Wednesday, June 25, 2014

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 25.06.2014

IRAQ CONCERNS OVERSHADOW POSITIVE US DATA

WORLD MARKETS

US indices, after starting in the positive territory on the back of encouraging economic data, saw a sustained downward move through rest of the session to end with cuts ranging from 0.4%-0.7% on account of geopolitical concerns.

Media reports suggested that Syrian warplanes struck targets in western Iraq, killing at least 50 people, as Syria joined Iran in coming to the aid of the embattled Baghdad government. Meanwhile, militants launched an attack on one of Iraq's largest air bases, located less than 100 kilometers from Baghdad.

Back in the US, new-home sales for May jumped 18.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 units, marking a six-year high and beating the expected 440,000 forecast. Also, the consumer confidence index for June came in at 85.2, beating estimates of 83. The Case-Shiller index of home prices for April rose 10.8% y-o-y and 1.1% month-on-month.

Speaking in New York on, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said the economy is nearing the central bank's targets more quickly than expected, and could have the Fed increasing interest rates sooner than anticipated.

European markets ended mixed. Ifo business climate index for Germany in June showed a fall to 110.4 points from 111.2 points last month and underscored concerns about sluggish economic recovery in the euro zone.

AT HOME

Building on Monday's last half an hour recovery, benchmark indices surged nearly a percent and quarter in yesterday, breaking a 4-day losing streak. Sensex soared 338 points to settle at 25369 while Nifty finished at 7580, up 87 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.6% each. Except a 0.1% cut in BSE Healthcare index, all other sectoral indices ended in green with Realty and Consumer Durable indices leading the tally, putting on 3.2% and 2.4% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 285 cr and 624 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 280 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 216 cr.

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to close at 60.13/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

After holding on to 7487 support on closing basis on Monday, Nifty yesterday surged 87 points to end at 7580.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that the nearest resistance on the hourly chart is placed at 7560, upon crossover of which next major hurdle to eye would be 7663, which is the top made last week. That continues to be the view.


Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed at 7540, with the stop loss of which trading longs can be held on to.

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