NIFTY RETREATS FROM 10645 HURDLE

 NIFTY RETREATS FROM 10645 HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices, after a positive start, plunged nearly a percent and half from the top of the day to end with cuts of 0.8%-0.9%, with the S & P 500 extending the losing streak to fifth straight day.

Apple fell 2.8% and briefly traded 20% below its all-time high after brokerage downgrade. Comments from Rep. Bill Pascrell that the updated trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico needs to be changed before it can pass through Congress also hurt the sentiment.

US crude rose 1% to settle at $56.25, breaking 12-day losing streak on the growing prospect of OPEC and allied producers cutting output at a meeting next month. Brent rose 51 cents to $65.08 a barrel.

European markets fell 0.3%-0.8%. The Italian government stuck to its contested 2019 deficit target of 2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), defying the European Union's call for Rome to revise fiscal targets. Brexit was another area of focus for after news of a key breakthrough between Britain and the EU on a divorce deal. On the data front, dented by weaker export numbers, Europe's largest economy, Germany, shrank by 0.2% between July and September.

AT HOME

It was a day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended flat after a choppy session. Sensex settled at 35141, down 2 points while Nifty lost 6 points to finish at 10576. BSE mid-cap index rose 0.2% while small-cap index fell 0.2%. BSE IT and Teck indices tumbled 2.2% and 1.9% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Oil & Gas and FMCG indices were the top gainers, up 1.2% and 0.9% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 277 cr and 92 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1215 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 272 cr.

Rupee appreciated 36 paise to end at 72.30/$.

India's Inflation based on wholesale prices rose to a four-month high of 5.28% in October, up from 5.13% in September.

M & M's net profit beat expectation but operating margins fell. Revenue rose 6% to Rs 12790 cr, EBITDA fell 4% to Rs 1849 cr, margin contracted to 14.5% from 16%. Net profit rose 26% y-o-y to Rs 1779 cr.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is up 0.8%, Shanghai is flat while Nikkei is off 0.3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that "10645, the top made on Monday, is the immediate hurdle to eye above which 10710, the top made in mid-October, would be the next resistance".

Nifty, after touching a high of 10651 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 10576 and is set to open around 10600 today.

10645 continues to be immediate hurdle, upon sustained trading above which, 10710 and 10760 would be next upside targets to eye where 10710 is the top made in mid-October while 10760 is where the 200-DMA is placed.

10440-10400 continues to be immediate support zone.

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 10400 SUPPORT; 10710 ABOVE 10645

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM THE VICINITY OF 10400 SUPPORT; 10710 ABOVE 10645

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq ended flat.

Energy stocks fell the most as WTI crude collapsed $4.24 or 7.1% to $55.69 a barrel, extending the losing streak to 12th consecutive day and hitting a one year low after Trump said he hoped OPEC would not cut oil production in order to lift prices. Brent fell $4.28 or 6.1% to $65.84.

Stocks hit session high earlier in the day after media reports suggested that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had resumed trade talks.

Dollar index fell more than half a percent to 96.96.

European markets, except a flat FTSE, gained 0.8%-1.3%.

AT HOME

It was a mirror image of Monday's trade as benchmark indices, after starting lower by about 0.4%, surged just under a percent and half from the bottom of the day to end higher by a percent. Sensex settled at 35144, up 331 points while Nifty added 100 points to finish at 10582. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. BSE Energy and Oil & Gas indices climbed 1.9% and 1.8% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices. Healthcare and Realty indices were the top losers, down 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 495 cr, 111 cr and 604 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 336 cr.

Rupee appreciated 22 paise to end at 72.67/$.

Sun Pharma reported operationally in line numbers but revenue missed estimate. Tata Steel reported better-than-expected topline while adjusted margins were in-line with estimates. Adjusted EBIDTA/tone for Indian operation was better-than-expected.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.4% but Hang Seng and Shanghai are modestly lower. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that "10400, which is the 38.2% retracement level of the 10004-10645 upmove and where a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the hourly chart is placed, continues to be immediate support to eye".

Nifty, after touching a low of 10440 in the initial trade, rebounded sharply to end at 10582 and is set to open above 10600 today.

10645, the top made on Monday, is the immediate hurdle to eye above which 10710, the top made in mid-October, would be the next resistance. 10400 continues to be immediate support.

M & M will report its quarterly earnings today.

10400 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 10550 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

10400 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 10550 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices nosedived 2%-2.8% on the back of a big fall in Apple, a rise in the US Dollar and lingering worries about global trade.

Media reports suggested that the White House was circulating a draft report on auto tariffs.

Dollar index surged about two third of a percent to 97.64, its highest level since June 2017, raising concerns over its impact on earnings growth.

Apple plunged 5% after Lumentum Holdings, which makes technology for the iPhone's face-recognition function, cut its outlook for fiscal second quarter 2019. Alphabet and Amazon shares pulled back 2.7% and 4.3% respectively. Goldman shares posted their biggest drop in seven years after a report Malaysia's finance minister demanded a refund of fees paid the firm for its work in scandal-plagued state investment fund 1MDB.

US oil fell 26 cents to $59.93 a barrel, extending the losing streak to 11th session. Brent eased 6 cents to $70.12.

European markets fell 0.6%-1.8%

AT HOME

After gaining about half a percent at the open, benchmark indices nosedived a percent and half from the top of the day to end lower by a percent. Sensex settled at 34812, down 345 points while Nifty finished at 10482, down 103 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. Auto and Telecom indices tumbled 2.3% and 2% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durable index climbed 1.4%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.5% higher IT index.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 832 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 169 cr and 147 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1074 cr.

Rupee ended at 72.89/$, depreciating 40 paise compared to previous close.

CPI and IIP came in better-than-expected. October CPI eased to 3.31% from 3.70% in the previous month. September IIP growth eased to 4.5% from 4.7% in the previous month.

Eicher Motor's revenue and margin were in-line with expectation but PAT was a miss owing to an exceptional loss. Coal India's revenue rose 23% and adjusted margins stood at 23% as against the expectation of 21.2%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is down more than 3% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 2% and 0.7% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points lower start for our market.

For past couple of sessions we have been mentioning that a decisive crossover of 10607, the top made last week, which roughly coincided with 34-DMA, is required for a fresh upmove. Nifty has been hovering around this level since then but have not been able to take it out decisively.

Yesterday too, after touching a high of 10645 in the initial trade, the benchmark tumbled to end at 10482 and is set to open below 10450 today.

10400, which is the 38.2% retracement level of the 10004-10645 upmove and where a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the hourly chart is placed, continues to be immediate support to eye. Below 10400, 10325 and 10250, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the 10004-10645 upmove respectively, would be the next support levels to eye.

10550 is the immediate resistance on the hourly chart above which, 10645, the top made yesterday, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

Sun Pharma and Tata Steel will report their quarterly earnings today.

10607 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10400 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

10607 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10400 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.8%-1.6% as continued slide in oil and disappointing data from China sparked fears of a global economic slowdown.

WTI crude fell 0.8% to $60.19 a barrel, after briefly breaking below $60 for the first time since March and extending the losing streak to tenth straight day. Brent fell 39 cents at $70.26 a barrel.

Auto sales in China fell 11.7% last month, marking the fourth straight monthly decline.

Comments on US-China trade front from White House trade advisor Peter Navarro that "If there is a deal — if and when there is a deal, it will be on President Donald J. Trump's terms. Not Wall Street's terms,", also soured the sentiment.

European markets, except flat DAX, fell 0.5%-0.9%.

For the week, Dow and S & P 500 surged 2.8% and 2.1% respectively while Nasdaq rose 0.7%, extending the winning streak to second consecutive week. European markets ended with marginal gains of 0.1%-0.2%. In Asia, Hang Seng and Shanghai nosedived 3.3% and 2.9% respectively while Nikkei was flat.

OPEC and its allies warned about surging oil output that is set to leave the crude market oversupplied in 2019 and said that they may have to launch a fresh round of output cuts in order to keep the oil market balanced. 

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty ended modestly lower after trading in a narrow range on last day of the truncated Diwali week. Sensex lost 79 points to settle at 35158 while Nifty finished at 10585, down 13 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. BSE IT and Teck indices tumbled 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare and Consumer Durable indices were the top gainers, up 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. BSE advance-decline ratio stood at 1.1:1.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 614 cr, 647 cr and 137 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 337 cr.

Rupee appreciated 50 paise to end at 72.49/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, extending the winning streak to second straight week.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

Readers would recall that last to last week, Nifty made a top of 10607 which was very close to 34-DMA and we had said that a decisive crossover of this hurdle is required for a fresh upmove. Last week, Nifty hovered around this level, traded within a narrow 10619-10477 range and finally settled at 10585. The benchmark is set to open around 10550 today.

A sustained trading above 10607 is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 10710, the top made in mid-October, followed by 200-DMA placed around 10760, would be next targets/hurdles to eye.

10400 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

India's October CPI will be out today and is expected to ease to 3.67% from 3.77% in the previous month. Industrial production for September will also be released and is expected to ease to  4.1% from 4.3%.

Coal India, Aurobindo Pharma and Eicher Motors will report their quarterly earnings today.

10710, 10765 ABOVE 10607; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10400

10710, 10765 ABOVE 10607; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10400

WORLD MARKETS

Yesterday, Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, after digesting the latest monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve.

Earlier, On Wednesday, Dow and S & P 500 soared 2.1% each while Nasdaq climbed 2.6% after the midterm election results came in about as expected and President Trump indicated he is willing to work with Democrats on policy initiatives that would help the economy keep growing. Democrats won control of the House of Representatives while Republicans retained their hold on the Senate, as the midterm's outcome split Congress.

The Fed yesterday kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected. However, the central bank said in a statement it expects "further gradual increases" in the overnight rate.

Dollar index rose about half a percent to 96.63.

US oil fell $1 or 1.6% to $60.67, extending the fall to ninth straight day and briefly wiping out its gains for the year on further signs of growing supply even as data showed record Chinese oil imports. Brent fell $1.33 or 1.9% to $70.74 a barrel.

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.3% while CAC, DAX and Italy fell 0.1%-0.6%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by 0.7% each on the truncated Muhurat trading session on Wednesday. Sensex added 245 points to settle at 35237 while Nifty finished at 10598, up 68 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.8% and 1.2% respectively.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.8%-1.3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

In Tuesday's report we had said that "10607, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle above which 10710, the top made in mid-October, would be the next important resistance".

Nifty, after touching a high of 10600, slipped to end at 10530 on Tuesday. On Diwali Muhurat trading session, after touching a high of 10616 at the open, the benchmark closed at 10598 and is set to open lower today.

10607, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon sustained trading above which, 10710-10765 would be the crucial resistance zone where 10710 is the top made in mid-October while 10765 is where 200-DMA is placed.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10400, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

10710 ABOVE 10607; 10300 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

10710 ABOVE 10607; 10300 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 rose 0.8% and 0.6% respectively as gains in Berkshire Hathaway buoyed the broader financials sector, but Nasdaq fell 0.4%.

Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares climbed 4.7% after it disclosed over the weekend that it bought back nearly $1 billion of its own shares in August. Chevron shares jumped 3.7% to lead the energy sector higher after Credit Suisse upgraded it to outperform from neutral. Apple and Amazon however fell more than 2%, dragging Nasdaq lower.

Earlier, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his rhetoric against protectionism and commitment to free trade in a speech. Xi said his country was pursuing "a new round of high-standard opening up" to broaden market access to the rest of the world.

European markets ended mixed with modest changes.

US oil fell 4 cents to $63.10 while Brent was up 34 cents at $73.17 a barrel as the United States formally imposed punitive sanctions on Iran but granted eight countries temporary waivers.

AT HOME

After falling about seven tenth of a percent, benchmark indices recouped more than half of the losses in last half an hour to end lower by nearly a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 34950, down 60 points while Nifty fell 24 points to finish at 10528. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Power and Oil & Gas indices tumbled 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Realty index climbed 1.6%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.5% higher Basic Material index.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 12 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 481 cr and 532 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 623 cr.

Rupee depreciated 68 paise to end at 73.12/$.

SBI reported 40% y-o-y dip in net profit at Rs 945 cr for the September quarter as against expectation of a  loss of Rs 225 cr. Gross NPA ratio improved 74 bps q-o-q to 9.95% while net NPA ratio improved 45 bps to 4.84%. Gross slippages fell to Rs 10888 cr from Rs 14349 cr.

India's October services PMI rose to a three-month high at 52.2, up from 50.9 in the previous month. Composite PMI improved to 53 from 51.6.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up nearly a percent, Hang Seng is flat while Shanghai is modestly lower. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 45 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that "10607, the top made Friday, roughly coincides with 34-DMA as well as the upper band of bollinger on the daily chart, hence making it an important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove."

Nifty, after touching a low of 10477 intraday, rebounded in last half an hour to end at 10524 and is set to open above 10550 today.

10607, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle above which 10710, the top made in mid-October, would be the next important resistance.

10300 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

U.S. midterm elections scheduled for today. If the GOP maintains a majority in both chambers, it could give stocks a short-term boost as it increases the likelihood of further tax cuts. On the flip side, a Democratic sweep could pressure stocks as it could lead to a reversal of some of the policies passed by the GOP to boost the economy in the near term.

10607 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10300 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

10607 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10300 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended with cuts of 0.4%-1% after a volatile session after digesting strong jobs report and different comments and reports on US-China trade war, while Apple shares dented the broader tech sector.

Stocks initially surged after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs last month, as against an expected figure of 190000. Wages, meanwhile, rose 3.1% on an annualized basis in October for the first time since the recession.

The fall came after Larry Kudlow, Trump's top economic advisor, in a media interaction said there is no trade plan in the works for China. These comments contradicted a Bloomberg report from earlier on Friday that said Trump had asked officials to prepare a draft for a U.S.-China trade deal.

However, indices later on pared some of their losses after Trump told reporters the U.S. and China are much closer to striking a deal on trade, saying the two countries will have a good deal in place.

Apple plunged 6.6% after the company's iPhone shipments for last quarter missed estimates. The company also offered light guidance and announced major changes to its reporting structure.

US treasury yields rose following the jobs data. The benchmark 10-year note yield traded around 3.21% percent while the two-year yield climbed to 2.91% and hit its highest level in a decade.

US oil fell 55 cents to $63.14 after the United States said it will temporarily spare eight jurisdictions from Iran-related sanctions. Brent rose 2 cents to $72.91 a barrel.

European markets, except 0.3% lower FTSE, gained 0.3%-1.1%. Euro zone factory output grew at the weakest pace in more than two years in October, due to lower export orders.

For the week, Dow and S & P 500 gained 2.4% each while Nasdaq broke 4-week losing streak to end higher by 2.6%. European markets gained 2.2%-2.8%, with CAC breaking 5-week losing streak. In Asia, Hang Seng and Nikkei soared 7.2% and 5% respectively while Shanghai rose 3%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices soared 1.7% to end at the highest level since 16th October, 2018. Sensex settled at 35011, up 580 points while Nifty added 172 points to finish at 10553. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however underperformed today, rising 0.8% each. BSE Auto and Metal indices climbed 4% and 3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1.3% and 1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 197 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1381 cr and 446 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 853 cr.

Rupee appreciated 101 paise to end at 72.44/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty soared 5% and 5.2% respectively, registering the highest weekly gain in 29 months.

Axis Bank reported better-than-expected earnings and improvement in asset quality. NII was up 15% at Rs 5232 cr while Net profit soared 82.6% to Rs 790 cr. Gross NPA ratio improved 56 bps q-o-q to 5.96% and net NPA ratio fell 55 bps to 2.54%. Slippages fell to a ten quarter low at Rs 2777 cr from 4337 cr in Q1.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.6%-1.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points lower start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that Above 10440, 10480, the two-third retracement level of the 10710-10004 fall, would be the immediate target above which, 10710, the top made in mid-October, would be the next crucial hurdle. We had also advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 10220.

Nifty opened at 10480 and surged all the way to 10607 before closing at 10553 on Friday and is set to open around 10500 today.

10607, the top made Friday, roughly coincides with 34-DMA as well as the upper band of bollinger on the daily chart, hence making it an important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 10710-10765 would be the next crucial resistance zone where 10710 is the top made in mid-October while 10765 is where 200-DMA is placed.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10300, with the stop-loss of which, existing long can be held on to.

SBI and Cipla will report their quarterly earnings today.