10420 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10320

10420 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10320

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.4%-0.9% as geopolitical worries over Syria intensified.

President Trump tweeted that Russia should "get ready" for a potential strike on Syria. This came after a likely chemical weapons attack over the weekend on a rebel-held town in the eastern Ghouta region of Syria.

WTI crude rose $1.31 or 2% to $66.70, its highest level since December 2014. Brent gained 96 cents or 1.4% to $72 a barrel.

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's March meeting reflected that "all" members of the committee see the U.S. economy growing at a strong pace. They also see inflation climbing, which would justify more rate hikes.

European markets fell 0.1%-0.8% with DAX leading the losses.

AT HOME

After falling about half a percent in the first hour, benchmark indices recouped all the losses and more through rest of the session to end with modest gains, extending the winning streak to fifth straight day. Sensex added 60 points to settle at 33940 while Nifty finished at 10417, up 15 points. BSE small-cap index rose 0.2% but mid-cap index fell 0.2%. BSE Metal and IT indices rose 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top gainers among sectoral indices while Oil & Gas index plunged 2.2%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.7% lower Bankex.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 362 cr and 620 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 201 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 112 cr.

Rupee depreciated 32 paise to end at 65.31/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is up half a percent but Nikkei and Shanghai SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

As we have been mentioning 10420, the 38.2% retracement level of the entire 11171-9951 fall, is the immediate hurdle, a decisive crossover of which, is required for a fresh upmove. Also, you have 20-week moving average at 10440. This makes 10420-10440 an important resistance area and Nifty has been taking resistance in this zone for past two sessions.

Next leg of upmove will open up once this resistance zone is taken out. 10480, the top made in mid-March, would be the next target if that happens, followed by 10560, which is the 50% retracement level of the 11171-9951 fall.

Meanwhile, immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10320, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

CPI for March will be released today and is expected to show a print of 4.2%, down from previous month's 4.4% read. IIP for February will also be out today and is expected to show a growth of 6.8% as against 7.5% uptick registered in January.