NIFTY SURGES TOWARDS 7800 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7600

NIFTY SURGES TOWARDS 7800 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7600

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.1% each while Nasdaq rose 0.3% yesterday

Existing home sales declined 7.1% in February to an annual rate of 5.08 million units, the lowest level since November. Chicago Fed national activity index posted a decline to minus 0.29 in February from 0.41 in January.

Nymex crude April future rose 47 cents or 1.2% to $39.91 a barrel after data showed crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. futures fell for the first time since January. Brent rose 34 cents or 0.8% to $41.54 .

European markets, except a half a percent higher Italy, lost upto 0.8%.

Earlier, Shanghai composite surged more than 2% after state-backed China Securities Finance, which lends brokerages money to fund margin financing, late Friday said it would resume some short-term lending businesses and cut borrowing costs for brokerages.

Gold fell $10 to $1244 an ounce.

AT HOME

After a positive start, benchmark indices builded on the initial gains through the session to finish with hefty gains of a percent and a third and closing at the highest level since 6th January. Sensex soared 333 points to settle at 25285 while Nifty finished at 7704, up 100 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.4% each. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Industrial and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 2.2% and 2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1396 cr and 251 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 78 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 619 cr.

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 66.53/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei, after yesterday’s holiday, has opened up about 2%, other Asian markets are trading mixed and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had clearly mentioned that having taken out the 7600 hurdle decisively, Nifty is now headed to 7800, where the 34-week moving average is placed. The benchmark soared 100 points to finish at 7704, moving towards 7800 target and vindicating our view.

7800 continues to be major upside target to eye. 7600, the erstwhile resistance, will now act as the immediate support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

NIFTY TAKES OUT 7600 HURDLE; STAY LONG WITH STOP LOSS OF 7479 FOR TARGET OF 7800

NIFTY TAKES OUT 7600 HURDLE; STAY LONG WITH STOP LOSS OF 7479 FOR TARGET OF 7800

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow climbed 0.7% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.4% each on Friday

Nymex Oil, after touching a three-and-a-half-month high of $41 a barrel, eased to settle down 76 cents or 1.9% at $39.44 a barrel.

The preliminary March read on consumer sentiment came in at 90.0, down from 91.7 in February.

European markets, except a 0.2% lower FTSE, gained upto 0.8%.

Gold fell $11 to $1254 an ounce.

For the week, US indices gained 1%-2.3%. In Europe, FTSE and DAX gained 0.8% and 1.2% respectively while CAC lost 0.7%. US dollar index declined more than a percent for the week, its third straight weekly decline. Gold ended lower by 0.4%, its second-straight weekly decline.

AT HOME

It was a good end to the week as benchmark indices soared more than a percent on Friday to close at the highest level since 6th January, 2016. Sensex added 275 points to settle at 24953 while Nifty finished at 7604, up 92 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% each. Except a 0.8% cut in Healthcare index, all the BSE sectoral indices closed in green with IT and Teck indices leading the tally, up 2.3% and 2.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1713 cr and 491 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 171 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 403 cr.

Rupee appreciated 25 paise to end at 66.50/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1% and 1.2% respectively, extending the winning streak to third straight week.

OUTLOOK

Today, Nikkei is shut for a public holiday, Shanghai is up nearly a percent and half, other Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points lower opening for our market.

Nifty on Friday closed at 7604, decisively taking out 7600 hurdle we have been talking about for quite some time.

Next meaningful target, as we have been mentioning, would come around 7800, where 34-week moving average is placed.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 7479, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

DOLLAR INDEX TUMBLES TO FIVE MONTH LOW WHILE OIL CLIMBS TO 2016 HIGH; NIFTY FAILS TO TAKE OUT 7600 HURDLE

DOLLAR INDEX TUMBLES TO FIVE MONTH LOW WHILE OIL CLIMBS TO 2016 HIGH; NIFTY FAILS TO TAKE OUT 7600 HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.2%-0.9% yesterday on the back of rising oil and a positive view of the Fed's Wednesday announcement. Materials, Industrials and Energy were the best performing sectors. Dow turned positive for the year, recouping 11% loss.

Nymex oil soared 4.5% to $40.20 a barrel for its highest settle of the year so far as the dollar weakened and talk continued about an April 17 meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Brent rose $1.21 to $41.54.

US weekly jobless claims came in at 265,000. The March Philly Fed index was 12.4 versus minus 2.8 for February. Fourth-quarter current account data showed a deficit of $125.3 billion. Leading indicators for February rose 0.1%.

In Europe, FTSE and Spain gained 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while CAC, DAX and Italy fell 0.4%, 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. The Bank of England voted 9-0 to keep the U.K. main interest rate at 0.5% — marking the seventh straight year of record-low interest rates. The central bank of Norway cut its key interest rate to an all-time low of 0.5% from 0.75% and raised the prospect of a move into negative territory.

Dollar index fell more than a percent and touched its lowest level since October 2015. Against the Yen, dollar hit the lowest level since October 2014. Gold climbed $35 to $1265 an ounce.

AT HOME

After Wednesday's dramatic recovery, yesterday was a day of dramatic fall as benchmark indices, after gaining more than a percent in the morning trade, gave away all the gains in the late noon sell-off to end near zero line. Sensex settled at 24677, down 5 points while Nifty managed to gain 14 points to finish at 7513. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and Basic Material indices gained 2.3% and 1.3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare and Realty indices fell 1.2% and 0.9% respectively, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 744 cr, 592 cr and 444 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 168 cr.

Rupee appreciated 48 paise to end at 66.75/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is down more than a percent and half on the back of strengthening Yen. Other Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had clearly mentioned that after a gap up opening Nifty would be again close to important 7600 hurdle, a crossover of which is required for the fresh upmove. We had also advised waiting for the crossover of the top made in first hour for taking long positions.

The benchmark made a top of 7585 in the first hour of trade but could not cross it and plunged sharply in the late noon trade to end at 7513.

We reiterate the view that 7600 continues to be an important hurdle, a crossover of which is required for fresh upmove. On the way down, 7405, the bottom made on Wednesday, is the immediate support.

DOVISH FED SPARKS RISK-ON TRADE; NIFTY SET TO RE-CHALLENGE 7600 HURDLE

DOVISH FED SPARKS RISK-ON TRADE; NIFTY SET TO RE-CHALLENGE 7600 HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.4%-0.8% on the back of rebound in oil prices and dovish Fed statement.

The Fed left rates unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.5% at its March meeting and cut its projection for the number of 2016 rate hikes from four to two, and projected just two hikes in 2017. This was far more dovish than markets had expected, resulting in sharp rallies in commodities, emerging markets and commodity-related currencies.

The central bank also cut its outlook for 2016 GDP growth to 2.2% from 2.4% previously.

Nymex oil climbed 5.8% to $38.46 a barrel and Brent rose 4% to $40.33 after Qatari oil ministry said that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will to hold a meeting in Doha on April 17 and data from Energy Information Administration showed a build-up of 1.3 mn barrels in the US, instead of the expected 3.4 mn.

In economic news, CPI declined 0.2% but core CPI rose 0.3% in February for a 2.3% rise over the 12 months through February. Housing starts rose 5.2% in February. Industrial production declined 0.5% in February, with capacity utilization at 76.7%.

Weekly mortgage application volume fell 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, but still nearly 21% higher y-o-y.

Dollar index fell more than a percent to 95.5, its lowest since Feb. 12. Gold jumped more than 2% to $1261 an ounce.

In Europe, FTSE and DAX gained about half a percent while France, Italy and Spain ended with modest cuts.

AT HOME

It was a dramatic day of trade as benchmark indices, after falling about three fourth of a percent in the morning trade, climbed nearly a percent and quarter from the bottom of the day to end higher by half a percent. Sensex settled at 24682, up 131 points while Nifty added 38 points to finish at 7499. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however lost 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. BSE Bankex and IT indices gained 0.9% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durable index plunged 3.6%, becoming top loser, followed by 1.1% cut in Telecom index.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 626 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 115 cr and 955 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 680 cr.

Rupee appreciated 16 paise to end at 67.22/$.

The Lok Sabha yesterday passed the contentious Aadhaar (Targeted Delivery of Financial and other subsidies, benefits and services) Bill, 2016, even as it was sent back by the Rajya Sabha, which sought five amendments to the bill. The government had tabled the Aadhaar Bill as a money bill, on which the Rajya Sabha does not have the power to vote and can only suggest changes. With Lok Sabha having ignored the proposed amendments, the Aadhaar Bill is now deemed to have been passed by Parliament.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.5%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 90 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 7460 is the immediate support, a sustained trading below which will generate a sell on the hourly chart and can take the benchmark to around 7300, where 34-DMA is placed.

Nifty broke this support and fell to 7405 intraday but rebounded sharply in the noon trade to end at 7499.

A big gap up opening today would take the benchmark closer to 7600 hurdle we have been talking for couple of days.

A successful crossover of 7600 would open up the space for the further upside till about 7800, where 34-week moving average is placed.

Traders can initiate fresh longs upon crossover of the high made in first hour of trade with the stop loss of 7490, which is the immediate support on the hourly chart.

NIFTY TUMBLES AFTER BEING RESISTED NEAR 7600, VINDICATES OUR VIEW

NIFTY TUMBLES AFTER BEING RESISTED NEAR 7600, VINDICATES OUR VIEW

WORLD MARKETS                             

While Dow managed to end 0.1% higher, S & P 500 and Nasdaq, led lower by healthcare stocks, closed 0.2% and 0.4% lower yesterday ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting.

Nymex oil fell 2.3% to $36.34 a barrel, extending the decline to second straight day to settle at the lowest level since March 4. Brent ended down 79 cents at $38.74.

US retail sales fell a less-than-expected 0.1% in February, but January's figure was revised down to show a 0.4% decline versus the previously reported 0.2% increase. Producer prices fell 0.2% in February, but were unchanged over the last 12 months. That marked the first time since January 2015 that the year-on-year PPI did not decline. NAHB Housing Market Index held steady at 58 in March.

European markets fell 0.6%-1.7%. Basic resources was the worst performing sector as weak earnings and a fall in metal prices weighed on the sector.

Gold lost $14 to close at $1231 an ounce.

Earlier the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged, as expected, but gave a gloomier view on the economy and exports in particular than it did in January.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, benchmark indices saw a sustained downward move through the session to end a percent lower. Sensex lost 253 points to settle at 24551 while Nifty finished at 7461, down 78 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. BSE Healthcare index plunged 3%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.5% cut in FMCG index. Bankex and Oil & Gas indices gained 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 54 cr and 684 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 554 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 302 cr.

Rupee depreciated 27 paise to end at 67.38/$.

India's trade deficit fell from USD 7.64 bn in January to USD 6.54 bn in February. Exports fell 5.66% to USD 20.74 while imports fell 5.03% to USD 28.71 bn.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, barring a half a percent lower Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading flat to modestly higher and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher opening for our market.

For past couple of days we have been cautioning that 7540-7600 is the important resistance area, a crossover of which is required for further upmove. We had also advised booking profits in trading longs as this resistance area approaches.

The benchmark, after touching a high of 7584 on Monday, slipped sharply in yesterday's trade to end at 7460, vindicating our view.

In yesterday's report we had also mentioned that 7460 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, a a sustained trading below which will generate a sell on the hourly chart and can take the benchmark to around 7300, where 34-DMA is placed.

That continues to be the view. 7460-7425 is the region where multiple bottoms on the hourly chart are placed. Once this support area is taken out, traders can initiate short positions with the stop loss of 7500, which is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

Crossover of 7600 should be awaited for taking fresh longs.

Key event to watch out today would be the Federal Open Market Committee decision in the US. The US central bank is widely expected to keep the interest rate unchanged but market will closely watch out for the wordings of the committee's statement for cues on the direction ahead. 

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 7540-7600 HURDLE AREA; 7460 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 7540-7600 HURDLE AREA; 7460 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and Nasdaq ended marginally higher while S & P 500 lost 0.1% yesterday, digesting decline in oil prices and awaiting Fed meeting scheduled in the middle of the week.

Nymex oil fell $1.32 or 3.4% to $37.18 a barrel and Brent fell 2% to $39.53 as hopes of a coordinated production freeze faded. The Iranian News Agency Shana quoted Russian Energy Minister saying Russia accepts Iranian rights to increase oil output post sanctions. Over the weekend, Iran Oil Minister said the country would join discussions among other producers about a possible oil production freeze after its own output reached four million barrels per day.

OPEC also issued its latest report, saying it expected lower demand for its oil in 2016, than previously forecast.

European markets, except a marginally lower Italy, gained 0.6%-1.6% with DAX leading the tally. Industrial output in the euro zone rose dramatically in January, by 2.1% month-on-month, above forecasts of 1.7%.

Gold fell $14 to $1245 an ounce.

AT HOME

After rising nearly a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices gave away more than half of the gains through the session to end higher by about four tenth of a percent, nevertheless closing at the highest level since 1st February. Sensex settled at 24804, up 86 points while Nifty added 29 points to finish at 7539. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Bankex and Industrial indices gained 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Metal index plunged 2%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.5% cut in Energy index.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1036 cr and 861 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 253 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 805 cr.

Rupee depreciated 7 paise to end at 67.11/$.

Retail inflation, as measured by Consumer Price Index fell to 5.18% y-o-y in February, as against forecast of a 5.53% and 5.61% in January.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had explained that 7540-7600 is an important resistance area a crossover of which is required for the fresh upmove.

The benchmark, after touching a high of 7584 in the initial trade, slipped to close at 7539.

7540-7600 continues to be the hurdle area a crossover of which would open up the space for the further upside till about 34-week moving average, which is currently placed around 7815.

Immediate support is placed around 7460, a sustained trading below which will generate a sell on the hourly chart and can take the benchmark to around 7300, where 34-DMA is placed.

NIFTY SET TO CHALLENGE 7550-7600 RESISTANCE AREA

NIFTY SET TO CHALLENGE 7550-7600 RESISTANCE AREA

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices soared 1.3%-1.8% on Friday, reacting to rise in oil prices and digesting Thursday's European Central Bank stimulus measures. The S&P 500 gained closed above psychologically key 2,000 level and crossed its 200-day moving average for the first time since Dec. 30. Dow also closed above its 200 DMA for the first time since Dec 30.

Nymex oil rose 66 cents or 1.7% to $38.50 a barrel following the International Energy Agency's report that said oil might have bottomed. Baker Hughes data showed U.S. rigs declined by six. 

Also boosting the sentiment was yuan's strongest midpoint fix against the dollar for the year so far at 6.4905 by th PBOC.

In U.S. economic news, February import prices declined 0.3%, while export prices fell 0.4%.

European markets climbed 1.7%-4.8%.

Gold fell $13 to $1259 an ounce.

For the week, US indices gained 1.2%-1.8%.

AT HOME

It turned out to be yet another day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended higher by a third of a percent after a rangebound but choppy trade. Sensex added 95 points to settle at 24718 while Nifty finished at 7510, up 24 points. BSE mid-cap index gained 0.1% while the small-cap index lost 0.2%. BSE FMCG index climbed 1.2%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.5% gain in Healthcare index. Metal and Utilities indices lost the most, down 0.7% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 378 cr and 932 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 378 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 433 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 67.04/$.

India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of January came in at -1.5%. December IIP has been revised to -1.2% against -1.3% reported earlier. This is the third consecutive month of decline led by manufacturing which slipped to -2.8% vs -2.4% month-on-month (MoM). Further, the April-January IIP data has slipped to 2.7% against 3.1% (YoY).

The Lok Sabha on Friday passed the Aadhaar bill to provide a unique identity to residents and give legal teeth to the government in ensuring that its subsidies and services directly reach the beneficiaries in entirety.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of 1%-2% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 60 points higher opening for our market.

Today's gap up opening would take the benchmark again in the 7550-7600 region which we have been talking about for quite some time.

7600 is the immediate previous top on the weekly chart a sustained trading above which would open up the space for next big upmove as next meaningful resistance will come around 7840 where 34-week moving average is placed.

7424 continues to be immediate support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.