Monday, July 4, 2016

NIFTY TAKES OUT 8295 HURDLE; 8655 NEXT MAJOR TARGET

NIFTY TAKES OUT 8295 HURDLE; 8655 NEXT MAJOR TARGET

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.1%-0.4% on Friday, extending the upmove to fourth straight day.

In economic news, the final Markit June manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3, up from 50.7 in May and the highest in three months, but a touch below the initial read for June of 51.4. The ISM manufacturing came in at 53.2 for June from 51.3 the month before and above expectations of 51.4. June vehicle sales came in at a 16.7 million versus a 17.5 million in May.

US oil rose 66 cents or 1.4% to $4899 a barrel.

US 10-year Treasury yield was near touched its lowest in about for years and was around 1.44%. The 30-year Treasury yield hit an all-time low but recovered to trade near 2.22%. The British 10-year Gilt yield hit a record low of 0.779%. The Japanese 10-year note yield hit an all-time low of negative 0.251%.

The U.S. Dollar index fell about half a percent. Pound sterling was near $1.328.  Gold soared $18 to $1339 an ounce.

European markets rose 0.6%-1.3%. Euro zone unemployment in May fell to 10.1% from April's 10.2% figure.

Earlier, China's official manufacturing PMI edged fell to 50.0 in June, versus 50.1 in May. Caixin's manufacturing PMI was 48.6 reading for June, down from May's 49.2 print.

For the week, US indices gained 3.2%, marking best weekly gain for 2016 and recouping most of the post brexit vote losses. In Europe, FTSE soared 7.2%, marking the best weekly percentage gain since December 2011 and closing at nearly 11-month high. DAX and CAC gained 2.3% and 4.1% respectively. In Asia Nikkei soared 4.9% while Shanghai and Hang Seng rose 2.7% each.

AT HOME

Bull March extended to fifth straight day as benchmark indices gained half a percent on Friday with Sensex and Nifty closing at the highest level since 27th October and 20th August respectively. Sensex added 145 points to settle at 27145 while Nifty finished at 8328, up 41 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. Except a 0.4% and 0.2% cut in BSE IT and Teck indices respectively, all the sectoral indices closed in green with Oil & Gas and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 2.8% and 2.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 188 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 254 cr and 19 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 907 cr.

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 67.32/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 2.8% and 3% respectively.

India's Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in June from May's 50.7, its sixth month above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

Auto companies reported June sales data which was a mixed bag. Martui was a disappointment with a y-o-y decline of 13.9% at 98840 units. On the other hand Escorts reported highest ever tractor sale since November 2014, up 11.3% y-o-y. Eicher reported 18.5% growth in commercial vehicles and 36% uptick in Royal Enfield sale. TVS reported 11% jump at 2.47 lac units, the highest in 2016 while Hero MotoCorp saw lowest monthly sale of 2016 at 5.49 lac units, a growth of 1.3%. Tata Motors reported 8% growth at 44276 units. Ashok Leyland showed 7% growth at 11108 vehicles and M & M registered 8% growth in auto and 20% in tractor sales.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 35 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty crossed 8150-8188 hurdle we were working with target of 8295 and has also said that once 8295 hurdle is taken out decisively, next major target to eye would be 8655, which is the top made in last July and is also the 52-week high.

Nifty, after achieving the 8295 on Thursday, went ahead to close above it on Friday at 8328.

As mentioned above 8655 continues to be next major target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 8200 with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.


US markets will remain shut today for Independence Day holiday.

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