NIFTY AGAIN RESISTED NEAR 7540; 7424 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY AGAIN RESISTED NEAR 7540; 7424 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 ended little changed while Nasdaq lost 0.3% yesterday on the back of lower oil prices and volatility in the European markets.

European markets reversed sharp gains to end with cuts of 0.5%-2.3% following comments by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and a sharp slip in commodity prices.

ECB announced a range of measures including a cut to its main refinancing rate by 5 bps to 0.0 percent and a cut to its deposit rate by 10 bps to -0.4%. The bank also extended its monthly asset purchases from 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros.

Equities however reversed gains after the ECB President Draghi, at a conference following the policy decision, said he did not anticipate the need to reduce rates further, but added that new facts could change the situation. This dampened "risk-on" sentiment and the euro, which had earlier fallen to $1.08, reversed to $1.11. Dollar index fell more than a percent while Gold rallied $15 to $1273 an ounce.

Oil prices fell following reports that an OPEC meeting aimed at freezing output appeared unlikely to go ahead without Iran's participation. Nymex oil settled down 45 cents at $37.84 while Brent lost 2.5% to finish at $40.05 a barrel.

US weekly jobless claims declined 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000 for the week ended March 5, the lowest reading since mid-October.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices could not extend Wednesday's smart rebound and ended lower by about six tenth of a percent in yesterday's trade. Sensex lost 171 points to settle at 24623 while Nifty finished at 7486, down 46 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Except a 0.4% and 0.3% rise in BSE Metal and Basic Material indices respectively, all the sectoral indices ended in red with Capital Goods and Energy indices leading the tally, down 1.7% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1063 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 29 cr and 636 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 598 cr.

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 67.065/$.

The Union Cabinet yesterday approved a new Hydrocarbon Exploration & Licensing Policy that aims to boost exploration & production (E&P) activity and iron out issues faced by upstream oil companies. The new policy contains several norms that will smoothen the process of licensing to exploration, by steps such as offering a uniform license for all fuels such as natural gas, crude oil or shale. Explorers will also get freedom to price petroleum products procured from hard-to-explore deepwater fields as per market rates. Further, the Cabinet also approved extending licenses of 28 small- and medium-sized oil and gas fields.

Also approved was amendment in Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation Act to allow transfer of mining lease for captive mines, which will pave the way for merger and acquisition activities in the cement sector. Earlier, the act allowed transfer of mining lease for auctioned mines only.

Rajya Sabha yesterday passed the Real Estate Regulator (Regulation and Development) Bill, 10 years after it was tabled in the Parliament. The Bill has been drafted to protect the interest of consumers and proposes several measures for the same.  With the passage of the Bill, builders will now have to quote prices based on carpet area and not super built-up. Building plans cannot be changed (now) without consent from 66% of buyers. In the case of defaults or delays, the same rate of interest will be levied for promoters as well as buyers. The Bill also seeks to establish fast track dispute resolution mechanism.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is down a percent while Shanghai is lower by half a percent. Other Asian markets are little changed and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

As we have been mentioning, 7540 and 7550 were the bottoms made in September and December 2015 respectively and that is why we had advised booking profits in trading longs and wait for the decisive crossover of this hurdle before taking a fresh view.

The benchmark, after touching a high of 7547 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 7486, giving credence to above hypothesis.

7540-7550 continues to be immediate hurdle above which 7600, which is the immediate previous top on the weekly chart, would be the next resistance to eye. A decisive crossover of 7600 would open up the space for next big upmove as next meaningful resistance will come around 7840 where 34-week moving average is placed. 7424, the bottom made on Wednesday, is the immediate support, a breach of which would break the higher-top higher-bottom formation on the hourly chart and would pave the way for the further correction.

IIP for the month of January would be released today and is expected to show a contraction 0.15% as against contraction of 1.3% in the previous month.

NIFTY REBOUNDS AFTER HOLDING 7380 SUPPORT

NIFTY REBOUNDS AFTER HOLDING 7380 SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.2%-0.6%, helped by a rise in oil prices.

Energy sector led the gainers as Nymex oil jumped $1.8 or 5% to $38.29 a barrel, its highest settle since Dec. 4. Weekly crude inventories showed a rise of 3.9 mn barrels but a drop of 4.5 mn barrels in gasoline inventories. Statement by an Iraqi oil official that OPEC and non-OPEC members would meet in Moscow on March 20 to discuss an output freeze, also boosted the sentiment. Brent climbed 4% to $41.07 a barrel.

In economic news, US weekly mortgage application volume increased 0.2%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in January, while sales declined 1.3%.

European markets ended higher by 0.2%-1.1%

AT HOME

After falling about three fourth of a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices climbed nearly a percent and half from the bottom of the day to end higher by six tenth of a percent, with Nifty closing at the highest level since 1st February 2016. Sensex settled at 24794, up 135 points while Nifty added 46 points to finish at 7532. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.9% and 0.04% respectively. BSE Capital Goods and Realty indices climbed 1.6% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Metal and Consumer Durable indices lost 0.8% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 463 cr and 155 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1253 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 824 cr.

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 67.21/$.

OUTLOOK

China's February CPI has come in at 1.6% MoM Vs expectation of 1.9%.

Barring a 0.7% cut in Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto a percent with Nikkei leading the gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated our view that 7540, the erstwhile support, would now act as the hurdle, a crossover of which is required for fresh upmove. We had also said that 7380, the lower level of the gap created by the gap up opening on Thursday, is the immediate support.

The benchmark, after touching a low of 7424 in the initial trade, rebounded smartly to end at 7532.

A higher opening today would take Nifty above 7540 hurdle. Upon sustained trading above 7540, 7600, which is the immediate previous top on the weekly chart would be the next target to eye. Upon a decisive crossover of 7600, next major target to eye would be 7840, where the 34-week moving average is placed.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 7450, which should serve as the stop loss for trading longs.

Key event to watch out today would be ECB policy meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi, is expected to announce more stimulative measures, with hopes of expansion of the asset purchase program and a possible further cut to the already negative deposit rate.

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER HITTING 7510-7540 TARGET AREA

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER HITTING 7510-7540 TARGET AREA

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.6%-1.3% yesterday as oil prices reversed and weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data renewed concerns about global growth.

Energy sector led the losers as Nymex oil fell $1.40 or 3.7% to $36.50 a barrel. Brent settled down 3% at $39.65 a barrel.

China's trade data showed that exports fell 25.4% in February in U.S. dollar terms, while imports fell 13.8%, with both declines wider than expectations. The drop in exports was the largest on-year drop since 2009. Several industrial metals including copper, nickel and aluminum saw a sharp drop following the data.

European markets lost 0.2%-1% with basic resources stocks taking the biggest hit.

AT HOME

After gaining about half a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices gave away all the gains though rest of the session to end flat, extending the consolidation to second day. Sensex settled at 24659, up 13 points while Nifty remained unchanged at 7485. BSE mid-cap index lost 0.2% while the small-cap index gained 0.2%. BSE Metal and Oil & Gas indices gained 1.7% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bankex tumbled 1.3%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.6% cut in finance index.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 775 cr, 803 cr and 349 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1342 cr.

Rupee depreciated 28 paise to end at 67.36/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto 2% with Shanghai leading the losses and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower opening for our market.

Readers would recall that we had been working with target area of 7512-7540 ever since 7250 hurdle was taken out. We had also advised booking profit in trading longs in this region considering steep run-up over past couple of sessions.

The benchmark touched a high of 7527 yesterday, hitting this target area, and retreated from there to close at 7485.

7540, as we have been mentioning, is the erstwhile double bottom made in September and December 2015 respectively which would now act as a hurdle. A decisive breach of this hurdle is required for the fresh upmove.

7380, the lower level of the gap created by the gap up opening on Thursday, is the immediate support on the way down, a breach of which can take the benchmark to around 7280, where the 34-DMA is placed.

NIFTY NEARLY HITS 7510-7540 TARGET AREA; 7380 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY NEARLY HITS 7510-7540 TARGET AREA; 7380 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.4% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq lost 0.2% yesterday, as gains in energy stocks offset declines in technology. For the Dow and S & P 500, it was the fifth straight day of gains.

Nymex oil climbed $2 to settle at $37.90 a barrel. Brent rose $2.12 to $40.84.

In a big move iron ore prices jumped 19% from $52.40 to $62.60 a tonne.

European markets ended mixed.

China's foreign currency reserves fell to $3.2 trillion at the end of February, dropping from $3.23 trillion the previous month, marking the fourth straight month of declines, although the pace of outflows slowed substantially.

AT HOME

It was a day of consolidation after three days of marathon rally, as benchmark indices ended marginally higher after a rangebound but choppy session. Sensex settled at 24646, up 39 points while Nifty added 10 points to finish at 7485. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. BSE Metal index and Bankex climbed 2.2% and 1.3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Telecom and IT indices lost 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 672 cr, 147 cr and 300 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 533 cr.

Rupee appreciated 26 paise to end at 67.08/$. For the week, rupee gained 2.3%, its biggest weekly gain since September 2013.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty soared 6.5% and 6.4% respectively, marking the largest weekly gain since the week ended 2nd December 2011.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 1%-2.5% with Shanghai leading the losses. SGX Nifty is trading around 7495, which is about 20 points higher than Friday's close of Nifty future.

Nifty on Friday touched a high of 7506 before closing at 7485, nearly achieving the 7510-7540 target area we have been working with ever since 7250 hurdle was taken out.

As advised, traders would do well to book some profit in this region.

7380 continues to be immediate support, with the stop loss of which remaining positions can be held on to.

BOOK SOME PROFIT AS 7512-7540 RESISTANCE AREA APPROACHES

BOOK SOME PROFIT AS 7512-7540 RESISTANCE AREA APPROACHES

WORLD MARKETS                             

After falling about half a percent in the first hour or so, US indices saw a sustained northward move through rest of the session to end with gains of 0.1%-0.3% ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll data.

The ISM non-manufacturing survey for February came in at 53.4, above expectations but a touch below January's 53.5 read. Final February Markit services PMI was 49.7, down from January's final 53.2 print and the lowest since October 2013. January factory orders rose 1.6%. Durable goods orders were revised slightly lower to show a rise of 4.7%, versus the prior 4.9% increase. Weekly jobless claims came in at 278,000. Revised fourth-quarter productivity declined 2.2%, while unit labor costs rose 3.3%.

Nymex oil fell 0.26% to $34.57 a barrel while Brent lost 0.4% to settle at $37.07 a barrel.

Dollar index fell about half a percent. Gold April future climbed 1.3% to $1258 an ounce.

Key European markets ended modestly lower. Healthcare sector ended 2.4% lower after credit rating agency, Moody's cut its outlook on the global pharmaceuticals industry from "positive" to "stable". Basic resources stocks however continued to advance helped by a solid rise in the price of metals.

AT HOME

Fanatic Bull Run extended to third straight day as benchmark indices soared a percent and half to close at the highest level in nearly a month. Sensex settled at 24607, up 364 points while Nifty climbed 107 points to finish at 7476. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 1.4% respectively. Except a 0.2% cut in BSE FMCG index, all the sectoral indices ended in green with Capital Goods and Metal indices leading the tally, up 4.1% each.

FIIs net bought stock, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 912 cr, 260 cr and 256 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 465 cr.

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 6-week high of 67.34/$.

India's Services PMI for February came in at a 3-month low of 51.4, down from 54.3 in January.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher opening for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had advised going long on Nifty ever since 7094, the high made on budget day, was crossed. After the initial target of 7252 was achieved, we have been working with next major target area of 7512-7540.

The benchmark yesterday touched a high of 7484 before closing at 7476, coming in very close to target area mentioned above.

Looking at the steep run-up over past three sessions, traders would do well to book some profits in long positions as 7512-7540 resistance area approaches.

7380, the gap created by yesterday's gap up opening, would now act as the immediate support, which should serve as the stop loss in remaining positions.

Key data to watch out today would be US nonfarm payroll data for February which is expected to show an addition of 190,000 jobs while unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%.

NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 7510-7540 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7235

NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 7510-7540 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7235

WORLD MARKETS                             

After falling more than half a percent in the initial trade, US indices saw a sustained upmove through rest of the session to end with gains of 0.2%-0.4%

Energy sector led the gains as Nymex oil, after hitting $35.17, its highest level since Jan 6, settled at $34.66, up 26 cents or 0.8%. The US oil inventory report showed a build in stockpiles but a continued decline in production, down 25000 to 9.077 million barrels a day. Media reports citing Venezuela's Oil Minister said more than 15 countries will attend an upcoming oil meeting to discuss an output freeze plan and possible further actions. Brent rose 12 cents to $36.93.

Fed's Beige Book said that economic activity increased in most regions. Consumer spending rose in most districts. The ADP employment report showed U.S. private employers added a more-than-expected 214,000 jobs in February. Treasury yields edged higher after the report.

European markets, except a 0.1% lower FTSE, gained 0.4%-1.8% as mining and bank shares rose.

Earlier Nikkei and Shanghai surged more than 4%, shaking off news Moody's lowered its China government bond rating outlook to "negative" from "stable".

Gold rose $11 to $1242 an ounce.

AT HOME

Bull march continued as benchmark indices, after soaring three and a half percent on Tuesday, added another 2% yesterday to close at the highest level since 8th February. Sensex settled at 24243, up 464 points while Nifty surged 147 points to finish at 7369.  BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.9% and 2.2% respectively. Except a 0.1% cut in BSE FMCG index, all the sectoral indices ended in green with Realty index and Bankex leading the tally, up 5% and 4.9% respectively.

Banking stocks soared after RBI's decision to relax capital rules for banks to help meet Basel-III norms that will provide additional capital to banking sector.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1437 cr, 1189 cr and 966 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 593 cr.

Rupee rose 31 paise to end at 67.54/$.

OUTLOOK

China's February Caixin Services PMI has come in at 51.2, down from 52.4 registered in previous month.

Asian markets are trading with gains of upto a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points higher opening for our market.

Readers would recall that in Tuesday's report we had advised going long above 7090 for target of 7252 which was the top made on 22nd February. In yesterday's report we had mentioned that once Nifty takes out 7252-7280 resistance area, where 7280 was the 34-DMA, the next meaningful target would be 7510-7540 region where 7512 is the top made on 8th February and 7540 is where Nifty had made double bottom in September and December 2015.

The benchmark soared 147 yesterday to end at 7369 and is set to open with a gap up even today and is on course to achieve 7512-7540 target.

7235, the lower end of the gap created by yesterday's gap up opening, would now serve as the immediate support on the way down, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

WORLD EQUITIES START MARCH WITH A BANG; NIFTY SET TO ACHIEVE 7250 TARGET AND MORE

WORLD EQUITIES START MARCH WITH A BANG; NIFTY SET TO ACHIEVE 7250 TARGET AND MORE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices, supported by a rise in oil prices and a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing report, soared 2.1%-2.9% yesterday, marking the best start to a month in more than three years.

Nymex oil reversed an intraday dip to end higher by 65 cents or 2% at $34.40 a barrel.

February ISM manufacturing came in at 49.5, about 1 point above expectations and topping January's 48.2 print. Construction spending rose 1.5% in January to its highest level since 2007. The Markit manufacturing PMI for February came in at 51.3, up from the flash 51.0 print but down from January's final 52.4 read.

European markets gained 1%-2.3%. ECB President Mario Draghi said that euro area inflation trends are weaker than expected and the ECB's policy review in March has to "be seen against the background of increased downside risks to the earlier outlook."

AT HOME

It was a spectacular beginning to March month as benchmark indices soared nearly three and half percent with Nifty registering the biggest percentage gain since 19th September 2013. Sensex surged 777 points to settle at 23779 while Nifty finished at 7222, up 235 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 3% and 3.2% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with FMCG and Consumer Durable indices leading the tally, up 4.9% and 4.4% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1761 cr, 706 cr and 495 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 317 cr.

Rupee appreciated 57 paise to end at 67.86/$.

Maruti reported 0.9% y-o-y dip in February sales at 1.17 lac units. Eicher reported 63% surge in Royal Enfield sales at 49156 units. Ashok Leyland sold 25% higher vehicles at 13403 units. M & M too reported healthy growth of 16% at 44002 units.  Hero Motocorp reported 13.6% growth.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is up more than 3%, other Asian markets are up and SGX Nifty is suggesting nearly 100 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 7090, the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 7252-6826 fall, which also coincides with the top made on budget day, is the immediate hurdle, upon sustained trading above which 7252 would be the next target to eye.

Nifty crossed this hurdle in first half an hour itself and surged all the way to 7235 before closing at 7222.

A big gap up opening would see the benchmark achieving 7250 target and going much beyond it.

7250 is the immediate previous top on the daily chart made on 22nd February and 34-DMA is placed around 7280 which makes 7250-7280 immediate resistance area. If Nifty is able to sustain above 7280 on closing basis, it would have crossed 34-DMA resistance after nearly 2 months. Upon happening that, next resistance zone or target area would be 7510-7540 where 7512 is the top made on 8th February and 7540 is where Nifty had made double bottom in September and December 2015.

7130 is the immediate support on 15 minute chart with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.