NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 11220 TARGET; 11450 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 11220 TARGET; 11450 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices, after falling nearly a percent and half in the initial trade, recovered through the session to end with cuts of 0.3%-0.5% ahead of the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

Intraday recovery happened after Trump said it's possible to get a trade deal with China this week.

Chipmakers, sensitive to higher tariffs, took a hit as Nvidia and Micron dropped about 2.1% and 1.2% respectively. Intel fell nearly 5.3% after sinking nearly 5% in the previous session as the chipmaker said it sees both revenue and earnings per share growing in the "single digit" percentage range over the next three years.

Adding to concerns, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below that of the 3-month bill briefly, inverting part of the so-called yield curve.

US crude fell 42 cents to $61.70 per barrel while Brent rose 2 cents to $70.39.

European markets fell 0.9%-1.9%.

AT HOME

After falling nearly a percent, benchmark indices recouped about half of the losses in late noon trade to end lower in the vicinity of half a percent, extending the losing streak to seventh consecutive day. Sensex lost 230 points to settle at 37558 while Nifty finished at 11301, down 57 points. Both the indices closed at the lowest level since 12th March, marking a near two month low. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Energy index nosedived 2.6%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.5% lower Metal index. IT and Teck indices were the top gainers, up 0.4% each.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 655 cr, 2068 cr and 952 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 678 cr.

Rupee depreciated 23 paise to end at 69.94/$.

HCL Tech reported better-than-expected constant currency revenue growth of 3.3% q-o-q. Rupee revenue rose 1.9% to Rs 12990 cr, EBIT fell 1.5% to Rs 3039 cr, margin fell 70 bps to 18.9% and profit fell 1.7% to Rs 2568 cr. The company expects FY20 constant currency revenue growth at 14-16%.

Asian Paints posted disappointing set of numbers for Q4FY19. Revenue rose 11.7% y-o-y to Rs 5018 cr, EBITDA fell 2% to Rs 823 cr, margin dipped 230 bps to 16.4% and net profit fell 1.7% to Rs 487 cr.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.4%-1.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had turned negative on Nifty after 11550 support was taken out and had given target of 11370, followed by 11220.

Nifty yesterday touched a low of 11255 before closing at 11301, coming in very close to 11220 target mentioned above.

11220, the 50% retracement level of the entire 10585-11856 upmove, continues to be downside support to eye. If that gets breached 11070, the 61.8% retracement level of this upmove, would be the next support to watch.

On the way up, 11450, where a trendline adjoining recent tops on the hourly chart is placed, would be the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 10550 would be the next hurdle to eye.

L & T, SBI and Eicher Motors will report their quarterly earnings today.

NIFTY ACHIEVES 11370 TARGET; 11550 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY ACHIEVES 11370 TARGET; 11550 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.2% and 0.3% respectively amid persisting worries over US-China trade standoff.

There was a mid-day spurt after White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders affirmed President Donald Trump's tweet earlier that China is coming to Washington this week to strike a deal. However, these gains were washed-off by last half an our dip.

Meanwhile, China yesterday said it will take "necessary" countermeasures if U.S. raises tariffs Friday. Also, Media reports suggested that Chinese trade officials backtracked on key aspects of a trade deal draft, undercutting hopes that the Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He this week could salvage the deal.

Intel fell 2.5% after the chipmaker said it expects low single-digit revenue growth over the next three years.

US oil rose 72 cents or 1.2% to $62.12 while Brent gained 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $70.37 after data from EIA showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 4 million barrels in the week to May 3, as against expected increase of 1.2 million barrels.

Main European markets gained 0.2%-0.4%.

Meanwhile, speaking at a rally in Florida late Wednesday, Trump said that China "broke the deal" in the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.

AT HOME

Bear rampage continued as benchmark indices nosedived a percent and fifth, extending the losing streak to sixth consecutive day. Sensex lost 457 points to settle at 37789 while Nifty finished at 11359, down 138 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1% and 1.2% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Energy and Realty indices losing the most, down 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 702 cr, 1129 cr and 956 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 233 cr.

Rupee depreciated 28 paise to end at 69.71/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-0.9% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower start for our market.

Readers would recall that after 10550 support was taken out, we had given downside target of 11370. Nifty yesterday plunged all the way to 11347 before closing at 11359, achieving 11370 target and vindicating our view.

11311, the low made on 25th March, is the next downside support to eye below which, 11220, the 50% retracement level of the entire 10585-11856 upmove, would be the next major support.

11550, the erstwhile support, would now act as immediate hurdle, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

HCL Tech and Asian Paints will report their quarterly earnings today.

11370 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 11657 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

11370 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 11657 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices nosedived 1.6%-2% on growing trade war threat between US and China.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that the U.S. will increase levies on Chinese imports on Friday.

US oil fell 85 cents or 1.4% to $61.40 while Brent slipped $1.31, or 1.8% to $69.93 a barrel.

FTSE, DAX and CAC tumbled 1.6% each. German industrial figures showed orders rose less than expected in March after two months of sharp decline.  The European Commission released its latest economic forecast. The Commission still expects growth in the whole EU to hit 1.4% this year and 1.6% next year. However, it cut growth forecasts for Germany for the second time this year, as trade tensions and a Chinese slowdown weigh.

AT HOME

After rising about half a percent, benchmark indices nosedived in late noon trade to end with cuts of about nine tenth of a percent, extending the losing streak to fifth consecutive day. Sensex settled at 38276, down 323 points while Nifty lost 100 points to finish at 11497. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1% and 0.8% respectively. BSE Telecom and Energy indices plunged 2.4% and 2.2% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while IT and Capital Goods indices gained 0.2% each.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 645 cr and 464 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 23 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 819 cr.

Rupee depreciated 2 paise to end at 69.42/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.8%-1.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 60 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that "11550 continues to be crucial downside support, upon breach of which, 11370, the 38.2% retracement level of the entire 10585-11856 upmove, would be the next support to eye".

Nifty broke 11550 support and plunged all the way to 11484 before closing at 11497 and is set to open below 11450 today.

11370, as mentioned above continues to be next downside target as well as support to eye.

11657, the top made yesterday, would now act as immediate hurdle, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

NIFTY REBOUND FROM THE VICINITY OF 11550 SUPPORT; 11700 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY REBOUND FROM THE VICINITY OF 11550 SUPPORT; 11700 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

After opening with deep cuts of nearly a percent and half, US indices rebounded through the session to end with cuts of 0.2%-0.5% on hopes that China and the U.S. will still strike a trade deal despite US President Trump’s threat to hike tariffs on Chinese imports over the weekend.

Media reports suggested that a Chinese delegation will still travel to the U.S. to continue negotiations this week, albeit with a smaller group than originally planned.

Meanwhile, Trump claimed in another tweet yesterday that the U.S. is losing between $600 and $800 billion a year on trade, noting: “We’re not going to be doing that anymore.”

US crude rose 31 cents to $62.25 a barrel while Brent rose 39 cents to $71.24 on the back of rising tensions between the United States and Iran.

European markets ended with cuts of 0.8%-1.6%. Eurozone IHS Markit PMI came in at 51.6 in April from a reading in March of 51.6.

Earlier, Shanghai Composite ended with deep cuts of 5.6% and Hang Seng fell 2.9%.

AT HOME

World equities plunged on the back of dramatic escalation of trade tension between US and China. While Shanghai and Hang Seng nosedived 5.6% and 2.9% respectively, our own benchmark indices fell nearly a percent, extending the losing streak to fourth straight day. Sensex settled at 38600, down 362 points while Nifty lost 114 points to finish at 11598. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell eight tenth of a percent. Except 0.5% and 0.2% higher Telecom and Oil & Gas indices, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Consumer Durable and Metal indices leading the losses, down 2.8% and 2.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 949 cr, 913 cr and 564 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 90 cr.

Rupee depreciated 19 paise to end at 69.40/$.

India's April Nikkei Services PMI weakened to 51 from 52 in March. Composite PMI eased to 51.7 from 52.7.

ICICI Bank reported healthy set of numbers. Loan growth, at 14.1% y-o-y, was a 3-year high and net interest margin, at 17-quarter high, beat estimate. Gross NPA ratio improved to 7.38% from 7.75% q-o-q and Net NPA ratio improved to 2.29% from 2.58%. GNPA ratio was the lowest in 11 quarters. Net profit fell 5% y-o-y to Rs 969 cr while NII jumped 26.5% to Rs 7620 cr. Gross slippages rose to Rs 3547 cr from Rs 2091 q-o-q.

Bharti Airtel's numbers were operationally good, led by India mobile segment. India mobile business revenue grew at 4.3% q-o-q, the highest in last 3 years. Consolidated revenue rose 1.8% while margin stood at 32%.  

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei, which has opened after holidays, is down nearly a percent while Shanghai and Hang Seng are up about half a percent. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that "11624 continues to be immediate support. If that gets breached, 34-DMA, placed around 11600, followed by 11550 would be next supports to eye."

Nifty broke 11624 support and fell all the way to 11571 before closing at 11598, taking support in the 11600-11550 support zone as indicated above.

11550 continues to be crucial downside support, upon breach of which, 11370, the 38.2% retracement level of the entire 10585-11856 upmove, would be the next support to eye.

On the way up, 11700, the upper level of the gap created by yesterday's gap down opening, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 11800 would be next resistance to eye.

VEDL, Escorts and CEAT will report their quarterly earnings today.

ASIAN MARKETS, US FUTURES TUMBLE AS US-CHINA TRADE TENSION ESCALATE

ASIAN MARKETS, US FUTURES TUMBLE AS US-CHINA TRADE TENSION ESCALATE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices climbed 0.8%-1.6% on Friday, with Nasdaq hitting a record high, on the back of robust jobs data.

The U.S. economy added a robust 263,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, the lowest since December 1969. These figure were much better than the expected figures of 1,90,000 and 3.8% respectively.

WTI crude rose 13 cents to $61.94 a barrel while Brent rose 10 cents to $70.85.

European markets gained 0.2%-0.6%. Euro zone inflation advanced to 1.7% in April, up from 1.4% a month ago and beating the estimated figure of 1.6%.

For the week, Dow fell 0.2%, Nasdaq was flat while S & P 500 rose 0.2%. In Europe, FTSE and CAC were down 0.6% and 0.4% respectively while DAX was up 0.8%. In Asia, Nikkei was shut for the whole week, Indian and Chinese market fell about a third of a percent while Hang Seng surged 1.6%.

AT HOME

After trading in a narrow range for better part of the day, benchmark indices slipped in late noon trade to end with modest cuts, extending the losing streak to third straight day. Sensex settled at 38963, down 18 points while Nifty lost 12 points to finish at 11712.  BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. BSE IT and Teck indices tumbled 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Telecom indices were the top gainers, up 1.6% and 1.2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 401 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 153 cr and 548 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 57 cr.

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 69.21/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

HUL Q4 results were a slight miss. Revenue rose 9.3% y-o-y while volume growth stood at 7%

OUTLOOK

In a dramatic development, Trump said in a tweet Sunday that the current 10% levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods will rise to 25% on Friday. He also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods “shortly.” It is feared that China is considering cancelling its trade talks with the U.S. this week in light of Trump’s latest threats.

Owing to this development, China and Hang Seng have opened with cuts of nearly 3% today and US futures are down nearly 2%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 60 points lower start for our market.

For past couple of days, we have been mentioning that 11796-11624, top-bottom made on 25th April, is the immediate range to watch, a crossover of which, on either side, is required for a fresh move.

Nifty, on Friday, closed at 11712 and is set to open near 11650 today.

11624 continues to be immediate support. If that gets breached, 34-DMA, placed around 11600, followed by 11550 would be next supports to eye.

11796 continues to be immediate hurdle.

51 constituencies across 7 seven states will go for polling today in the fifth phase.

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11796 HURDLE; 11624 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11796 HURDLE; 11624 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow fell half a percent while S & P 500 and Nasdaq eased 0.2% each, extending Wednesday's fall, which happened after the Fed Chair Powell hinted that lower rates may not be on the cards.

US crude plunged $1.81 or 2.8% to $61.81 a barrel, it's lowest level in a month, as rising U.S. crude stockpiles helped offset concerns about a supply crunch. Brent fell $1.43, or 2%, to $70.75.

European markets, except a flat DAX, fell 0.5%-1.6% with Spain leading the losses. The Bank of England held interest rates steady following the extension of the deadline for the U.K.’s withdrawal from the EU. On the data front, factory activity in the euro zone contracted for a third month in April, according to IHS Markit.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended with modest cuts after a choppy session. Sensex settled at 38981, down 50 points while Nifty lost 23 points to finish at 11724. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. BSE IT and Teck indices tumbled 1.8% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Telecom index soared 2%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.5% higher Energy index.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 598 cr and 270 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 516 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 792 cr.

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 69.36/$.

India's April Nikkei manufacturing PMI slowed to 51.8 from 52.6 in March.

OUTLOOK

Nikkei and Shanghai continue to remain shut. Hang Seng is down four tenth of a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower start for our market.

For past couple of days we have been mentioning that 11796-11624, top-bottom made on last Thursday, is the immediate range to watch, a crossover of which, on either side, is required for a fresh move.

Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a high of 11789, slipped to end at 11724 and is set to open near 11700 today.

11796 continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, , 11856, the top made on 18th April, would be the next target to eye.

11624 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to.

11856 ABOVE 11796; 11624 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

11856 ABOVE 11796; 11624 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.6%-0.7% after the Fed Chair Powell hinted that lower rates may not be in the cards.

While Fed voted unanimously to maintain the benchmark rate in a range of 2.25% and 2.5% as expected, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a news conference that recent low inflationary pressures may only be “transitory. ” That dashed speculation the central bank was entertaining the idea of a rate cut because of tame inflation.

Treasury yields rebounded on this with the 2-year yield rising from a session low of around 2.2% to trade back at 2.27%.

Apple shares rose 5% after its earnings, revenue for the previous quarter beat expectations and guidance for the next quarter came in better than expected.

Data from ADP and Moody's Analytics showed private payrolls increased by 275,000 in April, easily beating estimate of 177,000.

US crude fell 31 cents to $63.60 a barrel after U.S. crude inventories rose by 9.9 million barrels in the last week to 470.6 million, the highest since Sept. 2017. Brent fell 2 cents to $72.04.

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.4% while other major European markets were closed for the May Day public holiday.

AT HOME

After plunging more than eight tenth of a percent in the morning trade, benchmark indices recouped most of the losses in last hour surge to end just marginally lower. Sensex settled at 39031, down 35 points while Nifty lost 6 points to finish at 11748. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices nosedived 1.2% each. BSE Telecom and Realty indices tumbled 2.2% each, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Metal and IT indices gained 1.4% each, becoming top gainers.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 115 cr and 165 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 1479 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 730 cr.

Rupee appreciated 45 paise to end at 69.56/$.

GST collections hit an all-time-high of Rs 1,13,865 in April.

Eicher Motor reported 17% fall in motorcycle sales at 62879 units. Maruti sales fell 17% to 1.43 lakh units, marking the lowest figure since December 2018.

OUTLOOK

Markets in China and Japan are closed today for holidays. Hang Seng is trading lower by 0.2% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start, when compared to Tuesday's close of Nifty future.

In Tuesday's report, we had said that 11796-11624 range made on last Thursday are the immediate resistance-support levels to eye and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 11624.

Nifty, on Tuesday, after touching a low of 11656 in the morning trade, surged to end at 11748.

11796 continues to be immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 11856, the top made on 18th April, would be the next target to eye.

11624 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to.