OIL TUMBLES, YIELDS RISE; EXIT POLLS IN FOCUS AT HOME

OIL TUMBLES, YIELDS RISE; EXIT POLLS IN FOCUS AT HOME

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight day, amid sharp fall in oil and strong employment data. Nasdaq managed to end 0.1% higher.

US crude fell 5.4% to $50.28, posting its worst single-day fall in 13 months, and Brent plunged 5% to $53.11 a barrel after U.S. crude inventories surged to a record high at an increase of 8.2 million barrels last week, compared with the consensus expectation for a 2 million barrels.

Data from ADP and Moody's showed private sector added 298,000 jobs last month, well above an estimate of 190,000. Fourth-quarter productivity remained unrevised at a gain of 1.3%. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2%, more than expected.

Treasury yield rose following the ADP data, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 2.556%, hitting its highest level since December and the two-year note yield reaching 1.354%, levels not seen since 2009. Dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.12.

Earlier China unexpectedly posted its first trade deficit in three years for February, as a construction boom pushed imports up 38.1% in dollar-denominated terms as exports fell 1.3%.

European markets, except a marginally lower FTSE, ended modestly higher.

AT HOME

After a flattish start, benchmark indices fell about six tenth of a percent in the morning session but recouped half of the losses later to end lower by about three tenth of a percent, extending the losing streak to second straight day. Sensex lost 98 points to settle at 28902 while Nifty finished at 8924, down 23 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Metal and Realty indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, giving away 1.9% and 1.4% respectively while Healthcare index and Bankex were the top gainers, up 0.2% each.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 3573 cr which included Rs 2274 on account of Kotak Mahindra deal. They net bought index futures worth Rs 292 cr but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1200 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1735 cr.

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 66.70/$.

OUTLOOK

China's February CPI is up 7.8% as against expectation of 7.7%, marking the fastest pace since September 2008. CPI is up 0.8% as against expectation of 1.7%.

Except a 0.3% higher Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.4%-0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

As we have been mentioning 8970-8860 is the immediate range, a decisive crossover of which, on either side, is required for taking a fresh directional view.

That continues to be the view. Upon decisive crossover of 8970, next target to eye would be 9119, the top made in March 2015. Below 8860, 34-DMA, placed around 8760, would be the downside target.

All eyes will be on the exit polls for the assembly elections held in five states including UP, that will be released at 5.30 pm today.

Second half of the budget session of Parliament begins today.