DOW, S & P 500 AT RECORD HIGH; NIFTY SCALES 11-MONTH HIGH

DOW, S & P 500 AT RECORD HIGH; NIFTY SCALES 11-MONTH HIGH

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.7% yesterday with Dow Jones industrial average closing at a new all-time high and the S&P 500 moving higher in record territory as fears eased over Brexit and Japan signaled more economic stimulus.

In UK, interior Minister Theresa May is set to become new Prime Minister on Wednesday, ending the leadership uncertainty. In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ordered new stimulus after his coalition won an election in Japan's upper chamber by a landslide.

Unofficially starting the earnings season, Alcoa beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines Monday after the close.

US oil rose 4.6% to $46.80 a barrel. Gold fell $21 to $1335 an ounce.

Iron ore prices rose more than 6% to $58.80 a tonne.

European markets, except a flat FTSE, gained 1.3%-2.8%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices climbed nearly two third of a percent yesterday, extending Monday's big upmove and closing at fresh 11-month high. Sensex added 181 points to settle at 27808 while Nifty finished at 8521, up 53 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Metal and Realty indices soared 2.9% and 2% respectively, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices while FMCG and Healthcare indices fell half a percent each, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 213 cr and 1149 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 90 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 19 cr.

Rupee depreciated 6 paise to end at 67.18/$.

IIP for May came in better-than-expected at 1.2% as against a decline of 0.8% in April. The figure is best since February 2016. Out of last six months, four months have seen a contraction. CPI for June remained unchanged from previous month's level at 5.77%. Core CPI however eased to 4.5% from 4.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is again surging with gain of a percent and half, other Asian markets are up between 0.5%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we have been working with the target of 8655 ever since 8243, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 9119-6826 fall was taken out on weekly basis on 1st July. The benchmark closed at 8521 yesterday and is set to open further higher today, moving towards the 8655 target mentioned above.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8400, which should serve as the new stop loss for long positions.

NIFTY MARCHES TOWARDS 8655 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8370

NIFTY MARCHES TOWARDS 8655 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8370

WORLD MARKETS                             

Extending Friday’s rally on the back of positive jobs report and cheering an election in Japan, US indices gained 0.3%-0.6% yesterday with S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high and also posting a new all-time intraday high of 2,143.16.

Earlier, Nikkei climbed 4% after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition won election in upper house, which is likely to make it easier for Abe to push through economic reforms. Hang Seng gained 1.5% while Shanghai rose 0.2%.

US oil fell 1.4% to $44.76 a barrel,  touching two-month lows on oversupply fears after lesser-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories data released last week and rising U.S. oil drilling rig counts. Brent fell 1.1% to $46.25.

European markets climbed 1.2%-2.1%. British pound briefly spiked after U.K. lawmaker Andrea Leadsom pulled out of the race to become the country's prime minister, clearing the way for Interior Minister Theresa May. The best-performing sector was basic resources stocks, closing 4 percent higher, as metal prices rose.

AT HOME

After a mini vacation, bulls were back to work as benchmark indices soared little less than 2% yesterday to close at the highest level since 19th August 2015. Sensex climbed 500 points to settle at 27627 while Nifty finished at 8468, up 145 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices added 1.5% and 0.8% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Metal and Finance indices leading the tally, up 2.5% and 2.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1056 cr and 1126 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 549 cr. DIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 611 cr.

Rupee appreciated 24 paise to close at 67.12/$.

Indusind Bank reported in-line with estimated 26% growth in April-June quarter profit at Rs 661 cr. NII jumped 38% to Rs 1356 cr and was better-than-expected. Net Interest Margin improved to 3.97% from 3.68% y-o-y. Asset quality slightly weakened as gross NPA increased to 0.94% from 0.87% q-o-q and net NPA rose to 0.38% from 0.36%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up more than 3%, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points higher start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with the major upside target of 8655 ever since 8243, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 9119-6826 fall, was taken out on weekly basis on 1st July.

Nifty yesterday soared 145 points to 8468 and a positive start today is likely to take it to 8500 mark.

8655 continues to be next major target and hold long positions with a trailing stop loss continues to be the advise.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8370, which should serve as the revised stop loss.

May IIP and June CPI data will be released today. June CPI is expected at 5.75% as against 5.76% in May. Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. May IIP is expected to contract by 0.12% as against contraction of 0.8% in April.

NIFTY MARCHES TOWARDS 8655 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8670

NIFTY MARCHES TOWARDS 8655 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8370

WORLD MARKETS                             

Extending Friday’s rally on the back of positive jobs report and cheering an election in Japan, US indices gained 0.3%-0.6% yesterday with S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high and also posting a new all-time intraday high of 2,143.16.

Earlier, Nikkei climbed 4% after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition won election in upper house, which is likely to make it easier for Abe to push through economic reforms. Hang Seng gained 1.5% while Shanghai rose 0.2%.

US oil fell 1.4% to $44.76 a barrel,  touching two-month lows on oversupply fears after lesser-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories data released last week and rising U.S. oil drilling rig counts. Brent fell 1.1% to $46.25.

European markets climbed 1.2%-2.1%. British pound briefly spiked after U.K. lawmaker Andrea Leadsom pulled out of the race to become the country's prime minister, clearing the way for Interior Minister Theresa May. The best-performing sector was basic resources stocks, closing 4 percent higher, as metal prices rose.

AT HOME

After a mini vacation, bulls were back to work as benchmark indices soared little less than 2% yesterday to close at the highest level since 19th August 2015. Sensex climbed 500 points to settle at 27627 while Nifty finished at 8468, up 145 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices added 1.5% and 0.8% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Metal and Finance indices leading the tally, up 2.5% and 2.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1056 cr and 1126 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 549 cr. DIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 611 cr.

Rupee appreciated 24 paise to close at 67.12/$.

Indusind Bank reported in-line with estimated 26% growth in April-June quarter profit at Rs 661 cr. NII jumped 38% to Rs 1356 cr and was better-than-expected. Net Interest Margin improved to 3.97% from 3.68% y-o-y. Asset quality slightly weakened as gross NPA increased to 0.94% from 0.87% q-o-q and net NPA rose to 0.38% from 0.36%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up more than 3%, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points higher start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with the major upside target of 8655 ever since 8243, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 9119-6826 fall, was taken out on weekly basis on 1st July.

Nifty yesterday soared 145 points to 8468 and a positive start today is likely to take it to 8500 mark.

8655 continues to be next major target and hold long positions with a trailing stop loss continues to be the advise.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8370, which should serve as the revised stop loss.

May IIP and June CPI data will be released today. June CPI is expected at 5.75% as against 5.76% in May. Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. May IIP is expected to contract by 0.12% as against contraction of 0.8% in April.

NIFTY SET TO SURGE AFTER CONSOLIDATION; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8287

NIFTY SET TO SURGE AFTER CONSOLIDATION; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8287

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices soared 1.4%-1.6% on Friday more than recovering their post-Brexit losses, after a surprisingly large beat on the June jobs report headline figure. The S&P 500 ended within 1 point of its record close of 2,130.82 hit last May.

Data showed US economy added 287,000 jobs last month, much better than the 175,000 expected. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.9%, versus the 4.8% estimate. Average hourly wages rose 0.1% in June for a year-over-year increase of 2.6%. May's payroll count was revised down to only an 11,000 increase from the previously reported 38,000

US oil rose 27 cents or 0.6% to $45.41 a barrel. Gold fell $4 to $1358 an ounce.

European markets climbed 0.9%-4.1% with Italy leading the tally. Auto was one of the top performing sector as data from the China Passenger Car Association revealed that vehicle sales in China rose 19.4% last month, compared to June 2015.

For the week, US indices gained between 1.1%-1.9%, extending the upmove to second consecutive week. In Europe, FTSE gained 0.2% but DAX and CAC lost 1.5% and 1.9% respectively. Among Asian markets, Nikkei plunged 3.7%, Hang Seng lost 1.1% but Shanghai gained 1.9%. Oil plunged 7.3% for its worst decline since Feb. 5.

AT HOME

It was yet another day of consolidation as benchmark indices, after falling more than half a percent in the initial trade, recouped more than half of the losses through the session to end lower by about a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 27127, down 75 points while Nifty lost 15 points to finish at 8323. BSE mid-cap index managed to gain 0.1% while the small-cap index lost 0.2%. BSE Telecom index tumbled 2.2%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1% each cut in Capital Goods and Oil & Gas indices. Auto and Healthcare indices were the top gainers, up 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 331 cr and 282 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 222 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 282 cr.

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to end at 67.36/$.

For the week, Sensex Nifty ended flat.

Telecom stocks fell on concerns that DoT (Department of Telecom) will soon issue demand notice of over Rs 12,500 crore to six telecom operators amid allegations of under-reporting of revenue to the tune of Rs 45,000 crore.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei is surging with more than 3% gains, other Asian markets are up between 0.5%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 90 points higher start for our market.

In Friday's report we had mentioned that "After six consecutive up days, Nifty has been in a consolidation mode over last two days which should be considered healthy. 8240 continues to be the immediate support on the hourly chart with the stop loss of which trading longs can be held on to."

A big gap up opening would vindicate this view.

As we have been mentioning, 8655, the top made last July, continues to be major upside target to eye. After today's gap up opening, immediate support would have shifted to 8287, which should now serve as the stop loss for trading longs.

Indusind will report its quarterly earnings today.

NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION; US JOBS DATA IN FOCUS

NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION; US JOBS DATA IN FOCUS

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.1% each while Nasdaq gained 0.4% yesterday amidst sharp decline in oil and awaiting Friday's non-farm payroll data.

US oil fell $2.29 or 4.8% to $45.14 after the EIA said weekly crude inventories declined 2.2 million barrels, far less than the 6.7 million barrel draw down the American Petroleum Institute reported late Wednesday.

A report from ADP and Moody's showed private sector jobs rose by 172,000 in June, versus consensus expectations of 159,000. Initial jobless claims came in at 254,000 for the week of July 2.

Dollar index rose 0.2%. Pound was near $1.291 after hitting a 31-year low of $1.2796 on Wednesday. Gold fell 0.4% to $1262 an ounce.

European markets gained upto a percent.

AT HOME

It was a day of consolidation as benchmark indices, after trading in a narrow range for better part of the day, saw a choppy last hour and half but ended little changed. Sensex settled at 27201, up 35 points while Nifty added 2 points to finish at 8338. BSE mid-cap index lost 0.4% while small-cap index rose 0.04%. BSE Healthcare and FMCG indices climbed 1.1% and 0.9% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices tumbled 1.6% respectively, becoming top losers.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 300 cr, 224 cr and 479 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 160 cr.

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to end at 67.39/$.

Lupin soared 7.8% after the company received an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the US drug regulator which states that the inspection conducted in July 2015 at Lupin’s Goa facility has been closed.

Tata Steel nosedived 5% on reports that the sale of company's UK business might be kept on hold to look at all the choices including pension liability. Sale of Port Talbot asset might also be put on hold.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a 0.3% higher Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points lower start for our market.

After six consecutive up days, Nifty has been in a consolidation mode over last two days which should be considered healthy. 8240 continues to be the immediate support on the hourly chart with the stop loss of which trading longs can be held on to.

8655, the top made last July, which is also the 52-week high, continues to be the major upside target to eye as we have been mentioning.

Key data to watch out today would be the US June non-farm payroll where markets would be watching for signs that May's disappointing headline figure of 38000 was an exception. The figure this time expected is 175000.

8240 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 8655 MAJOR TARGET

8240 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 8655 MAJOR TARGET

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.4%-0.8% yesterday helped by rising oil prices, positive services sector data and the release of dovish Federal Reserve minutes.

Minutes showed that policymakers thought it was prudent to wait for more data and the Brexit vote result before raising rates, and cited a slowdown in hiring as a reason to keep rates unchanged last month.

US economic data showed  ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 56.5 for June versus 52.9 in May, the fastest pace in seven months. The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in May to $41.1 billion from $37.4 billion the prior month.

US oil rose 83 cents or 1.8% to $47.43 a barrel after falling more than 4.5% on Tuesday.

Global bond yields hit new record lows yesterday. The German 10-year bund fell to negative 0.204%, while the UK 10-year gilt dropped to 0.724%. Italy, Japan, and Switzerland's government bond yields also hit new bottoms; Japan's yield curve turned almost entirely negative, with the exception of the 30-year note, yielding about 0.045%. US 10-year Treasury yield came off its record low of 1.321% to trade near 1.38%. The safe haven buying was triggered by poor U.S. factory orders data from Tuesday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's Monday remarks suggesting China may not maintain its 6.7% growth rate, and renewed fears over the fallout from the Brexit vote.

European markets fell 1.2%-2.3% amid continued political and economic uncertainty in the European Union (EU) following the Brexit vote. the British pound dropped to $1.2796, a fresh 31-year low.

Gold gained $8 to $1367 an ounce.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended lower by four tenth of a percent on Tuesday, breaking the six-day winning streak. Sensex lost 112 points to settle at 27167 while Nifty ended at 8336, down 35 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.1% each. BSE Utilities and Auto indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, down 1.1% each. Metal and Capital Goods indices gained 0.4% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 266 cr and 129 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 345 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 447 cr.

Rupee depreciated 19 paise to end at 67.46/$.

India's services PMI fell to a seven-month low of 50.3 in June from 51 in May. The composite PMI edged up to 51.1 from 50.9.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi inducted 19 new faces in his Council of Ministers on Tuesday, including several dalit and OBC leaders. Minister for human resources, Smriti Irani, has been moved the textiles ministry. Prakash Javadekar took on Irani's former portfolio. The minister of state for finance, Jayant Sinha, was shifted to civil aviation. Venkaiah Naidu took on charge of information and broadcasting ministry from Arun Jaitely. Piyush Goyal has been given an additional charge of mines ministry. Ravishankar Prasad has been made Law Minister.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are down modestly but other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto a percent with Hang Seng on the top. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

We have been working with major target of 8655 ever since 8243-8295 hurdle was taken out and have been advising holding on to trading longs with a trailing stop loss. That continues to be the view.

8240 continues to be the immediate support, which should serve as that stop loss.

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8240

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 8240

WORLD MARKETS                             

US markets were shut yesterday for Independence Day Holiday.

European markets fell 0.7%-1.7% with Italy leading the losses on renewed Brexit concerns.

Nigel Farage, leader of the U.K. Independence party, announced he was standing down, saying his "political ambition" had been achieved when the U.K. voted to leave the EU. His departure came after another key Brexit campaigner, Boris Johnson, ruled himself out of the running to become the U.K.'s next prime minister.

Uncertainty over Britain's future, following the Brexit vote, saw Markit's construction PMI for the U.K. drop to 46.0 in June, the lowest level in seven years.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde, in a media interaction, said that exiting the EU could cut Britain's gross domestic product by between 1.5% and 4.5% points by 2019. And ratings agency S&P said both the euro zone and the U.K.'s economic growth would take a knock as a result of the vote.

AT HOME

After a gap up opening, benchmark indices traded in a narrow range through the session and finally ended higher by half a percent, extending the upmove to sixth straight day. Sensex added 134 points to settle at 27279 while Nifty finished at 8371, up 42 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 1% respectively. Except a 1.3% cut in FMCG index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Realty index topping the tally with gain of 2.2%, followed by 1.7% higher Energy and Metal indices.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 182 cr, 76 cr and 503 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 377 cr.

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 67.27/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that having crossed 8295 decisively, next major target for Nifty is 8655, which is the top made last July as well as the 52-week high.

The benchmark touched a high of 8398 yesterday before closing at 8371, moving towards the 8655 target mentioned above.

Stay long with the trailing stop loss continues to be the advise. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8240, which should serve as that stop loss.

Union Cabinet is set for a reshuffle today and is likely to see inclusions from Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Assam.

Indian markets will remain shut tomorrow for Id-Ul-Fitr.