TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8730

TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 8730

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.3% and 0.2% respectively on the back of stronger oil and JPMorgan Chase earnings while Nasdaq lost 0.2%.

Nymex oil surged $1.38 to $53.29 a barrel after a forecasted decline in U.S. shale output and continued tensions in Yemen.

Retail sales showed an increase of 0.9%, slightly below expectations of a 1.1% increase. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an increase of 0.2% in March, in line with expectations and breaking four consecutive months of declines.  U.S. small business confidence fell in March as hiring and capital spending plans weakened, adding to signs that economic growth braked sharply in the first quarter.

European markets, except a 0.2% higher FTSE, lost 0.7%-1.4%

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by six tenth of a percent, closing at the highest level since 5th March  and with Nifty extending the winning streak to seventh straight day. Sensex gained 165 points to settle at 29044 while Nifty finished at 8834, up 54 points.  BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.8% respectively. Except a 0.6% and 0.2% cut in BSE Auto and Realty indices respectively, all the sectoral indices ended in green with Consumer Durable and Healthcare indices leading the tally, putting on 1.6% and 1.5% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 417 cr and 106 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 166 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 46 cr.

Rupee depreciated 20 paise to end at 62.50/$.

Data released on Monday showed retail inflation, as measured by the CPI, slowed to 5.17% from 5.37% in February.

ACC reported better-than-estimated earnings. The 10% contraction in sales volumes was more than offset by 11.5% increase in net realization. Operating margin at 14.3% was around 200 bps higher than a year back. Operating profit rose by 13.2%. Net profit was 41% lower than the year-ago period. But, after adjustments, especially for one-time provisions or expenses, the net profit was in line with a year back and marginally better than forecast.

OUTLOOK

China's GDP rose 7% in the first quarter, slowing from 7.3% in the fourth quarter, but above the estimate of 6.9%. The industrial output rose 5.6% in March, slowing from 6.8% growth in the combined January-February period and estimates of 6.9% growth.

Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and  SGX Nifty is trading at 8840, suggesting about 15 points lower start compared to Monday's close of 8855 of Nifty future.

Ever since Nifty crossed immediate hurdle of 8510 on 31st March, we had been working with the targets of 8700 and 8800 which were the 34 DMA and 61.8% retracement levels of the 9119-8269 fall respectively.

The benchmark on Monday touched a high of 8842 before closing at 8834, achieving the 8800 target and vindicating our view.

A crossover of 8842, the high made on Monday, would mark a fresh berakout on the daily chart and would pave the way for the retest of the 9119 top.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8730, with the stop loss of which existing longs should be held on to.

WPI for March would be released today and is expected to show a reading of -2.07% as against -2.06% in February.