34-DMA LANDS SUPPORT AROUND 21650

 

34-DMA LANDS SUPPORT AROUND 21650

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices recovered from intraday lows to end modestly higher. S & P 500 hit 5000 mark for the first time and closed just below it.

 

Disney surged 11.5% after beating quarterly earnings estimates and raising its guidance. Chipmaker and designer Arm soared 48% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and providing an upbeat profit forecast.

 

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended Feb. 3, less than the 220,000 forecast.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 3 bps to 4.154%. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 104.14. Gold was flat at $2034 per ounce.

 

Oil rose for the fourth day in a row after the U.S. killed a militant commander in Iraq and Israel rejected a ceasefire proposal by Hamas. WTI futures rose 3.2% to settle at $76.22 a barrel and Brent gained 3.1% to trade at $81.63 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.4% while DAX and CAC gained 0.2% and 0.7% respectively.

 

China’s PPI fell 2.5% y-o-y in January, slightly better than expectations for a 2.6% decline. CPI fell 0.8%, more than the median estimate for a 0.5% decline. This was its fourth straight decline and its biggest drop since 2009.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices plunged 1% each for their worst day this month so far and closed at one-week low. Sensex settled at 71428, down 723 points while Nifty lost 212 points to finish at 21717. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.05% and 0.4% respectively. Nifty Private Bank and FMCG indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, down 2.6% and 2.1% respectively while PSU Bank and Media indices were the top gainers, up 2% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 4934 cr, 1205 cr and 6202 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 5512 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 1 paise to end at 82.96/$.

 

Monetary Policy Committee held repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and also maintained withdrawal of accommodation stance. RBI maintained FY24 CPI projection unchanged at 5.4% while pegged FY25 number at 4.5%. The apex bank projected FY25 real GDP growth to be 7%.

 

OUTLOOK

 

China, South Korea and Taiwan’s markets are shut today owing to Lunar New Year holiday, while Singapore and Hong Kong will see a half day of trading. Nikkei is up 0.3% today morning while Hang Seng is down 2%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 50 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's trade we had said that 22126, the top made last week, continued to be immediate hurdle, while 20 and 34-DMAs were placed around 21700 and 21630 respectively, making 21700-21630 important immediate support area.

 

Nifty plunged all the way to 21665 before closing at 21717.

 

34-DMA placed around 21650, is the important immediate support to eye, upon breach of which 21515 and 21350, the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels of the recent 21137-22126 upmove, would be next downside levels to eye; 22126 continues to be important immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 44429, the low made in January, is the next support; 45900 is immediate hurdle.

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22126 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 21700 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

22126  CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 21700 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices gained 0.4%-1% as the rally led by technology chugged along. Dow and S & P 500 hit fresh record highs.

 

Meta Platforms surged another 3% while Nvidia and Microsoft rose about 2% each to fresh record highs.

 

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that while inflation is easing the “job is not done yet,” while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expects only two to three cuts.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.12%. Dollar index fell 0.1% to 104.05. Gold was little changed at $2035 per ounce.

 

WTI and Brent crude futures rose 0.8% each to $73.86 a barrel and $79.21 a barrel respectively.

 

European markets fell 0.4%-1.2%. Germany's industrial production saw sharper than expected fall.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising nearly half a percent at the open, benchmark indices gave away all the gains through the session to end flat. Sensex settled at 72152, down 34 points while Nifty added 1 point to finish at 21930. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.7% each, both hitting fresh record highs. Except 1.2% and 0.1% lower IT and Private Bank indices, all the NSE sectoral indices ended higher with PSU Bank and Realty indices being the top gainers, up 2.9% and 1.8% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock future worth Rs 1691 cr, 1253 cr and 4145 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 328 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 9 paise to end at 82.97/$.

 

Tata Consumer's revenue and margin beat estimates but an exceptional loss led to profit miss. Powergrid's profit and margin beat estimates. The company also raised capex guidance to Rs. 10000 cr.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are up 1.2% and 0.7% respectively while Hang Seng is marginally in the red. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 50 points higher stance for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 22126, the top made last week, continued to be immediate hurdle while 21670-21620 was the important immediate support area.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 22053, slipped to end at 21930.

 

22126, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 22450-22500 would be next target area; 20 and 34-DMAs are placed around 21700 and 21630 respectively, making 21700-21630 important immediate support area.

 

For Banknifty, 46890, the top made last week, is the immediate hurdle while 45071, the low made last the week, is the next downside level to eye.

 

Apollo Hospitals and Grasim will report their quarterly earnings today.

 

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to leave interest rate and stance unchanged when it announces it's decision today.

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22126 CONTINUES TO BE UPSIDE LEVEL TO EYE

 

22126 CONTINUES TO BE UPSIDE LEVEL TO EYE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices gained 0.1%-0.4%.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 6 bps to 4.102%. Dollar index fell 0.3% to 104.14. Gold rose half a percent to $2035 per ounce.

 

WTI crude future rose 0.7% to settle at $73.31 a barrel. Brent future settled at $78.59 a barrel, up 60 0.8%.

 

European markets gained 0.5%-0.9%. Data showed German industrial orders unexpectedly jumped in December, while euro zone consumers have trimmed their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months.

 

China and Hong Kong stocks jumped as authorities took measures to arrest a recent sell-off in equities.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty rose 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, recouping more than what was lost yesterday and closed at the highest level after 16th January. Sensex settled at 72186, up 454 points while Nifty added 157 points to finish at 21929. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices surged 1.2% and 0.8% respectively. Nifty mid-cap index hit a record high in terms of intraday as well as closing basis while small-cap index made a record closing high. Nifty IT and Oil & Gas indices surged 2.9% and 2.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bank and FMCG indices were the top losers, down 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

 

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 93 cr and 568 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1892 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1096 cr.

 

Rupee ended unchanged at 83.06/$.

 

Britannnia's quarterly numbers were largely in-line with estimates with volume growth, at 5.5%, beating estimate.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 1.5% and 0.6% respectively while Nikkei is off 0.2%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 140 points gap-up start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 21650-21600 was the important immediate support area while 22126, the top made last week, continued to be immediate hurdle.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 21737, rebounded to end at 21929 and is set to open near 22050 today.

 

22126, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 22450-22500 would be next target area; 20 and 34-DMAs are placed around 21670 and 21620 respectively, making 21670-21620 important immediate support area.

 

For Banknifty, 34-DMA, placed around 46900, is the immediate hurdle while 45071, the low made last the week, is the next downside level to eye.

 

Tata Consumer and Nestle will report their quarterly earnings today.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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21650-21600 IS THE SUPPORT AREA; 22126 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

21650-21600 IS THE SUPPORT AREA; 22126 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices fell 0.2%-0.7% as Treasury yields spiked higher.

 

In an interview on Sunday, Fed Chair Powell said the central bank would likely move at a considerably slower pace on rate cuts than the market expects.

 

U.S. services sector expanded at a faster-than-expected clip in January and grew for 13th consecutive month.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield jumped 14 bps to 4.16%. Dollar index rose half a percent to 104.45. Gold fell 0.7% to $2025 per ounce.

 

WTI crude future rose 0.7% to settle at $72.78 a barrel and Brent future gained 0.8% to settle at $77.99 a barrel.

 

Main European markets ended marginally in the red. German exports fell more than expected in December due to weak global demand.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising half a percent, benchmark indices tumbled in late noon trade to end lower by nearly half a percent. Sensex settled at 71731, down 354 points while Nifty lost 82 points to finish at 21771. Nifty mid-cap index fell 0.1% while small-cap index rose 0.3%. Nifty Pharma and Healthcare indices rose 1.8% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durables and FMCG indices were the top losers, down 1.2% and 0.8% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 519 cr and 1308 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 524 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1189 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 14 paise to end at 83.06/$.

 

Bharti Airtel delivered a healthy third quarter. Revenue was in-line with estimate while margin was a beat. It added 3.3 mn subscribers in the quarter gone by.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 1.5% and 0.5% respectively while Nikkei is down half a percent. GIFT Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 22126, the record high made on Friday, which roughly coincided with the earlier top made in mid-January, was the immediate hurdle while 21625 was the immediate support.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 21964, slipped to end at 21771.

 

20 and 34-DMAs are placed around 21650 and 21600 respectively, making 21650-21600 important immediate support area; 22126, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 45615, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support, upon breach of which, 45071, the low made last the week, would be next downside level to eye; 34-DMA, placed around 47000, is the immediate hurdle.

 

Britannia will report its quarterly earnings today.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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22500 ABOVE 22126; 21625 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

22500 ABOVE 22126; 21625 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices gained 0.4%-1.7% on Friday as quarterly results from technology companies including Meta topped expectations and the January jobs report came in much better than expected.

 

Meta surged more than 20% after earnings topped estimates and company announced its maiden dividend and also authorized a $50 billion share buyback program. Amazon shares jumped 8% on a fourth-quarter earnings beat.

 

U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, well above the estimate of 185,000. Wages expanded by 4.5% y-o-y, more than a 4.1% forecast. Average hourly earnings increased 0.6%, double what economists expected and after rising 0.4% in December.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield surged 14 bps to 4.024%. Dollar index jumped 0.9% to 103.96, it's highest level in seven-week. Gold fell 0.7% to $2040 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures settled at $77.33 a barrel, shedding 1.7%. WTI crude futures fell 2% to $72.28 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.1%, CAC was little changed while DAX rose 0.4%.

 

For the week, Dow and S & P 500 gained 1.4% each while Nasdaq rose 1.1%, all extending the winning streak to fourth straight week. Both oil benchmarks lost roughly 7% on the week.

 

AT HOME

 

After climbing 2%, benchmark indices gave away two-third of the gains in noon plunge to end higher by around two-third of a percent. Sensex added 440 points to settle at 72085, up 440 points while Nifty, after hitting a record high of 22126, slipped to end at 21853, a gain of 156 points compared to previous close. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.4% and 0.9% respectively. Nifty Oil & Gas and Metal indices surged 3.6% and 2.4% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bank and Financial Services indices were the losers, down 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 71 cr, 597 cr and 7218 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2463 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 82.92/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 2% and 2.3% respectively, snapping a 2-week losing streak.

 

SBI's quarterly numbers missed estimate as deposit growth weakens in operationally weak quarter. Tata Motors delivered strong beat on estimates as JLR margins expand. The company also raised margin guidance for the JLR business for the second consecutive quarter.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.4% but Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.8% and 1.6% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting a modestly lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 21912 continued to be next upside target, upon crossover of which, 22124, the top made in January, would be next upside level to eye and that 21449 continued to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty crossed 21912 and surged all the way to 22126 from where it reversed to end at 21853.

 

22126, the record high made on Friday, which roughly coincided with the earlier top made in mid-January, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 22450-22500 would be next target area. On the way down, a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the hourly chart, lands support around 21625, upon breach of which, 21448, the low made on Wednesday, would be next downside level to eye. Meanwhile, trading longs can be held on to with the stop-loss of 21625.

 

For Banknifty, 34-DMA, placed around 47000, is the immediate hurdle, a decisive crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 47736, the 78.6% retracement level of the 48636-44429 fall, would be next upside level to eye. 45700 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, upon breach of which, 45071, the low made during the week, would be next downside level to eye.

 

Bharti Airtel will report its quarterly earnings today.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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21912 IS THE NEXT TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 21450

 

21912 IS THE NEXT TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 21450

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices surged 1%-1.3%, recovering from Wednesday's sell-off that happened after Fed signaled that a March rate cut is unlikely.

 

U.S. fourth quarter worker productivity grew faster than expected, while initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased in the latest week. ISM manufacturing index notched a reading of 49.1 in January, slightly above estimate of 47.2.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 3 bps to 3.882%. Dollar index fell 0.4% to 103.07. Gold rose 0.8% to $2055 per ounce.

 

WTI crude futures fell 2.7% to settle at $73.82 a barrel and Brent future fell 2.30% to $78.70 a barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.1%-0.9%. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged in a largely expected move. Eurozone headline inflation eased slightly in January while core figures declined less than expected and services inflation held steady.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended modestly lower after a relatively quiet interim budget session. Sensex settled at 71645, down 106 points while Nifty lost 28 points to finish at 21697. Nifty mid-cap index fell 0.6% while small-cap index rose 0.6%, hitting fresh record highs. Nifty PSU Bank index soared 3.1%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.5% higher Auto index. Media and Metal indices were the top losers, down 1.1% and 1% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 1880 cr and 2076 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 832 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 872 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 8 paise to end at 82.96/$.

 

Interim Budget presented by FM Nirmala Sitharaman pegged FY25 nominal GDP growth at 10.5% while projecting a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP as against revised FY24 target of 5.8%. Net and Gross market borrowings are expected to be Rs. 11.75 lk cr and Rs. 14.1 lk cr respectively. FY25 capex outlay has been increased by 11.1% to Rs. 11.1 lakh cr, which comes to 3.5% of GDP. Defense spend, v/s FY24 revised estimate, is little changed at Rs. 4.54 lh cr. Allocation for PM Awas Yojana has been increased by 49% to Rs. 80671 cr while Fertiliser subsidy has been cut by 13.2% to Rs. 1.64 lk cr. Food subsidy is down by 3.3% at Rs. 2.05 lk cr. Outlay for MGNAREGA is unchanged at Rs. 86000 cr. The budget did not propose any changes related to tax rates. The budget proposed to convert 40000 rail bogies to Vande Bharat standards and also expand electric vehicle ecosystem. Government also proposes to launch new housing scheme for middle class. 

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Nikkei are up 2% and 1.1% respectively while Shanghai is up 0.2%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 150 points gap-up start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 21912, the 78.6% retracement level of the recent fall from all-time high, continued to be next upside target while 21449, the low made Wednesday, was the immediate support.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 21832, eased to end at 21697. The benchmark is set to open above 21800 today.

 

21912, the 78.6% retracement level of the recent fall from all-time high, continues to be next upside target, upon crossover of which, 22124, the top made in January, would be next upside level to eye; 21449, the low made Wednesday, continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 46580, the top made last week, continues to be upside level to eye above which, 47812-48000, the gap created by gap-down opening on 17th January, would be next target zone; 45100 is immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

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ALL EYES ON INTERIM BUDGET

 

ALL EYES ON INTERIM BUDGET

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices tumbled 0.8%-2.2% after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a March rate cut is unlikely.

 

Powell said in a press conference that the Fed would need to see more favorable data to be sure it was time to lower rates.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 12 bps to 3.916%. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 103.51. Gold inched up 0.1% to $2039 per ounce.

 

WTI crude future fell 2.5% to settle at $75.85 a barrel and Brent future settled at $81.71 a barrel, down 1.40%.

 

Main European markets fell 0.3%-0.5%.

 

For the month, U.S. indices gained 1-1.6%. U.S. crude and the global benchmark Brent rose 5.86% and 6.06% in January for their first monthly gain since September.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices surged nine tenth of a percent each, nearly recouping all of yesterday's losses. Sensex settled at 71752, up 612 points while Nifty added 203 points to finish at 21725. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices soared 1.6% and 2.2% respectively, both hitting record highs and the latter posting best gain in 10 months. All the NSE sectoral indices ended higher, with Healthcare and Pharma indices being the top gainers, up 2.8% and 2.7% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1661 cr, 802 cr and 3736 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2543 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to end at 83.04/$.

 

For the month, Nifty was flat while Sensex fell 0.7%.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng is up 0.7% but Nikkei and Shanghai are down 0.8% each. GIFT Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 21500-21450 was the immediate support zone on the hourly chart while 21912, the 78.6% retracement level of the recent fall from all-time high, continued to be next upside target.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 21449, rebounded to end at 21725.

 

21912, the 78.6% retracement level of the recent fall from all-time high, continues to be next upside target, upon crossover of which, 22124, the top made in January, would be next upside level to eye; 21449, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support, upon breach of which, 21137, the low made last week, would be next downside level to eye.

 

For Banknifty, 46580, the top made last week, is the next upside level to eye above which, 47812-48000, the gap created by gap-down opening on 17th January, would be next target zone; 45100 is immediate support on the hourly chart, below which, 44430, the low made last week, would be next downside level to eye.

 

FM Sitharaman will present her sixth consecutive budget today.

 

Key expectations are that allocation to PM Kisan scheme will be hiked from Rs. 6000 to Rs. 9000. Rural Housing scheme may also get a boost. Focus on infrastructure is likely to continue with enhanced allocation for road, railway and defence. To boost manufacturing in India, tweaks in PLI schemes and tariff cuts might be done. Schemes for green energy transmission is also possible.

 

Fiscal deficit is widely expected to be pegged at 5.3% for FY25, down from 5.9% projected for current fiscal. Capex is expected to grow by nearly 10%. Nominal GDP growth is expected at 10.5%. Overall tax growth is expected at around 12%. Net market borrowing is seen at 12 lk cr.

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