Tuesday, December 2, 2014

PRUDENT INVESTMENT IDEAS

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Prudent Investment iDea
SR. NO. RECO DATE STOCK AVERAGE
ENTRY PRICE
AVERAGE
EXIT PRICE
ABSOLUTE
NON-ANNUALISED
RETURN (%)
REMARK
1 3-Jan-12 J KUMAR INFRA 165 182.7 11  
2 31-Jan-12 PAREKH ALUMINEX  289 315 9  
3 2-Feb-12 AARTI IND 55 69.5 26  
4 2-Jun-12 DEWAN HOUSING 228.5 274.2 20  
5 2-Aug-12 BAJAJ FINANCE 785 926 18  
6 16-Feb-12 TATA GLOBAL 114.5 142 24  
7 21-Feb-12 AXIS BANK 1236 1482.5 20  
8 28-Feb-12 GODREJ IND 248.75 298 20  
9 7-Mar-12 CANFINEHOMES 109.5 131.5 20  
10 22-Mar-12 INDUSINDBANK 310.3 376.5 21  
11 2-Apr-12 LUPIN 514.5 610 19  
12 10-Apr-12 TDPOWER 292 350.4 20  
13 11-Apr-12 SHILPA MEDICARE 242.5 274 13  
14 16-Apr-12 BASF 616 738.5 20  
15 26-Apr-12 IFGL REFRACTORIES 43.75 55.4 27  
16 9-May-12 NAVIN FLOURO 336 403.7 20  
17 24-May-12 RANBAXY 514 616.5 20  
18 29-May-12 JYOTHY LAB 210 251 20  
19 7-Jun-12 V-GUARD 210 259.5 24  
20 11-Jun-12 HYDRABAD IND 370 469 27  
21 18-Jun-12 SUPRAJIT ENGG 24.65 31.2 27  
22 18-Jun-12 KARUR VYSYA BNAK 400 479.5 20  
23 27-Jun-12 ATUL 224 258 15  
24 28-Jun-12 DISHMAN PHARMA 63.25 74.5 18  
25 13-Jul-12 TUBE INVESTMENT 153 182.5 19  
26 16-Jul-12 DLINKINDIA 26 31.15 20  
27 1-Aug-12 AMBUJA CEMENT 183 219.3 20  
28 9-Aug-12 EID PARRY 212 245.4 16 50% BOOKED
29 13-Aug-12 M & M FINANCE 760 912 20  
30 21-Aug-12 BAYER CROP 961 1153.5 20  
31 23-Aug-12 ICICI BANK 957.5 1148.5 20  
32 24-Aug-12 UB HOLDING 94.5 113.35 20  
33 4-Sep-12 INDIA GLYCOL 165 199.1 21  
34 14-Sep-12 MOTHERSON SUMI 135.3 161.825 20  
35 17-Sep-12 M & M 793 950 20  
36 20-Sep-12 CMC 1120 1342.5 20  
37 26-Sep-12 SELAN EXPLORATION 295.5 355 20  
38 26-Sep-12 THERMAX 564 675 20  
39 28-Sep-12 EXIDE 143 171.85 20  
40 1-Oct-12 MARUTI 1360 1632.5 20  
41 1-Oct-12 INOX 69.8 83.5 20  
42 8-Oct-12 LLOYD ELEC 58 69.6 20  
43 10-Sep-12 AVT NAT PROD 20 24 20  
44 15-Oct-12 GMDC 199     CALL OPEN
45 16-Oct-12 GIC HOUSING 103 127.2 23  
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Prudent Investment iDea
SR. NO. RECO DATE STOCK AVERAGE
ENTRY PRICE
AVERAGE
EXIT PRICE
ABSOLUTE
NON-ANNUALISED
RETURN (%)
REMARK
46 18-Oct-12 GREENPLY 252 302.5 20  
47 26-Oct-12 TALWALKAR 194.5 242 24  
48 2-Nov-12 IDFC 154.9     CALL OPEN
49 12-Nov-12 NAVNEET 60.2 72.825 21  
50 26-Nov-12 ABIRLA NUVO 1005 1204.5 20  
51 3-Dec-12 NETWORK 18 44.5 53.4 20  
52 3-Dec-12 EROS  209 251.45 20  
53 6-Dec-12 NESCO 729.5 875.5 20  
54 10-Dec-12 SOUTH INDIAN BANK 24.8 29.825 20  
55 31-Dec-12 CORPORATION BANK 423     CALL OPEN
56 1-Jan-13 SBI 2298.5 2772.5 21  
57 1-Jan-13 LIC HOUSING 280.2 336 20  
58 4-Jan-13 VIJAYA BANK 59.5     CALL OPEN
59 4-Jan-13 TATA CHEM 331.5 397.82 20  
60 7-Jan-13 JSW STEEL 805 968.5 20  
61 9-Jan-13 ESCORTS 72.3 87.575 21  
62 1-Feb-13 BPCL 390 468.25 20  
63 8-Feb-13 PFC 201.2 243.2 21  
64 14-May-13 MPHASIS 409 471.4 15 50% BOOKED
65 27-May-13 ZYDUS WELLNESS 580 697.5 20  
66 6-Jun-13 JM FINANCIAL 26.5 32.1 21  
67 11-Jun-13 KPIT 117.5 141.625 21  
68 23-Jul-13 RELIANCE IND 881.5 1074.5 22  
69 23-Jul-13 HEXAWARE 107.85 129.525 20  
70 24-Jul-13 BATA 905 1085 20  
71 12-Aug-13 HERO MOTO 1820 2186 20  
72 21-Aug-13 ARVIND REMEDIES  41 49.2 20  
73 4-Sep-13 PERSISTENT SYSTEM  587 704.5 20  
74 4-Oct-13 AMAR RAJa 316 379 20  
75 10-Oct-13 NIIT TECH  287.5 344.5 20  
76 17-Oct-13 BAJAJ AUTO 2040 2448 20  
77 28-Oct-13 ZENSAR 273 327.5 20  
78 13-Nov-13 FINOLEX CABLE  68 81.6 20  
79 18-Nov-13 DIVI'S LAB 1140 1368 20  
80 22-Nov-13 FIEM  240 282.05 18  
81 2-Dec-13 ATUL 390 468 20  
82 12-Dec-13 CCL PRODUCT 38.6 47.125 22  
83 23-Dec-13 CADILA 800 960 20  
84 23-Dec-13 NBCC 151 181.2 20  
85 26-Dec-13 MCLEOD 305     CALL OPEN
86 1-Jan-14 BAJAJ FINSERVE 716 858.5 20  
87 3-Mar-14 AARTI DRUGS 260 311.875 20  
88 10-Mar-14 AXIS BANK 1380 1663.5 21  
89 24-Mar-14 HDFC BANK 730 872.6 20  
90 2-Apr-14 INDUSINDBANK 500 598.25 20  
91 10-Apr-14 GIC HOUSING 115.5 139.4 21  
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Prudent Investment iDea
SR. NO. RECO DATE STOCK AVERAGE
ENTRY PRICE
AVERAGE
EXIT PRICE
ABSOLUTE
NON-ANNUALISED
RETURN (%)
REMARK
92 25-Apr-14 CHOLA INVESTMENT 296 355 20  
93 20-May-14 HDFC 886 1063.5 20  
94 21-May-14 NOIDA TOLL 31.5 36.2 15 50% BOOKED
95 26-May-14 HIND ZINC 157.75 181.4 15 50% BOOKED
96 26-May-14 ZICOM 80.5 97.1 21  
97 26-May-14 MARICO 236.5 283.8 20  
98 3-Jun-14 SSLT 273.6   CALL OPEN
99 4-Jun-14 HEG 259 310.8 20  
100 5-Jun-14 REL INFRA 737.5     CALL OPEN
101 4-Jun-14 KPR MILLS 174.5 208.75 20  
102 5-Jun-14 PRAJ 74.5     CALL OPEN
103 9-Jun-14 ROLTA 108 124 15 50% BOOKED
104 9-Jun-14 PTC INDIA 92.25 103.8 15 50% BOOKED
105 11-Jun-14 NAHAR SPINNING 150 172.5 15 50% BOOKED
106 12-Jun-14 GODREJ IND 335-305     CALL OPEN
107 19-Jun-14 VIP IND 108.8 125.1 15 50% BOOKED
108 2-Jul-14 DEEPAK FERT 154.5 178.9 16 50% BOOKED
109 4-Jul-14 UCO BANK 109   CALL OPEN
110 10-Jul-14 GAIL 444.1 510.75   50% BOOKED
111 17-Jul-14 EMAMI 546 655.25 20  
112 21-Jul-14 DISHMAN PHARMA 135.3 162.35 20  
113 22-Jul-14 U-FLEX 129.25 155.12 20  
114 04-Aug-14 IDEA 157.5     CALL OPEN
115 05-Aug-14 AXIS-IT & T 114 136.8 20  
116 18-Aug-14 CYIENT 407 491.5 21  
117 03-Sep-14 JYOTHY LAB 237 283.25 20  
118 10-Sep-14 DEEP IND 78     CALL OPEN
119 17-Sep-14 J KUMAR INFRA 316.5 376.8 20  
120 14-Oct-14 FEDERAL BANK 140-126     CALL OPEN
121 07-Nov-14 BANK OF BARODA 968-900     CALL OPEN
122 10-Nov-14 THERMAX 1012-950     CALL OPEN
123 14-Nov-14 RCF 70-63     CALL OPEN
124 24-Nov-14 REDINGTON 114     CALL OPEN
125 28-Nov-14 PNB 1010     CALL OPEN
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Prudent Broking Services (P) Ltd. and is being distributed in India by Prudent Broking Services (P) Ltd., a registered broker dealer. The information in the document has been compiled by the research department. Due care has been taken in preparing the above document. However, this document is not, and should not be construed, as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities. Any act of buying, selling or otherwise dealing in any securities referred to in this document shall be at investors sole risk and responsibility. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, without prior permission from the Company. To unsubscribe, send a mail to equityresearch@prudentcorporate.com

OIL, GOLD REBOUND; ALL EYES ON RBI

OIL, GOLD REBOUND; ALL EYES ON RBI

WORLD MARKETS

US indices plunged between 0.3%-1.4% as a lacklustre start to the holiday shopping season overshadowed data that had a measure of U.S. factory activity slowing less than expected in November.

Americans spent about 11% less during the long holiday weekend ahead of Cyber Monday's online sales, according to survey results released Sunday by the National Retail Federation. Stocks cut their losses after the Institute for Supply Management said its national factory activity index dropped to 58.7 last month from 59 in October, with the latest figure beating expectations of 57.8.

Nymex oil jumped 4.3% to settle at $69, marking its best 1-day gain since August 2012 on reports that tumbling prices may have started to affect the fast-growing U.S. shale oil industry. Earlier, it hit a five-year low at $63.72. Brent crude rose 3.4% to $72.5 a barrel. Gold surged 3.6% to $1218 an ounce. Earlier, the yellow metal touched a low of $1143 an ounce after Swiss voters on Sunday rejected a proposal to lift central bank gold holdings to 20 percent of its forex reserves.

Rating agency Moody's cut Japan's sovereign rating.

European markets fell between 0.2%-1.6%. Markit's final November manufacturing Purchasing managers' Index for the euro zone stood at 50.1, its lowest level since June 2013 and missing forecasts of 50.4. Three of the euro zone's largest economies – Germany, France and Italy – saw manufacturing activity contract in October.

Earlier China's official factory index dropped to 50.3 for November, while the Markit index had it at 50.
                                                             
AT HOME

After a positive start, benchmark indices saw a sustained downward move through the session to end lower by about four tenth of a percent, breaking 3-day winning streak. Sensex lost 134 points to settle at 28560 while Nifty finished at 8556, down 32 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.1% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Consumer Durable index climbed 3.3%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.8% rise in IT index. Oil & Gas and Power indices were the top losers, giving away 2.6% and 2.2% respectively.

Rupee ended unchanged at 62.02/$.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 12 cr and 304 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 350 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 555 cr.

India's HSBC manufacturing PMI climbed to a 21-month high of 53.30 in November from 51.6 in October.

Maruti sold 1.1 lakh units in November, which was a growth of 6.8% month-on-month and 19.5% y-o-y. Ashok Leyland sold 7732 units, a growth of 44% y-o-y. TVS Motor sales jumped 36% y-o-y to 2.2 lakh units. Tata Motors reported 2% growth at 41720 units. M & M disappointed with 13% y-o-y degrowth at 34292 units.

India's core sector, comprising of eight core sectors, which contribute about 38% to the IIP, grew at 6.3% in October, against a growth of 1.9% in September, led by coal and electricity.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower opening for our market.

Nifty yesterday touched a high of 8323, coming in very close to the target of 8640 we had given after 8520 target was achieved. From there it witnessed profit booking and finally settled at 8556.

On Friday, when Nifty ended at record high, RSI on daily chart made a lower top, giving rise to negative divergence. This indicates that there is fatigue setting in. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8500, which should serve as the stop loss for trading longs. 8640 continues to be immediate target above which 8730 would be the next target to eye.


All eyes would be on RBI monetary policy review today. Given the central bank's aggressive stance to achieve 6% inflation by Jan 2016, markets are not expecting rates to be cut in this policy but the tone of the policy statement is likely to be dovish to build in a case for a rate cut going ahead. There is some expectation of an SLR cut though.

Monday, December 1, 2014

OIL TUMBLES FURTHER; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8490

OIL TUMBLES FURTHER; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8490

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended mixed on Friday with Dow closing absolutely flat, S & P 500 losing 0.2% and Nasdaq gaining 0.1% as retailers gained while energy stocks plunged on the back of decline in oil.

The S&P 500 Energy Sector plunged more than 6%, the biggest since August 8, 2011.   Cheveron and Exxon Mobil tumbled 5% and 3% respectively while Wal-Mart climbed 3%.

Nymex crude, after plunging more than 6% on Thursday fell another 2.5% to $67.32. Brent oil fell 3.3% to $70.15.

European markets ended mixed with modest changes.  Royal Dutch and BP lost 2.5% and 1.5% respectively, as the price of Brent crude oil hovered near a four-year low. Data on Friday showed that euro zone inflation for November stood at 0.3%, down from 0.4% in October. This boosted expectations that the ECB could try to bolster the region's economy with further stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Italian unemployment numbers showed at uptick to a record high of 13.2 percent in October.

For the week, Dow and S & P 500 ended modestly higher, while Nasdaq gained 1.7%, extending the winning streak to sixth straight week. In Europe, FTSE closed down around 0.3%, the CAC climbed 0.9%, while the DAX posted strong gains, ending up over 2.4%.

AT HOME

On Friday, after a big gap up opening, benchmark indices added some more gains through the session to end higher by about a percent, marking fresh record high.  Sensex soared 255 points to settle at 28694 while Nifty finished at 8588, up 94 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1% and 0.3% respectively. Except a 0.2% and 0.05% cut in BSE Teck and IT indices respectively, all other sectoral indices ended higher, with Bankex and Realty indices leading the tally, climbing 2.9% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 936 cr, 1934 cr and 109 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 439 cr.

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 62.025/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.3% each, extending the winning streak to sixth straight week.

India's second quarter GDP grew by 5.3%, down from 5.7% in the first quarter but better than the estimated 5% mark.

The government’s fiscal deficit for the first seven months of this financial year totalled Rs 4.76 lakh crore, a staggering 89.6% cent of the target of Rs 5.31 lakh crore for the entire financial year.

In a surprise move on Friday, government scrapped 80:20 schemes for gold imports, which mandated export of 20% of all gold imported into the country.

Oil marketing companies yesterday cut petrol and diesel prices by 91 paise and 84 paise respectively.

OUTLOOK

China's November official manufacturing PMI has come in at a six-month low of 50.3, missing a forecast for a 50.6 figure and down from the 50.8 reading in October. The HSBC version has come in at 50, touching a six-month low, down from 50.4 in October.

Oil is down another 2% today with Brent trading at $68.3/barrel and Nymex around $64.70.

Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher while other Asian markets are trading lower. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points lower opening for our market.

After Nifty achieved 8520 target, we had been working with the next target of 8640. Nifty on Friday touched a high of 8617, coming in very close to this target and finally settled at 8588.


8640 continues to be immediate target above which 8730 would be the next target to eye. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8490, with the stop loss of which trading longs can be held on to.