Thursday, September 12, 2019

11140-11220 CONTINUES TO BE TARGET ZONE; 10900 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

11140-11220 CONTINUES TO BE TARGET ZONE; 10900 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices rose 0.7%-1.1%, with the Dow rising for the sixth straight day, as shares of Apple surged.

Apple rose 3.2% after unveiling three new iPhones on Tuesday along with a new Apple Watch and a TV subscription service. Apple also showcased a gaming subscription called Apple Arcade.

On the data front, the U.S. producer price index rose 0.1% in August, as against expectation of it being unchanged.

Earlier, China moved to exempt 16 types of U.S. products from its additional retaliatory tariffs.

WTI crude fell 2.9% to $55.75 a barrel, while Brent fell 2.3% to $60.96 a barrel after Trump discussed easing sanctions on Iran in order to reopen negotiations.

Main European markets gained 0.4%-1%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices rose three tenth of a percent, with Nifty extending the winning streak to fifth consecutive day. Sensex settled at 37270, up 125 points while Nifty added 32 points to finish at 11035. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices soared 1% and 1.4% respectively. BSE Realty and Auto indices soared 4.4% and 3.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1.3% and 1.2% respectively

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 267 cr, 41 cr and 498 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1132 cr.

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 71.65/$.

Yes Bank soared on reports that co-founder Rana Kapoor is in talks with Paytm to sell his stake in the bank. Tata Motors jumped after company's retail sales in China recovered in the month of August.

OUTLOOK

U.S. President Trump tweeted couple of hours back that increased tariffs on 250 billion dollars worth of Chinese goods that were set to kick in on October 1 have now been delayed to October 15 “as a gesture of good will.”

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 11140-11220 is the next target zone and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 10885.

Nifty, after touching a high of 11054, closed at 11035 and is set to open higher today.

11140-11220 continues to be next target zone where 11141 and 11181 are the tops made on 27th August and 9th August respectively while 11220 is where 200-DMA is placed. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10900, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

IIP for July will be released today and is expected to show a growth of 2.26% as against growth of 2% registered in June. CPI for August too will be out and is expected to inch up to 3.28% from 3.15% in July.

The European Central Bank meets today to decide its latest monetary policy, with markets cautiously hopeful of a fresh stimulus package to boost the ailing euro zone economy.


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

11140-11220 IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 10885


11140-11220  IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 10885

WORLD MARKETS

Dow rose 0.3%, extending the winning streak to fifth straight day, while S & P 500 and Nasdaq ended little changed as technology stocks fell.

On the US-China trade front, South China Morning Post reported yesterday that China has offered to increase U.S. agricultural purchases in exchange for a delay in tariffs and easing of a supply ban against telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies.

Earlier, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said there is a “conceptual agreement” around intellectual property theft with China. This is one of the most contentious issues between both countries. Meanwhile, Huawei dropped one of its lawsuits against the U.S. after some equipment seized by Washington nearly two years ago was returned to the company.

Brent futures fell 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.25 a barrel while WTI futures settled 45 cents, or 0.8% lower, at $57.40 a barrel.

European markets, except 0.6% lower Italy, gained 0.1%-0.8%. In UK, lawmakers early Tuesday morning rejected Johnson’s second bid to hold a snap general election. British Parliament is now suspended until October 14 with the Brexit outcome no clearer.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices gained nearly half a percent on Monday, with Nifty extending the winning streak to fourth straight day. Sensex settled at 37145, up 163 points while Nifty added 56 points to finish at 11003. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1% and 0.9% respectively. Except 0.8% and 0.5% lower IT and Teck indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Telecom and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 1.7% each.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 188 cr and 53 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 221 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of RS 686 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 71.70/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In Monday's report we had said that "10980 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required to generate a "Buy" on the hourly chart. If that happens, 11140-11200 would be the next target zone".

Nifty crossed 10980 hurdle and touched a high of 11028 before closing at 11003 and is set

11140-11220 is the next target zone where 11141 and 11181 are the tops made on 27th August and 9th August respectively while 11220 is where 200-DMA is placed.

10885 is where immediate support is placed on hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

Monday, September 9, 2019

10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10816 NEAREST SUPPORT


10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10816 NEAREST SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 rose 0.3% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq fell 0.2% on Friday after digesting August employment report.

The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August, lower than the expected 150000 mark. Unemployment remained steady at a rate of 3.7% while wages expanded by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.2% y-o-y.

Fed Chairman Powell said the central bank will act as needed to sustain the current economic expansion, noting he does not expect the U.S. economy to fall into a recession.

Treasury yields dipped from their session highs on the jobs data with the 10-year  yield down to 1.57% from around 1.6% earlier in the day.

Main European markets gained 0.2%-0.5%. Euro zone GDP expanded by 0.2% in the second quarter, after a 0.4% expansion in the first three months of the year.

Brent crude rose 52 cents, or 0.9%, tot $61.47 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 22 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $56.52.

For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 both gained 1.5% while the Nasdaq climbed 1.8%.

Data released yesterday showed China's August exports fell 1% on-year, as against estimate of a 2% rise. Earlier, on Friday, the Chinese central bank said the reserve requirement ratio would be cut by 50 basis points and it would further reduce that ratio by 100 basis points for some qualified banks.

AT HOME

After a positive start, benchmark indices saw a sustained northward move through the session to end higher by nine tenth of a percent, with Nifty extending the winning streak to third straight day. Sensex added 337 points to settle at 36981 while Nifty added 98 points to finish at 10946. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Except  0.7% and 0.2% lower Realty and FMCG indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Auto and Power indices leading the tally, up 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 957 cr and 375 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 309. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1207 cr.

Rupee appreciated 12 paise to end at 71.12/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty lost 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that 10980 continues to be immediate hurdle while 10746, the low made Wednesday, continues to be immediate support.

On Friday, Nifty surged to touch a high of 10957 before closing at 10946 and is set to open modestly higher today.

10980 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required to generate a "Buy" on the hourly chart. If that happens, 11140-11200 would be the next target zone.

Meanwhile 10816, the low made Thursday, is the immediate support below which, 10746, the low made last week, would be next support to eye.

Friday, September 6, 2019

10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10746 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10746 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 1.3%-1.8% and treasury yield jumped after the U.S. and China agreed to meet next month in Washington to discuss trade and economic data came in better-than-expected.

Data from ADP and Moody's Analytics showed private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 195,000, beating expected figure of 140,000. The Institute for Supply Management said the U.S. services sector expanded at a faster-than-expected rate last month.

Brent crude gained 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $60.86 a barrel. WTI crude added 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $56.30 a barrel.

Gold slumped more than 2% and silver shed 4% on account of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and hopes of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war.

European markets, except 0.6% lower FTSE, gained 0.8%-1.5%.

AT HOME

After a choppy session, Nifty ended little changed while Sensex lost a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 36644, down 80 points while Nifty finished at 10847, up 3 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and Metal indices climbed 2.5% and 2.4% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Finance indices were the top losers, down 1.8% and 1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 561 cr and 955 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 232 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 699 cr.

Rupee appreciated 27 paise to end at 71.84/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.1%-0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that immediate hurdle on the hourly chart was placed around 10980 while 10746, the low made Wednesday, was the immediate support below which 10637, the bottom made in August, would be the crucial support to eye.

Nifty, after touching a high of 10920, slipped to end at 10847 and is set to open modestly higher today.

10980 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required to generate a "buy" on the hourly chart. If that happens, 11140-11200 would be the next target zone.

10746, the low made Wednesday, continues to be immediate support upon breach of which, 10637, the bottom made in August, would be the crucial support to eye.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

10637 BELOW 10746; 10980 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE


10637 BELOW 10746; 10980 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 1%-1.3% as tensions in Hong Kong between the government and protesters eased after the withdrawal of a controversial bill. Gains in banking and technology stocks and economic data from China also helped the gains.

Bank stocks got a boost as the U.S. yield curve uninverted, with the 10-year rate trading above its 2-year counterpart.

Hang Seng surged 4% after Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said that she will withdraw a contentious extradition bill that has sparked months of mass protests.

Data earlier showed China’s Caixin/Markit Services PMI came in at 52.1 in August — its highest reading since May, despite broader economic headwinds.

Sentiment also got a boost after New York Fed President said in a speech the central bank will act as appropriate to sustain the current economic expansion.

Brent crude surged 4.14%, to $60.66 a barrel, while U.S. West WTI crude rose 4.3%, to $56.26.

European markets rose 0.6%-1.6% after British lawmakers defeated Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government in a vote to seize control of parliamentary business, moving closer to blocking a no-deal Brexit.

AT HOME

After falling about half a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices reverse the losses to end higher by four tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 36724, up 161 points while Nifty added 46 points to finish at 10844. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Telecom and Metal indices soared 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto and Consumer Durable indices were the top losers, down 1.7% and 1.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1738 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1039 cr and 76 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1305 cr.

Rupee appreciated 28 paise to end at 72.11/$.

Maruti shares plunged 3.6% after announcing no-production days at Gurugram and Manesar plants on 7th and 9th September. Sun Pharma tumbled 2.9% after SEBI ordered a forensic audit against the company.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and and Shanghai are trading with gains of 1.7% and 0.9% respectively while Hang Seng is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

After Nifty achieved 10800 target, we had given next downside target of 10637 in yesterday's report. Nifty, after touching a low of 10746, reversed to end at 10844.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart is placed around 10980.

10746, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support, upon breach of which 10637, the bottom made in August, would be the crucial support to eye.

Meanwhile, positional shorts can be held on to with the stop-loss of 10980.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

NIFTY ACHIEVES 10800 TARGET; 10990 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE


NIFTY ACHIEVES 10800 TARGET; 10990 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and Nasdaq tumbled 1.1% while S & P 500 fell 0.7% after US and China began imposing new tariffs on each other’s goods and weak manufacturing data dented sentiment.

The U.S. imposed 15% tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods on Sunday, while China imposed new charges on U.S. products from Sept. 1. On Monday, Beijing filed a complaint against Washington at the World Trade Organization over U.S. import duties. China claimed the latest round of tariffs violated a consensus reached by leaders of both countries in Osaka, Japan

The Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing activity contracted last month for the first time since early 2016.

WTI crude futures fell $1.68, or 3.1%, to $53.42 a barrel while Brent lost 92 cents, or 1.6%, to $57.74.

Spot gold rose 0.83% to $1,543.11 per ounce. The 30-year Treasury yield traded at 1.95% after hitting an all-time low last week. The 10-year note yield fell to 1.47%.

European markets fell 0.2%-0.5%. Sterling broke below $1.20 in early trade amid Britain’s political uncertainty. It recovered slightly to trade at $1.2088 by the end of the European session as rebel lawmakers applied for an emergency debate in parliament in the hope of thwarting a no-deal Brexit.

On the data front, U.K. construction PMI data missed forecasts, indicating further drags from political uncertainty. Euro zone producer prices inched up in July after four months of decline, due to an increase in energy prices.

AT HOME

Sesnex and Nifty nosedived just over 2%, registering biggest percentage fall since 11th October 2018 and 8th July 2019 respectively. Sensex settled at 36562, down 770 points while Nifty lost 225 points to finish at 10797. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1.6% and 1.3% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Metal and Energy indices leading the losses, down 3.2% and 3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 2016 cr and 904 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 214 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1251 cr.

Rupee depreciated 100 paise to end at 72.40/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is up a percent while Shanghai and Nikkei are little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty broke immediate support of 10915, we were working with downside targets of 10830 followed by 10800, which were the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 10637-11141 upmove.

Nifty yesterday plunged all the way to 10772 before closing at 10797, achieving 10800 target and vindicating our view.

10637, the bottom made in August, is the next downside target/support to eye. If that gives way, 34-month moving average, placed around 10460, would be the next crucial support to eye.

Meanwhile, immediate hurdle on the hourly chart is placed around 10990, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

10830-10800 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT ZONE; 11141 IMMEDIATE HURDLE


10830-10800 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT ZONE; 11141 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US markets were shut yesterday for Labour Day holiday.

On Friday, Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.2% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq fell 0.1%.

China and the U.S. kicked off a new round of trade tariffs on one another’s imports over the weekend, despite signs that talks could resume in September. Media reports yesterday suggested that China had lodged a complaint against the U.S. with the World Trade Organization.

Brent crude fell 64 cents to $58.61 a barrel while U.S. oil fell 33 cents to $54.77.

Yesterday, European markets gained upto a percent with FTSE on the top as manufacturing data in both China and Europe showed slight improvement. Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 47 in August from 46.5 in July.

U.K. manufacturing PMI nosedived at its fastest rate in seven years, falling to 47.4 from 48.0. U.K. lawmakers will bring forward legislation this week seeking to block the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.

AT HOME

After falling about two third of a percent in the morning session, benchmark indices saw a smart rebound in noon trade to end higher by seven tenth of a percent, breaking two-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 37332, up 263 points while Nifty added 75 points to finish at 11023. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1% and 0.8% respectively. BSE Metal index gained 1.8%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.7% higher FMCG and Healthcare indices. Power and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, down 0.6% and 0.5% respectively

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1163 cr, 964 cr and 1110 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1502 cr.

Rupee appreciated 40 paise to end at 71.40/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.7% and 1.8% respectively, breaking two week losing streak. For the month of August, Sensex and Nifty fell 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight month.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday announced consolidation of 10 state-run lenders into four bigger banks. PNB, OBC and UBI will be brought together to form the second-largest state-run bank in the country. The second merger will be between Canara Bank and Syndicate Bank, which will make it the fourth-largest public sector lender. In the third, UBI will be merged with Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank to build India’s fifth-largest public sector bank. Indian Bank will be merged with Allahabad Bank to make India’s seventh-largest PSB.

India's GDP growth slipped to 25 quarter or over 6-year low of 5% in April-June quarter, as against 5.8% figure in Q4 FY19 and 8% in Q1FY19.

August GST collections came in at Rs 98200 cr, lowest this fiscal and as against 1.02 lakh cr in July.

July eight core industries growth stood at 2.1% vs 0.7% in June. August Nikkei manufacturing PMI came in at 15-month low of 51.4 vs 52.5 in July.

Maruti August sales dipped 32.7% y-o-y to 1.06 lakh units. M & M auto sales fell 25% to 36085 units while tractor sales were down 17% at 14187 units. Escorts tractor sales fell 16.1% to 4035 units. Tata Motors reported 49% fall in domestic sales at 29140 units. Eicher Motors motorcycle sales fell 24% to 69377 units.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Shanghai is little changed while Hang Seng and Nikkei are trading with modest gains. SGX Nifty is trading around 10940, suggesting around 120 points lower start when compared with Friday's close of Nifty future.

In Friday's report we had said that 10915 was the immediate support on the hourly chart upon breach of which, 10830, followed by 10800, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 10637-11141 upmove, would be next downside targets/supports to eye.

Nifty broke 10915 support and touched a low of 10874, from where it reversed to touch a high of 11042 before closing at 11023 but is set to open near 10900 today.

10830, followed by 10800, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 10637-11141 upmove, continue to be support levels to eye.

11141, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle.