9160 LANDS SUPPORT AGAIN

9160 LANDS SUPPORT AGAIN

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.3%-0.5% amidst rising geopolitical tensions and Trump's comment on dollar.

Dollar index fell half a percent to 100.23 after Trump told the Wall Street Journal he thought the currency was getting "too strong." The 2-year yield fell to around 1.21%, while the 10-year yield fell below the psychologically key 2.30% level. Gold gained $4 to $1276 an ounce.

In another media interaction, Trump said he wants to tackle health care reform before implementing new tax policy.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Moscow on yesterday and received a barrage of criticism from several Russian officials.

WTI crude settled half a percent lower at $53.11 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.17 million barrels.

European markets, except a 0.1% higher DAX, fell upto half a percent.

AT HOME

After falling about eight tenth of a percent in first hour or so, benchmark indices recouped nearly half of the losses through choppy session to end lower by about four tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 29643, down 145 points while Nifty finished at 9203, down 34 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Utilities and Consumer Durable indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, down 1.2% and 1% respectively while Realty and Healthcare indices gained 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 581 cr, 435 cr and 105 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 701 cr.

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 64.7750/$.

Budget Session of the Parliament ended today with Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha passing 23 and 18 bills respectively.

India’s industrial output contracted -1.2% in February from 2.7% in January and 2% in February last year, dashing hopes amidst faltering economic activity. January IIP however was revised upwards.

Retail inflation rate rose to 3.81% in March from February's 3.65%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei, owing to stronger Yen, is down more than a percent. Other Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 point lower start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, over past couple of days, we have been saying that 9160 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which trading longs can be held on to.

Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a low of 9162, rebounded to close at 9203 but is again set to open around 9160 today.

9160, where 20-DMA as well as a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on daily chart is placed, continues to be immediate support to eye. Below 9160, 34-DMA, placed around 9070, would be the important support to eye.

9274, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle.

Infosys will kickstart January-March quarter earning season today. The company is expected to report a 1.3% q-o-q dollar revenue growth at USD 2584 mn. Rupee revenue is likely to fall 0.2% to Rs 17235 cr and profit might dip 3.7% to Rs 3570 cr. Operating margin is seen down 30 bps at 24.8%.

More important will be FY18 guidance where constant currency revenue growth of 7-9% is expected. Any revision to current margin guidance of 24-26% will also be watched. Commentary on buyback will also be in focus.

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 9160 SUPPORT

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 9160 SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices recovered from the morning session lows to end with cuts of upto 0.24% amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

North Korean said it was watching every move made by "enemy elements" and that its "nuclear sight (was) focused on the U.S. invasionary bases."

The development takes place as a U.S. aircraft carrier group makes its way toward the western Pacific following multiple missile launches from North Korea earlier in this year.

U.S. President Trump tweeted that "North Korea is looking for trouble," adding that the U.S. would solve the problem with or without the help of China.

Recovery happened after President Donald Trump told a group of executives that his administration was looking to revamp Dodd-Frank, which might be eliminated and replaced with "something else

Safe haven Gold jumped $20 to $1274 per ounce, it's highest since November 2016, while the benchmark 10-year note yield slipped to 2.30%. Dollar index fell to 100.71 from 101.

Oil ended marginally higher after data from American Petroleum Institute showed that crude inventories had fallen by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending April 7, compared to the 87,000 barrel increase expected.

European markets, except a 0.2% higher FTSE, lost upto half a percent. U.K. inflation stood at 2.3% in March and maintained a four-year high as seen in February. Germany's ZEW monthly survey showed economic sentiment surged up from 12.8 points to 19.5, its highest level since August 2015.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices gained about two third of a percent to break three-day losing streak. Sensex added 212 points to settle at 29788 while Nifty finished at 9237, up 56 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.4% and 1% respectively. Except a 1.6% and 0.3% cut in Metal and Basic Material indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with FMCG and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 1.6% and 1.5% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 751 cr and 166 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 605 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 827 cr.

Rupee depreciated 8 paise to end at 64.63/$.

The Lok Sabha yesterday passed Motor Vehicle Act 2016.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is down more than a percent, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto 0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points lower start for our market.

As readers would recall, 9180-9160 is the immediate support zone, with the stop-loss of which we have been advising holding on to trading longs. Yesterday, the benchmark, after touching a low of 9173, rebounded to end at 9237 but is slated to open around 9200 today.

9160, where 20-DMA as well a trendline adjoining two recent bottoms on daily chart is placed, continues to be immediate support to eye.

                                         

9274, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle, above which 9400 would be the next target to eye.

IIP for February will be released today and is expected to show a growth of 1.8%, down from previous month’s 2.7%. CPI for March is expected at 3.97%, up from February’s 3.65%.

NIFTY TESTS 9180-9160 SUPPORT; 9274 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY TESTS 9180-9160 SUPPORT; 9274 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended marginally higher as gains in energy stocks helped to offset losses made by financials ahead of earnings season, which begins later in the week.

Energy stocks led the gainers as WTI oil rose 1.6% to settle at $53.08 per barrel after Libya's largest oilfield was shut down.

Concerns over geopolitical tensions continue to build in the Korean peninsula after the U.S. deployed a carrier strike group closer to the region, and as joint U.S.-Korea military drills continue till the end of the month.

Fed chair Yellen, at an event, said that plans to raise U.S. interest rates gradually are aimed at sustaining full employment and near-2% inflation without letting the economy overheat.

Dollar index eased from 101.24 to 101.

European markets ended with cuts of upto 0.9%.

AT HOME

After a positive start, Sensex and Nifty saw a sustained downward move through the session to end with cuts of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight day. Sensex lost 131 points to settle at 29576 while Nifty finished at 9181, down 17 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however ended with gains of 0.6% each. BSE IT and Teck indices tumbled 1.6% and 1.1% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Metal and Oil & Gas indices added 0.9% each, becoming top gainers.

FIIS net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 716 cr and 511 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 788 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 202 cr.

Rupee depreciated 30 paise to end at 64.70/$.

Gartner lowered its growth estimates in global IT services spending for 2017 to 2.3% from an earlier estimate of 4.2% due to US visa policy, automation and newer tech like cloud computing and blockchain.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a 0.3% lower Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a low of 9175, closed at 9181, extending the losing streak to third straight day and testing the immediate support zone of 9160-9180. A breach of 9175, the low made yesterday, would confirm a sell on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction. 20-DMA and 34-DMA, placed around 9135 and 9050 respectively, would be the downside targets if that happens. 

9274, the top made last week is the immediate hurdle above which 9400 would be the next target.

9160 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

9160 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended marginally lower, digesting a mixed employment report, a U.S. airstrike in Syria and comments from a top Federal Reserve official.

Reacting to US missile strike in Syria, Russia said the missile strike was "thoughtless" and called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council. Moscow also suspended a Syrian air cooperation agreement with Washington, which was put into place to avoid accidental conflict between the two nations' warplanes.

New York Fed President William Dudley said the U.S. should consider small adjustments to the Dodd-Frank law, which toughened oversight for financial institutions. He also said there might only be a slight pause in the Fed's plan to normalize rates if the central bank starts unwinding its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

U.S. economy added 98,000 jobs last month, well below the expected gain of 180,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% from 4.7%. Wage growth was not as strong either, with average hourly earnings up by 2.7% on an annualized basis.

Treasury yields slipped after the jobs report with the 10-year note yield briefly dipping below 2.3% to hit its lowest level since late November.

Dollar index rose about half a percent to 101.13.

European markets, except a marginally lower DAX, gained upto 0.6%.

For the week, Dow ended flat but S & P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. In Europe, FTSE and CAC gained 0.4% and 0.2% respectively but Dax fell 0.7%. In Asia Nikkei was down 1.3% but Shanghai and Hang Seng added 2% and 0.6% respectively.

President Donald Trump pressed Chinese President Xi Jinping to do more to curb North Korea's nuclear program and help reduce the gaping U.S. trade deficit with Beijing in talks on Friday, even as he toned down the strident anti-China rhetoric of his election campaign.

AT HOME

After a lower start, benchmark indices traded in a narrow range for better part of the day, but witnessed a fresh bout of selling in last hour or so to end lower by seven tenth of a percent, extending the losing streak to second day. Sensex lost 221 points to settle at 29707 while Nifty finished at 9198, down 64 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Healthcare index tumbled 1.4%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.2% cut in Metal and Realty indices. Telecom and Oil & Gas indices gained 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 262 cr and 509 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 564 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 415 cr.

Rupee appreciated 32 paise to end at fresh 20-month high of 64.4075/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.3% each.

OUTLOOK

Today morning except a 0.6% higher Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

For past couple of sessions we have been mentioning that 9180-9160 is the immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

The benchmark, after touching a low of 9188, closed at 9198 on Friday and is set to open higher today.

9160 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which trading longs can be held on to. 9274, the top made last week, is the immediate hurdle, above which 9400 would be the next target to eye.

ASIA TRADES LOWER ON GEOPOLITICAL WORRIES; 9160 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT FOR NIFTY

ASIA TRADES LOWER ON GEOPOLITICAL WORRIES; 9160 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT FOR NIFTY

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.1%-0.2% yesterday, but were well off session highs after Trump said he's willing to act alone on North Korea if China does not step up.

Trump also signaled he seeks to remove Bashar Assad from power in Syria, following a suspected chemical attack the White House has blamed on the Syrian government.

Markets also kept an eye on the two-day meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump that was set to begin yesterday. The two leaders are expected to discuss a series of issues, including trade and North Korea. Speaking to the media before a dinner with the Chinese president, Trump alluded to positive relations between the two countries.

Weekly jobless claims fell to 234,000, well below an expected print of 250,000.

European markets, except a 0.4% lower FTSE, gained 0.1%-0.6%.

AT HOME

After falling about half a percent, benchmark indices recouped most of the losses post RBI policy announcement to end just marginally lower. Sensex settled at 29927, down 47 points while Nifty lost 3 points to finish at 9262. BSE mid-cap index gained 0.2% but the small-cap index fell 0.2%. BSE Realty and Oil & Gas indices gained 2% and 0.9% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while FMCG index was the top loser, down 0.8%, followed by 0.6% cut in Healthcare, Telecom and Consumer Durable indices.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 143 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 928 cr and 168 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 206 cr.

Rupee appreciated 37 paise to end at 20-month high of 64.7275/$.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate, the rate at which RBI lends short term funds to banks, unchanged at 6.25%, but hiked the reverse repo rate, the rate at which RBI borrows from banks, by 25 basis points to 6%. It hiked its outlook for GDP growth to 7.4% in this fiscal from 6.7% last year. Inflation is expected to average around 4.5% in the first half and 5% in the second half.

Real estate stocks gained after RBI allowed banks to invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs) as well as infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs).

Parliament yesterday passed four legislations to pave the way for roll out of the historic Goods and Services Tax (GST) from the target date of July 1.

India's Nikkei Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a five-month high of 51.5 points in March, compared to 50.3 in Feb.

OUTLOOK

As per the latest development, the U.S. military has launched more than 50 missiles against targets in Syria.

Asian markets, except a modestly higher Nikkei, are trading with cuts of upto 0.8%. US futures are down about a fourth of a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points lower start for our market.

After Nifty achieved the immediate target of 9218, we have been working with the next target of 9400. In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 9180-9160 is the immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

The benchmark, after touching a low of 9219, recovered to end at 9262 but is set to open lower today.

9180-9160 continues to be immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

9160-9180 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT AREA; XI-TRUMP MEETING, RBI POLICY IN FOCUS

9160-9180 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT AREA; XI-TRUMP MEETING, RBI POLICY IN FOCUS

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended with cuts of 0.2%-0.6%, reversing earlier gains made following a solid employment data from ADP, after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March meeting.

The minutes showed Fed officials' intention to unwind the central bank's balance sheet later in the year if economic data continues to hold up. The Fed currently holds $4.5 trillion in bonds and actions to trim the balance sheet could have a major impact on markets given its magnitude. Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that such a move would be akin to a rate hike. The minutes also showed the central bank was concerned the stock market may be overvalued.

Markets also digested remarks from House Speaker Paul Ryan that tax reform will take longer to accomplish than repealing and replacing Obamacare would.

Data from ADP showed private payrolls rose by 263,000 last month, well above a consensus estimate of 185,000. The February number was revised significantly lower, however, from the originally reported 298,000. ISM non-manufacturing index came in at 55.2, below an expected read of 57.

The U.S. 10-year note yield traded lower, near 2.333%, after hitting 2.38% earlier in the session. Dollar index fell 0.1%.

WTI crude added 0.2% to $51.15 while Brent settled up 0.4% at $54.36 a barrel.

European markets, except a 0.1% higher FTSE, lost upto half a percent with DAX leading the losses. Eurozone services PMI jumped to 56.4 last month from 56 in February. UK services PMI improved to 55 from 53.3.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, with both the indices closing at fresh record high and Sensex touching the 30000 mark for the first time after March 2015. Sensex settled at 29974, up 64 points while Nifty added 27 points to finish at 9265. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 1.1% respectively. BSE Realty index soared 2.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 2.4% rise in Consumer Durable index. IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 0.8% and 0.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 340 cr and 635 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 291 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 194 cr.

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 65.0925/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a marginally higher Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.4%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points lower start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we had given targets of 9218 followed by 9400 after immediate hurdle of 9130 was taken out. Nifty achieved 9218 target on Monday and moved further higher to 9265 yesterday but is slated to open with a gap-down today.

9160-9180 is the immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to. 9400-9420 continues to be upside target to eye.

The Monetary Policy Committee, headed by RBI Governor Urjit Patel, is likely to leave the rates unchanged at the end of its 2-day meeting today in view of hardening inflation. The language on inflation however will be closely watched for cues to future rate direction. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets Trump in Florida today. Topping the agenda will be U.S.-China trade ties and U.S. requests for China to help rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor North Korea.

NIFTY ACHIEVES 9218 TARGET; 9400 NEXT

NIFTY ACHIEVES 9218 TARGET; 9400 NEXT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.1%-0.2% ahead of a key meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Xi and Trump will meet Thursday and Friday. Last week, Trump said via Twitter the meeting would not be easy because "we can't have massive trade deficits … and job losses."

Trump hinted at bank deregulation saying his administration will make it easier for banks to lend money, adding they will do a "massive haircut" to Dodd-Frank.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in February to $43.56 billion. Factory orders for February rose 1%, in line with expectations.

Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year near 2.35% after touching it lowest level since late February.

Brent oil rose 95 cent or 1.8% to $54.07 a barrel and WTI oil gained 1.6% to $51.03.

European markets gained upto 0.5%.

North Korea launched a medium-range ballistic missile from a land-based facility, ahead of a summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders on Thursday and Friday.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty soared 1% and 0.7% respectively with Sensex making a record high on closing basis while Nifty made a fresh intraday as well as closing record high. In absolute terms, Sensex added 290 points to settle at 29910 while Nifty finished at 9238, up 64 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.7% and 1.3% respectively. Except a 0.9% each cut in Teck, IT and Telecom indices, all the BSE sectoral indices closed in green with Capital Goods index leading the tally, up 3.5%, followed by 2.2% rise in Industrial index.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 534 cr and 157 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 100 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 33 cr.

Rupee depreciated 13 paise to end at 65.2275/$.

India's Nikkei Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.5 from 50.7 in February, marking the highest level in 5-months.

Ashok Leyland reported 12% rise in March sales at 18682 units. Hero Motocorp sales were 0.6% higher at 6.10 lac units.

Fulfilling a crucial election promise, the Uttar Pradesh government decided to waive off farm loans of upto Rs 1 lakh, in Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's first Cabinet meeting yesterday. The move is likely to benefit more than 2.25 crore farmers in the state, and is likely to cost the state exchequer Rs 30,729 crore.

The US Citizenship and Immigration Service has released a revised set of H-1B guidelines dated March 31, 2017, which will hit entry-level 'software programmers' and IT companies applying for work visas this H-1B season, which opened Monday.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 35 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty crossed the immediate hurdle of 9130, we had given targets of 9218 followed by 9400.

Nifty on Monday soared 64 poins to finish at 9238, achieving the 9218 target.

9400 continues to be next target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9160, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.