TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 12095

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 12095

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 ended marginally lower to break five-day winning streak. Nasdaq ended marginally in the green.

FedEx nosedived more than 9% on disappointing quarterly numbers.

Brent futures gained 12 cents to trade at $66.22 a barrel, while U.S. WTI lost 1 cent to settle at $60.93.

In Europe, FTSE gained 0.2% while DAX and CAC fell 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.

The German Ifo business climate survey showed that business morale rose more than expected in December to hit a six-month high. British inflation held steady at a three-year low of 1.5% in November while euro zone inflation accelerated to 1% year-on-year in November from 0.7% in October.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices climbed half a percent, notching fresh record highs. Sensex added 206 points to settle at 41558 while Nifty finished at 12221, up 57 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however fell 0.2% and 0.05% respectively. BSE Metal and Healthcare indices gained 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Utilities and Power indices were the top losers, down 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1837 cr, 667 cr and 208 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1268 cr.

Rupee ended unchanged at 70.97/$.

GST Council, in its 38th meeting, chose not to tamper with the rates despite pressure to boost revenues. Council meanwhile, voted for uniform rate of 28% on lotteries across the country.

Tata Motors slipped on news that the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) restored former Tata group Chairman Cyrus Mistry as executive chairman of Tata Group and also held the appointment of N. Chandra as executive chairman illegal.

OUTLOOK

In a latest development, a majority of the House of Representatives have voted to impeach President Donald Trump for abuse of power. The vote marks only the third time in American history that the House has impeached a president.

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points lower start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had turned our view on Nifty positive after 11980 hurdle was taken out and have been advising holding on to long positions with a trailing stop-loss.

After the benchmark achieved 12158 target, we have been working with next target of around 12330.

The benchmark yesterday touched a high of 12237 before closing at 12221 and is set to open near 12200 today.

Upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in September and November, which is now placed around 12340, continues to be next major upside target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 12095, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

NIFTY ACHIEVES 12158 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 12030

NIFTY ACHIEVES 12158 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 12030

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended marginally higher, hitting fresh record highs and extending the winning streak to fifth straight day.

U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in November as building permits surged to a 12½-year high.

Brent crude rose 67 cents to $66.01 a barrel while WTI crude gained 73 cents to settle at a 3-month high of $60.94.

The British pound dropped more than 1% against the dollar  amid reports that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will amend the Brexit bill, explicitly ruling out any extension to the transition period beyond December 2020. That would leave little time to reach a trade deal with the European Union, raising the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.1% but DAX and CAC fell 0.9% and 0.4% respectively.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices soared a percent to hit fresh record intraday as well as closing highs. Sensex settled at 41352, up 413 points while Nifty added 111 points to finish at 12165. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.4% and  0.7% respectively. BSE Telecom and Metal indices climbed 3.3% and 3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durables index fell 0.7%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.2% lower Healthcare and Realty indices.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 1248 cr and 660 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 44 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 908 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 70.97/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that we had turned our view on Nifty positive afer 11980 hurdle was taken out and have been advising holding on to long positions with a trailing stop-loss. After the benchmark achieved 12080 target, we were working with next target of 12158, the top made in November. We had also said that once 12158 is taken out, 12325, where an upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in September and November is placed, would be the next target to eye.

The benchmark yesterday surged to touch a high of 12182 before closing at 12165, achieving 12158 target and vindicating our view.

Upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in September and November, placed around 12330, continues to be next major upside target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 12030, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

GST council meets today and the agenda include a review of GST and compensation cess rates on various items, rate calibrations for addressing the inverted duty structure, compliance measures other than those currently under implementation to augment revenue.

12158 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11950 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

12158 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11950 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.4%-0.9%, extending the winning streak to fourth straight day and hitting fresh record highs.

National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose in December to its highest level in 20 years and data from IHS Markit showed U.S. business activity hit a five-month high in December.

Earlier, data showed Chinese industrial production rose 6.2% in November on a year-over-year basis, topping expectations. Retail sales in China also jumped 8% last month.

Brent futures rose 16 cents to $65.37 a barrel while WTI crude rose 14 cents to settle near a three-month high of $60.21 a barrel.

European markets surge 0.8%-2.2% with FTSE on the top. IHS Markit euro zone flash composite PMI estimates for December came in line with expectations at 50.6, with service sector outperformance offsetting more disappointing manufacturing numbers. Manufacturing PMIs came in at 45.9 against a forecast of 47.3, down from 46.9 in November.

U.K. flash readings showed that both the services and manufacturing sectors had declined more sharply than expected in December. Composite PMI came in at 48.5, its lowest level since mid-2016, suggesting the world’s fifth-largest economy is on course to contract in the fourth quarter.

AT HOME

After rising about four tenth of a percent at the open, Sensex and Nifty slipped to end lower by a 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, breaking 3-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 40938, down 71 points while Nifty lost 33 points to finish at 12054. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. BSE Telecom and Metal indices tumbled 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top gainers, up 1.2% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 728 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 597 cr and 253 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 796 cr.

Rupee depreciated 18 paise to end at 70.99/$.

November WPI inflation rose to 0.58% from 0.16% in October. Food inflation increased to 9.02% from 7.65%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng and Nikkei are up 0.8% and 0.4% respectively while Shanghai is flat. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty achieved 12080 target on Friday, in yesterday's report we had said that 12158, the top made in November, was the next target/resistance to eye and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 11950.

Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a high of 12135, slipped to end at 12054 but is set to open higher today.

12158, the top made in November, continues to be important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 12325, where an upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in September and November is placed, would be the next target to eye.

11950 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

NIFTY ACHIEVES 12080 TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 11950

NIFTY ACHIEVES 12080 TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 11950

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 ended flat while Nasdaq rose 0.2% on Friday after China and the U.S. agreed to a phase one trade deal.

The trade deal will include a rollback of some of the China tariffs and halts additional levies set to take effect on Sunday. China agreed to buy $40 billion in U.S. agricultural goods. That’s below the $50 billion White House was reportedly looking for. U.S. will roll back some of the prior duties on $120 billion worth of Chinese imports to 7.5% from 15% but keep a 25% levy on $250 billion in goods in place. Investors were hoping for more than just a partial rollback of some tariffs.

Brent as well as WTI crude gained 1.5% each to $65.19 and $60.07 per barrel respectively to their highest level in nearly three months as investors cheered progress in resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute and a decisive general election result in Britain.

European markets gained 0.5%-1.1%. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party won a commanding majority in the country's general election, granting Johnson the power to drive through his Brexit deal and take the U.K. out of the EU before the January 31 deadline.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices soared 1% each, extending the winning streak to third straight day and closing at the highest level since 28th November. Sensex added 428 points to settle at 41009 while Nifty finished at 12086, up 114 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1% and 0.8% respectively. Except 1.6% lower Telecom index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Metal index leading the tally, up 2.3%, followed by 1.7% higher Realty and IT indices.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 116 cr, 1044 cr and 2 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 385 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 70.81/$.

Dr Reddy fell 2.8% on news that a competitor, Amneal Pharmaceticals, received the approval to launch first generic version of Nuvaring, a limited competition drug Dr Reddy has been developing.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.4% each.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are down 0.1% each while Hang Seng is off 0.6%. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Readers would recall that we had turned our view on Nifty positive afer 11980 hurdle was taken out. We had also given an upside target of 12080 which was achieved on Friday itself.

12158, the top made in November, is the next target/resistance to eye. Once that is taken out, upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in September and November, which is placed around 12300, would be the next major target.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 11950, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

12080 NEXT UPSIDE TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 11890

12080 NEXT UPSIDE TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 11890

WORLD MARKETS

US indices climbed 0.7%-0.8%, notching fresh record highs, following news that US and China have agreed to a phase one trade deal in principle, pending U.S. President Donald Trump's approval.

Media reports suggested that the White House has offered to scrap the next round of tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. that are set to take effect on Sunday and has also proposed slashing existing duties on $360 billion in Chinese products by 50%.

Trump had earlier tweeted "Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China.”

British Pound surged 2.26% to $1.346 after an exit poll showed U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party winning a clear majority of parliamentary seats in Thursday's general election.

Brent futures rose 67 cents, or 1%, to $64.39 a barrel while WTI crude futures gained 42 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $59.18.

European markets gained 0.4%-1%. The ECB kept its rates unchanged following new President Christine Lagarde’s first monetary policy meeting. The Ifo Institute on Thursday confirmed its 1.1% growth forecast for the German economy, while revising its 2021 projection up from 1.4% to 1.5%. Euro zone industrial output declined by 0.5% month-on-month in October and was down 2.2% from the same period last year.

AT HOME

Sesnex and Nifty gained 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, extending the winning streak to second straight day. Sensex settled at 40581, up 169 points while Nifty finished at 11971, up 61 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Metal index climbed 2.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.5% higher Industrials index. IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1.5% and 1.4% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 684 cr and 64 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 720 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 810 cr.

Rupee ended unchanged at 70.83/$.

Retail inflation rose to a 40-month high of 5.54% in November as against 4.62% in October. Core CPI remained unchanged at 3.5%. Food inflation surged to 10%. Industrial Production contracted for the third consecutive month by 3.8% in October as against contraction of 5.1% in September.

Infosys slipped after the Schall Law Firm, a US-based shareholder rights litigation firm, announced filing of a class action lawsuit against Infosys in a US court.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.5%-2.3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 11980, where 20-DMA was placed, was the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 12080, the top made on 5th December, would be the next target to eye.

Nifty crossed 11980 hurdle and touched a high of 12005 before closing at 11971.

12080, the top made on 5th December, continues to be next upside target to eye.

11890, the 67% retracement level of the recent 11832-12005, will act as immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 11802 SUPPORT; 11980 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 11802 SUPPORT; 11980 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.1%-0.4% after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would not raise interest rates in 2020.

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged  — capping a year where the Fed cut its benchmark rate three times. The central bank also indicated it does not expect any policy changes through at least 2020. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference the central bank would have to see a persistent rise in inflation before hiking rates once again.

Treasury yields fell broadly. The benchmark 10-year rate slid to 1.781% while the 2-year yield fell to 1.611%.

Brent futures fell 62 cents, or 1%, to settle at $63.72 a barrel while WTI slipped 48 cents, or 0.8%, to $58.76 a barrel following a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories.

In Europe, FTSE ended flat while DAX and CAC rose 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. Sterling slipped against the dollar after a closely-watched final YouGov poll ahead of today’s U.K. election showed the race has tightened considerably in recent weeks, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party now less certain to win an outright majority of seats in Parliament.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by four tenth of a percent after a roller coaster session. Sensex settled at 40412, up 172 points while Nifty added 53 points to finish at 11910. Nifty mid-cap index rose 0.8% but small-cap index fell 0.2%. BSE Utilities index climbed 1.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.1% higher Power and Oil & Gas indices. Capital Goods and Telecom indices fell 0.8% each, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 605 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 20 cr and 282 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 240 cr.

Rupee appreciated 8 paise to end at 70.83/$.

Cabinet yesterday cleared changes in Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme by revising minimum rating of underlying asset pool being purchased to BBB+. Scheme will cover NBFc that slipped into SMA-0 category during 1-year period prior to August 1, 2018.

Cabinet also approved fresh changes to IBC. New norms ring-fence successful applicant from criminal proceedings against offences committed by the previous management of promoters.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 45 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had turned our view on Nifty negative after 12050 support was taken out and have been advising holding on to short positions. After the benchmark achieved 11883 target, we have been working with next support of 11802 and had advised trailing the stop-loss to 11970 in yesterday's report.

The benchmark, after touching a low of 11832, rebounded sharply to close at 11910 and is set to open above 11950 today.

11980, where 20-DMA is placed, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 12080, the top made on 5^th December, would be the next target to eye.

11802, the bottom made in November, continues to be important immediate support.

November CPI will be out today and is expected to rise to 5.17% from 4.62% in October. Core CPI is however expected to remain steady at 3.46% as against 3.5%.. Industrial production for October would also be released today and is expected to show a degrowth of 5.4 as aginst contraction of 4.3% in September.

11802 IS NEXT SUPPORT; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11970

11802 IS NEXT SUPPORT; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11970

US indices fell 0.1% each, tracking developments over US-China trade negotiations.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. plans to delay slapping China with additional tariffs as both sides try to work out the agreement. The report added that U.S. negotiators have also asked Chinese officials to commit to some agricultural purchases upfront before moving forward with a deal. Meanwhile, China wants its agricultural purchases to be proportional with the amount of tariffs the U.S. rolls back. The U.S. is also reportedly pushing for a quarterly review of the promised purchases.

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow, however, said Dec. 15 tariffs are still "on the table."

Earlier, South China Morning post said China and the US are unlikely to reach a trade deal this week.

Brent crude rose 7 cents to $64.32 a barrel and WTI oil rose 22 cents to $59.24 a barrel.

In Europe, FTSE and DAX fell 0.3% each while CAC rose 0.2%. UK GDP rose by just 0.7% y-o-y in October, its slowest annual pace in nearly seven years. The ZEW German economic sentiment indicator surged to 10.7 for December from -2.1 in November.

AT HOME

Sesnex and Nifty tumbled 0.6% and 0.7% respectively to close at one-month low. Sensex settled at 40239, down 247 points while Nifty lost 80 points to finish at 11856. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices slumped 1.3% and 1.1% respectively to close at the lowest level since  29th October and 18th October respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Utilities and Power indices being the top losers, down 2.2% and 1.8% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 367 cr, 142 cr and 539 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 338 cr.

Rupee appreciated 12 paise to end at 70.92/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that we had turned our view on Nifty negative after 12050 support was taken out and have been advising holding on to short positions. On last count, we had said that upon breach of 11883 support, 11802 would be the next level to eye.

Nifty yesterday broke 11883 support and plunged all the way to 11844 before closing at 11856. 11802, the bottom made in November, continues to be next major support to eye.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 11970, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

The Federal Reserve, at the end of its two-day meeting, is expected to keep interest rates steady and may reinforce the message that it will remain on hold for a while after three cuts earlier in the year. Markets would watch out for updated economic forecasts, the so-called ‘dot plot’ where policymakers submit their interest rate projections for the coming years, and Chairman Powell’s remarks.