Monday, December 19, 2016

8120-8230 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

8120-8230 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended with cuts of upto 0.4% on Friday following geopolitical tension in the South China Sea.

Media reports suggested that a Chinese Navy warship has seized an underwater drone deployed by an American oceanographic vessel in international waters in the South China Sea, triggering a formal diplomatic protest from the United States and a demand for its return.

Following the news, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, gold prices climbed, and the yen strengthened against the dollar in a safe-haven trade. US 10-year yield fell from about 2.62% to 2.56%. Dollar index eased to 102.80 from 103.10. Gold rose $8 to $1135 an ounce.

U.S. crude oil futures settled up $1.00 at $51.90 a barrel after Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for 2017 and producers showed signs of keeping to the global deal to cut production levels. The weekly U.S. oil rig count rose 12 from last week to 510, according to Baker Hughes.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said the Fed will need more than three rate hikes in 2017.St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that after the election, the economy has more upside risk, while it will take a while for the new political landscape to alter the outlook.

In economic data, Housing starts fell a more-than-expected 18.7% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units. Building permits declined 4.7%.

European markets added 0.1%-0.7%. Basic resources ended the trading day among the worst performing European sectors after Chinese iron ore futures dropped more than 2% on Friday as steel prices lost ground in afternoon trading, with steel mills holding off on buying the raw material in the physical market after recent rapid gains. The German Ifo Institute raised its economic forecast for 2018 growth in the country to 1.7%, from a previous estimate of 1.6%.

For the week, Dow rose 0.4%, extending the winning streak to sixth straight week. S & P 500 and Nasdaq however lost 0.1% each. European markets added 0.8%-1.8%. In Asia, Nikkei added 2.1%, rising for the sixth straight week but Shanghai and Hang Seng tumbled 3.4% and 3.2% respectively.
                                                             
AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended modestly lower after a rangebound session, extending the losing streak to third straight day. Sensex lost 30 points to settle at 26490 while Nifty finished at 8139, down 14 points. BE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.04% and 0.25% respectively. BSE Metal and Telecom indices tumbled 1.6% and 1.2% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durable and IT indices gained 0.6% each, becoming top gainers.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 90 cr, 504 cr and 149 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 30 cr.

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to end at 67.76/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty lost 1% and 1.5% respectively.

Oil marketing companies hiked petrol and diesel prices by Rs 2.21 and 1.79 per litre on Friday.

OUTLOOK

Japan's November exports fell 0.4% y-o-y, compared to expectation of a 2% decline, boosted by a weaker yen and recovery in overseas demand. Imports fell 8.8%, also better than the forecast of a 12.6% decline. The trade surplus stood at 153 billion yen ($1.3 billion), narrower than a surplus of ¥227 billion expected.

Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points lower start for our market.

After today's lower start, Nifty would be back in the vicinity of 8120 bottom made last week, where it had found a floor in the form of 20-DMA. If this level is taken out, 8057, the bottom made on 5th December, which is also the immediate previous bottom on the daily chart, would be the next downside target to eye.

8230, where Nifty was resisted twice last week, is the immediate hurdle on the way up, upon which 8275, the top in the December so far, would be the next resistance.


This makes 8120-8230 immediate range, a breach of which, on either side, is required for taking fresh directional view.

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