19160 IS NEXT SUPPORT; 19452 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

19160 IS NEXT SUPPORT; 19452 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.5% and 0.2% respectively, snapping a 4-day winning streak, while Nasdaq inched up 0.1%, extending the winning streak to fifth straight session.

 

The core personal consumption expenditures index increased 0.2% over the month in July and 4.2% y-o-y, matching estimates.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield inched up 1 bps to 4.11%. Dollar index rose 0.4% to 103.63. Gold eased 0.1% to $1940 per ounce,

 

WTI crude futures for October settled at $83.63 a barrel, up 2.4%. Brent October futures finished up 1.2%, at $86.86 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE and CAC fell 0.5% and 0.6% respectively but DAX rose 0.4%. Euro zone preliminary inflation came in higher than expected for August, remaining unchanged from July at 5.3%.

China’s factory activity contracted for a fifth straight month in August.

 

For the month, U.S. indices fell 1.8%-2.4%.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty fell 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, snapping a 3-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 64831, down 255 points while Nifty lost 93 points to finish at 19253. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, extending the winning streak to fourth straight day and hitting fresh record highs. Nifty PSU Bank and FMCG indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, down 1.3% and 0.8% respectively while Consumer Durables and Realty indices were the top gainers, up 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 2973 cr, 2490 cr and 4719 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 4383 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 5 paise to end at 82.79/$.

 

India's first quarter GDP grew at 7.8%, slightly below RBI's estimate of 8%. Agri growth disappointed at 3.5%, while growth in services sector remained below pre-covid level. Growth in private consumption and capital formation were positive.

 

July eight core industries' growth came in at 8% Vs 8.3% month-on-month.

 

For the first quarter of fiscal 24, India's fiscal deficit crossed 6.06 lk cr, which is 33.9% of full-year estimate.

 

OUTLOOK

 

China's August Caixin manufacturing PMI has come in at 51 as against estimate of 49.

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are up 0.6% and 0.5% respectively while Hang Seng is down 0.6%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting a modestly lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 19452, the top made Wednesday, which roughly coincided with 20-DMA, was the immediate hurdle while 19230, the low made last week, continued to be immediate support.

 

Nifty fell to 19223 before closing at 19253.

 

19160 and 18934, the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels of the 18646-19991 up move seen since 26th June, are the next downside levels to eye; 19452, the top made Wednesday, continues to be immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 44950, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle; 43600, the low made in mid-August, is the downside level to eye.

 

Auto companies will report their August sales data today.

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