19875 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 19550 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

19875 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 19550 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq inched up 0.1% each on Friday.

 

October’s housing starts and building permits data revealed that both were stronger than expected. Private owned housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, higher than the 1.35 million estimated by Dow Jones. Building permits came in at 1.487 million, also above the 1.45 million estimate.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield ended flat at 4.439%. Dollar index fell 0.6% to 103.82. Gold ended flat at $1981 per ounce.

 

WTI crude for December rose 3.03% to $75.11 per barrel, while Brent contract for January rose 3.2%, to $79.91 a barrel.

 

European markets surged 0.8%-1.3%. U.K. retail sales fell 2.7% y-o-y and 0.3% month-on-month, hitting the lowest level since early 2021 and coming in far below expectations. A final reading of euro zone inflation came in at 2.9% y-o-y in October compared to 4.3% in September.

 

For the week, U.S. indices gained 1.9%-2.4%, extending the winning streak to third straight week. European markets gained 2%-4.5%. Asian markets gained 0.5%-3.1%.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, snapping a 2-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 65794, down 187 points while Nifty lost 33 points to finish at 19731. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, extending the winning streak to 12th and 6th consecutive day respectively and hit fresh record highs. Nifty Bank and Oil & Gas indices fell 1.3% and 1.1% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare and Pharma indices were the top gainers, up 1% each.

 

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to end at 83.27/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.8% and 1% respectively, extending the winning streak to third consecutive week and closing at the highest level after the week ended 13th October, 2023.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng is up 0.7% bug Nikkei and Shanghai are off 0.2% each. GIFT Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 19875, the top made Thursday, was the immediate hurdle, while 19500 was the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty fell to close at 19731.

 

19875, the top made last week, roughly coincided with the upper band of daily Bollinger band as well as the top made in October and hence is the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 20222, the top made in September, would be next major target to eye. On the way down, 19550 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, upon breach of which, 19350, around which 20-DMA is placed, would be the next downside level to eye. Meanwhile, trading longs can be held on to with the stop-loss of 19550.

 

For Banknifty, 44420, the top made during the week, coincided with 20-week moving average and hence is the important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which, is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 45400, the 78.6% retracement level of the entire 46310-42105 fall, would be next upside target. On the way down, 43263 and 42990, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the recent upmove seen since 26th October, are the next downside levels to eye.

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