21830 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 22125 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

21830 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; 22125 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices gained 0.1%-0.9%. Nasdaq led the gains and posted highest ever close.

 

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago in January, matching estimates. Headline PCE, which includes food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis. Personal income rose 1% month-over-month in January, well above the forecast for 0.3%. January pending sales declined 4.9% for the month, much worse than the 2% projected increase.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 1 bps to 4.254%. Dollar index rose 0.2% to 104.13. Gold rose half a percent to $2043 per ounce.

 

WTI crude futures fell 0.4% to settle at $78.26 a barrel and Brent futures fell 0.1% to $83.62 a barrel.

 

In Europe, DAX and FTSE gained 0.4% and 0.1% respectively while CAC fell a third of a percent. German consumer price inflation came in line with forecasts at 2.7% y-o-y.

 

For the month, U.S. indices gained 2.2%-6.1%, extending the winning streak to fourth consecutive month.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling four tenth of a percent in first hour, benchmark indices rebounded in late trade to end with modest gains. Sensex settled at 72500, up 195 points while Nifty added 31 points to finish at 21982. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Nifty PSU Bank and Metal indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 1.3% and 0.9% respectively while Media and Healthcare indices were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.6% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 3568 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 896 cr and 4181 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 230 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 1 paise to end at 82.91/$.

 

For the month, Sensex and Nifty gained 1% and 1.2% respectively. For the February derivative series, Nifty gained 3%.

 

India's Q3 GDP grew at a much better-than-expected 8.4% as against 8.1% in the previous quarter. FY24 GDP growth estimate was hiked to 7.6% from 7.3%. FY 22 growth rate too was revised higher to 9.7% from 9.1% while that of FY23 was revised lower to 7% from 7.2%.

 

January core industries growth slowed to a 15-month low of 3.6% as against 4.9% in December. Fiscal deficit for the first 10-months of FY24 touched Rs 11 lk cr, accounting for 63.6% of FY24 target.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Official data from China showed February manufacturing PMI at 49.1, in line with forecast. The private Caixin manufacturing final PMI came in at 50.9, slighty higher than the previous month’s 50.8.

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 1.7% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 40 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 34-DMA, placed around 21820, was the next downside level to eye, while 22125 was the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 21860, rebounded to end at 21982.

 

34-DMA, placed around 21830, continues to be important immediate support to eye; 22125-22150 is the immediate resistance zone, upon crossover of which, 22297, the top made last week, would be next upside level to eye.

 

For Banknifty, 45661, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support, upon breach of which, 45218, the 78.6% retracement levels of the recent 44633-47363 upmove, would be next downside levels to eye; 46600 is the immediate hurdle. 

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