Tuesday, July 19, 2022

16450 ABOVE 16288; 16060 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

16450 ABOVE 16288; 16060 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After opening with gains of 1%-1.5%, US indices saw a sustained downward move through the session to end with cuts of 0.7%-0.8%

 

Goldman Sachs rose 2.5% after earnings and revenue beat estimates. Bank of America reported quarterly revenue that beat expectations.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 7 bps to 2.989%. Dollar index slipped half a percent to 107.41. Gold inched up 0.1% to $1709 per ounce.

 

Oil rose mounting concerns over gas supply from Russia and a lower dollar. Brent September futures surged 5% higher to $106.27 and WTI August futures rose 5.13% to trade at $102.60.

 

European markets gained 0.7%-0.9%

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices soared 1.4% each, notching biggest gain in nearly a month and closing at the highest level after 9th June 2022. Sensex settled at 54521, up 760 points while Nifty added 229 points to finish at 16278. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. Nifty IT and PSU Bank indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 3.2% and 2.8% respectively while Pharma and FMCG indices were the top losers, down 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 156 cr, 1395 cr and 118 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 844 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to end at 79.97/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning Nikkei is up 0.95, Shanghai is little changed while Hang Seng is down 0.6%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 120 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that If Nifty is able to take out first hour high, 16275, the top made on 8th July, would be next upside level to eye.

 

Nifty surged to touch a high of 16288 before closing at 16278. The benchmark is set to open near 16150 today.

 

Above yesterday's high, i.e. 16288, 16450, the 78.6% retracement level of the 16794-15183 fall, would be the next upside level to eye; 16060 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

35543, the top made last week, is the immediate upside level to eye for Banknifty, above which, 34-week moving average, placed around 35900, would be the bigger hurdle to eye; 34900 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

HUL, Ambuja Cement and HDFC Life will report their quarterly earnings today.

 

Monday, July 18, 2022

16275 ABOVE FIRST-HOUR HIGH; 15858 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

16275 ABOVE FIRST-HOUR HIGH; 15858 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices surged 1.8%-2.2% on Friday on hopes that the Fed would be less hawkish than feared at its upcoming policy meeting and in response to a new round of bank earnings and strong economic data.

 

Preliminary consumer sentiment and retail sales data beat expectations.

 

Citigroup soared 13.2% as quarterly profit beat estimates. Wells Fargo popped about 6.2% even as quarterly profits declined 48% and the bank set aside funds for bad loans.

 

Meanwhile, odds of a 100 bps rate hike in Fed meeting scheduled later in the month fell, after two of the most hawkish Fed officials on Thursday said they would prefer a 75 bps hike. Also, Atlanta Fed President on Friday cautioned against the central bank moving “too dramatically” because it could undermine the strong hiring and other positive trends still seen in the economy.

 

US 2-year treasury yield eased 1 bps to 3.128% while that of 10-year note fell 4 basis points to 2.921%. Dollar index fell 0.6% to 107.98. Gold fell a fifth of a percent to $1706.70 per ounce.

 

Oil prices rose after a U.S. official told Reuters that an immediate Saudi oil output boost was not expected, and as markets question whether OPEC has the room to significantly ramp up crude production. Brent crude futures were up $2.50, or 2.5%, to $101.60 a barrel while WTI crude rose $2.38, or 2.5%, to $98.16.

 

Data earlier showed China's second-quarter GDP grew 0.4% y-o-y, missing expectation of a 1% growth and marking the weakest print since the first quarter of 2020. 

 

European markets gained 1.7%-2.8%.

 

For the week, Dow slipped close to 0.2% while the S&P and Nasdaq fell 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively. In Europe, FTSE and DAX fell 0.5% and 1.2% respectively while CAC was little changed. In Asia, Nikkei inched up 0.4% while Hang Seng and Shanghai nosedived 6.6% and 3.8% respectively and Nifty was down 1.1%.

 

Dollar index, after hitting a high of 109.29, eased to end 1% higher at 107.98. Gold fell 2% for its fifth straight weekly loss. WTI and Brent crude fell 7% and 6% respectively

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose two third of a percent, snapping a 4-day losing streak. Sensex settled at 53760, up 344 points while Nifty added 110 points to finish at 16049. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.8% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Auto index climbed 2.3%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.6% higher Consumer Durables index. Metal index was the top loser, down 1%, followed by 0.2% lower IT and Utilities indices.

 

FIIs net sold stock and index futures worth Rs 1649 cr and 457 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 361 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1059 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 79.86/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 1.3% and 1% respectively, snapping a 3-week winning streak.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Nikkei is shut today while Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 140 points higher start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 20-DMA, placed around 15810, continued to be downside support to eye while 16100-16150 was the immediate resistance zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

Nifty rose to touch a high of 16066 before closing at 16049. The benchmark is set to open above 16150 today.

 

15858, the low made last week, coincided with a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the daily chart. Also 20-DMA is placed around this level, which makes 15858 important immediate support; On the way up, first hour high would be important level to eye after likely gap-up opening; If Nifty is able to take out first hour high, 16275, the top made on 8th July, would be next upside level to eye.

 

For Banknifty, 35050 is the immediate hurdle on the way up, above which, 35543, the top made last week, would be the bigger resistance to eye; 34388, the lower end of the gap created by gap-up opening on 7th July, is the downside support.

Friday, July 15, 2022

NIFTY NEARS 20-DMA

 

NIFTY NEARS 20-DMA

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After starting 2% lower on the back of disappointing bank earnings, US indices recouped most of the losses through the session to end flat to modestly lower.

 

JPMorgan Chase fell 3.5% after the bank added to reserves for bad loans and halted its share buybacks, signaling a more cautious economic outlook. Morgan Stanley slipped 0.4% on the back of a sharp decline in investment banking revenue.

 

June’s producer price index showed wholesale prices rose 11.3% versus a year ago last month as energy prices jumped.

 

US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 bps to 2.965% while 2-year yield fell 2 bps to 3.138%. Dollar index surged 0.6% to 108.64. Spot gold fell 1.47% to $1,709.66 per ounce.

 

Oil pared nearly all losses after falling more than $4 earlier in the session. Brent September futures settled down 47 cents, or 0.5% to $99.10 a barrel and WTI August future settled 0.5% lower at $95.78 a barrel.

 

European markets fell 1.4%-1.9%.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising two third of a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices saw a sustained downward move through the session to end lower by a fifth of a percent, extending the losing streak to fourth straight day. Sensex settled at 53416, down 98 points while Nifty lost 28 points to finish at 15938. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.1% and 1.1% respectively. BSE IT and Teck indices tumbled 1.4% and 1.1% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Oil & Gas and Energy indices were the top gainers, up 1.6% and 1.1% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 309 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 602 cr and 473 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 556 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 25 paise to end at 73.88/$.

 

India's June WPI inflation came in at 15.18%, down from 15.88% in the previous month. Core WPI eased to 9.2% from 10.50%.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.3% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 40 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that Nifty had confirmed a "Sell" on the hourly chart and that 20-DMA, placed around 15800 was the next downside level to eye.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 16070, slipped to 15858 before closing at 15938.

 

20-DMA, placed around 15810, continues to be downside support to eye; 16100-16150 is the immediate resistance zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

34550-34400 is the support zone for Banknifty; 35100 is immediate hurdle.

 

Thursday, July 14, 2022

15800 IS NEXT SUPPORT; 16140 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

15800 IS NEXT SUPPORT; 16140 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices, after falling a percent and half each in the initial trade on the back of hot inflation report, recovered through the session to end with cuts of 0.2%-0.7%.

 

June CPI rose 9.1% y-o-y, above the 8.8% estimate. That’s the fastest pace since November 1981. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 5.9% and above the 5.7% estimate. Meanwhile, the Fed’s “Beige Book” report found higher fears of inflation and a potential recession.

 

US 2-year treasury yield rose 11 bps to 3.16% while 10-year yield fell 3 bps to 2.937%, pushing the inversion between the two to its biggest level since 2000. Dollar index eased 0.1% to 108.02. Gold rose half a percent to $1734 per ounce.

 

Brent crude rose 8 cents to $99.57 per barrel, while WTI crude settled 46 cents higher at $96.30 per barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.7%-1.2%.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising half a percent in the initial trade, Sensex and Nifty reversed these gains to end with cuts of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight day. Sensex settled at 53514, down 372 points while Nifty lost 91 points to finish at 15966. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.2% each. BSE Power and Utilities indices tumbled 1.7% each, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Power and Utilities indices were the top losers, down 1.7% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 2840 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 566 cr and 11 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1799 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 79.63/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are up 0.6% and 0.2% respectively while Shanghai is down 0.1%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 50 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 16350 continued to be next upside level to eye for Nifty while 15900 continued to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 16140, plunged to 15950 before closing at 15966.

 

Nifty yesterday confirmed a "Sell" on the hourly chart and 20-DMA, placed around 15800 is the next downside level to eye; 16140, the top made yesterday, would act as immediate hurlde above which 16275, the top made last week, would be next resistance.

 

For Banknifty, below yesterday's low of 34760, 34550-34400 would be the next support zone; 35543, the top made Monday, is immediate hurdle.

 

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

15900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

15900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After witnessing a see-saw trade for better part of the day, US indices slipped in late trade to end lower by 0.6%-1%.

 

US 2-year treasury yield dropped more than 2 bps to 3.045% but remained above the 10-year yield, which dropped 2 bps to 2.951%. Dollar index was flat at 108.16. Euro hit parity with US Dollar after two decades. Spot gold fell half a percent to $1,725.33 per ounce, hitting its lowest level in 9-months.

 

Oil tumbled on a strong dollar, fresh covid curbs in China and fears of a global economic slowdown. Brent crude futures fell 7.1% to $99.49 and WTI crude settled 7.9% lower at $95.84 per barrel.

 

European markets gained 0.2%-0.8%. German ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -53.8 points in July from -28 last month.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices tumbled a percent, marking the biggest fall in 3-weeks. Sensex settled at 53886, down 508 points while Nifty lost 157 points to finish at 16058. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.4% each, snapping 4-day winning streak. BSE IT index was the top loser among the sectoral indices, down 1.3%, followed by 1.2% lower Teck and Metal indices. Utilities index was the top gainer, up 1.3%, followed by 1.2% higher Telecom and Power indices.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1565 cr, 2815 cr and 1124 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 141 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 79.59/$.

 

India's June CPI inflation came in at 7.01%, a tad lower than previous month's 7.04%. Core CPI stood at 6% as against 6.1%. May IIP rose 19.6% Vs 7.1% month-on-month.

 

HCL Tech reported mixed set of results with in-line revenue but sharper margin contraction.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are modestly higher while Shanghai is marginally in the red. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 40 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 16350 continued to be next upside level to eye for Nifty while 15900 continued to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

Nifty touched a low of 16031 before closing at 16058.

 

16350 continues to be next upside level to eye for Nifty; 15900 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

35950-361000 is the upside target zone for Banknfity; 34700 continues to be immediate support.

 

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

16350, 16450 ARE UPSIDE LEVELS TO EYE; 15900 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

16350, 16450 ARE UPSIDE LEVELS TO EYE; 15900 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.5%-2.3%, with the Nasdaq snapping a 5-day winnin streak, as Wall Street braced for company earnings reports scheduled for later in the week.

 

US 10-year treasury yield fell 8 bps to 2.998% while 2-year yield fell 4 bps to 3.078%. Dollar index jumped 1.2% to 108.21. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,737.32 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures inched up 0.1% to $107.10 per barrel, while WTI crude settled 0.7% lower at $104.09 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE was falt while DAX and CAC slipped 1.4% and 0.6% respectively.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling nearly two third of a percent in the first half, benchmark indices recouped most of the losses in noon trade to end marginally in the red. Sensex settled at 54395, down 86 points while Nifty lost 5 points to finish at 16216. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.9% each. BSE Utilities and Power indices soared 4.2% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Teck and IT indices tumbled 3.1% and 2.7% respectively, becoming top losers.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 171 cr, 525 cr and 560 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 297 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 19 paise to end at 79.44/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-1.7% with Nikkei leading the losses. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 100 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 16350 continued to be next upside level to eye while 15900 continued to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 16115, rebounded to end at 16216 and is set to open below 16150 today.

 

16350 continues to be next upside level to eye for Nifty above which, 16450 would be next target; 15900 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

35950-361000 is the upside target zone for Banknfity; Immediate support on hourly chart has moved up to 34700.

 

HCL Tech will report its quarterly earnings today.

 

 

Monday, July 11, 2022

16350, 16450 ARE UPSIDE LEVELS TO EYE; 15900 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

16350, 16450 ARE UPSIDE LEVELS TO EYE; 15900 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 ended marginally in the red while Nasdaq inched up 0.1% on Friday following a stronger-than-expected jobs report that will likely keep the Federal Reserve on track for its aggressive rate hikes.

 

June Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000, better than the 250,000 estimate. The unemployment rate was 3.6%, which was unchanged from May.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 8 bps to 3.084%. Dollar index, after touching a high of 107.78, reversed to end 0.1% lower at 106.89. Gold inched up 0.1% to $1742 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures rose $2.37, or 2.3%, to settle at $107.02 a barrel and WTI crude rose $2.06, or 2%, to $104.79 a barrel.

 

European markets gained 0.1%-1.3%

 

For the week, Nasdaq and S & P 500 climbed 4.6% and 1.9% respectively while Dow inched up 0.8%. Brent posted a weekly decline of about 4.1% and WTI a loss of 3.4%. Gold plunged 3.8% for its fourth straight weekly dip.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose nearly half a percent, extending the winning streak to third straight day and closing at the highest level after 9th June. Sensex settled at 54481, up 303 points while Nifty added 87 points to finish at 16220. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.3% each. BSE Capital Goods and Power indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, rising 2.2% and 1.7% respectively while Metal index slipped 1%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.1% lower Basic Materials and Telecom indices.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 109 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 743 cr and 892 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 35 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 7 paise to end at 79.25/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty rose 3% each, extending the winning streak to third consecutive week.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 1.3% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 2% and 1% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 90 points lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 16350 was the next upside level to eye and had advised trailing the stop-loss in long positions to 15900.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 16275, ended at 16220. The benchmark is set to open near 16150 today.

 

16350 continues to be next upside level to eye for Nifty above which, 16450 would be next target; 15900 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 35958, the top made in June, is the immediate upside target/resistance; 34200 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.