19371, 20071 NEXT; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 18850

 

19371, 20071 NEXT; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 18850

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices climbed 0.8%-1.4% on Friday as inflation showed signs of cooling and technology stocks surged with Apple galloping to a $3 trillion market valuation for the first time.

 

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) gained 0.1% for May after a 0.4% rise in April while advancing 3.8% on an annual basis, slowing from a revised 4.3% the prior month. Consumer spending ticked up 0.1% in May while data for the prior month was revised down to 0.6% versus the previously reported 0.8%.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield was unchanged at 3.843%. Dollar index fell 0.4% to 102.92. Gold rose 0.6% to $1919 per ounce.

 

Brent futures rose 0.8% to $74.90 and WTI crude rose 1.1% to $70.64 a barrel.

 

European markets gained 0.8%-1.3%. Euro zone inflation for June came in lower-than-expected at 5.5%, down from 6.1% in May. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, however rose to 5.4% from 5.3%.  Britain’s economy grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter.

 

China’s factory activity shrunk for a third consecutive month in June. Japan's core consumer price index remained at levels above the central bank’s target for 13th straight months.

 

For June, S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 6.5% each, notched a fourth consecutive positive month and the fromer posting its best monthly performance since October. Dow climbed 4.6% for its best month since November.

 

Year-to-date, S&P 500 popped 15.9% for its best first half since 2019. The Nasdaq surged 31.7%, for its best first half since 1983. Dow added a modest gain of 3.8%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index ended up roughly 8.8%.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty surged 1.3% and 1.1% respectively, posting their biggest percentage jump in 3-months and hit fresh record highs. Sensex settled at 64718, up 803 points while Nifty added 217 points to finish at 19189. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, with the former hitting fresh record highs. Except a marginally lower Metal index, all the NSE sectoral indices ended higher, with IT index on the top, up 2.5%, followed by 2.1% higher Auto and PSU Bank indices.

 

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 82.04/$.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 6397 cr, 1540 cr and 1037 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1198 cr.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 2.8% each for their biggest weekly rise since the week ended 22nd July 2022.

 

For the month, Sensex and Nifty gained 2.1% and 3.5% respectively, extending the winning streak to fourth consecutive month. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 5.9% and 6.6% respectively. For the first half of calendar 2023, Sensex and Nifty gained 5% and 6% respectively. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 13.5% and 11.4% respectively.

 

GST mop-up surged to 1.61 lac cr. in June, a rise of 12% Y-o-Y.

 

India's core sector growth in May stood at 4.3%, unchanged from April.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.5%-1.6% and GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 90 points higher start when compared to Friday's close of Nifty futures.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 19100-19150 was the next target area for Nifty while 18800 was the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty surged to touch a high of 19201 before closing at 19189 and is set to open near 19250 today.

 

19378, followed by 20071 are the next Fibonacci extension levels and hence next upside targets to eye. On the way down, 18850 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 45500, around which an upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in October 2021 and December 2022 is placed, is the next big target/resistance to eye; 44000 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.