Tuesday, April 16, 2024

22000-21950 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT AREA; 22600 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

22000-21950 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT AREA; 22600 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices fell 0.6%-1.8% as rising yields and worries over the conflict in the Middle East overshadowed strong retail sales data and Goldman Sachs earnings.

 

Retail sales increased 0.7% in March, above the 0.3% consensus forecast. Data for February was revised higher to show sales rebounding 0.9% instead 0.6% as previously reported.

 

Goldman Sachs climbed nearly 3% after beating Wall Street expectations on both lines in the first quarter.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 8 bps to 4.606%. Dollar index rose 0.2% to 106.18. Gold rose 1.7% to $2382 per ounce.

 

WTI crude futures fell 0.3% to settle at $85.41 a barrel and Brent futures fell 0.4% to $90.10 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE fell 0.4% while DAX and CAC gained 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices nosedived 1.1% each, posting worst fall since 13th March and closing at the lowest level after 27th March. Sensex settled at 73400, down 845 points while Nifty lost 246 points to finish at 22272. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 1.6% and 1.7% respectively, their worst cut since 13th March. Except 0.4% higher Oil & Gas index, all the NSE sectoral indices ended lower, with Media and PSU Bank indices leading the losses, down 2.2% and 2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 3268 cr and 3850 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 1209 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 4763 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to end at 83.45/$.

 

India's March trade deficit stood at $15.60 bn Vs $18.70 bn month-on-month. March WPI inflation came in at 0.53%, up from 0.2% in February.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.6%-1.8% and GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 180 points gap-down start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 22270, where 20 as well as 34-DMAs were placed, was the important support to eye while 22700-22775 was the immediate resistance zone.

 

Nifty fell to 22260 before closing at 22272 and is set to open near 22100 today.

 

Nifty has been trading in a rising channel formation since late January and lower end of this channel lands next support in 22000-21950 region; 22600 is the immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 34-DMA, placed around 47300, is the next support to eye; 48500 is the immediate hurdle.


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Monday, April 15, 2024

22270 IS THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT TO EYE; 22700-22775 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

 

22270 IS THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT TO EYE; 22700-22775 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices tumbled 1.2%-1.6% as inflation and geopolitical worries dented sentiment.

 

JPMorgan Chase shares declined more than 6% after the banking giant said net interest income could be a little short of what analysts are expecting in 2024. CEO Jamie Dimon also warned about persistent inflationary pressures weighing on the economy. Wells Fargo slipped 0.4% after reporting its latest quarterly figures. Citigroup dropped 1.7% despite posting a revenue beat.

 

Import prices in the start of 2024 posted their largest three-month gain since May 2022. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for April came in at 77.9, below the estimate of 79.9. Year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations also ticked up.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 7 bps to 4.526%. Dollar index surged 0.7% to 106.01, it's highest level in more than 5-months. Gold, after hitting a record high of $2432 per ounce, reversed to end 1.2% lower at $2343 per ounce.

 

Oil prices continued their rise on reports that Israel is preparing for a direct attack by Iran this weekend. U.S. and Brent crude gained 0.8% each to settle at $85.66 and $90.45 a barrel respectively.

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.9% but DAX and CAC ended with modest cuts. Britain’s economic output increased by 0.1% in monthly terms in February, in line with expectations.

 

Data from China showed March exports contracted sharply, while imports also unexpectedly shrank, both missing market forecasts by big margins. This follows a weaker-than-expected rise in the country’s inflation on Thursday.

 

For the week, Dow nosedived 2.4% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.6% and 0.4% respectively. Dollar index jumped 1.5% this week, the biggest weekly gain since February.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices tumbled 1.1% each, marking their worst day in nearly a month. Sensex settled at 74245, down 793 points while Nifty lost 238 points to finish at 22515. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. All the NSE sectoral indices ended lower, with Pharma and Healthcare indices being the top losers, down 1.7% and 1.4% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 8027 cr, 1997 cr and 6859 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 6342 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 23 paise to end at 83.41/$.

 

India-Mauritius amended their double-tax avoidance agreement in a bid to curb tax evasion by introducing a new test to weed out transactions that are solely carried out for the purpose of tax benefit.

 

India's March CPI eased to a 10-month low of 4.8% in March. Core CPI cooled for the 10th straight month. Industrial production in February accelerated by 5.7%, the highest growth in last 4-months.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets in Israel on Saturday. The U.S. intervened to directly help Israel shoot down nearly all of the incoming munitions, Biden said in a statement Saturday.

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 1% each while Shanghai is up 0.7%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting more than 100 points gap-down start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 22775, the top made on Wednesday, was the immediate hurdle while 22500 was the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty plunged to 22503 before closing at 22519. The benchmark is set to open near 22400 today.

 

22270, where 20 as well as 34-DMAs are placed, would be the important support to eye after today's gap-down start; 22700-22775 is the immediate resistance zone.

 

For Banknifty, 48500-48400 is the immediate support zone, upon breach of which, 48100-48000 would be next support area. 49057, the top made last week, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 50500 would be next target.


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Friday, April 12, 2024

22900 ABOVE 22775; 48500-48450 IS THE SUPPORT AREA

 

22900 ABOVE 22775; 48500-48450 IS THE SUPPORT AREA

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices fell 0.8%-1.1% on Wednesday after March CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 3.5% y-o-y, versus estimates of 0.3% and 3.4% respectively. U.S. 10-year treasury yield shot up 18 bps to 4.544%. Dollar index surged 1% to 105.19. Gold fell 0.9% to $2332 per ounce.

 

Yesterday, Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and 1.7% respectively, with Nasdaq closing at a record.

 

Apple popped 4.3% on news reports that the company would transition its Mac product line to artificial intelligence-focused chips.

 

New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need for a policy change in the near term. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed the same sentiment.

 

The March producer price index rose by 0.2% for the month, lower than the 0.3% increase anticipated. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, gained 0.2%, in line with the consensus estimate. A separate report showed 211,000 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended April 6, compared with a forecast for 215,000.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 5 bps to 4.591%. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 105.26. Gold jumped 1.7% to $2372 per ounce.

 

WTI crude futures fell 1.4% to settle $85.02 a barrel and Brent futures fell 0.8% to $89.74 a barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.3%-1%. European Central Bank held interest rates at a record high of 4% as expected, but sent a signal it was preparing for a cut.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices gained half a percent each to close at fresh record highs. Sensex settled at 75038, up 354 points while Nifty added 111 points to finish at 22753. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1% and 0.7% respectively, both posting highest ever close. Except 0.3% and 0.1% lower Pharma and Auto indices respectively, all the NSE sectoral indices ended higher, with Media index on the top, up 1.8%, followed by 1.5% higher PSU Bank and Oil & Gas indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 2778 cr, 4006 cr and 3587 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 163 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 13 paise to end at 83.19/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.6% but Hang Seng is down 1.8% and Shanghai is marginally in the red. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 140 points gap-down start for our market.

 

In Wednesday's report we had said that 22850 was the next upside level to eye and that 22500-22450 was the immediate support zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty touched a high of 22775 before closing at 22753 but is set to open near 22600 today.

 

After today's gap-down start, 22775, the top made on Wednesday, would be immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 22900, around which upper end of a rising channel formation is placed, would be the next upside level to eye; 22500 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 50500 continues to be next major target to eye; 48500-48450 is the immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

India's March CPI and February IIP data will be released today.

 

TCS will report its quarterly earnings today.


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Wednesday, April 10, 2024

22850 IS THE NEXT UPSIDE LEVEL TO EYE; 22500-22450 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT ZONE

 

22850 IS THE NEXT UPSIDE LEVEL TO EYE; 22500-22450 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT ZONE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow was little changed while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.1% and 0.3% respectively ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 6 bps to 4.366%. Dollar index was flat at 104.11. Gold rose 0.6% to $2353 per ounce.

 

Japan’s corporate inflation rate came in at 0.8% for March, its third straight month of increase and in line with expectations.

 

WTI crude futures fell 1.4% to settle at $85.23 a barrel and Brent futures lost 1.1% to settle at $89.42 a barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.1%-1.3%.

 

AT HOME

 

After gaining nearly half a percent and hitting fresh highs in the initial trade, benchmark indices slipped to end marginally in the red. Sensex settled at 74683, down 58 points while Nifty lost 23 points to finish at 22642. Nifty mid-cap index fell 0.3% while small-cap index rose 0.3%.Nifty Media index was the top loser among the sectoral indices, down 1.3%, followed by 0.8% lower PSU Bank and Consumer Durables indices. Metal index was the top gainer, up 1.1%, followed by half a percent higher Realty index.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 593 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 2485 cr and 1022 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2257 cr.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng is up a percent while Nikkei and Shanghai are down 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting nearly 90 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 22800-22850 was the next target area while 22500-22450 was the immediate support zone.

 

Nifty, after hitting a high of 22768, slipped to end at 22642 and is set to open near 22700 today.

 

22850, around which upper end of a rising channel formation is placed, is the next upside level to eye; 22500-22450 is the immediate support zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 50500 is the next major target to eye; 48100-48000 is the immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.


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Tuesday, April 9, 2024

22800-22850 IS THE NEXT TARGET AREA; 22500-22450 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE

 

22800-22850 IS THE NEXT TARGET AREA; 22500-22450 IS THE SUPPORT ZONE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices ended little changed.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.42%. Dollar index fell 0.2% to 104.12. Gold rose 0.4% to $2338 per ounce.

 

WTI crude future fell 0.6% to settle at $86.43 a barrel and Brent futures lost 0.9% to settle at $90.38 a barrel.

 

European markets gained 0.4%-0.9%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose 0.7% each and hit fresh record highs. Sensex settled at 74742, up 494 points while Nifty added 152 points to finish at 22666. Nifty mid-cap index was little changed while small-cap index rose 0.3%. Nifty Auto index surged 2.2%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.4% higher Oil & Gas index. PSU Bank and Media indices were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 685 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1262 cr and 623 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3471 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 2 paise to end at 83.32/$.

 

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng and Nikkei are up 1.2% and 0.6% respectively while Shanghai is little changed. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 90 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 22800 was the next upside target while 22200 was the immediate support.

 

Nifty surged to 22697 before closing at 22666. The benchmark is set to open near 22750 today.

 

22800-22850, around which upper end of a rising channel formation is placed, is the next upside level to eye; 22500-22450 is the immediate support zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 50500 is the next major target to eye; 48000-47900 is the immediate support area, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

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Monday, April 8, 2024

22800 IS NEXT UPSIDE TARGET; 22200 IMPORTANT IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

22800 IS NEXT UPSIDE TARGET; 22200 IMPORTANT IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices gained 0.8%-1.2% as markets cheered a stronger-than-expected jobs report and looked past a jump in rates.

 

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 303,000 in March, far above expectations for an increase of 200,000 and higher than the downwardly revised 270,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate came out at 3.8%, as expected. Wages rose 0.3% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, both in line with estimates.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield jumped 9 bps to 4.404%. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 104.29. Gold soared 1.8% to $2330 per ounce.

 

WTI crude futures rose 0.4% to $86.91 a barrel while the Brent futures gained 0.6% to $91.17 a barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.8%-1.6%.

 

For the week, Dow slid 2.27%, posting its worst weekly performance in 2024. The S&P 500 declined 1% during the period, while the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. U.S. crude is up 4.5% for the week while the global benchmark has added 4.2%. Gold rose over 4% this week and logged a third straight weekly gain.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended flat after trading in a narrow range. Sensex settled at 74248, up 20 points while Nifty fell 1 point to finish at 22513. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, extending the winning streak to 10th and 11th straight session respectively. Nifty Realty index climbed 1.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.9% higher Bank and Financial Services indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1659 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 220 cr and 5114 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 3370 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 14 paise to end at 83.30/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.8% each, extending the winning streak to third consecutive week and hitting fresh record highs.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 1.6% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 60 points higher start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 22750, continued to be next upside level to eye while 22200, around which 20 and 34-DMAs are placed, continued to be a decent stop-loss for trading longs.

 

Nifty ended flat at 22514 and is set to open near 22600 today.

 

22800, around which upper end of a rising channel formation is placed, is the next upside level to eye; 20 and 34-DMA both are placed around 22200 making it an important immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 48636, the all-time high made on 28th December, is the immediate upside target, upon crossover of which, 50500, would be next major target to eye. 47800-47700 is the immediate support zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.


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Friday, April 5, 2024

22750 CONTINUES TO BE NEXT UPSIDE TARGET; 22200 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

22750 CONTINUES TO BE NEXT UPSIDE TARGET; 22200 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and Nasdaq plunged 1.4% each while S & P 500 fell 1.2% as oil prices surged and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials fueled worries that the central bank could hold off on rate cuts. Dow had ts worst session since March 2023 and logged its fourth consecutive losing day.

 

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wondered if the central bank should cut rates at all if inflation remained sticky.

 

Initial jobless claims increased more than expected last week, hitting their highest level since late January. Trade deficit increased to $68.9 billion in February, slightly higher than estimate.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 4 bps to 4.313%. Dollar index was flat at 104.21. Gold fell half a percent to $2289 per ounce.

 

WTI and Brent crude futures rose 1.4% each to settle at $86.59 and $90.65 a barrel respectively. It was the highest settlement price for both since Oct. 20.

 

In Europe, FTSE and DAX rose 0.5% and 0.2% respectively while CAC was little changed.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty ended higher by 0.5% and 0.4% after wild intraday swings, both hitting fresh record highs. Sensex settled at 74227, up 350 points while Nifty added 80 points to finish at 22514. Nifty mid-cap index was flat while small-cap index rose 0.4%. Nifty IT and Bank indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 1.1% and 0.9% respectively while Oil & Gas and PSU Bank indices were the top losers, down 1.4% and 0.7% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1136 cr, 754 cr and 6587 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 893 cr.

 

Rupee ended flat at 83.44/$.

 

India's S & P Global/HSBC March Services PMI rose to 61.2 from 60.3 in February. Composite PMI rose to 61.8 from 60.6.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is down 2.5% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are off 0.7% and 0.2% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 70 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that report we had said that 22750 continued to be next upside target and that 22000 was the immediate support.

 

Nifty, after making a low of 22303, rebounded to end at 22514.

 

22750, around which upper end of a rising channel formation is placed, continues to be next upside level to eye; 22200, around which 20 and 34-DMAs are placed, continues to be a decent stop-loss for trading longs.

 

For Banknifty, 48636, the all-time high made in December, is the next upside level to eye; 47400 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave key interest rate unchanged when it announces it's decision today.


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