Monday, September 16, 2019

10860 BELOW 10945; 11140-11220 CONTINUES TO BE RESISTANCE ZONE


10860 BELOW 10945; 11140-11220 CONTINUES TO BE RESISTANCE ZONE

WORLD MARKETS

Dow gained 0.1%, extending the winning streak to eight straight day while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.1% and 0.2% respectively on Friday.

Sentiment around the trade war improved after the New York Times reported Friday that China will exempt some U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans and pork, from additional tariffs. Earlier on Thursday, US President Trump said he would not rule out an interim trade deal with China.

On the data front, consumer sentiment for September topped expectations as consumers felt better about the economy.

European markets gained 0.2%-0.6%. The euro zone’s trade surplus in goods with the U.S. hit a record high in July. Exports to the U.S. rose to 32.8 billion euros, their highest level since records began in 1999, while imports into the bloc from the U.S. rose to 18 billion euros.

AT HOME

After falling about a third of a percent in the first hour, benchmark indices soared more than a percent from the bottom of the day to end higher by eight tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 37384, up 280 points while Nifty added 93 points to finish at 11075. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. Except 0.5% and 0.4% lower Telecom and Healthcare indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Oil & Gas and Consumer Durable indices leading the tally, up 2.7% and 1.9% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 405 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 300 cr and 127 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 210 c.

Rupee appreciated 21 paise to end at 70.91/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.1% and 1.2% respectively.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced a slew of measures to boost exports and the flagging housing sector. The first one is a new export promotion scheme for the remission of duties or taxes on export products. This scheme will completely replace Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) and Rebate of State Levies (ROSL). The second announcement is the set-up of a Rs 10,000 crore special fund, a special window for affordable and mid-income housing. The fund will provide the last-mile funding for housing projects that are non-NPA and non-NCLT projects and are stuck due to lack of funding.

OUTLOOK

Over the weekend, drone attacks hit Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities which led to stoppage of half the country’s oil production which represent around 5% of world oil output.  Owing to this Brent is up 11.5% at $67.12 per barrel while WTI is up 10.4% at 60.54 in today’s trade.

Today, Nikkei is shut while Hang Seng is down half a percent and Shanghai is up about 0.4%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 90 points lower start for our market.

In Friday's report we had reiterated the view that 11140-11220 continues to be next target zone and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 10930.

Nifty, after touching a low of 10945, reversed and surged all the way to 11084 before closing at 11075 but is set to open below 11000 today.

10945, the low made on Friday, is the immediate support, upon breach of which, 10860, where a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the daily chart is placed, would be the next support to eye.

11141-11220 continues to be upside target/resistance zone where 11141 and 11181 are the tops made on 27th August and 9th August respectively while 11220 is where 200-DMA is placed.

Friday, September 13, 2019

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10930


TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10930

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.2%-0.3% after digesting a slew of U.S.-China trade news along with a large bond buying program from Europe’s central bank.

President Trump agreed on Wednesday to delay an additional increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks “as a gesture of good will.
Yesterday, indices touched session highs after Bloomberg News reported that Trump’s advisors were considering an interim deal with China but came off the day high after a senior White House official denied such a deal.

European Central Bank cut its deposit rate to a record low -0.5% from -0.4% and said it will restart bond purchases of 20 billion euros a month from November to prop up euro zone growth.

Brent crude futures fell 74 cents, or 1.2%, to $60.07 a barrel while WTI futures fell 92 cents, or 1.7%, to $54.83 after a media report cast doubt on the possibility of an interim U.S.-China trade deal and as a meeting of the OPEC+ alliance yielded no decision on deepening crude supply cuts.

European markets rose 0.1%-0.9%.

AT HOME

After gaining nearly half a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices reversed these gains through the sessions to end lower by about half a percent, with Nifty breaking 5-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 37104, down 166 points while Nifty lost 53 points to finish at 10982. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.2% while small-cap index rose 0.1%. BSE Auto and Telecom indices tumbled 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Finance index rose 0.4%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.2% higher Bankex and Capital Goods indices.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 784 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1006 cr and 200 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 127 cr.

Rupee appreciated 52 paise to end at 71.13/$.

July IIP growth came in at 4.3%, up from 2% growth registered in June. August CPI rose marginally to 3.21% from 3.15% in July.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.9% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 11140-11220 continues to be next target zone and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 10900.

Nifty, after touching a high of 11081, slipped to end at 10982 and is set to open little changed today.

11140-11220 continues to be upside target/resistance zone to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10930, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs can be held on to.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

11140-11220 CONTINUES TO BE TARGET ZONE; 10900 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

11140-11220 CONTINUES TO BE TARGET ZONE; 10900 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices rose 0.7%-1.1%, with the Dow rising for the sixth straight day, as shares of Apple surged.

Apple rose 3.2% after unveiling three new iPhones on Tuesday along with a new Apple Watch and a TV subscription service. Apple also showcased a gaming subscription called Apple Arcade.

On the data front, the U.S. producer price index rose 0.1% in August, as against expectation of it being unchanged.

Earlier, China moved to exempt 16 types of U.S. products from its additional retaliatory tariffs.

WTI crude fell 2.9% to $55.75 a barrel, while Brent fell 2.3% to $60.96 a barrel after Trump discussed easing sanctions on Iran in order to reopen negotiations.

Main European markets gained 0.4%-1%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices rose three tenth of a percent, with Nifty extending the winning streak to fifth consecutive day. Sensex settled at 37270, up 125 points while Nifty added 32 points to finish at 11035. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices soared 1% and 1.4% respectively. BSE Realty and Auto indices soared 4.4% and 3.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1.3% and 1.2% respectively

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 267 cr, 41 cr and 498 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1132 cr.

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 71.65/$.

Yes Bank soared on reports that co-founder Rana Kapoor is in talks with Paytm to sell his stake in the bank. Tata Motors jumped after company's retail sales in China recovered in the month of August.

OUTLOOK

U.S. President Trump tweeted couple of hours back that increased tariffs on 250 billion dollars worth of Chinese goods that were set to kick in on October 1 have now been delayed to October 15 “as a gesture of good will.”

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 11140-11220 is the next target zone and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 10885.

Nifty, after touching a high of 11054, closed at 11035 and is set to open higher today.

11140-11220 continues to be next target zone where 11141 and 11181 are the tops made on 27th August and 9th August respectively while 11220 is where 200-DMA is placed. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10900, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

IIP for July will be released today and is expected to show a growth of 2.26% as against growth of 2% registered in June. CPI for August too will be out and is expected to inch up to 3.28% from 3.15% in July.

The European Central Bank meets today to decide its latest monetary policy, with markets cautiously hopeful of a fresh stimulus package to boost the ailing euro zone economy.


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

11140-11220 IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 10885


11140-11220  IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 10885

WORLD MARKETS

Dow rose 0.3%, extending the winning streak to fifth straight day, while S & P 500 and Nasdaq ended little changed as technology stocks fell.

On the US-China trade front, South China Morning Post reported yesterday that China has offered to increase U.S. agricultural purchases in exchange for a delay in tariffs and easing of a supply ban against telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies.

Earlier, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said there is a “conceptual agreement” around intellectual property theft with China. This is one of the most contentious issues between both countries. Meanwhile, Huawei dropped one of its lawsuits against the U.S. after some equipment seized by Washington nearly two years ago was returned to the company.

Brent futures fell 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.25 a barrel while WTI futures settled 45 cents, or 0.8% lower, at $57.40 a barrel.

European markets, except 0.6% lower Italy, gained 0.1%-0.8%. In UK, lawmakers early Tuesday morning rejected Johnson’s second bid to hold a snap general election. British Parliament is now suspended until October 14 with the Brexit outcome no clearer.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices gained nearly half a percent on Monday, with Nifty extending the winning streak to fourth straight day. Sensex settled at 37145, up 163 points while Nifty added 56 points to finish at 11003. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1% and 0.9% respectively. Except 0.8% and 0.5% lower IT and Teck indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Telecom and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 1.7% each.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 188 cr and 53 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 221 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of RS 686 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 71.70/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In Monday's report we had said that "10980 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required to generate a "Buy" on the hourly chart. If that happens, 11140-11200 would be the next target zone".

Nifty crossed 10980 hurdle and touched a high of 11028 before closing at 11003 and is set

11140-11220 is the next target zone where 11141 and 11181 are the tops made on 27th August and 9th August respectively while 11220 is where 200-DMA is placed.

10885 is where immediate support is placed on hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

Monday, September 9, 2019

10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10816 NEAREST SUPPORT


10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10816 NEAREST SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 rose 0.3% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq fell 0.2% on Friday after digesting August employment report.

The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August, lower than the expected 150000 mark. Unemployment remained steady at a rate of 3.7% while wages expanded by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.2% y-o-y.

Fed Chairman Powell said the central bank will act as needed to sustain the current economic expansion, noting he does not expect the U.S. economy to fall into a recession.

Treasury yields dipped from their session highs on the jobs data with the 10-year  yield down to 1.57% from around 1.6% earlier in the day.

Main European markets gained 0.2%-0.5%. Euro zone GDP expanded by 0.2% in the second quarter, after a 0.4% expansion in the first three months of the year.

Brent crude rose 52 cents, or 0.9%, tot $61.47 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 22 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $56.52.

For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 both gained 1.5% while the Nasdaq climbed 1.8%.

Data released yesterday showed China's August exports fell 1% on-year, as against estimate of a 2% rise. Earlier, on Friday, the Chinese central bank said the reserve requirement ratio would be cut by 50 basis points and it would further reduce that ratio by 100 basis points for some qualified banks.

AT HOME

After a positive start, benchmark indices saw a sustained northward move through the session to end higher by nine tenth of a percent, with Nifty extending the winning streak to third straight day. Sensex added 337 points to settle at 36981 while Nifty added 98 points to finish at 10946. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Except  0.7% and 0.2% lower Realty and FMCG indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Auto and Power indices leading the tally, up 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 957 cr and 375 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 309. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1207 cr.

Rupee appreciated 12 paise to end at 71.12/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty lost 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that 10980 continues to be immediate hurdle while 10746, the low made Wednesday, continues to be immediate support.

On Friday, Nifty surged to touch a high of 10957 before closing at 10946 and is set to open modestly higher today.

10980 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required to generate a "Buy" on the hourly chart. If that happens, 11140-11200 would be the next target zone.

Meanwhile 10816, the low made Thursday, is the immediate support below which, 10746, the low made last week, would be next support to eye.

Friday, September 6, 2019

10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10746 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


10980 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10746 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 1.3%-1.8% and treasury yield jumped after the U.S. and China agreed to meet next month in Washington to discuss trade and economic data came in better-than-expected.

Data from ADP and Moody's Analytics showed private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 195,000, beating expected figure of 140,000. The Institute for Supply Management said the U.S. services sector expanded at a faster-than-expected rate last month.

Brent crude gained 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $60.86 a barrel. WTI crude added 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $56.30 a barrel.

Gold slumped more than 2% and silver shed 4% on account of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and hopes of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war.

European markets, except 0.6% lower FTSE, gained 0.8%-1.5%.

AT HOME

After a choppy session, Nifty ended little changed while Sensex lost a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 36644, down 80 points while Nifty finished at 10847, up 3 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and Metal indices climbed 2.5% and 2.4% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Finance indices were the top losers, down 1.8% and 1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 561 cr and 955 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 232 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 699 cr.

Rupee appreciated 27 paise to end at 71.84/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.1%-0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that immediate hurdle on the hourly chart was placed around 10980 while 10746, the low made Wednesday, was the immediate support below which 10637, the bottom made in August, would be the crucial support to eye.

Nifty, after touching a high of 10920, slipped to end at 10847 and is set to open modestly higher today.

10980 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required to generate a "buy" on the hourly chart. If that happens, 11140-11200 would be the next target zone.

10746, the low made Wednesday, continues to be immediate support upon breach of which, 10637, the bottom made in August, would be the crucial support to eye.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

10637 BELOW 10746; 10980 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE


10637 BELOW 10746; 10980 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 1%-1.3% as tensions in Hong Kong between the government and protesters eased after the withdrawal of a controversial bill. Gains in banking and technology stocks and economic data from China also helped the gains.

Bank stocks got a boost as the U.S. yield curve uninverted, with the 10-year rate trading above its 2-year counterpart.

Hang Seng surged 4% after Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said that she will withdraw a contentious extradition bill that has sparked months of mass protests.

Data earlier showed China’s Caixin/Markit Services PMI came in at 52.1 in August — its highest reading since May, despite broader economic headwinds.

Sentiment also got a boost after New York Fed President said in a speech the central bank will act as appropriate to sustain the current economic expansion.

Brent crude surged 4.14%, to $60.66 a barrel, while U.S. West WTI crude rose 4.3%, to $56.26.

European markets rose 0.6%-1.6% after British lawmakers defeated Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government in a vote to seize control of parliamentary business, moving closer to blocking a no-deal Brexit.

AT HOME

After falling about half a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices reverse the losses to end higher by four tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 36724, up 161 points while Nifty added 46 points to finish at 10844. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Telecom and Metal indices soared 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto and Consumer Durable indices were the top losers, down 1.7% and 1.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1738 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1039 cr and 76 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1305 cr.

Rupee appreciated 28 paise to end at 72.11/$.

Maruti shares plunged 3.6% after announcing no-production days at Gurugram and Manesar plants on 7th and 9th September. Sun Pharma tumbled 2.9% after SEBI ordered a forensic audit against the company.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and and Shanghai are trading with gains of 1.7% and 0.9% respectively while Hang Seng is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

After Nifty achieved 10800 target, we had given next downside target of 10637 in yesterday's report. Nifty, after touching a low of 10746, reversed to end at 10844.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart is placed around 10980.

10746, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support, upon breach of which 10637, the bottom made in August, would be the crucial support to eye.

Meanwhile, positional shorts can be held on to with the stop-loss of 10980.