11844-11625 IS THE BROAD RANGE

11844-11625 IS THE BROAD RANGE

WORLD MARKETS

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, monitoring geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and awaiting a key meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at this week’s G-20 summit.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement yesterday that the country’s Vice Premier Liu He had a phone call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Monday. They discussed trade and agreed to maintain communications, according to the statement.

Meanwhile, the U.S. on Monday imposed sanctions on Iran over the latter’s shooting down of an unmanned American drone last week.

US oil rose 0.8% to $57.90 a barrel while Brent fell 0.5% to 64.86.

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.1% while DAX and CAC fell 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Ifo Institute for Economic Research showed German business morale falling to its lowest level since November 2014.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices fell a fifth of a percent, extending the losing streak to second straight day. Sensex lost 71 points to settle at 39122 while Nifty finished at 11699, down 24 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and Metal indices tumbled 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Power and Capital Goods indices were the top gainers, up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 207 cr and 317 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 121 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 984 cr.

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 69.35/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, main Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.1%-0.2% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 11844, the top made Thursday, continues to be immediate hurdle while 11700, the 67% retracement level of the recent 11625-11844 upmove, is the immediate support below which 11625, the bottom made last week, would be the next important support.

Nifty breached 11700 level and touched a low of 11670 and recovered from there to close at 11700.

11625, the bottom made last week, is the next support to eye.

On the way up, 11844 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

11844 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11700 NEAREST SUPPORT

11844 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11700 NEAREST SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.1%-0.2% on Friday.

Indices touched session highs on reports that Vice President Mike Pence would postpone a China policy address amid “positive signs” on trade. But stocks pared most of those gains after the Commerce Department barred five additional Chinese companies from buying U.S. components without approval.

US oil rose 0.6% to $57.43 a barrel while Brent gained 69 cents or 1.1% to $65.14  on fears the United States could attack Iran and disrupt flows from the Middle East. Iranian officials said Tehran had received a message from Trump through Oman overnight warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent. The officials said they had responded by saying that any attack would have regional and international consequences

Trump also said Saturday that the U.S. would impose “major additional sanctions ” against Iran on Monday.

Main European markets too fell 0.1%-0.2%. Britain posted a larger-than-expected budget deficit as the deficit for May rose by 23% from the previous year.

For the week, Dow and S&P 500 both rose more than 2%, while the Nasdaq climbed 3%. WTI surged more than 9%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since December 2016 while Brent climbed 5%.

AT HOME

After Thursday's bull rampage, Friday was a day of bear domination as  benchmark indices tumbled nearly a percent, giving away three-fourth of yesterday's gains. Sensex slipped 407 points to settle at 39194 while Nifty finished at 11724, down 107 points. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.4% while small-cap index gained 0.1%. Except 0.1% higher Basic Material and Power indices, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Auto index leading the losses, down 1.3%, followed by 1.1% lower Energy and Telecom indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 731 cr and 160 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 39 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 446 cr.

Rupee depreciated 11 paise to end at 69.55/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, extending the  losing streak to third consecutive week.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading flat to modest lower and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that a crossover of 11844, the top made Thursday, would confirm a "Buy" on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further upmove.

Nifty, after touching a high of 11828 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 11724 and is set to open flat today.

11844, the top made Thursday, continues to be immediate hurdle to eye, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

11700, the 67% retracement level of the recent 11625-11844 upmove, is the immediate support to eye below which 11625, the bottom made last week, would be the next important support.

11945 ABOVE 11844; 11745 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

11945 ABOVE 11844; 11745 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.8%-1% with the S & P 500 hitting a record close, led by strong gains in tech and energy shares.

Energy stocks jumped tracking higher oil. US oil surged $2.89 or 5.4% to $56.65 and Brent climbed $2.79 or 4.5% to $64.61 a barrel after Iran shot down a U.S. military drone and Trump responded by saying that Iran made a very big mistake.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below 2% for the first time since November 2016. It touched a low of 1.974% before ending the day around 2.02%.

European markets climbed 1.2%-2.5% reacting to interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The Bank of England held interest rates steady at 0.75% while cutting its growth forecast for Britain’s economy to zero in the second quarter of 2019, citing global trade tensions and the growing risk of a damaging no-deal Brexit.

AT HOME

Bulls made a grand comeback as benchmark indices soared a percent and fourth in today's trade, marking the biggest gain since 3rd June. Sensex settled at 39601, up 488 points while Nifty added 140 points to finish at 11831. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.6% and 1% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Auto and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 2.5% and 2.4% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 438 cr and 237 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 1076 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1241 cr.

Rupee appreciated 24 paise to end at 69.44/$.

UPL shares plunged after HSBC Research raised concerns on declining soyabean demand, pricing pressure from the US-China trade tensions and the African swine fever (ASF).

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is down 0.2% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 0.1% each. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 11605-11591 was the immediate support zone while 11800-11850 is the resistance zone to eye.

Nifty, after touching a low of 11635, reversed to touch a high of 11843 before closing at 11831.

A crossover of 11844, the high made yesterday, would confirm a buy on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further upmove.

11945, the two-third retracement level of the recent 12103-11625 fall, is would be the next target to eye if that happens. Above 11945, 12103, the top made in early June, would be the next target to eye.

11745 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11800-11850 RESISTANCE ZONE; 11600 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11800-11850 RESISTANCE ZONE; 11600 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices rose 0.2%-0.4%  after the Federal Reserve opened the door for looser monetary policy in the near future.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as was widely expected. It, however, dropped the word “patient ” from its statement and said it would “act as appropriate” to sustain the economy. The Fed’s rate projections showed that eight Fed members see a cut this year, which markets took as a further sign the central bank was close to cutting rates. Its median forecast, however, still reflected no cuts this year, but additional easing in 2020. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said that some Fed officials believed the case for easier monetary policy had strengthened.

Treasury yields fell following the announcement, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 2.02%.

WTI crude fell 14 cents to $53.67 a barrel while Brent eased 29 cents to $61.85.

In Europe, FTSE and DAX fell 0.5% and 0.2% respectively while CAC was up 0.2%. UK consumer prices rose to an annual rate of 2% in May, matching expectations.

AT HOME

It was nothing less than a roller-coaster ride as benchmark indices, after rising nearly a percent in the initial trade, plunged a percent and half from the top and then rebounded sharply in last half an hour to end flat to modestly higher. Sensex settled at 39112, up 66 points while Nifty ended flat at 11691. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however fell 0.7% and 1.4% respectively to close at one-month low. BSE Realty and Consumer Durable indices gained 1.2% and 0.9% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare index tumbled 1.3%, becoming top loser, followed by 1% lower Auto and Telecom indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 97 cr and 673 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 354 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 105 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 69.68/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Shaghai is flat while Nikkei and Hang Seng are up about a fourht of a percent. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that "11800 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, which will be followed by 20-DMA placed around 11850, making 11800-11850 immediate resistance zone".

Nifty, after touching a high of 11802 in the initial trade, reversed to touch a low of 11625 before closing at 11691, vindicating our view. The benchmark is set to open near 11750 today.

11800-11860, where 11802 is the top made yesterday and 11860 is where 20-DMA is placed, continues to be immediate resistance zone.

On the way down, 11605-11591 is the supprt zone where 11605 is the 50% retracement level of the entire 11108-12103 upmove, and roughly coincides with 11591, the upper end of the gap created by big gap-up opening after the exit polls.

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM OUR INDICATED SUPPORT LINE; 11850-11850 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM OUR INDICATED SUPPORT LINE; 11850-11850 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices surged 1%-1.4% after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet he had a very good telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that both would hold an extended meeting at the G20 summit later this month.

US oil rose $1.75 or 3.4% to $53.90 a barrel while Brent added $1.07 or 1.8% to reach $62.01.

European markets climbed 1.2%-2.5%. A speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested that the ECB will provide more stimulus, either through new rate cuts or asset purchases, if inflation does not pick up.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by a fifth of a percent after a choppy session, with Sensex breaking 4-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 39046, up 85 points while Nifty added 19 points to finish at 11691. BSE mid-cap index gained 0.1% but small-cap index fell 0.4%. BSE Oil & Gas index climbed 1.1%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.8% higher IT index. Healthcare and Auto indices were the top losers, down half a percent each.

FIIs net bought stocks, index future and stock futures worth Rs 32 cr, 119 cr and 53 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 181 cr.

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 69.70/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is leading Asian markets with gain of more than 2.5% while Shanghai and Nikkei are up 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 60 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that "11657, the low made yesterday, also coincides with lower band of bollinger on daily chart as well as a downward sloping trendline adjoining recent bottoms on hourly chart and hence is the immediate support to eye".

Nifty touched a low of 10641, which exactly coincided with the downward sloping trendline mentioned above, from where it recovered to end at 11691 and is set to open around 11750 today.

11800 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, which will be followed by 20-DMA placed around 11850, making 11800-11850 immediate resistance zone.

On the way down, 11641, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support to eye, below which 11591, the upper end of the gap created by big gap-up opening after the exit polls, would be the next support.

The Fed, at the end of its two-day policy meeting today, is expected to leave rates unchanged. However, investors will monitor whether policymakers at the central bank lay the groundwork for rate cuts later in the year.

11591 BELOW 11657; 11860 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

11591 BELOW 11657; 11860 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 rose 0.1% each while Nasdaq gained 0.6% as tech shares outperformed.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that President Donald Trump is “perfectly happy ” to slap further tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports if the two countries cannot reach a deal.

In Europe, FTSE and CAC rose 0.2% and 0.4% respectively but DAX fell 0.1%.

WTI crude fell 1.1% to $51.93 a barrel while Brent eased 1.18 to $60.82.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices nosedived a percent and fourth to close at the lowest level since 23rd May, the election result day. Sensex settled at 38960, down 491 points while Nifty lost 151 points to finish at 11672. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1.3% each. Except 0.2% higher Capital Goods index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Realty and Telecom indices leading the losses, down 2.1% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 331 cr and 490 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 58 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 490 cr.

Rupee depreciated 10 paise to end at 69.90/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is flat while Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 0.2% each. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had given downside target of 11770 after 11870 was taken out. We had also said that below 11770, 34-DMA, placed around 11700, would be next support.

In yesterday's sharp fall, Nifty, after achieving 11770 as well as 11700 targets, went further down to touch a low of 11657 before closing at 11672.

11657, the low made yesterday, also coincides with lower band of bollinger on daily chart as well as a downward sloping trendline adjoining recent bottoms on hourly chart and hence is the immediate support to eye.

Below 11657, 11591, the upper end of the gap created by big gap-up opening after the exit polls, would be the next support.

11860 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

The Fed is scheduled to start a two-day monetary policy meeting today. Expectations for any policy changes are low, but investors will look for clues about potential rate cuts in July and later in 2019.

11770 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 11940 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

11770 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 11940 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.1%-0.5% with Nasdaq leading the losses after a sharp decline in Broadcom shares put other chipmakers and the broader tech sector under pressure.

Broadcom fell 5% after posting weaker-than-expected revenue for the previous quarter and cutting its guidance for 2019, citing “broad-based ” demand weakness and the U.S. crackdown on Huawei.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in May, below the 0.6% gain expected by economists. However, April retail sales were revised higher.

US crude rose 23 cents to $52.74 and Brent gained 70 cents to reach $62.01 a barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed its estimate for global oil demand growth for the second consecutive month, citing intensifying trade concerns amid fears of a global recession.

Earlier, Shanghai Composite fell 1% after data showed industrial production in China rose 5% last month on a year-over-year basis, the slowest pace of growth in 17 years.

European markets fell 0.1%-0.6%. France reported its EU-harmonized consumer price index (CPI) for May at 0.9% year-on-year and 0.1% month to month, missing forecasts. Italian EU-harmonized CPI also came in at 0.9% year-on-year.

For the week, US indices ended mixed with the Dow and Nasdaq gaining 0.4% and 0.7% respectively while S & P 500 fell 0.2%. Main European markets gained 0.1%-0.4%.  In Asia, Shanghai and Nikkei climbed 1.9% and 1.1% respectively, Hang Seng rose 0.6% while Sensex and Nifty fell 0.4% each. US crude fell 2.7% while Brent was off 1.5%.

AT HOME

After trading in a narrow range for better part of the day, benchmark indices nosedived in lat half an hour to end with cuts of about three fourth of a percent. Sensex lost 289 points to settle at 39452 while Nifty finished at 11823, down 90 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1% and 0.8% respectively. Except 0.2% higher Capital Goods index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Realty and Telecom indices leading the losses, down 2.1% and 1.6% respectively.

The sharp fall in last half an hour was attributed to news that Department of Revenue has been advised by the Commerce Ministry to impose retaliatory tariffs on select US products

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 239 cr and 673 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 366 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 376 cr.

Rupee depreciated 29 paise to end at 69.80/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 0.4% each, extending the losing streak to second straight week.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are little changed while Hang Seng is up about 0.7%. SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

After Nifty broke the immediate support of 11870, we have working with downside target of 11770, which was the bottom made on 7th June. Nifty, on Friday, touched a low of 11797 before closing at 11823 and is set to open flat today.

11770, the low made on 7th June, continues to be support to eye. If that breaks, 34-DMA, placed around 11700, would be the important support.

A trendline adjoining recent tops on the hourly chart presents a resistance around 11940 and that would be the immediate hurdle to eye.