TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17320

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17320

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.4% and 0.8% respectively after the March jobs report showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation.

 

The U.S. added 236,000 jobs in March, about in line with expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% from 3.6% a month earlier. Average hourly earnings increased 4.2% y-o-y, the lowest level since June 2021.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 16 bps to 3.993%. Dollar index was flat at 102.09. Gold fell 0.6% to $2008  per ounce.

 

Brent as well as WTI crude settled down 0.2% at $84.86 and $80.47 a barrel respectively.

 

European markets gained 0.1%-1.3%.

 

For the week, The S&P 500 lost 0.1%, breaking a 3-week win streak. The Nasdaq Composite was down 1.1% for the week, while the Dow rose 0.6%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose quarter of a percent each, extending the winning streak to fifth consecutive session. Sensex settled at 59832, up 143 points while Nifty rose 42 points to finish at 17599. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Nifty Realty index surged 2.8%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.9% higher Financial Services index. IT index was the top loser, down 0.7%, followed by half a percent lower FMCG and Consumer Durables indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 476 cr, 291 cr and 706 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 997 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 12 paise to end at 81.88/$.

 

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, contrary to widely expected 25 bps hike, kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. "Withdrawal of accommodation" as a policy stance was maintained. RBI upped India's FY24 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from 6.4% earlier while inflation forecast for FY24 was cut to 5.2% from 5.3%.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.4% each, extending the winning streak to second consecutive week.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 60 points higher start for our market.

 

In Thursday's report we had said that 17592, the 78.6% retracement levels of the recent 17800-16828 fall, is the next upside level to eye, upon crossover of which, 17800, the top made in March, would be important hurdle to tackle; We had also said that immediate support on the hourly chart had moved up to 17250, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty touched a high of 17638 before closing at 17599. The benchmark is set to open near 17650 today.

 

17700 is where a trendline adjoining tops made in December 2022 and February 2023 are placed, while 34 and 20-week moving averages are placed around 17750 and 17800 respectively. This makes 17700-17800 important resistance zone. If Nifty is able to take out this hurdle, 18135 followed by 18252, the tops made in February and January respectively,  would be next upside targets; On the way down, 17320 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 41275, the top made last week, which also coincided with a trendline adjoining tops made since 14th December 2022, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 42000, the top made in February, would be next upside target; 40400 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.