STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 17700

 

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 17700

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow ended little changed while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.2% and 0.5% respectively after jobs report disappointed.

 

US economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below the estimate of 500,000. On the flip side, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, the same level seen in late 2016 and better than the expectation for 5.1%. Monthly wage gain of 0.6% pushed the year-over-year increase to 4.6%. Plus, August’s jobs report was revised up to 366,000 compared to the initial read of 235,000.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 6 bps to top the 1.60% level, hitting its highest level since June 4. Spot gold rose 1.2% to $1,777.00 per ounce. Dollar index eased 0.1% to 94.103.

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.25% while DAX and CAC fell 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. Germany’s trade balance for August came in at positive 13 billion euros, slightly below a forecast of 15.8 billion euros.

 

For the week, Dow rose 1.2% for its best week since June, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% for its best week since August. The Nasdaq rose just shy of 0.1% since Monday. Dollar index rose 0.6% for its best weekly performance in 5 weeks.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose six tenth of a percent, with Nifty hitting a record high on closing basis. Sensex settled at 60059, up 381 points while Nifty added 105 points to finish at 17895. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.4% and 1.2% respectively to hit fresh record highs. BSE Energy and IT indices climbed 2.7% and 1.8% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Realty index tumbled 2.5%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.8% lower Power index.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 64 cr and 201 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 22 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 168 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 21 paise to end at 7499/$.

 

Monetary Policy Committee left key rate unchanged and also decided to continue with the accommodative stance. RBI maintained FY22 GDP growth estimate at 9.5% with estimates for Q2 and Q3 being raised from earlier estimates. FY22 inflation forecast was lowered to 5.3% from earlier estimate of 5.7%.

 

The 10-year bond yield rose 5 basis points to hit an eighteen-month high after the Reserve Bank of India suspended its government securities acquisition programme.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 2.1% and 2.2% respectively.

 

TCS Q2 Dollar revenue growth at 2.9% and EBITDA margin at 25.6% missed estimate.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are up 1.6% and 1.8% respectively while Shanghai is up 0.2%. SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 17885, the top made Wednesday, followed by 17947, the top made the previous week, continued to be upside level to eye and that 17581-17557, the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, continued to be the support zone.

 

Nifty crossed 17885 hurdle and surged all the way to 17942 before closing at 17895.

 

17947, the top made on 24th September, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 18100 would be next upside levels to eye; A trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the hourly chart lands support around 17700.

 

For Banknifty, 38377, the top made on 27th September, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 39000 would be upside levels to eye. 37300 is the immediate support on the hourly chart.

 

RBI IN FOUCS

 

RBI IN FOUCS

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and Nasdaq climbed 1% each while S & P 500 gained 0.8% as lawmakers reached a deal to increase the debt ceiling into December. All three extended the winning streak to third consecutive day.

 

Weekly jobless claims totaled 326,000, below the 345,000 estimate and a drop from the previous week’s 364,000. Continuing claims declined by 97,000 to 2.71 million.

 

Markets are also awaiting September non-farm payroll report to be released today, which is expected to show an addition of 500,000 jobs, up from 235000 in August.

 

US 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.7 bps to 1.571%. Dollar index was little changed at 94.20. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,757.30 per ounce.

 

Brent futures rose 87 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $81.95 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 87 cents, or 1.1%, to reach $78.30 a barrel.

 

European markets climbed 1.2%-2.1%. German August industrial output fell by 4% month-on-month following an increase of 1.3% in July, a vastly worse showing than the expected 0.4% decline.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices gained eight tenth of a percent each, recouping 80% of yesterday's losses. Sensex settled at 59677, up 488 points while Nifty added 144 points to finish at 17790. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices surged 1.9% and 1.2% respectively with the former hitting fresh record intraday as well closing high while the later made a fresh record closing high. Except 0.5% lower Oil & Gas and 0.03% lower Telecom index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Realty and Consumer Durables indices leading the tally, up 6% and 5.8% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1764 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1195 cr and 2141 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1029 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 74.77/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up more than 2% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17885, the top made Wednesday followed by 17947, the top made last week, were the upside level to eye and that 17581-17557, the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, was the support zone.

 

Nifty surged to touch a high of 17857 before closing at 17790.

 

17885, the top made Wednesday, followed by 17947, the top made last week, continue to be upside level to eye.

 

17581-17557, the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, continues to be the support zone.

 

38107, 38377 are the upside levels for Banknifty; 37355-37300 is support zone.

 

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged for an eight straight meeting to support economic growth. The central bank however is expected to signal readiness to unwind some pandemic-era stimulus to tackle inflation concerns.

 

TCS will report its quarterly earnings today.

 

17581-17557 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE; 17885, 17947 ARE UPSIDE LEVELS

 

17581-17557 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE; 17885, 17947 ARE UPSIDE LEVELS

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After starting nearly a percent lower, US indices saw a sustained upward move through the session to end with gains of 0.3%-0.5% as concerns about a debt ceiling deal eased and private payroll data beat estimate.

 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell offered a short-term suspension of the U.S. debt ceiling to avert a national default and economic crisis.

 

Data from ADP showed private jobs rose by 568,000 for the month, better than the estimate of 425,000 and ahead of the downwardly revised 340,000 reading in August.

 

US 10-year treasury yield fell 1 basis points to 1.522%. Dollar index rose 0.3% to 94.228. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,760.78 per ounce.

 

Brent crude settled 1.8% lower at $81.08 per barrel while US crude closed 1.9% lower at $77.43 per barrel after U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels last week, against expectations for a dip of 418,000 barrels.

 

European markets fell 1.2%-1.5%. German industrial orders fell more sharply than expected in August as overseas demand weakened. Spanish industrial output rose 1.8% y-o-y in August, well below the 3.5% forecast.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising a third of a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices nosedived 1.3% from the top to end lower by nearly a percent. Sensex settled at 59190, down 555 points while Nifty lost 176 points to finish at 17646. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, snapping 5-day winning streak. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Metal and Healthcare indices leading the losses, down 3% and 1.7% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 803 cr, 244 cr and 1532 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 999 cr.

 

Rupee plunged 53 paise to 74.98/$, its lowest level after 19th April 2021.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Nikkei are up 2.3% and 1.5% respectively and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 130 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17947, the top made last week, was the next upside level to eye and that 17660 was the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17884, plunged to 17613 before closing at 17646. The benchmark is set to open near 17750 today.

 

17885, the top made yesterday followed by 17947, the top made last week, are the upside level to eye.

 

17581-17557, the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, is the support zone.

 

38107, 38377 are upside levels to eye for Banknifty; 37355-37300, the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, is the support zone.

 

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 17660

 

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 17660

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.9%-1.2%, rebounding from previous day's tech led sell-off.

 

ISM services PMI for September rose to 61.9 from 61.7 in August, 0.2 points better than expected.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 5 bps to 1.531%. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $1,758.27 per ounce. Dollar index rose 0.13% to 93.957.

 

Brent crude settled 1.6% higher at $82.56 per barrel to hit its highest in three years. WTI rose $1.31, or 1.7% to $78.93 per barrel to reach its best level after 2014.

 

European markets rose 0.9%-2%. Eurozone final IHS Markit composite PMI came in at 56.2 last month, compared to 59.0 in August. French industrial output climbed 1% m-o-m in August, outstripping forecast of 0.3%, and accelerating from the 0.5% growth seen in July. Italy's GDP grew by 17.2% y-o-y in second quarter, fractionally below the 17.3% previously reported.

 

AT HOME

 

After a negative start, benchmark indices saw a sustained northward move through the session to end higher by three fourth of a percent, extending the winning streak to second straight day. Sensex settled at 59745, up 445 points while Nifty added 131 points to finish at 17822. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.4% each, rising for the fifth straight day and hitting fresh record highs. BSE Oil & Gas and Energy indices soared 3.2% and 2.5% respectively, becoming the top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Healthcare indices were the top losers, down 1.6% and 0.4% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1915 cr, 580 cr and 699 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1868 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 13 paise to end at 74.44/$.

 

Rating Agency Moody's raised the outlook on India's sovereign rating to 'stable' from 'negative' in a revision after nearly two years.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down nearly a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17452, the low made last week, was the immediate support to eye while 17782 continued to be immediate hurdle.

 

Nifty surged to cross 17782 hurdle and touched a high of 17833 before closing at 17822.

 

17947, the top made last week, is the next upside level to eye.

 

17660 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

37900 is immediate hurdle for Banknifty, above which, 38377 would be next upside target; 37300 is immediate support.

 

17782 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17452 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

17782 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17452 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.9%-2.1%, with Nasdaq leading the losses as investors continued their rotation out of technology stocks amid rising bond yields.

 

Meanwhile lawmakers are still trying to agree to raise or suspend the U.S. borrowing limit and avert first-ever default on the national debt.

 

US 10-year treasury yield added about 2 bps to 1.488%. Dollar index fell 0.3% to 93.80. Spot rose 0.5% to $1,770 per ounce to rise for the third straight day.

 

Brent crude advanced $1.98, or 2.5%, to $81.26 per barrel and WTI gained $1.74, or 2.23%, to end the day at $77.62 per barrel after OPEC+ agreed to stick to an existing pact to hike oil output by 400,000 barrels per day in November.

 

European markets eased 0.2%-0.8%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices climbed 0.9% each, snapping 4-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 59299, up 533 points while Nifty added 159 points to finish at 17691. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices soared 1.6% each, with both hitting fresh record highs. Except 0.1% lower Metal index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended higher, with Metal index being the top gainer, up 2.7%, followed by 2.3% higher Realty and Power indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 860 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 737 cr and 11 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 228 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 20 paise to end at 74.31/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is down nearly 3%, Hang Seng is off 0.3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 120 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17326 the bottom made on 21st September continued to be immediate support while 17781 was is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17750, eased to end at 17691 and is set to open near 17600 today.

 

17452, the low made last week, is the immediate support to eye; 17782 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

 

36876, the low made last week, is the immediate support for Banknifty; 37900 continues to be immediate hurdle.

 

17781 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17326 NEXT SUPPORT

 

17781 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17326 NEXT SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices climbed 0.8%-1.4% on Friday on news of a new oral treatment for Covid-19, which boosted stocks tied to the economic reopening.

 

Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said they’ve developed a drug that reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by around 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases of Covid.

 

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred policy-guiding metric, was up 3.5% annually in August, slightly ahead of estimates. Personal income rose 0.2% in August, in line with expectations. ISM said its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 61.1 last month from 59.9 in August.

 

US 10-year treasury yield fell 6 bps to 1.467%. Dollar index slid 0.3% to 94.046. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,759.13 per ounce.

 

Brent crude rose 1% to $79.13 per barrel, while WTI advanced 0.9% to $75.71 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE and DAX fell 0.8% and 0.7% respectively while CAC was little changed. Euro zone inflation in September rose 3.4% y-o-y, the highest reading since September 2008 and up from 3% in August. German retail sales climbed 1.1% month-on-month in August, slightly below a forecast of 1.5%.

 

For the week, US indices fell 1.4%-3.2% with Nasdaq leading the losses. Dollar index climbed 0.85% for its largest percentage gain since late August. Brent crude rose 1.5% for its fourth weekly rise while WTI rose 2.4%, extending the winning streak to sixth consecutive week.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty fell 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, extending the losing streak to fourth straight day and closing at the lowest level after 20th September. Sensex settled at 58765, down 360 points while Nifty lost 86 points to finish at 17532. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices managed to end marginally in the green. BSE Realty and Telecom indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, down 1.7% and 1.3% respectively while Consumer Durables index rose 0.8%, becoming the top gainer, followed by 0.6% higher Healthcare and Metal indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 131 cr and 416 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 778 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 613 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to end at 74.11/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 2.1% and 1.8% respectively, snapping 5-week winning streak and suffering the biggest weekly cut in seven and five months respectively.

 

September GST collection stood at Rs. 1.17 lk cr. India's trade deficit surged to $22.94 bn in September as imports rose 85% to $56.38 bn while exports rose 21.4% to $33.4 bn.

 

Ashok Leyland September sales were up 14% y-o-y at 9533 units. Eicher reported 73% jump in VECV sales at 6070 units. Tata Motors sold 59156 units, a growth of 28%. TVS Motor sales rose 6% to 3.47 lk units. M & M tractor sales fell 7% to 40331 units.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 1.2% and 1.8% respectively while SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 17326, the low made the previous week, was the next downside level to eye and that 17782, the top made Wednesday, was the immediate hurdle.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 17452, rebounded to end at 17532.

 

17326 the bottom made on 21st September continues to be immediate support to eye; 17781, is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which, 17947, the top made last week, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

 

For Banknifty, 36876, the low made Friday, is the immediate support, below which 36525 and 36151, the bottoms made on 21st September and 7th September respectively, would be the subsequent downside levels to eye; 37900 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which, 38377, the top made during the week, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

 

STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 17782

 

STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 17782

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices tumbled 0.4%-1.6% as concerns over economic growth and a possible government shutdown saw Wall Street headed for a steep monthly drop.

 

The Senate and House both passed a short-term appropriations bill that would keep the government running through Dec. 3 and sent it to President Joe Biden to sign.

 

Fed Chair Powell warned again during a Congressional hearing yesterday that inflation pressures from the pandemic could last longer than previously expected, though he said he still believes they will be temporary. Treasury Secretary Yellen again called for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying the results would be “catastrophic” if legislators failed to Act.

 

U.S. initial jobless claims rose for a third straight week to 362,000 for the period ending Sept. 25, higher than the expected 335,000 figure. Meanwhile, U.S. economic growth accelerated to 6.7% in the second quarter.

 

US 10-year treasury yield slid 4 bps to 1.499%. Dollar index, after hitting a one-year high of 94.504, eased to end 0.1% lower at 94.287. Spot gold jumped 1.7% to $1,755.56 per ounce.

 

Brent crude rose 21 cents to $78.85 a barrel while U.S. oil rose 32 cents to $75.15 a barrel.

 

China’s official manufacturing PMI for September came in at 49.6, below expectations for a reading of 50.1.

 

European markets fell 0.3%-0.7%. The U.K. economy grew by 5.5% in the second quarter, outstripping a previous estimate of 4.8% GDP growth. French consumer spending rose by 1% in August from the previous month, after falling 2.4% in July and beating the forecast of a 0.1% rise. Eurozone unemployment dropped to 7.5% in August from 7.6% in July.

 

The S&P 500 finished the month down 4.8%, breaking a seven-month winning streak. The Dow and the Nasdaq fell 4.3% and 5.3%, respectively, suffering their worst months of the year.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices fell half a percent, extending the losing streak to third straight day. Sensex lost 287 points to settle at 59126 while Nifty finished at 17618, down 93 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.25% and 0.4% respectively.  BSE Realty and Consumer Durables indices rose 1.5% and 1% respectively, becoming the top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bankex and Metal indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.9% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 2226 cr, 2468 cr and 2283 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 97 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 8 paise to end at 74.23/$.

 

India's core sector output rose 11.6% in August vs 9.9% in July. April-June current account surplus stood at 0.9% of GDP Vs 3.7% y-o-y.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Markets in Hong Kong are closed today for a holiday, while those in mainland China are closed from today till October 7 for the Golden Week holiday. Nikkei is down nearly 2% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 175 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17800 continued to be the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart while 17576, the low made Tuesday, continued to be immediate support.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17742 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 17618 and is set to open below 17500 today.

 

17326, the low made last week, is the next downside level to eye.

 

17782, the top made Wednesday, is the immediate hurdle, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

36900, 36525 are the downside levels to eye for Banknifty; 37925-38050 is the immediate resistance zone.

 

September auto sales figures will be out today.