Wednesday, July 2, 2014

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 02.07.2014

WORLD EQUITIES CHEER POSITIVE US, CHINESE DATA; NIFTY ON TRACK FOR 7800

WORLD MARKETS

US indices surged between 0.7%-1.2% with the Dow and S&P 500 briefly rising to all-time highs following upbeat economic data.

Markit's gauge of U.S. manufacturing activity in June hit a four-year high while auto sales raced to their highest level in more than eight years last month.  Another data had Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index coming in at 55.3 in June, nearly unchanged from May's 55.4 reading. New orders rose to a six-month high.

Sentiment was also boosted by China's official PMI for June, which came in at a six-month high of 51, in line with expectations and up from 50.8 in May.

European markets gained in the vicinity of a percent. Eurozone manufacturing PMI for June came in at 51.8, below an earlier estimate of 51.9 and touching a seven-month low, in a further sign that the region's stuttering recovery is losing momentum. The euro zone's unemployment rate, meanwhile, held steady in May, at 11.6 percent.

Gold rose 0.5% to $1328 an ounce; Nymex crude erased gains, losing 4 cents to finish at $105.4 a barrel.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by about a third of a percent after a rangebound trading session with Nifty closing at the highest level since 12th June. Sensex gained 103 points to settle at 25516 while Nifty finished at 7635, up 23 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 1.2% respectively. BSE Auto and Metal indices surged 3.2% and 2% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices lost 0.9% and 0.6% respectively.

India's HSBC manufacturing PMI rose marginally to 51.5 in June from 51.4 in May, marking a 4 month high.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 856 cr and 664 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 47 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 775 cr.

Rupee appreciated 10 paise to close at 60.07/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains in the vicinity of half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 45 points higher opening for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that Nifty had broken out of a descending channel formation and had also regained a higher-top higher-bottom formation on the daily chart. We had also mentioned that 7700, the all-time high made last month, is the immediate target on the way up, above which 7800-7850 would be the next target zone.

The benchmark gained 23 points yesterday to close at 7635 and is set to open about 45 points higher today, moving closer to the first target of 7700 mentioned above.


Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed at 7560, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

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