11883 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 12030 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

11883 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 12030 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.3%-0.4%, breaking 3-day winning streak,

China Assistant Commerce Minister said yesterday the country hopes to make a deal with the U.S. "as soon as possible." His comment came after data showed Chinese exports declined in November for the fourth consecutive month, falling 1.1% y-o-y compared to the 1% expansion anticipated.

Brent futures fell 14 cents, or 0.22%, to  settle at $64.25 a barrel while WTI oil futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $59.02.

Main European markets fell 0.1%-0.6%. German import and export data for October showed a growth of 1.2% despite global trade tensions.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended marginally higher, breaking two-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 40487, up 42 points while Nifty finished at 11937, up 16 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however ended lower by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, with later closing at the lowest level since 25^th October. BSE Energy and Oil & Gas indices rose 1% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Realty indices were the top losers, down 1% each.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 459 cr, 15 cr and 667 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 75 cr.

Rupee appreciated 15 paise to end at 71.03/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading flat to modestly lower and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

After nearly achieving our downside target of 11883 on Friday, Nifty yesterday closed at 11937.

11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, continues to be important immediate support, upon breach of which, 11802, the bottom made in November, would be the next support.

12030, where a downward sloping trendline adjoining recent tops is placed, is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which 12158, the top made in November, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

NIFTY NEARLY ACHIEVES 11883 TARGET; 12050 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY NEARLY ACHIEVES 11883 TARGET; 12050 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 0.9%-1.2% on Friday on the back of strong U.S. employment report.

The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, easily beating expected figure of 187,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching its lowest level since 1969.

Treasury yields climbed to their session highs after the data with the benchmark 10-year yield trading at 1.84% while the 2-year rate was at 1.62%. Gold futures shed 1.2% to settle at $1,465.10 per ounce.

WTI crude futures gained 1.3%, to settle at $59.20 a barrel while Brent gained 1.6% to settle at $64.37 as OPEC and its allies agreed to deepen oil production cuts to 500,000 barrels a day through to March 2020. This brings the total production cut to 1.7 million barrels a day.

European markets gained 0.9%-1.5%.  Germany’s industrial output for October fell 1.7% against a market expectation of a 0.1% increase in activity. In France, data showed a drop of 4.73 billion euros in its trade deficit.

For the week, Dow and Nasdaq fell 0.1% each while S & P 500 was up 0.2%. In Europe, FTSE tumbled 1.4% while DAX and CAC eased 0.5% each. In Asia, Shanghai climbed 1.4%, Hang Seng and Nikkei rose 0.6% and 0.3% respectively but India fell nearly a percent.

AT HOME

Bechmark indices plunged eight tenth of a percent to close at the lowest level in two weeks. Sensex lost 334 points to finish at 40445 while Nifty finished at 11921, down 97 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices slipped 1.3% and 0.9% respectively. Except 0.2% higher IT index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Auto index leading the losses, down 1.8%, followed by 1.3% lower Realty, Finance and Utilities indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 868 cr and 355 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 240 cr. DIIs were net buyers worth Rs 211 cr.

Rupee appreciated 9 paise to end at 71.19/$.

Yes Bank tumbled after Moody's Investors Service downgraded the private lender’s credit rating and also assigned a 'negative outlook' to the company.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty lost 0.8% and 1.1% respectively, with Sensex breaking 5-week winning streak.

OUTLOOK

China’s overseas shipments dropped 1.1% year-on-year in November, below the 1.0% expansion expected.  Imports however rose 0.3% — exceeding projections for a 1.8% decline.

Today morning, Asian markets are trading flat to modestly higher and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty broke 20-DMA support placed around 11975, we were working with next downside target of 11883, which was the bottom made on 22nd November.

Nifty, on Friday, touched a low of 11888, before closing at 11921, nearly achieving 11883 target mentioned above and vindicating our view.

11883 continues to be important immediate support, upon breach of which, 11802, the bottom made in November, would be the next support.

12050 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart above which 12158, the top made in November, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 12070 HURDLE; 11935 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 12070 HURDLE; 11935 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended marginally higher, digesting strong employment data and monitoring the latest news from the U.S.-China trade negotiations.

U.S. weekly jobless claims dropped 203,000 last week, their lowest in six months and below a Reuters estimate of 215,000.

Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday the two sides remain in close communications regarding trade. He added that China “believes if both sides reach a phase-one agreement, relevant tariffs must be lowered.”

The U.S. trade deficit tumbled to 7.6% to $47.2 billion in October, a 1½-year low as imports dropped by $4.3 billion.

WTI crude settled unchanged at $58.43 while Brent crude futures rose 44 cents to $63.45, awaiting the decision from OPEC on its production policy.

In Europe, FTSE and DAX fell 0.7% each while CAC ended flat. German industry orders dropped 0.4% in October. The euro zone grew at a pace of 0.2% in the third-quarter of the year, unchanged from the previous quarter.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended lower by a fifth of a percent after a choppy session. Sensex settled at 40779, down 70 points while Nifty lost 24 points to finish at 12018. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.3% while small-cap index ended flat. BSE Telecom and Metal indices tumbled 2.6% and 2.4% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while IT and Consumer Durables indices were the top gainers, up 1% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 653 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 665 cr and 273 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 410 cr.

Rupee appreciated 24 paise to end at 71.28/$.

As against the wide expectation of a rate cut, the Monetary Policy Committee of RBI unanimously decided to keep key repo rate unchanged at 5.15%, as it decides to wait for past policy actions, undertaken by the government and the central bank, to play out. The RBI said it will maintain an “accommodative stance as long as it is necessary". RBI cut GDP growth forecast to 5% for FY20 and 5.9%-6.3% for H1 FY21. It raise inflation forecast for H2 FY20 to 5.1%-4.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.1%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 12070, the top made on Tuesday, continued to be immediate hurdle while 11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, continued to be downside support to eye.

Nifty, after touching a high of 12081, plunged to 11998 before closing at 12018.

12081, the top made yesterday, which roughly coincided with our indicated hurdle, is the immediate resistance, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 12158, the top made last week, would be the next resistance to eye.

11935, the low made Wednesday is the immediate support below which, 11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, would be next major support to eye.

ALL EYES ON RBI

ALL EYES ON RBI

WORLD MARKETS

US indices rose 0.5%-0.6% to break three-day losing streak after a news report from Bloomberg that said the U.S. and China were edging closer to a trade deal. President Trump also said that trade talks with China were going well.

On the flip side, France and the wider European Union have promised to retaliate against potential U.S. tariffs on French goods. Also, the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the Trump administration has not ruled out imposing tariffs on imported European autos, despite not announcing a decision in November on whether to put additional levies on cars in the region.

Data from ADP and Moody’s Analytics showed private payrolls rose by just 67,000 last month, well below an estimate of 150,000.

WTI crude futures surged $2.33, or 4.2%, to $58.43 a barrel while Brent crude futures gained $2.31, or 3.8%, to reach $63.14 on the back of larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories and hopes of deeper production cuts from OPEC lifted prices.

European markets gained 0.4%-1.5%. A final reading of IHS Markit’s euro zone composite PMI came in at 50.6.

AT HOME

After falling about half a percent, benchmark indices saw a sharp reversal in late noon trade to end higher by four tenth of a percent, with Nifty breaking three day losing streak. Sensex settled at 40850, up 175 points while Nifty added 49 points to finish at 12043. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Metal index climbed 1.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.4% higher Bankex and IT indices. Capital Goods and Energy indices were the top losers, down 1.3% and 1.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 781 cr and 736 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 393 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 904 cr.

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 71.52/$.

The Cabinet approved the launch of Bharat Bond Exchange Traded Fund or ETF, which would be be the first corporate bond ETF in the country.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-0.9% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report, we had said that 11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, continued to be next support to eye and that 12070, the top made on Tuesday, was the immediate hurdle, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts could be held on to.

Nifty, after touching a low of 11935, rebounded sharply to touch a high of 12055 before closing at 12043.

12070, the top made on Tuesday, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover which, 12159, the top made last week, would be next target/resistance to eye.

11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, continues to be downside support to eye.

Meanwhile, traders are advised to keep stop-loss of 12070 in short positions.

RBI's monetary policy committee, at the end of its three-day meeting, is widely expected to cut repo rate by 25 bps to 4.9%, marking sixth straight rate cut this year. Markets will also watch out for RBI’s assessment on growth and inflation as well as future rate hikes.

11880 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 12070

11880 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 12070

WORLD MARKETS

US indices tumbled 0.6%-1%, extending the losing streak to third straight day, after President Trump suggested he may want to delay a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential election.

Beijing and Washington D.C. had previously pointed to the possibility of signing a phase one trade deal in the last quarter of 2019.

Furthermore, the U.S. trade representative also said Monday that it could put duties of up to 100% on certain French products. This is on the back of France’s decision to apply a tax on digital companies.

WTI crude futures rose 14 cents to settle at $56.10 a barrel, while Brent futures slid 5 cents to $60.87 a barrel.

In Europe, FTSE and CAC plunged 1.8% and 1% respectively while DAX rose 0.2%.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty ended with cuts of 0.3% and 0.45% respectively, with Nifty extending the losing streak to third straight day. Sensex settled at 40675, down 126 points while Nifty lost 54 points to finish at 11994. BSE Mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 1% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Metal and Basic Materials indices slipped 2.7% and 1.9% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Realty and IT indices were the top gainers, up 1.4% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1131 cr, 368 cr and 605 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 964 cr.

Rupee depreciated 2 paise to end at 71.67/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down more than a percent while Shanghai is off 0.3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 20-DMA, which had moved up to 11975, continued to be immediate support to eye upon breach of which 11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, would be the next support to eye.

Nifty broke 11975 support and touched a low of 11956, but rebounded from there to end at 11994.

11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, continues to be next support to eye.

12070, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

12158 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 20-DMA SUPPORT AT 11975

12158 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 20-DMA SUPPORT AT 11975

WORLD MARKETS

US markets ended with cuts of 0.9%-1.1% after digested disappointing manufacturing data along with the latest trade news.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.1 in November. That’s below an estimate of 49.4.

Sentiment was also dented after President Trump said China still wants to make a deal on trade, “but we’ll see what happens.” Trump also said he will restore tariffs on metal imports from Brazil and Argentina.

Brent futures rose 0.7% to $60.92 a barrel while WTI crude rose 1.4% to settle at $55.96 a barrel on hints the OPEC and its allies may agree to deepen output cuts at a meeting this week and as rising manufacturing activity in China suggested stronger demand.

In Europe CAC and DAX nosedived 2% each while FTSE fell 0.8%. Euro zone manufacturing activity shrank for the 10th month in a row in November, official statistics showed today. However, IHS Markit reported the worst may now be over for the bloc’s battered factories.

AT HOME

It was a day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended little changed after coming off from the highs touch in the initial trade. Sensex settled at 40802, up 8 points while Nifty lost 8 points to finish at 12048. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. BSE Telecom and Energy indices climbed 2.6% and 1.3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto and IT indices were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1731 cr and 307 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 2022 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 754 cr.

Rupee appreciated 9 paise to end at 71.65/$.

India's November Nikkei Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, up from 50.6 in October.

TVS Motor reported 16.7% y-o-y dip in November sales at 2.66 lk units. Hero MotoCorp sold 5.16 lk units, a degrowth of 15.3%. Ashok Leyland sales fell 22% to 10175 units.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-1.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 11965, where 20 DMA as well as a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the hourly chart was placed, was the next support to eye while 12158, the top made last week, was the immediate hurdle.

Nifty, after touching a high of 12137 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 12048.

20-DMA, which has now moved up to 11975, continues to be immediate support to eye. If that gets breached. 11883, the bottom made on 22nd November, would be the next support to eye.

12158, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle.

11965 BELOW 12017; 12158 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

11965 BELOW 12017; 12158 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.4%-0.5% on Friday amid strained relations between the U.S. and China over protests in Hong Kong.

After Trump signed two pieces of legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong, China’s foreign ministry responded, claiming the U.S. had “sinister intentions and added that the country will take “strong counter-measures” against the U.S.

Markets also kept an eye on retail stocks as Black Friday unofficially kicked off the holiday shopping season.

WTI crude futures fell more than 4% to settle at $55.1 while Brent fell $1.44 to settle at $62.43 a barrel on the back of resignation announcement of Iraq’s prime minister after weeks of deadly protests, as well as investors jockeying for position before the OPEC+ meeting next week.

In Europe, FTSE tumbled 0.9% while DAX and CAC fell 0.1% each. Data from U.K. showed consumer confidence remained stuck at its lowest level since 2013 in November, amid uncertainty over the Dec. 12 general election. Meanwhile, French GDP grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, in line with preliminary estimates.

For the week, US indices gained 0.6%-1.7% and European markets rose 0.2%-0.6%. In Asia, Nifty and Nikkei rose 1.2% and 0.8% respectively while Hang Seng and Shanghai fell 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. For the month, US indices surged 3.4%-4.5%, notching their biggest one-month gain since June.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty slipped eight tenth of a percent each on the last day of the week as well as month, breaking two-day winning streak. Sensex lost 336 points to settle at 40793 while Nifty finished at 12056, down 95 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however, rose 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Energy and Metal indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, down 1.5% and 1.3% respectively while Telecom index soared 2.5%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.9% higher Realty index.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1892 cr and 2002 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 191 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 954 cr.

Rupee depreciated 13 paise to end at 71.74/$.

For the week, Sesnex and Nifty gained 1.1% and 1.2% respectively, extending the winning streak to fifth and second consecutive week respectively.  For the month, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.6% and 1.5% respectively, extending the rising streak to third consecutive month.

India's GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the second quarter from 5% in first quarter, marking the slowest pace of growth in over 6 years as manufacturing sector contracted 1%. Core sector, comprising eight core industries, showed a degrowth of 5.8% in October as against degrowth of 5.2% in September. April-October fiscal deficit stood at Rs 7.20 lk cr Vs Rs 6.48 lk cr y-o-y; This is 102.4% of the Rs 7.04 lk cr FY20 target.

GST revenue collection in November stood at Rs 1.03 lk cr, third highest since GST was introduced.

Maruti posted 2% yoy fall in November sales at 1.5 lk units. Tata Motors' total domestic sales fell 25% y-o-y to 38057 units. M & M auto sales fell 9% to 41235 units while tractor sales were down 19% at 25949 units.

Telecom companies announced tariff hikes ranging from 15-40%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-1% but SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points lower start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that 12350 continued to be the next major target/resistance to eye while immediate support on the hourly chart had moved up to 12050, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

Nifty slipped to touch a low of 12017 but rebounded to close at 12056.

11965, where 20 DMA as well as a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the hourly chart is placed, is the next support to eye. If that breaks, 11883, the low made on 22nd November, would be the next important support.

12158, the top made last week, is now the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 12350, where an upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in August 2018 and June 2019 is placed, would be the next major target/resistance to eye.