17857 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17700-17650 IS THE SUPPORT AREA

 

17857 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17700-17650 IS THE SUPPORT AREA

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

On Thursday, US indices surged 1.1%-2%, cheering another report pointing to cooling U.S. inflation. The March producer price index declined by 0.5% month over month versus expectations for prices to be flat. Excluding food and energy, the core wholesale prices reading shed 0.1%, much better than the 0.2% increase expected.

 

US indices fell 0.2%-0.4% on Friday as a weak retail sales report dented enthusiasm around a stronger-than-expected start to corporate earnings. 

 

Retail sales declined by 1% last month, more than the 0.5% drop expected.

 

JPMorgan Chase reported record revenue that beat expectations. Results from Wells Fargo and Citigroup also beat estimates.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 7 bps to 3.517%. Dollar index rose 0.6% to 101.58. Gold tumbled 1.8% to $2003 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures settled at $86.31 a barrel, up 0.3% while WTI crude futures rose 0.4% to $82.52 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.4% while DAX and CAC gained half a percent each.

 

 

For the week, US indices gained 0.3%-1.2%, with the Dow notching its fourth straight positive week. European markets rose 1.3%-2.7%. Asian markets gained 0.3%-3.5% with Nikkei on the top.

 

WTI and Brent rose 2.8% and 2% respectively, posting a fourth consecutive week of gains amid easing concerns over a banking crisis that struck last month and the surprise decision last week by OPEC+ to further cut output.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 11 bps to 3.52%. Dollar index fell half a percent to 101.58. Gold eased  0.2% to $2003 per ounce.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling nearly half a percent, benchmark indices recouped all the losses and some more in second half to end marginally higher, extending the winning streak to ninth consecutive session. Sensex settled at 60431, up 38 points while Nifty added 15 points to finish at 17828. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Nifty Bank and Realty indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 1.4% and 1.1% respectively while IT index was the top loser, down 2.2%, followed by 0.8% lower Pharma index.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 222 cr and 1250 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 17 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 274 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 25 paise to end at 81.85/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1% and 1.3% respectively, extending the winning streak to third consecutive week and closing at the highest level after the week ended 17th February.

 

Infosys Q4 results were a shocker as both revenue and margins missed estimate by a wide margin. Revenue in fact dipped 3.2% sequentially, marking the worst pace of growth in 10 years. The company guided for a 4-7% revenue guidance for FY24, which is significantly lower than 15.4% revenue growth registered in FY23. Infosys ADR plunged 10% on Thursday.

 

HDFC Bank reported strong growth in Net Interest Income while asset quality and net interest margin remained stable. Profit missed estimate as operating expenses remained elevated due to branch expansion.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up nearly half a percent each while Nikkei is marginally in the red. SGX Nifty is suggesting 90-100 points lower start for our market.

 

In Thursday's report we had said that 18135, the top made in February, continued to be next big target to eye while 17650 was the immediate support on hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 17729, rebounded to end at 17828. The benchmark is set to open near 17750 today.

 

17857, the 50% retracement level of the entire 18887-16828 fall, is the immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 18135, the top made in February, would be next big target; 17700-17650 is the immediate support zone on the hourly chart,  with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 42966, the 78.6% retracement level of the entire 44151-38613 fall, is the next upside target to eye, above which, 43578, the top made in January, would be next target; 41300 is the immediate  support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.