Wednesday, March 20, 2019

116000 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11410


116000 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11410

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended mixed with modest changes after digesting a series of conflicting reports on US-China trade negotiations.

Media reports suggested that U.S. officials are worried China may be pushing back against U.S. demands in the countries’ ongoing trade talks. The report also said Chinese negotiators are worried they have not received assurances that tariffs imposed on Chinese goods would be lifted once a deal is struck. On the flip side, another report said the talks were in the final stages, noting Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington in the next few weeks.

US crude fell 6 cents to $59.03 a barrel, after hitting an intraday peak at $59.57, the highest level since Nov. 12. Brent crude oil futures rose 7 cents at $67.61 per barrel.

European markets gained 0.3%-1.1%

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, extending the winning streak to seventh consecutive day and closing at the highest level since 7th September 2018, marking a six and a half month high. Sensex added 268 points to settle at 38363 while Nifty finished at 11532, up 70 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Telecom and Energy indices climbed 1.8% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, down 0.6% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 2132 cr and 288 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 601 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1254 cr.

Rupee depreciated 44 paise to end at 68.96/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.2%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty achieved 11465 target, we had given next targets of 11523, followed by 11600. Nifty, after achieving 11523 target on Monday, moved higher to touch a high of 11543 yesterday before closing at 11532.

11600 continues to be next upside target above which 11760, the top made in August 2018, would be the next major target as well as resistance to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11410, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates later today following its two-day monetary policy meeting. Market expectations for a rate hike are at zero, however, investors will look for clues on the Fed’s economic outlook. The Fed is also expected to lower its interest rate forecasts — or “dot plots” — to show little or no further tightening in 2019 and adopt a cautious tone in light of slowing global economic growth.

116000 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11410


116000 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11410

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended mixed with modest changes after digesting a series of conflicting reports on US-China trade negotiations.

Media reports suggested that U.S. officials are worried China may be pushing back against U.S. demands in the countries’ ongoing trade talks. The report also said Chinese negotiators are worried they have not received assurances that tariffs imposed on Chinese goods would be lifted once a deal is struck. On the flip side, another report said the talks were in the final stages, noting Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington in the next few weeks.

US crude fell 6 cents to $59.03 a barrel, after hitting an intraday peak at $59.57, the highest level since Nov. 12. Brent crude oil futures rose 7 cents at $67.61 per barrel.

European markets gained 0.3%-1.1%

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, extending the winning streak to seventh consecutive day and closing at the highest level since 7th September 2018, marking a six and a half month high. Sensex added 268 points to settle at 38363 while Nifty finished at 11532, up 70 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Telecom and Energy indices climbed 1.8% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, down 0.6% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 2132 cr and 288 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 601 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1254 cr.

Rupee depreciated 44 paise to end at 68.96/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.2%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty achieved 11465 target, we had given next targets of 11523, followed by 11600. Nifty, after achieving 11523 target on Monday, moved higher to touch a high of 11543 yesterday before closing at 11532.

11600 continues to be next upside target above which 11760, the top made in August 2018, would be the next major target as well as resistance to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11410, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates later today following its two-day monetary policy meeting. Market expectations for a rate hike are at zero, however, investors will look for clues on the Fed’s economic outlook. The Fed is also expected to lower its interest rate forecasts — or “dot plots” — to show little or no further tightening in 2019 and adopt a cautious tone in light of slowing global economic growth.

116000 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11410


116000 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11410

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended mixed with modest changes after digesting a series of conflicting reports on US-China trade negotiations.

Media reports suggested that U.S. officials are worried China may be pushing back against U.S. demands in the countries’ ongoing trade talks. The report also said Chinese negotiators are worried they have not received assurances that tariffs imposed on Chinese goods would be lifted once a deal is struck. On the flip side, another report said the talks were in the final stages, noting Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington in the next few weeks.

US crude fell 6 cents to $59.03 a barrel, after hitting an intraday peak at $59.57, the highest level since Nov. 12. Brent crude oil futures rose 7 cents at $67.61 per barrel.

European markets gained 0.3%-1.1%

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, extending the winning streak to seventh consecutive day and closing at the highest level since 7th September 2018, marking a six and a half month high. Sensex added 268 points to settle at 38363 while Nifty finished at 11532, up 70 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Telecom and Energy indices climbed 1.8% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Auto and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, down 0.6% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 2132 cr and 288 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 601 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1254 cr.

Rupee depreciated 44 paise to end at 68.96/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.2%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty achieved 11465 target, we had given next targets of 11523, followed by 11600. Nifty, after achieving 11523 target on Monday, moved higher to touch a high of 11543 yesterday before closing at 11532.

11600 continues to be next upside target above which 11760, the top made in August 2018, would be the next major target as well as resistance to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11410, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates later today following its two-day monetary policy meeting. Market expectations for a rate hike are at zero, however, investors will look for clues on the Fed’s economic outlook. The Fed is also expected to lower its interest rate forecasts — or “dot plots” — to show little or no further tightening in 2019 and adopt a cautious tone in light of slowing global economic growth.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

NIFTY ACHIEVES 11523 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11325


NIFTY ACHIEVES 11523 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11325

WORLD MARKETS

US indices rose 0.2%-0.4% ahead of a two-day monetary policy meeting by the Fed, set to begin on Tuesday. Amazon and Apple outperformed, but gains were kept in check amid pressure from Boeing and Facebook.

US crude rose 1% or 57 cents to $59.09 a barrel and Brent rose 38 cents or half a percent to $67.54, supported by the prospect of prolonged OPEC-led oil supply curbs and signs of inventory declines at the delivery point for U.S. crude futures.

European markets, except 0.2% lower DAX, gained 0.1%-1% with FTSE on the top. The European Union’s trade surplus with the U.S. and its deficit with China increased in January, official data showed yesterday.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, extending the winning streak to sixth consecutive day. Sensex settled at 38095, up 70 points while Nifty added 35 points to finish at 11462. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however fell 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Realty index climbed 2.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.7% higher Energy index. Auto and Telecom indices were the top losers, down 1.4% and 1.3% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1823 cr and 828 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 802 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1269 cr.

Rupee appreciated 56 paise to end at 68.53/$, the strongest level since August 1, 2018.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty achieved 11465 target, we had given next targets of 11523, followed by 11600 in yesterday's report.

Nifty touched a high of 11530 before closing at 11462, achieving 11523 target and vindicating our view.

11530, the top made yesterday, coincides with the upward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in October and December 2018. Hence, a crossover of 11530 is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 11600 would be the next target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11325, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

Monday, March 18, 2019

11523 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11300


11523 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11300

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.5% each while Nasdaq rose 0.8% on Friday on renewed optimism on the U.S.-China trade front.

Media reports suggested that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke via telephone with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and that the two sides have further made concrete progress on the text of the trade agreement between the two sides.

US crude fell 19 cents to $58.52 a barrel while Brent fell 23 cents to $67.

European markets gained 0.6%-1.4% after U.K. lawmakers voted to seek delay of a potentially chaotic exit from the European Union for at least three months. Inflation in the euro zone saw a 1.5% year-on-year increase in February.

For the week, US indices gained 1.6%-3.8%, European markets rose 1.7%-3.3% while Asian markets were up 1.8%-3.7%.

AT HOME

After climbing a percent and fourth, benchmark indices slipped in last half an hour to end with gains of 0.7%, extending the winning streak to fifth consecutive day and closing at fresh six-month high. Sensex settled at 38024, up 269 points while Nifty added 84 points to finish at 11426. BSE mid-cap index rose 0.6% but small-cap index fell 0.3%. BSE Power and Utilities indices gained 1.9% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.8% higher IT index. FMCG and Telecom indices were the top losers, down 1.8% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 4323 cr and 2362 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 2475 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 2130 cr.

Rupee appreciated 26 paise to end at 69.09/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 3.7% and 3.5% respectively, extending the winning streak to fourth straight week.

India’s trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $9.60 bn Vs $14.73 bn in January.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Shanghai is flat while Hang Seng and Nikkei are up 0.3% each. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that after 11384 target was achieved, we had given next target of 11465 in Friday's report.

Nifty surged to touch a high of 11487 before closing at 11426, achieving 11465 target and vindicating our view yet again.

11523 is the next target for Nifty on the way up above which 11600 would be the next level to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11300, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

Friday, March 15, 2019

NIFTY ACHIEVES 11384 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11180


NIFTY ACHIEVES 11384 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11180

WORLD MARKETS

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.1% and 0.2% respectively after digesting the release of weak U.S. home sales data and latest news on the U.S.-China trade front.

New home sales fell 6.9% in January — which was more than expected

Media reports suggested that China and U.S. are trying to push back a meeting between Xi Jin ping and Trump from late March to April at the earliest. This comes after Trump said he was in no rush to form an agreement.

Earlier, data showed China’s industrial output expanded at its slowest rate in 17 years.

US oil rose 0.6% to 58.61/$, hitting a 4-month high. Brent, after hitting a high of $68.14, slipped to end at $67.19.

European markets gained 0.1%-0.8%. In the U.K., lawmakers voted in favor of seeking a delayed departure from the European Union for at least three months. The vote was nonbinding, however, and the EU will have to agree to a delay.

AT HOME

It was a day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended little changed after trading in a narrow range through the session. Sensex settled at 37754, up 3 points while Nifty added 2 points to finish at 11343. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.3% but small-cap index rose 0.1%. BSE Realty index soared 2.1%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.6% higher Metal index. IT and Auto indices fell 0.4% each, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1483 cr, 485 cr and 342 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 818 cr.

Rupee appreciated 19 paise to end at 69.35/$.

India's WPI inflation for February came in at 2.93%, up from 2.76% in January. The figure for December was revised to 3.46% from 3.80%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.5%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that we have been working with target of 11384 after 11320 level was achieved.

Nifty yesterday touched a high of 11383 before closing at 11343, achieving 11384 target and vindicating our view yet again.

Upon crossover of 11384, 11465 would be the next target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11180, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs can be held on to.

Thursday, March 14, 2019

11384 CONTINUES TO BE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11170


11384 CONTINUES TO BE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11170

WORLD MARKETS

Dow rose 0.6% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.7% each on the back of strong economic data.

Nondefense durable goods orders posted their largest increase in six months in January, rising 0.8%. Overall durable goods orders also rose 0.4% as against expectation of a decline of 0.5%. U.S. construction spending posted its biggest increase in nine months, rising 1.3% in January. The data overshadowed a weaker-than-expected print on the producer price index.

US oil rose 2.4% or $1.50 to $58.26 a barrel and Brent rose 98 cents or 1.5% to $67.63 after the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week

European markets gained 0.1%-0.7% ahead of Brexit no-deal vote. On the data front, euro zone industrial production figures for January came in stronger than expected and the U.K. cut its growth forecast for this year.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, extending the winning streak to third straight day and closing at the highest level since mid-September, marking a six-month high. Sensex settled at 37752, up 216 points while Nifty added 40 points to finish at 11341. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however fell 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, extending yesterday's underperformance. BSE Bankex and Finance indices climbed 1.4% and 1.2% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Telecom index tumbled 2.6%, becoming top loser, followed by 1.9% lower Metal index.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 2722 cr and 1822 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 908 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1508 cr.

Rupee appreciated 17 paise to end at 69.53/$.

OUTLOOK

British lawmakers rejected the idea of leaving the European Union without a Brexit deal in place. Members of the U.K. parliament will vote again Thursday evening to seek an extension to Article 50, which oversees the withdrawal process from the EU, thus extending the departure date beyond Mar. 29.

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty achieved 11320 target, we had given next target of 11384 in yesterday's report, which is the 78.6% retracement level of the 11760-10004 fall.

The benchmark touched a high of 11352 before closing at 11341 and is set to open higher today.

11384 continues to be next upside target as well as resistance to eye. Above 11384, 11465 would be the next target.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11170, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.