FRESH CLOSING HIGH FOR NIFTY; CPI, IIP IN FOCUS TODAY

FRESH CLOSING HIGH FOR NIFTY; CPI, IIP IN FOCUS TODAY

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended marginally higher, with the Dow and S & P 500 scaling yet another record. Nasdaq closed at the highest level since March 2000.

Earlier in the day, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser expressed concern over low interest rates in the U.S., which he said are unprecedentedly low.

European markets, except a marginally lower Italy, gained between 0.2%-0.6%. In the, U.K. retail sales were flat in October y-o-y.

Dollar index, after touching a high of 88.06, eased to close at 87.59, the previous close being 87.78. Nymex crude rose 54 cents to $77.9 a barrel. Brent curde however fell 0.8% to $81.7 a barrel, the lowest since Oct 19, 2010. Gold gained $3 to $1163 an ounce.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by nearly a fifth of a percent after a choppy trading session, marking another record close. Sensex gained 35 points to settle at 27910 while Nifty finished at 8363, up 18 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.7% and 0.2% respectively. BSE Realty index and Bankex gained the most among the sectoral indices, rising 1% and 0.7% respectively while Consumer Durable and FMCG indices were the top losers, giving away 1.2% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 458 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 348 cr and 119 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 517 cr.

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at $61.55.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is up more than a percent, touching a fresh 7-year high after media reports suggested that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will postpone a planned tax increase and call a general election for December. Other Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher opening for our market.

Just to reiterate, we had turn our view bullish ever since Nifty broke the lower-top lower-bottom formation on 21st October by crossing 7928. Since then we have been advising holding on to long positions with a trailing stop loss. After Nifty crossed the 8130 hurdle, we have been working with the fresh target of 8520 and that continues to be the level to eye on the way up.

8290 continues to be the immediate support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

India's inflation based on CPI for October would be released today and is expected to ease to 5.63% from 6.46% in September. This would be the lowest level since the inception of the index in January 2012.

September industrial Production, as measured by IIP would also come out today and is expected to show a growth of 2%, up from 0.4% in August.

Tata Steel and BPCL will report their quarterly earnings today.

NIFTY CONSOLIDATES WITH A POSITIVE BIAS; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8290

NIFTY CONSOLIDATES WITH A POSITIVE BIAS; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8290

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained between 0.2%-0.4% yesterday, with the S & P 500 and Dow rising to record highs as investors tracked corporate results.

European markets gained between 0.6%-1.4%.

Dollar index, after touching a low of 87.22, rebounded to close at 87.78. Nymex crude dipped $1.2 to $77.4 a barrel and gold fell $10 to $1160 an ounce.  

AT HOME

It was yet another day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended little changed after a choppy trading session. Sensex gained 6 points to settle at 27875 while Nifty finished at 8344, up 7 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. BSE FMCG index soared 2.8%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1% rise in Consumer Durable index. Oil & Gas and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, giving away 1.3% and 1% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 355 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 89 cr and 393 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 315 cr.

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to close at 61.50/$.

RBI yesterday introduced a slew of changes in regulations for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), tightening rules in a phased manner over the next four years “to create a level-playing field that does not unduly favour or disfavour any institution." 

In an apparent U-turn, the CBI, which had earlier filed a closure report in a coal blocks case, yesterday told a special court there was enough evidence against Kumar Mangalam Birla and former Coal Secretary P.C. Parakh to take cognisance of offences.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains in the vicinity of half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher opening for our market.

Nifty has been in a consolidation mode for last four trading sessions. Yesterday, the benchmark made a fresh record high of 8383 before closing at 8344.

The bias on Nifty continues to be positive and "stay long with a trailing stop loss" continues to be the advice. Immediate support on the hourly chart has now moved up to 8290, which should serve as the new stop loss for trading longs.

8520 continues to be the major near term target.

NIFTY READY TO RESUME UPMOVE AFTER 3-DAY CONSOLIDATION; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8230

NIFTY READY TO RESUME UPMOVE AFTER 3-DAY CONSOLIDATION; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8230

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended little changed on Friday after data had the U.S. economy producing less-than-expected jobs in October and the unemployment rate declining to a six-year low.

Government's October non-farm payroll report showed addition of 214000 jobs, less than the 231000 anticipated and the jobless rate at 5.8%.

European markets, except a 0.2% higher FTSE, ended with cuts in the vicinity of a percent. Reports of Russian tanks crossing into eastern Ukraine weighed on the sentiment. Pessimism over economic growth and uncertainty surrounding further European monetary stimulus weighed on bank stocks.

After touching a high of 88.19, dollar index eased to 87.64. Nymex crude rose 0.9% to $78.6 a barrel; Gold jumped 2.4% to $1170 an ounce, halting a seven-day losing streak.

For the week, Dow gained 1.1%, S & P 500 rose 0.7% and Nasdaq was up 0.05%. In Europe, Italy and Spain were down more than 3%, France lost 1% and Germany eased 0.4%.

                                                             

AT HOME

It was yet another day of consolidation as benchmark indices, after falling nearly half a percent in the initial trade, recouped all the losses by the end to end little changed on Friday. Nifty ended at 8337, down 1 point while Sensex lost 47 points to settle at 27869. BSE mid-cap index gained 0.4% while the small-cap index lost 0.4%. BSE Realty and Healthcare indices climbed 2.4% and 2.3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Metal and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, down 1.3% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 2537 cr (which includes stake sell by Bain Capital in Hero Motocorp) and 332 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 535 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 192 cr. 

Rupee depreciated 21 paise to close at 61.61/$.

For the week, Sensex ended absolutely flat while Nifty gained 0.2%.

L & T reported 20.5% growth in standalone net profit at Rs 1042.2 cr in September quarter supported by other income. Revenue grew by 3.3% to Rs 12717 cr. Other income climbed 29.6% to Rs 603 cr. Operating profit rose 13% to Rs 1341 cr and margin expanded by 90 bps to 10.5%. The company reduced its consolidated revenue guidance for FY15 from 15% growth to 10%-15% but on order inflows, it maintained the guidance of 20% growth.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi added 21 more ministers to his government yesterday out of which four new cabinet ministers are Manohar Parrikar, Suresh Prabhu, JP Nadda and Choudhary Birender Singh who have been given defense, railways, health and rural development ministries respectively. Sadanand Gowda has been moved from railways to the law ministry.

OUTLOOK

China's October CPI has come in at 1.6% y-o-y, which is in-line with estimates. Prices stayed flat on a monthly basis, compared to a 0.1% gain forecast and after rising 0.5% in the previous month.

Today morning, except a 0.7% lower Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading with gains ranging from 0.5%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher opening for our market.

Ever since Nifty generated a fresh breakout on the daily chart on 30th October, we have been working with the target of 8520. That continues to be the next major level to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed at 8230, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8230

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8230

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained about four tenth of a percent, lifting Dow and S & P 500 to record, after upbeat economic reports in the U.S. and assurances from ECB President Mario Draghi that the ECB would adopt further easing measures, if needed.

US weekly jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 278,000, better than the expected 285,000. The four week average of the claims fell to the lowest since 2000. Another report had productivity rising more than estimated in the third quarter.

Speaking at a news conference after the ECB held its key interest rate at record lows, Draghi assured that ECB officials were unanimous in the view that they would take additional steps if warranted.

European markets ended mixed. German industrial orders came in weaker than expected, substantiating fears that the euro zone's biggest economy is struggling.

Dollar index surged to 88.07 from 87.47. Nymex crude fell 77 cents to $77.9 a barrel and gold eased $3.1 to $1142.6 an ounce.

AT HOME

It turned out to be yet another day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended modestly higher after a rangebound trading session. Sensex gained 55 points to settle at 27916 while Nifty finished at 8338, up 14 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. BSE Bankex climbed 1.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1% rise in Healthcare index. Metal index plunged 3%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.9% cut in Power index.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1031 cr and 722 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 836 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1205 cr.

Rupee ended at 61.41/$, the previous close being 61.40/$.

India's HSBC Services PMI fell to a six-month low of 50 in October from 51.6 in September.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is at 8400, suggesting about 20 points higher opening for our market when compared with Wednesday's close.

We have been working with the target of 8520 ever since Nifty broke out of a trendline resistance on the daily chart placed around 8130. That continues to be next major target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8230, with the stop loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

LT will report its quarterly earnings today.

Also on focus would be US October non-farm payroll data which is expected to show an addition of 235000 jobs and unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.9%.

BRENT CRUDE HITS 4-YEAR LOW; NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 8520 TARGET

BRENT CRUDE HITS 4-YEAR LOW; NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 8520 TARGET

WORLD MARKETS

While Dow ended marginally higher, S & P 500 and Nasdaq lost about three tenth of a percent amid concerns over falling oil prices and world economic growth. Mood was also cautious on account of midterm elections.

In congressional elections being held across the nation, Republicans were expected to increase their numbers in the House and Senate, although whether the GOP garners enough seats to take control of the latter body was viewed as too close to call.

Brent crude fell to a multi-year low after Saudi Arabia lowered the price of oil exported to the United States, while increasing the cost to Asia and Europe.

US factory orders fell 0.6% in September v/s expectations of a 0.5% dip. Trade gap expanded in September to $43 bn as exports slowed from a record, illustrating the impact of softer global growth on the U.S. economy.

The European Commission reduced its estimates for euro-zone growth, projecting the 18-nation region's GDP would climb by 0.8% in 2014 and 1.1% next year, a decline from estimates of 1.2% and 1.7%.

European markets plunged between 0.5%-2.2%.

Nymex crude fell $1.6 to $77.2 a barrel; Gold eased 0.2% to $1168 an ounce. 

AT HOME

After a heady runup of previous four sessions, benchmark indices started new week and month on a quiet note by ending little changed after trading in a narrow range through the session on Monday. Sensex settled at 27860, down 5 points while Nifty finished at 8324, up 2 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 1.1% and 1.3% respectively. BSE Realty index soared 3.6%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.5% rise in Bankex. Consumer Durable and Auto indices lost 1.5% and 0.9% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1413 cr and 164 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 846 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1180 cr.

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at 61.40/$.

India's HSBC manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in October from 51 in September.

OUTLOOK

China's HSBC Services PMI for October has come in at 52.9, down from 53.5 in September.

Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is trading at 8385, suggesting about 25 points higher opening compared to Monday's close.

In Friday's report we had mentioned that Nifty had generated a fresh breakout on the daily chart by closing above the trendline resistance placed around 8115, which projects a target of about 8520.

8520 continues to be the next major target to eye. 8180-8160, the erstwhile resistance zone, would now act as the immediate support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

AFTER ACHIEVING 8300 TARGET, NIFTY HEADED FOR 8520; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8060

AFTER ACHIEVING 8300 TARGET, NIFTY HEADED FOR 8520; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8060

WORLD MARKETS

US indices surged 1.1%-1.4% on Friday, lifting the Dow industrials and S&P 500 to record close, after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its yearly target for monetary expansion to 80 trillion yen 70 trillion yen, increasing hopes for the global economy.

Economic data had U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly falling in September, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the Chicago region hitting 66.2 in October, better than the estimated 60.0, and consumer sentiment rising to 86.9 in October versus an expected 86.4.

European markets climbed between 1.3%-3.1%. Bank of England announced plans that could mean lenders have to hold more capital to guard again shocks. The rules proved less strict than anticipated, which boosted U.K. banks in particular.

Euro zone inflation ticked up slightly in October, with consumer prices gaining 0.4%. The figure met expectations and marked a slight rise from September's 0.3% gain. However, it remained well below the European Central Bank's target of around 2%.

Dollar index surged to 86.91, marking the highest level since July 2010. Gold tumbled 2.4% to $1273 an ounce. Nymex crude fell 0.4% to $85.9/barrel.

For the week, US indices gained between 2.7%-3.5% and European markets were up between 1.3%-3.8%.

For the month, Dow gained 2%, Nasdaq rose 3.1% and S & P 500 was up 2.3%. European markets however closed lower on the month.

Data on Saturday showed that China’s official PMI fell to a five-month low of 50.8 in October from September’s 51.1.

                                                             

AT HOME

It was a fabulous end to the week and month as benchmark indices surged nearly 2% on Friday, registering the largest gain since 12th May and closing at fresh record high. Sensex soared 520 points to settle at 27866 while Nifty finished at 8322, up 153 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.2% and 1% respectively. Except a 3.2% cut in BSE Consumer Durable index, all other sectoral indices ended in green with Capital Goods and Oil & Gas indices leading the tally, rising 2.7% and 2.2% respectively. BSE advance-decline ratio stood at 1.5:1.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1755 cr, 1485 cr and 322 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 276 cr.

Rupee appreciated 9 paise to close at 61.36/$.

M & M reported 4.3% dip in September quarter net profit at Rs 947 cr, impacted by weak operational performance. Total income grew better-than-expected 6.9% to Rs 9544 cr. Operating profit however dropped 11.8% to Rs 1009 cr and margin fell 220 bps to 10.6%.

ITC matched street expectations on profit front but topline and operational performance disappointed. Net profit rose 8.7% to Rs 2425 cr. Net Sales grew 14.8% to Rs 8930 cr. Operating margin fell 170 bps to 38%.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 3.8% each.

India's core sector, comprising of eight key industries, grew by 1.9% in September. In August the growth stood at 5.8%.

Oil marketing companies cut Petrol and Diesel price by Rs 2.4/litre and Rs 2.25/litre.

October auto sales were weak. Maruti reported 1.1% dip at 1.04 lac units; M & M sales were down 15.4% at 42776 units. Those of Tata Motors fell 17% to 42819 unit and for Hero Moto, figure stood at 5.75 lac units, down 8.5%. On the brighter side TVS Motor reported 22% rise at 2.4 lac units.

OUTLOOK

China's October final HSBC manufacturing PMI has come in at 50.4, up from September's reading of 50.2 but in-line with the flash estimate.

Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points higher opening for our market.

In Friday's report we had mentioned that "Nifty has given a fresh breakout on the daily chart after a consolidation of nearly a month and half, which suggests much higher levels in the days to come". We had also given immediate target of 8260-8300.

Nifty surged 153 points to end at 8322, achieving this target on Friday itself and vindicating our view.

The breakout mentioned above projects a target of about 8520. On the way down, 8180-8160, the erstwhile resistance zone, would now act as support, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

NIFTY HITS RECORD HIGH; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8050

NIFTY HITS RECORD HIGH; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8050

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained between 0.4%-1.3% yesterday after data showed the U.S. economy grew more than expected last quarter.

US third-quarter GDP rose 3.5%, beating expectations. Another report had the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rising last week, but the four-week average fell, illustrating ongoing improvement in the labor market.

European markets gained between 0.2%-0.7%. The banking sector underperformed, with shares in Greek and Italian banks still struggling following the results of the European Central Bank's stress tests.

Germany's unemployment rate held steady at 6.7% in October, and joblessness fell more than expected. However, inflation data for the country came in slightly lower than forecast.

Dollar index, after rising to 86.49, settled at 86.15. Gold plunged 2.2% to $1199 an ounce; Nymex crude fell 1.3% to $81.1 a barrel.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, benchmark indices saw a sustained upward move through the session to end higher by nearly a percent, hitting record highs and extending the winning streak to third straight day. Sensex surged 248 points to settle at 27346, marking a fresh closing high. Nifty gained 79 points to close at 8169, just 4 points short of highest closing registered on 8th September. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Realty and IT indices leading the tally, putting on 3.4% and 2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1257 cr, 1286 cr and 531 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 94 cr.

Rupee depreciated 10 paise to close at 61.45/$.

Maruti reported better-than-estimated 28.8% growth in September quarter net profit at Rs 863 cr. Revenues rose 17.5% to Rs 12304 cr. Operating profit jumped 15% to Rs 1521 cr but margin declined 20 bps to 12.4% which were slightly lower than estimates.

ICICI Bank met street expectations on profit and net interest income front but its asset quality and provisions hit in the quarter ended September 2014. Net profit rose 15.2% y-o-y to Rs 2709. NII too grew 15.2% to Rs 4657 cr. Gross NPA rose 7 bps sequentially to 3.12% and Net NPAs climbed 9 bps to 0.96%.

Bharti Airtel reported better-than-expected 24.8% q-o-q rise in September quarter net profit at Rs 1382 cr. Revenue declined 0.5% to Rs 22845 cr, which was in-line with estimates. Operating profit declined 0.3% to Rs 7705 cr but margin expanded to 33.7% from 33.62%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains ranging from 0.5%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points higher opening for our market.

We have been bullish on Nifty ever since it crossed 7928 on 21st October, which broke the lower-top lower-bottom formation on the daily chart. Nifty has seen strong upmove since then and yesterday touched a fresh all-time high of 8181, achieving the upside targets given by us and vindicating our view.

The momentum continues to be positive and more importantly Nifty has given a fresh breakout on the daily chart after a consolidation of nearly a month and half, which suggests much higher levels in the days to come.

"Stay long with a trailing stop loss" continues to be the advice. 8260-8300 is the next target area on the way up. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8050, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

ITC, M & M and NMDC will report their quarterly earnings today.