come out today and is expected to ease a bit to 9.6% from 9.64% in July.