11700 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11480 BELOW 11550

11700 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11480 BELOW 11550

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended flat to modestly lower ahead of the start of the earnings season.

J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are among the companies set to kick off the latest earnings season today, which is expected to be rough.

Stocks had initially rose on media reports that China agreed to open its cloud-computing sector to foreign companies in an attempt to sweeten a deal with the U.S.

US oil fell $1.03 or 1.6% to $63.58 a barrel while Brent eased 90 cents, or 1.3%, to $70.83.

In Europe, FTSE was flat while DAX and CAC rose 0.2% and 0.7% respectively after EU leaders granted the U.K. a further extension to the date of Brexit.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended marginally higher after a rangebound buy choppy session. Sensex settled at 38607, up 21 points while Nifty added 12 points to finish at 11596. BSE mid-cap index rose 0.1% while small-cap index ended flat. BSE Energy and Telecom indices gained 1.1% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Metal and IT indices tumbled 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 477 cr and 28 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 745 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 17 cr.

Rupee appreciated 19 paise to end at 68.92/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.4% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

Nifty has been in a consolidation mode for past couple of session after a strong run-up, followed by a negative divergence on the daily chart. In this consolidation phase, 11700 is working as the immediate resistance while 20-DMA, placed around 11550, has worked as a support.

Yesterday, after touching a low of 11550, the benchmark rebounded to end at 11596 but is set to open near 11550 today.

11550, where 20-DMA is placed, is the immediate support to eye, below which, 11480-11460, where 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 11311-11761 upmove are placed, would be the next support zone.

11700 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 11761, the top made last week, would be the next target to eye.

TCS and Infosys will report their quarterly earnings today.

NIFTY RESISTED NEAR 11700 ONCE AGAIN

NIFTY RESISTED NEAR 11700 ONCE AGAIN

WORLD MARKETS

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.4% and 0.7% respectively,  as the minutes of latest Fed meeting reaffirmed that it would keep rates unchanged this year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting, revealing that Fed officials are leaving room for possible interest rate hikes by the end of the year but currently do not expect to make any changes.

US Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March, the largest increase in over a year.

On the US-China trade negotiations front, treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the U.S. and China have “pretty much agreed on an enforcement mechanism ” for when a deal is struck.

US oil rose 64 cents or 1% to $64.61 a barrel and Brent gained $1.04 or 1.5% to $71.65 after U.S. data showing a hefty drawdown in gasoline stockpiles overshadowed crude inventories rising to their highest levels in more than a year.

In Europe, FTSE was flat while DAX and CAC gained 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. European Union leaders have offered to delay Brexit until Oct. 31.

AT HOME

One-day-up, one-day-down phenomena extended as benchmark indices ended lower by just under a percent owing to sharp, late noon plunge. Sensex lost 353 points to settle at 38585 while Nifty finished at 11584, down 87 points. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.3% while small-cap index ended flat. BSE Telecom and Finance indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, giving away 2.1% and 1.1% respectively while Realty and Healthcare indices were the top gainers, up 1% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1430 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1170 cr and 689 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 461 cr.

Rupee appreciated 18 paise to end at 69.11/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is a tad lower while Hang Seng and Shanghai are marginally higher. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 11700 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

Nifty, after touching a high of 11680, slipped to end at 11584 and is set to open above 11600 today.

At the risk of repeating, 11700 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 11761, the top made last week, would be the next target to eye.

11480 and 11460, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 11311-11761 upmove, continue to be support levels to eye.

Phase 1 of the 2019 Lok Sabha election kickstarts today and 91 constituencies across 20 states and Union Territories will go for a poll today.

11700 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

11700 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.6%-0.7%, awaited the start of corporate earnings season later this week.

US crude fell 42 cents to $69.38 a barrel and Brent eased 49 cents to $70.61 as Russia signaled the possible easing of a supply-cutting deal with OPEC.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union intensified after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Monday proposed a list of European Union products on which to slap tariffs as retaliation for European aircraft subsidies.

European markets fell 0.3%-0.9%

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for this year to 3.3% from previous outlook of 3.5%.

AT HOME

After falling more than half a percent from the initial higher start, benchmark indices soared nearly a percent from the bottom of the day to end higher by six tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 38939, up 238 points while Nifty added 67 points to finish at 11671. BSE mid-cap index gained 0.2% but small-cap index fell 0.1%. Except 0.8% and 0.4% lower Telecom and Consumer Durable indices, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Realty and Auto indices leading the tally, up 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1212 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 212 cr and 228 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to tune of Rs 689 cr.

Rupee appreciated 38 paise to end at 69.29/$.

The IMF cut India growth forecast for FY20 by 20 bps to 7.3%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.4%-0.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that "11700 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove". We had also said that 11480 and 11460, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 11311-11761 upmove, are the support levels to eye.

Nifty, after touching a low of 11570, surged to close at 11677 and is set to open around 11650 today.

11700 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 11761, the top made last week, would be the next target to eye.

11480 and 11460, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 11311-11761 upmove, continue to be support levels to eye.

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11700 HURDLE; 11480 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11700 HURDLE; 11480 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow fell 0.3% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

Boeing dropped more than 4% after Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its rating on the company to neutral from buy. GE fell more than 5% after J.P. Morgan downgraded the stock.

Factory orders for February fell 0.5% amid weakness in the machinery, transportation equipment and electronic products segments. Shipments, however, rose 0.4%. Treasury yields climbed on the data. The 10-year rate rose to around 2.51% while the 30-year yield traded at 2.926%.

Brent crude rose 69 cents or 1% to $71.03 a barrel and WTI gained 2.1% to $64.40 amid a recent resurgence in conflict in Libya, a key oil producer in the OPEC.

European markets ended mixed with modest changes. Germany's exports dipped 1.3% month-on-month in February, while imports dropped 1.6%.

AT HOME

After gaining about four tenth of a percent at the open, benchmark indices tumbled nearly a percent from the top of the day to end lower by about half a percent. Sensex settled at 38700, down 161 points while Nifty lost 61 points to finish at 11604. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Realty and Energy indices tumbled 2.3% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top gainers, up 1% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 330 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 865 cr and 1039 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 624 cr.

Rupee depreciated 45 paise to end at 69.67/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading flat to modestly lower and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that "11700, the 67% retracement level of the recent 11761-11559 fall, continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove".

Nifty, after touching a high of 11710 in the initial trade, plunged sharply to 11549 before closing at 11604 and is set to open marginally higher today.

11700 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 11761, the top made last week, would be the next target to eye.

11480 and 11460, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 11311-11761 upmove, are the support levels to eye.

11700 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11559 NEAREST SUPPORT

11700 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 11559 NEAREST SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.2%-0.6%, boosted by better-than-expected jobs data and progress on the U.S.-China trade front.

U.S. economy added 196,000 jobs in March as against the expected print of 175000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 3.8%. However, wage growth expanded 3.2%, below an expected gain of 3.4%.

President Donald Trump said Thursday that swift progress had been made, adding “we’ll know over the next four weeks” whether a deal can be reached.

US crude rose 98 cents or 1.6% to $63.11 a barrel while Brent gained 94 cents or 1.4% to $70.34.

European markets rose 0.2%-0.6%. German factory orders fell at their sharpest rate in two years. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report said the Italian government is set to cut its 2019 GDP forecast to just 0.1% — significantly lower than a 1% expansion forecast in December.

For the week, US indices gained 1.9%-2.7%. In Europe, DAX soared 4.2% while FTSE and CAC climbed 2.3% each. In Asia, Hang Seng and Nikkei were up 3.1% and 2.8% respectively, while Shanghai and Sensex rose 0.5% each.

On Saturday, Chinese official broadcaster CCTV reported that there was “new progress” in trade talks that wrapped in Washington on Friday.

AT HOME

After a rangbound trade, Sensex and Nifty spiked up in last half an hour to end higher by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, breaking two-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 38862, up 177 points while Nifty added 68 points to finish at 11666. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Metal and Basic Material indices climbed 2% and 1.6% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Power and Utilities indices were the top losers, down 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 798 cr and 632 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 511 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 326 cr.

Rupee depreciated 6 paise to end at 69.22/$.

For the week, Sesnex and Nifty gained 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, extending the winning streak to seventh consecutive week.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is flat while Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

After Nifty broke the immediate support of 11600, we had given downside target of 11480 and had suggested holding on to trading shorts with the stop-loss of 11700.

Nifty, after touching a low of 11559 on Thursday, rebounded to close at 11665 on Friday.

11700, the 67% retracement level of the recent 11761-11559 fall, continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 11761, the top made last week, would be the next target to eye.

11559, the low made last week, is the immediate support to eye below which, 11480 would be the next support.

STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 11700

STAY SHORT WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 11700

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.6% and 0.2% respectively but Nasdaq ended marginally in the red as Tesla shares were under pressure. S & P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive day.

Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump expects to announce the date of a trade summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later in the day, lifting market sentiment. CNBC later reported, however, that sticking points like enforcement mechanisms on any agreed upon deal remain an issue.

Tesla shares plunged 8.2% after the company said it delivered fewer-than-expected Model 3 cars in the first quarter.

WTI crude fell 36 cents to $62.10 a barrel while Brent rose 9 cents to $69.40.

In Europe, FTSE and CAC ended with modest cuts while DAX rose 0.3%.  German factory orders fell 4.2% in February, marking their sharpest fall since January 2017.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty ended lower by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively after a choppy session, extending the losing streak to second consecutive day. Sensex settled at 38684, down 192 points while Nifty lost 46 points to finish at 11598. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. BSE IT index was the top loser among the sectoral indices, down 1.5%, followed by 1.2% lower Energy and Teck indices. Healthcare and Auto indices gained 0.6% each, becoming top gainers.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 226 cr and 167 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 73 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1206 cr.

Rupee depreciated 74 paise to end at 69.16/$.

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 6% while maintaining the policy stance "Neutral". Forecasts for growth as well as inflation were lowered. The MPC now sees FY20 GDP growth at 7.2%, down from 7.4% earlier. H1FY20 retail inflation forecast has been lowered to 2.9-3% from 3.2-3.4% while that for H2FY20 has been cut to 3.5-3.8% from 3.9% earlier.

India's March Nikkei Services PMI fell to a six-month low of 52, down from 52.5 in February. Composite PMI fell to 52.7 from 53.8.

OUTLOOK

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He met U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House’s Oval Office late yesterday.  According to official state media Xinhua, He said a new consensus has been reached between China and the U.S. on the text of a trade agreement that they are negotiating.

Stock markets in China and Hong Kong are closed today for a holiday. Other Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that a breach of 11600 will generate a "sell" on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction.

Nifty broke 11600 support and fell all the way to 11559 before closing at 11598.

11480 and 11460, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 11311-11761 upmove, are the downside targets/support levels to eye.

Immediate resistance is placed around 11700, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts should be held on to.

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER ACHIEVING 11760 TARGET; 11600 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER ACHIEVING 11760 TARGET; 11600 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 rose 0.2% each while Nasdaq gained 0.6%, cheering a nearing trade deal between the U.S. and China. However, weaker-than-expected economic data kept gains in check.

The ISM non-manufacturing index dipped to 56.1 last month, its softest read since August 2017. Private payrolls increased by 129,000 in March, well below estimate of 173,000.

WTI crude settled 12 cents lower at $62.46 a barrel and Brent eased 6 cents to $69.31. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. commercial crude inventories surged by 7.2 million barrels in the week through March 29.

European markets gained 0.4%-1.7% with DAX on the top. IHS Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Final PMI — widely seen as an indicator of overall economic health — stood at 51.6 in March, down from 51.9 in February. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will ask the EU for an extension to the Brexit deadline in order to “break the logjam” in Parliament.

AT HOME

After opening higher, benchmark indices nosedived nearly a percent from the top of the day to end with cuts of about half a percent. This was the first red day after four consecutive up days. Sensex settled at 38877, down 180 points while Nifty lost 69 points to finish at 11644. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Oil & Gas and Telecom indices leading the losses, down 2.1% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1040 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 92 cr and 1356 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 81 cr.

Rupee appreciated 32 paise to end at 68.42/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is flat while Nikkei and Shanghai are up 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had been working with the target of 11760 after Nifty took out 11572 hurdle.

The benchmark yesterday touched a high of 11761, achieving this target and vindicating our view. From there, it slipped sharply to end at 11644 and is set to open around 11650 today.

11600 continues to be immediate support, a breach of which will generate a "sell" on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction. 11480 and 11460, the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 11311-11761 upmove, would be the next support levels to eye if that happens.

11760 continues to be important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

RBI's monetary policy committee will deliver it's first policy decision of the new fiscal today. A 25 bps repo rate cut is widely expected while the street is divided on whether the MPC will change its stance from "Neutral" to "Accomodative".