NIFTY RETREATS FROM THE RESISTANCE ZONE; 14350, 14250 ARE SUPPORTS

 

NIFTY RETREATS FROM THE RESISTANCE ZONE; 14350, 14250 ARE SUPPORTS

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.1%-0.5% on Friday amid strong earnings from blue-chip companies as well as solid data signaling a snapback in the economy.

 

Morgan Stanley posted stronger-than-expected earnings, bolstered by strong trading and investment banking results.

 

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to a one-year high of 86.5 in the first half of this month from 84.9 in March.

 

Brent crude settled 0.24% lower at $66.77 per barrel while WTI crude slid 0.5% to settle at $63.13 per barrel.

 

US 10-year treasury note rose to 1.587% while that on the 30-year bond climbed to 2.275%. Dollar index eased 0.111% to 91.561, its lowest since March 18. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $1,778.04 per ounce, hitting a seven-week high.

 

European markets rose 0.5%-1.3%. Eurozone inflation rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, driven primarily by services and energy.

 

China's first-quarter gross domestic product and March industrial production missed expectations, though GDP grew by a record 18.3%, while March retail sales topped projections.

 

For the week, US indices gained 1.1%-1.4%, with the S&P 500 and the Dow posting their fourth straight positive week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq registered gains for three weeks in a row. In Europe, FTSE and DAX gained 1.5% each while CAC rose 1.9%. In Asia, Hang Seng rose 0.9% while Nikkei, Shanghai and Nifty fell 0.3%, 0.7% and 1.5% respectively.

 

Crude oil surged nearly 6% for the week. Gold rose 1.9% to $1777, hitting a seven-week high and registering best week since mid-December.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising around eight tenth of a percent, Sensex and Nifty lost most of the gains in last hour plunge to end higher by 0.1% and 0.25% respectively, extending the winning streak to third straight day. Sensex settled at 48832, up 28 points while Nifty added 36 points to finish at 14617. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however climbed 1% and 1.1% respectively. BSE Healthcare index jumped 1.9%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.3% higher Utilities, Consumer Durables and Power indices. Bankex was the top loser, down 0.5%, followed by 0.4% lower Capital Goods and Realty indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 438 cr, 55 cr and 1049 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 658 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 57 paise to end at 74.35/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 1.5% each, extending the losing streak to second straight week.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is flat while Hang Seng and Shanghai are up nearly half a percent each. SGX Nifty is suggesting arond 180 points lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had reiterated the view that 14652-14785, the gap created by Monday's gap-down opening, continued to be resistance zone to eye.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 14698, eased to end at 14617 and is set to open near 14450 today.

 

14353, the low made last Thursday, would be the immediate support to eye after today's gap-down opening. Below that, 14248, the bottom made last week, would be the next downside level to eye.

 

14652-14785, the gap created by last Monday's gap-down opening, continues to be resistance zone to eye.

 

31400-31000 is the immediate support zone for Banknifty, below which, 30520, the low made last week, would be the next downside level to eye. 32330, the upper end of the gap created by last Monday's gap-down opening, continues to be immediate hurdle.

 

14652-14785 CONTINUES TO BE RESISTANCE ZONE; 14353 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

14652-14785 CONTINUES TO BE RESISTANCE ZONE; 14353 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices climbed 0.9%-1.3%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing the 34,000 threshold for the first time ever, after key companies reported strong earnings and fresh economic data pointed to a rebound in consumer spending and the jobs market.

 

Retail sales jumped 9.8% in March as additional stimulus sent consumer spending soaring, topping the estimate of a 6.1% gain. Jobless claims dropped to 576000, the lowest level since March 2020 and much lower than the estimated figure of 710000.

 

Bank of America and Citi both posted strong earnings beats.

 

Brent crude gained 0.54% to settle at $66.94 per barrel per barrel, while WTI futures advanced 0.5% to $63.46 per barrel as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and others upgraded forecasts for oil demand as major economies recover from the pandemic.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell about 8 basis points to 1.548%. Spot gold rose 1.8% to $1,766.50 per ounce, scaling a more than one-month peak.

 

Main European markets rose 0.3%-0.6%. Germany’s consumer price index came in at 0.5% on a monthly basis and 1.7% year-on-year. France’s CPI inflation came in at 0.7% in March.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose half a percent each, extending the winning streak to second straight day. Sensex added 260 points to settle at 48803 while Nifty finished at 14581, up 76 points. Nifty mid-cap index inched up 0.1% while Small-cap index fell 0.2%. BSE Metal index and Bankex climbed 1.5% and 1.1% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto index was the top loser, down 1.2%, followed by 0.4% lower Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services and Realty indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 980 cr and 1309 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 805 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 527 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 12 paise to end at 74.93/$.

 

India's March exports rose 60% y-o-y and 24% MoM to $34.5 bn. Imports rose 54% Y0Y and 19% MoM to $48.4 bn. Trade deficit stood at $13.93 bn, up 40% YoY and 10.4% MoM.

 

March WPI inflation came in at 7.35% Vs 4.17% MoM.  

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading flat to marginally higher and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 14652-14785, the gap created by Monday's gap-down opening, continued to be resistance zone to eye while 14248, the bottom made Monday, continued to be important immediate support.

 

Nifty touched a high of 14597 before closing at 14581.

 

14652-14785, the gap created by Monday's gap-down opening, continues to be resistance zone to eye. 14353, the low made yesterday, would work as the immediate support, below which, 14248, the bottom made on Monday, would be the next downside level to eye.

 

14652-14785 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

 

14652-14785 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

On Tuesday, Dow fell 0.2% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.3% and 1% respectively, after digesting March inflation report and news of a halt to the rollout of Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

 

U.S. FDA said it’s recommending a pause in the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine after reported cases of blood clotting.

 

US consumer price index, rose 0.6% in March and increased 2.6% from the same period a year ago, slightly higher than expected figures of 0.5% and 2.5% respectively.

 

Yesterday, Dow rose 0.2% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.4% and 1% respectively as pressure on tech offset optimism sparked by the first round of major corporate earnings that largely exceeded expectations.

 

Goldman Sachs rose 2% after blowing past analysts’ expectations with record first-quarter net profits and revenues. JPMorgan Chase also topped forecasts on the top and bottom lines.

 

Fed Chair Powell said the central bank will reduce its monthly bond purchases before it commits to an interest rate increase.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose less than 1 basis point to 1.63%. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,736 per ounce.

 

Brent crude surged $2.91, or 4.6%, to $66.58 per barrel while WTI crude futures settled $2.97, or 4.94%, higher at $63.15 per barrel after a report from the International Energy Agency, followed by U.S. inventory data boosted optimism about returning demand for crude. U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts for a 2.9 million-barrel drop. A report from International Energy Agency predicted global oil demand and supply were set to rebalance in the second half of the year and added that producers may then need to pump an additional 2 million bpd to meet the expected demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday raised its global demand forecast by 70,000 bpd from last month’s forecast and now expects global demand to rise by 5.95 million bpd in 2021.

 

In Europe, FTSE and CAC rose 0.7% and 0.4% respectively while DAX fell 0.2%. the European Commission announced a new deal with Pfizer and BioNTech to deliver 50 million additional doses of their shot in the second quarter. Euro zone industrial production fell 1% in February from the previous month, as against expectation of a 1.1% decline.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices surged 1.4% each, recouping nearly 40% of yesterday's mammoth losses. Sensex added 660 points to settle at 48544 while Nifty finished at 14504, up 194 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. Except 2.6% and 2% lower IT and Teck indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended higher, with Auto and Metal indices leading the tally, up 4.3% and 3.5% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 731 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1995 cr and 1304 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 244 cr.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.3% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading Around 14650, suggesting around 100 points higher start when compared to Tuesday's close of Nifty futures.

 

In Tuesday's report we had said that 14248, the low made Monday, coincided with the downward sloping trnedline adjoining bottoms made on 26th February and 19th March and also roughly coincided with the 14264 bottom made in March making it an immediate support. We had also said that 14652-14785, the gap created by Monday's gap-down opening, would act as the resistance zone.

 

Nifty surged to touch a high of 14529 before closing at 14504. The benchmark is set to open near 14600 today.

 

14652-14785, the gap created by Monday's gap-down opening, continues to be resistance zone to eye.

 

14248, the bottom made Monday, continues to be important immediate support.

 

14000 BELOW 14248; 14652-14785 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

 

14000 BELOW 14248; 14652-14785 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and Nasdaq fell 0.2% and 0.4% respectively while S & P 500 ended flat ahead of a highly anticipated inflation report set for release before Tuesday’s opening bell.

 

Fed Chair Powell, in a media interaction on Sunday, said that it was “highly unlikely” that the Fed would raise interest rates “anything like this year.” Also Powell on Sunday and Biden administration economists on Monday stressed that while they expect a jump in inflation in the months ahead, the change could prove temporary due to comparisons with last year’s pandemic lockdowns and extra consumer spending from stimulus checks and pent-up demand.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 1.671%. The dollar index fell 0.04% to 92.164. Spot gold fell 0.6 % to $1,732.14 per ounce.

 

Brent crude rose 0.4% to above $63 a barrel while WTI rose 0.5% to settle at $59.70 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.4% while DAX and CAC eased 0.1% each. Euro zone retail sales in February rose 3% from a month earlier, beating expectations.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty nosedived 3.5% each, suffering the worst fall after 26th February and closing at the lowest level since 29th January and 1st February respectively. Sensex settled at 47883, down 1707 points while Nifty lost 524 points to finish at 14310. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices nosedived 5.6% each. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Realty and Industrials indices leading the losses, down 7.7% and 5.9% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1746 cr, 1740 cr and 398 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 233 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 32 paise to end at 75.06/$.

 

March CPI came in at 5.52%, up from 5.03% MoM. February IIP contracted 3.6%, as against contraction of 0.9% in January.

 

TCS reported good set of numbers. Dollar revenue grew 5% q-o-q and constant currency revenue growth stood at 4.2%. EBITDA margin improved 20 bps to 26.8%, hitting 22 quarter high. Order win stood at record $9.2 bn.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are up 1% each while Shanghai is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 14670 was the immediate support, below which, 14460, the bottom made last week, would be the next downside level to eye.

 

Nifty opened below 14670 support and plunged all the way to 14248 before closing at 14310.

 

14248, the low made yesterday, coincides with the downward sloping trendline adjoining bottoms made on 26th February and 19th March and also roughly coincides with the 14264 bottom made in March. This makes 14248 immediate support, upon breach of which, 14050-14000 would be the next support zone.

 

14652-14785, the gap created by yesterday's gap-down opening, would act as the resistance zone.

 

14670 IS THE SUPPORT; 14984 HURDLE

 

14670 IS THE SUPPORT; 14984 HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices gained 0.5%-0.9% on Friday, with Dow and S & P 500 hitting record highs, amid rising reopening optimism.

 

March PPI showed a rise of 1.0%, compared with a projected increase of 0.4%.

 

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked slightly higher to 1.66%. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,744 per ounce.

 

Brent future fell 25 cents to settle at $62.95 a barrel while WTI crude settled 28 cents, or 0.5%, lower at $59.32 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.4%, while DAX and CAC rose 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. German industrial output in February fell 1.6% from the previous month, which was well below a consensus forecast of a 1.5% rise.

 

For the week, US indices gained 2%-3.1%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended lower by three tenth of a percent, snapping 3-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 49591, down 155 points while Nifty lost 39 points to finish at 14834. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, extending the winning streak to fourth straight day. BSE Metal and Power indices slipped 1.1% each, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare index surged 2.3%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.9% higher FMCG index.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 654 cr, 639 cr and 666 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 271 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 74.73/$, extending the losing streak to fifth straight day and hitting an eight-month low.

 

For the week, Sesnex and Nifty fell 0.9% and 0.2% respectively.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 150 points lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 15051 and 15336, the tops made on 16th March and 12th March respectively, continued to be next upside levels to eye and had advised holding on to long positions with the stop-loss of 14740.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 14785, closed at 14834. The benchmark is set to open near 14700 today.

 

14670, around which a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the hourly chart is placed, would be the support to eye after today’s gap-down opening. If 14670 also gives way, 14460, the bottom made last week, would be the next downside level to eye.

 

14984, the top made last week, would work as immediate hurdle.

 

TCS will report its quarterly earnings today.

 

March CPI and February IIP data will be released today.

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 14740

 

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 14740

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Nasdaq surged 1% while S & P 500 and Dow rose 0.4% and 0.2% respectively as technology stock climbed.

 

Jobless claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000.

 

Fed Chair Powell, in a virtual event presented by the International Monetary Fund, called the recovery from the pandemic “uneven”, signaling a more robust recovery is needed. He also said that the rise in inflation this year was likely to prove temporary.

 

10-year treasury yield eased to 1.61%. Dollar index fell 0.35% to 92.091, its lowest since March 23. Spot gold rose 1.11% to $1,756.56 per ounce.

 

Brent crude eased 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $62.70 a barrel while U.S. oil settled 17 cents, or 0.28%, lower at $59.60 per barrel.

 

European markets gained 0.2%-0.8%. German industrial orders rose in February on the back of strong domestic demand.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising more than a percent, benchmark indices gave away most of the gains in late noon plunge to end just modestly higher. Sensex settled at 49746, up 84 points while Nifty added 54 points to finish at 14873. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. BSE Metal and Basic Materials indices soared 4.4% and 3% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Power index was the top loser, down 1%, followed by 0.6% lower Utilities index and Bankex.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 111 cr and 262 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 56 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 553 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 11 paise to end at 74.58/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.6% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are off 0.6% each. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 14883, the top made last week, continued to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 15051 would be the next upside level to eye.

 

Nifty crossed 14883 hurdle and surged all the way to 14984, but eased from there to end at 14873.

 

15051 and 15336, the tops made on 16th March and 12th March respectively, continue to be next upside levels to eye.

 

14740 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

15051 ABOVE 14883; 14460 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

15051 ABOVE 14883; 14460 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 ended marginally higher while Nasdaq eased 0.1%

 

Fed’s latest meeting minutes showed that participants were seeing signs of an economic rebound and a pickup in inflation but still believed they were a long way from altering their interest rate policy or asset purchasing program.

 

President Biden spoke about his administration’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan that includes a corporate tax rate hike to 28% and noted that he is willing to negotiate on the proposed tax increase.

 

Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.7%, to $63.16 a barrel while WTI crude settled 44 cents, or 0.7%, higher at $59.77 per barrel.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 1.672%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 2.357%. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 92.42. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,737.01 per ounce

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.9%, CAC was flat while DAX fell 0.2%. FTSE was boosted by a weakening of the pound against the dollar and optimism over the swift progress of vaccine rollouts across the U.K.  IHS Markit’s final euro zone composite PMI came in at 53.2, up from 48.8 in February and above the 52.5 flash estimate.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose 0.9% each, extending the winning streak to second straight day. Sensex settled at 49661, up 460 points while Nifty added 135 points to finish at 14819. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.3% and 1.7% respectively. Except 0.2% lower Power index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Auto index and Bankex leading the tally, up 1.7% and 1.6% respectively

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 227 cr, 762 cr and 299 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 381 cr.

 

Rupee nosedived 112 paise to end at 74.55/$, it's lowest level in over four months.

 

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee kept repo rate unchanged at 4% while maintaining its accommodative stance. RBI maintained its FY22 GDP growth forecast at 10.5% which consists of 26.2% in Q1; 8.3% in Q2; 5.4% in Q3; and 6.2% in Q4. RBI revised the projection for CPI inflation to 5.0% in Q4: 2020-21; 5.2 % in Q1:2021-22; 5.2% in Q2; 4.4% in Q3; and 5.1% in Q4.  In order to keep borrowing costs low and support the economy’s recovery, the central bank launched a G-sec Acquisition Programme (G-SAP), committing to purchase a specified quantum of bonds in the secondary market. The first purchase worth Rs 1 lakh crore will take place in Q1FY22. Following this announcement, bonds rallied smartly with benchmark yields tumbling by about ten basis points.

 

India's IHS Markit Services PMI for March eased to 54.6 from 55.3 in February. The composite PMI too dropped to 56 from 57.3.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng is up 0.6% while Nikkei and Shanghai are off 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 50 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 14883, the top made last week, which also coincides with 34-DMA, continued to be immediate hurdle while 14460, the bottom made Monday, which is also the two-third retracement level of the recent 14264-14883 upmove, continued to be immediate support.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 14880, eased to close at 14819 and is set to open above 14850 today.

 

14883, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 15051 and 15336, the tops made on 16th March and 12th March respectively, would be the next upside levels to eye.

 

14460, the bottom made Monday, continues to be immediate support.