NIFTY SET TO ACHIEVE 34-DMA TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11320

NIFTY SET TO ACHIEVE 34-DMA TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11320

WORLD MARKETS

US indices plunged 1.2%-1.7% as optimism around the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks faded.

The U.S. expanded its trade blacklist to include some of China’s top artificial intelligence firms on Monday, punishing Beijing for its treatment of predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities. China’s foreign ministry said to “stay tuned” for retaliation following the blacklist expansion.

Earlier, the South China Morning Post reported China is toning down its expectations ahead of trade negotiations with the US. The report said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He — who will lead the country’s trade delegation — will not carry the title of “special envoy,” signaling he has not received any specific instructions by President Xi Jinping.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will expand its balance sheet “soon.” as a response to the recent funding issues the bond market faced in recent weeks.

On the data front, U.S. producer prices posted their biggest drop in eight months in September, dragged down by lower costs for goods and services.

Brent crude fell 45 cents, or 0.8%, to $57.90 a barrel and WTI eased 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $52.63.

European markets fell 0.8%-1.2%. The pound fell sharply against the dollar after several British media outlets reported that Brexit talks between the U.K. and European Union were close to breaking down. Data showed a surprise increase in German industrial output for August which rose by 0.3% on the month against expectations of a 0.1% fall.

AT HOME

After gaining about half a percent at the open, benchmark indices nosedived a percent from the top of the day to end lower by four tenth of a percent, extending the losing streak to sixth straight day. Sensex settled at 37532, down 141 points while Nifty lost 48 points to finish at 11126. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.24% and 0.8% respectively. Healthcare and Oil & Gas indices were the top losers among the BSE sectoral indices, down 2.4% and 1.8% respectively while Consumer Durables and Telecom indices were the top gainers, up  1% and 0.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 494 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 611 cr and 385 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 905 cr.

Rupee depreciated 14 paise to end at 71.02/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.6%-0.9% and SGX Nifty is trading around 11120, suggesting about 40 points lower start for our market when compared to Monday's close of Nifty future.

At the risk of repeating, we have been negative on Nifty since 11381 support was broken on 1st October and have been advising holding on to short positions with a trailing stop-loss.

After 200-DMA support of 11250 was breached we had given next target of 11090, where 34-DMA was placed. Nifty, on Monday, plunged to a low of 11112 before closing at 11126 and is set to open below 11000.

34-DMA, placed around 11090 continues to be immediate support. If that does not hold, 11008, the 67% retracement level of the entire 10670-11695 upmove, would be the next important support to eye.

Meanwhile, immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 11320, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

11247 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 11491 NEAREST HURDLE

11247 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 11491 NEAREST HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.5%-1.1%, rebounding from steep, 2-day sell-off, amid increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this month.

ISM’s reading on the U.S. services sector fell last month to its lowest level since August 2016.

Brent oil futures fell just 1 cent to $57.68 a barrel while WTI crude settled down 19 cents to $52.45.

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.6% while CAC and Italy rose 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Markit September final composite PMI came in at 50.1, down from 51.9 in August, while services PMI slipped to 51.6 from 53.5 the previous month. German and French services PMI both missed expectations, coming in at 51.4 (versus 52.5 forecast) and 51.1 (versus 51.6 forecast) respectively. Figures out of Spain showed that its services sector grew at a slower pace in September, cooling from August’s five-month high to come in at 53.3, down from 54.3.

AT HOME

After falling nearly a percent in the initial trade, Sesnex and Nifty recouped nearly half of the losses through the session to end lower by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, extending the losing streak to fourth straight day. Sensex settled at 38106, down 198 points while Nifty lost 46 points to finish at 11314. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Metal and Basic Material indices tumbled 3% and 1.8% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Oil & Gas and Realty indices were the top gainers, up 1.8% and 1.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 811 cr and 1063 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 97 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 863 cr.

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 70.88/$.

Yes Bank soared after lender sold all the shares pledged by promoters on Tuesday, removing the promoter share sale overhang.

OUTLOOK

Shanghai continues to remain shut while Nikkei is down 0.2% and Hang Seng is up 0.2% in today's trade. SGX Nifty is suggesting 15-20 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that below 11381, we had given downside target of 11250 for Nifty, where 200-DMA was placed. Nifty achieved this target on Tuesday by touching a low of 11248 before closing at 11360. Yesterday, it retested this bottom by touching a low of 11257 before closing at 11314.

11248, the bottom made on Tuesday, continues to be important immediate support to eye. If that breaks, 34-DMA, placed around 11080, would be the next support.

11491 continues to be immediate resistance on the hourly chart, upon crossover of which 11695, the top made last week, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

RBI's monetary policy committee is widely expected to cut rate for the 5th time in a row when it wraps up its meeting today. The magnitude of rate cut may vary from 25 bps to 40 bps. It is also expected to cut its GDP growth forecast, bringing it closer to six percent mark.

NIFTY ACHIEVES 11250 TARGET; 11490 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY ACHIEVES 11250 TARGET; 11490 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices nosedived 1.6%-1.9%, extending Tuesday's steep losses, on fears of an economic recession.

Three main indices had already fallen 1.1%-1.3% on Tuesday after the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing activity fell last month to its lowest level in more than 10 years.

Brent futures fell 2.3% to $57.51 a barrel and WTI futures fell 1.8% to $52.64 a barrel after official data showed a rise in U.S. crude inventories.

European markets tumbled 2.7%-3.2%. A leading German economic institutes revised down German GDP growth for 2019 from 0.8% to 0.5% and cut 2020 projections from 1.8% to 1.1%. Elsewhere, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson presented his final Brexit offer to the European Union.

AT HOME

After a positive start, benchmark indices nosedived more than two and a half percent from top of the day but rebounded smartly in last hour to end lower by a percent. Sensex settled at 38305, down 361 points while Nifty lost 114 points to finish at 11359. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 1.5% and 1.6% respectively. Except a marginally higher Oil & Gas and flat Consumer Durable indices, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Telecom and Realty indices leading the losses, down 4.5% and 3.9% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 1299 cr and 731 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 164 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1503 cr.

Rupee depreciated 21 paise to end at 71.08/$.

Maruti reported 24.4% y-o-y dip in sales at 1.22 lakh units but rose 15% month-on-month (m-o-m). Bajaj Auto sales fell 20% y-o-y to 4.02 lakh units but rose 3% m-o-m. Ashok Leyland sales fell 55% y-o-y to 8780 unit but rose 5.8% m-o-m. M & M total sales fell 21% y-o-y to 43343 units but rose 20% m-o-m. Tractor sales fell 2% y-o-y to 37011 units. Escorts tractor sales rose 2% y-o-y to 10855 units. 

GST collection slipped below Rs 92000 cr in September, hitting its lowest level since February 2018. This was also lower than the last financial year's average monthly collection of Rs 95000 cr.

OUTLOOK

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said it will impose tariffs on European Union goods on October 18.

Today, Shanghai continues to be shut while Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 2% and 0.7% respectively. SGX Nifty trading around 11340, suggesting around 90 points lower start when comapred to Tuesday's close of Nifty futures.

In Tuesday's report we had reiterated the view that 11381, the lower end of the gap created by gap up opening on 23rd September, continued to be immediate support below which, 200-DMA, placed around 11250, would be the next support to eye.

Nifty broke 11381 support and plunged all the way to 11248, achieving 200-DMA target and vindicating our view. From there, the index rebounded to end at 11359 but is set to open below 11300 today.

11248, the bottom made on Tuesday, is now the important immediate support to eye. If that breaks, 34-DMA, placed around 11080, would be the next support.

11491 is the immediate resistance on the hourly chart, upon crossover of which 11695, the top made last week, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

Meanwhile, trading shorts can be held on to with the stop-loss of 11491.

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM 11380 SUPPORT; 11695 CONTINUES TO BE HURDLE

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM 11380 SUPPORT; 11695 CONTINUES TO BE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.4%-0.8% amid optimism around U.S.-China trade talks.

Treasury spokeswoman told Bloomberg on Saturday that the administration had no plans to impose restrictions at this time, before White House trade advisor Peter Navarro claimed in an interview with CNBC on Monday that the reports were “fake news.”

Earlier, data showed China’s official PMI increased from 49.5 in August to 49.8 in September, but remained below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Brent crude futures fell $1.16, or 1.9%, to $60.75 a barrel and WTI crude futures fell $1.84, or 3.3%, to settle at $54.07.

European markets, except 0.2% lower FTSE, gained 0.4%-0.7%. Data showed euro zone’s jobless rate fell to 7.4%, its lowest level in more than 11 years during August, raising hopes that the bloc can avoid a recession. A final estimate of U.K. second-quarter GDP showed the British economy contracting by 0.2%.

AT HOME

After falling nearly a percent in the first half, Sensex and Nifty recouped more than half of the losses later to end lower by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, extending the losing streak to second straight day. Sensex lost 155 points to settle at 38667 while Nifty finished at 11474, down 38 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 1.1% and 1.2% respectively. BSE Bankex and Finance indices nosedived 2.6% and 2.4% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Telecom and Teck indices were the top gainers, up 3.9% and 2.4% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 469 cr and 182 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 701 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 505 cr.

Rupee depreciated 31 paise to end at 70.87/$.

For the month, Sensex and Nifty gained 3.6% and 4.1% respectively, breaking 3-month losing streak.

India's core sector output contracted by 0.5% in August as aginst growth of 2.7% in the previous month.

Fiscal deficit in April-August 2019 period hit 79% of full year target.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are shut while Nikkei is up 0.8%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 11695-11381 continues to be immediate range, a crossover of which, on either side, is required for a fresh move. We had also advised holding on to existing longs with the stop-loss of 11381.

Nifty, after touching a low of  11390, rebounded to close at 11474, holding on to 11381 support and vindicating our view.

11381, the lower end of the gap created by gap up opening on 23rd September, continues to be immediate support. If that gives way, 200-DMA, placed around 11250, would be the next support to eye.

11695, the top made last week, continues to be immediate support, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

11695-11381 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

11695-11381 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

WORLD MARKETS

Nasdaq tumbled 1.1% while S & P 500 and Dow fell 0.5% and 0.3% respectively on Friday after reports that the White House is considering limits on U.S. investment into China.

Shares of Alibaba plunged 5.1% on the news. Other Chinese stocks like Baidu and JD.com also traded lower.

Data showed U.S. consumer spending slowed more than expected in August.

WTI crude futures fell 0.9% to $55.91 and brent crude futures dropped 1.4% to $61.89 after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani claimed that the U.S. offered to remove all sanctions on Iran in exchange for negotiations.

European markets gained 0.3%-1%. Eurozone economic sentiment came in at its weakest since February 2015, sinking from 103.1 in August to 101.7 in September. Consumer confidence in September improved slightly to -6.5 from -7.1 in August, while business climate measures declined to -0.22 in September from +0.12 in August.

For the week, US indices fell 0.4%-2.1% with Nasdaq leading the losses.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty fell 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, extending the consolidation within the highs and lows made earlier during the week. Sensex lost 167 points to settle at 38822 while Nifty finished at 11512, down 59 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Except 1.1% and 0.1% higher Telecom and Energy indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral  indices ended in red with  Metal and Realty indices leading the losses down 2.8% and 2.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 214 cr, 260 cr and 1055 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 459 cr.

Rupee appreciated 32 paise to end at 70.56/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty climbed 2.1% each, extending the winning streak to third consecutive week.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto 0.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

For past couple of sessions we have been mentioning that 11695, the top made last Monday, is the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove while 11381, the lower end of the gap created by gap-up opening on Monday, is the immediate support.

Nifty has been consolidating within these levels for past four sessions and is set to open around Friday's close, 11512.

11695-11381 continues to be immediate range, a crossover of which, on either side, is required for a fresh move. Once 11695 is taken out, 11981, the top made in July, would be the next target to eye.

Meanwhile, trading longs can be held on to with the stop-loss of 11381.

11695-11381 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

11695-11381 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.2%-0.6% as markets monitored the latest trade developments and assessed a whistleblower complaint against President Donald Trump that was released.

Media reports suggested that the U.S. is unlikely to extend a temporary waiver that allows U.S. companies to sell supplies to Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications giant. On the flip side, China’s foreign Minister Wang Yi said the U.S. has shown good will by waiving tariffs and China is willing to buy more American products.

The U.S. House Intelligence Committee released a declassified version of a whistleblower report alleging Trump used his office to solicit interference in the 2020 presidential election from a foreign country.

Brent crude futures rose 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $62.79 a barrel while WTI crude settled down 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $56.41 a barrel.

European markets gained 0.4%-0.8%. German Gfk consumer confidence survey rose for the first time in 2019 to come in at 9.9 for October following a reading of 9.7 for September.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty soared 1% and 1.2% respectively, nearly recouping losses suffered in yesterday's session. Sensex settled at 38989, up 396 points while Nifty added 133 points to finish at 11573. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. Except 0.6% and 0.3% lower IT and Teck indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Metal index leading the tally, up 4.2%, followed by 2.7% higher Realty index.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 737 cr, 1080 cr and 264 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 339 cr.

Rupee appreciated 15 paise to end at 70.88/$.

For the September derivative series, Nifty surged 5.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 0.9% and 0.2% respectively while Shanghai is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 11381, the lower end of the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, continued to be immediate support while 11695, the top made on Monday, continued to be immediate hurdle.

Nifty surged to touch a high of 11610 before closing at 11573 and is set to open around 11550 today.

11695, the top made Monday, continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 11981, the top made in July, would be the next upside target.

11381, the lower end of the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, continues to be immediate support.

NIFTY NEARS 11380 SUPPORT; 11695 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY NEARS 11380 SUPPORT; 11695 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.6%-1% after President Trump said a U.S.-China trade deal could arrive sooner than expected. Stronger-than-expected new U.S. home sales data also helped.

Trump told reporters at the United Nations in New York that a U.S.-China deal could come sooner “than you think.” He later said Japan and the U.S. had reached an initial trade agreement.

A rough transcript of Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was released by the White House. It showed Trump asked Zelensky if he could “look into” former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter.

Brent futures fell 1.03% to $62.45 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 1.4% to $56.49 a barrel after U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose.

European markets fell upto 0.8%

AT HOME

Benchmark indices tumbled 1.3% each on the back of profit booking and negative global cues. Sensex settled at 38593, down 503 points while Nifty lost 148 points to finish at 11440. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. BSE Auto and Realty indices slipped 3.8% and 3.1% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Power and Utilities indices were the top gainers, up 1% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 342 cr, 166 cr and 608 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 762 cr.

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 71.03/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 11695, the top made on Monday, was the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. We had also said that "11381, the lower end of the gap created by Monday's gap up opening, continues to be immediate support".

Nifty plunged to touch a low of 11416 before closing at 11440 and is set to open higher today.

11381, as mentioned above, is the lower end of the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, while 11355 is the 33% retracement level of the recent 10670-11695 umpove, making 11380-11355 immediate support zone. If 11355 breaks, next support will come at 11180, which is the 50% retracement level of the aforementioned upmove.

11695, the top made on Monday, continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.