NIFTY MOVES TOWARDS 7980 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7890

NIFTY MOVES TOWARDS 7980 TARGET; TRAIL STOP LOSS TO 7890

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.9%-1.1% on last day of calendar 2015 in light volume trade.

Nymex oil rose 44 cents or 1.2% to $37.04 a barrel. Brent. The U.S. oil drilling rig count showed a decline of 2, according to Baker Hughes.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 42.9 for December, down from 48.7 in November. Weekly jobless claims came in at 287,000, up from 267,000 the week before.

 In Europe, German and Italian markets were closed for New Year's EVE. FTSE, CAC and IBEX fell 0.5%, 0.9% and 1.1% respectively.

For 2015, S&P 500 fell 0.7% after three-straight years of double-digit gains. Dow Jones industrial average lost 2.2%. For both, this was the worst year after 2008 when S & P 500 and Dow lost 38.5% and 30% respectively. The Nasdaq composite however closed up more than 5.5% for the year.

European markets, boosted by the massive asset-buying program launched by the European Central Bank (ECB) in March, ended 2015 with gains. France gained 8.5% and Germany was up 9.5%. Without the benefits of the ECB's stimulus, the FTSE 100 closed lower on the year, down by 4.9%.

Nymex oil fell more than 30% for 2015, for its first two-year losing streak since the late 1990s. Gold lost more than 10% for the year, posting three-straight years of decline for the first time since 1998.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by six tenth of a percent on the last day of the December derivative series as well as the calendar 2015. Sensex settled at 26118, up 158 points while Nifty added 50 points to finish at 7946. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Realty and Telecom indices gained 1.5% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durable and Healthcare indices lost 0.2% each.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1123 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 630 cr and 197 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 258 cr.

Rupee appreciated 24 paise to end at 66.15/$.

For calendar 2015, Sensex and Nifty lost 5% and 4.1% respectively.

India's core sector output fell 1.3% in November, marking its worst performance in over a decade and first fall in 7 months, due to sharp fall in steel, crude oil, natural gas and cement.

Data released yesterday showed that the Centre’s fiscal deficit was ₹4,83,523 crore between April and November 2015 or 87% of the Budget estimate. Though this is higher than the 74% in the previous month, it is much lower than the corresponding period a year ago when its fiscal deficit was 99% of the Budget estimate.

OUTLOOK

Today, most of the Asian markets are shut for New Year's Day. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower opening for our market.

Ever since Nifty took out 7850 hurdle on 23rd December, we have been working with the target of 7980, the top made in early December.

The benchmark, after a correction on Wednesday, rebounded yesterday to touch a high of 7956 before closing at 7946, moving towards this target.

7980 continues to be upside target as well as the important near term hurdle to eye.

7890, the low made in the initial trade yesterday, will now act as the immediate support, which should serve as the stop loss for trading longs.