Friday, March 27, 2020

9450 ABOVE 8883; 8160 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


9450 ABOVE 8883; 8160 IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 5.6%-6.4%, extending the winning streak to third straight day and shrugging off the record-breaking initial jobless claims while the Senate passed a massive economic stimulus bill amid the coronavirus outbreak. Dow had its bets three-day surge since 1931.

Jobless benefit claims soared to 3.28 million last week, highest so far. That number blew past the Great Recession peak of 665,000 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.

After the Senate unanimously approved a $2 trillion economic relief package, the bill will now head to the House.

WTI crude slipped 7.7%, or $1.89, to settle at $22.60 per barrel, while Brent crude fell $1.01, or 3.69%, to trade at $26.43 per barrel.

European markets rose 0.7%-2.5%. The Bank of England on held rates steady and promised more asset purchases if needed to cushion the economic blow from the virus.


AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty climbed 4.9% and 3.9% respectively, extending the winning streak to third consecutive day. Sensex settled at 29947, up 1410 points while Nifty added 323 points to finish at 8641. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 3.5% and 3.7% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Telecom and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, up 10% and 7.2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 485 cr, 360 cr and 256 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 770 cr.

Rupee appreciated 73 paise to end at 75.15/$.

For the March derivative series, Nifty fell 25.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 1%-2.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 100 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 8377 was the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which will confirm a "buy" on hourly and 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next upside target if that happens.

Nifty, crossed 8377 hurdle and surged all the way to 8749 before closing at 8641 and is set to open near 8700 today.

8883, the top made last Friday, continues to be upside target/resistance to eye. Above 8883, 9450, the 50% retracement level of the 11390-7511 fall seen since 5th March, would be the next target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed at 8120, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

RBI governor will address media at 10 am today. Some measures that can be announced/expected are pushing back repayment deadline, extra credit lines for cash strapped companies and window/line of credit for NBFCs and Mutual Funds.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

8883 ABOVE 8377; 7714, 7511 ARE SUPPORTS


8883 ABOVE 8377; 7714, 7511 ARE SUPPORTS

WORLD MARKETS

After gaining more than 5%, DJIA and S & P 500 slipped in last hour of trade to end higher by 2.4% and 1.2% respectively while Nasdaq ended with cut of 0.4%.

Initial surge happened after White House and Senate agreed on a $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill early Wednesday morning. But a tweet from Sen. Bernie Sanders that "Unless Republican Senators drop their objections to the coronavirus legislation, I am prepared to put a hold on this bill until stronger conditions are imposed on the $500 billion corporate welfare fund" spooked the markets towards the session end.

Brent crude rose 29 cents, or 1%, to $27.44 per barrel while WTI gained 48 cents, or 2%, to settle at $24.49 per barrel, extending the rising streak to third consecutive day.

European markets gained 1.7%-4.5%. Germany's Ifo business climate index fell to 86.1 in March, lower than expectations of 87.7 and down from 96.0 in February and marking since the country’s reunification in 1990. UK CPI inflation for February fell to 1.7% from 1.8% in January.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty soared 7% and 6.6% respectively, marking their biggest single-day gain after 18th May 2009. Sensex settled at 28535, up 1861 points while Nifty finished at 8317, up 516 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 3.5% and 2.8% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Energy index leading the tally, up 10.2%, followed by 8.6% higher Finance and Bankex indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1893 cr and 45 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 547 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 738 cr.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is off 4% while Hang Seng and Shanghai are off 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points lower start for our market.

After Nifty rebounded from our indicated 7500 support on Tuesday, in yesterday's report we had said that the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart had moved lower to 8365.

Nifty, after touching a high of 8376, eased a bit to end at 8317 and is set to open near 8250 today.

8377, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which will confirm a "buy" on hourly chart after a long while and would pave the way for further upmove. 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next upside target if that happens.

7715, the low made yesterday, is the immediate support below which 7511, the bottom made on Tuesday, would be the next crucial support.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

7500, 7350 CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTS TO EYE; 8365 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE


7500, 7350 CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTS TO EYE; 8365 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices soared 8%-11.4%, with the Dow posting its best one-day percentage gain in 87 years, on hopes that Congress would pass a massive $2 trillion stimulus bill to shield the economy from the coronavirus pandemic. S & P 500 had its best day since October 2008.

Reports that the outbreak was peaking in Europe also boosted the sentiment. Both new cases and deaths have dropped for two days in Italy, and the head of Germany’s public health institute said the infections rate in Europe’s largest economy was leveling off.

IHS Markit’s U.S. manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.2 in March from 50.7 in February, while the service PMI sank to 39.1 from 49.9, the lowest level recorded since data became available in October 2009. New residential home sales for February fell 4.4% to a annual rate of 765,000 from January’s revised level of 800,000.

Brent crude gained 22 cents to $27.27 per barrel, while WTI futures rose 65 cents, or 2.8%, to $24.01.

European markets climbed 8%-11%. Eurozone composite PMI nosedived to 31.4 in March from 51.6 in February, leaving the index at its lowest on record.

AT HOME

After falling more than a percent in first hour, Sensex and Nifty climbed nearly 4% from the bottom of the day to end higher by 2.7% and  2.5% respectively. Sensex added 692 points to settle at 26674 while Nifty finished at 7801, up 190 points. BSE mid-cap index gained 1.6% while small-cap index ended unchanged. BSE IT and Teck indices soared 7% and 5.8% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Capital Goods indices were the top losers, down 2% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 2153 cr and 1156 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 3197 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1554 cr.

Rupee appreciated 34 paise to end at 75.88/$.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announce a nationwide, 21 day, lockdown starting yesterday midnight.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a slew of measures for extension of statutory and regulatory compliances with respect to Income Tax, GST and IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code)  in view of the coronavirus pandemic spreading its wings and impacting the economy. She also said that the Economic Task Force will soon announce an economic relief package to deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 2%-6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 150 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 7500-7340 continued to be next support zone as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008.

Nifty, after touching a low of 7511, rebounded to end at 7801 and is set to open below 7700 today.

7500, 7340 continues to be support to eye as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008. If 7340 breaks, 6825, the bottom made in February 2016, would be the next support.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 8365, upon crossover of which 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next target/resistance to eye.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

8460, 8883 ARE HURDLES; 7500, 7350 SUPPORTS


8460, 8883 ARE HURDLES; 7500, 7350 SUPPORTS

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 tumbled 3% each while Nasdaq fell 0.3%  as Senate failed for the second time to clear a bill that would authorize giant fiscal spending to stimulate the economy.

Markets had opened higher after the Federal Reserve announced an open-ended asset purchase program. The central bank said the program will run in the “amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”

WTI gained 3.23% to settle at $23.36 per barrel while Brent crude rose 0.6% to $27.18 per barrel.

European markets fell 1.1%-3.8%.

AT HOME

Friday's rebound proved deceptive as Sensex and Nifty collapsed 13% each, marking biggest single-day fall ever, and closing at the lowest level in 39 months and 4 years respectively. Sensex settled at 25981, down 3934 points while Nifty lost 1135 points to finish at 7610. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices too tumbled 13% each to close at the lowest level in 5.5 years and 6 years respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Bankex and Finance indices leading the losses, down 16.8% and 16.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 2989 cr and 793 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 737 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1082 cr.

Rupee tumbled 112 paise to close at 76.30/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 2%-6%, US futures are up nearly 3% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 350 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 7832, the bottom made last week, was the important immediate support, below which, 7500-7340 would be next support zone.

Nifty broke 7832 support and plunged all the way to 7583 before closing at 7610 and is set to open above 7900 today.

7500-7340 continues to be next support zone as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 8460, upon crossover of which, 8883, the top made on Friday, would be the next resistance to eye.

Monday, March 23, 2020

7500-7340 BELOW 7832; 8883 IMMEDIATE HURDLE


7500-7340 BELOW 7832; 8883 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

After rising more than 2%, US indices nosedived nearly 6% from the top of the day in late trade to end with cuts of 3.8%-4.6% on Friday.

The reversal was on the back of a number of factors, including a stay-at-home order for New York State, a swift reversal in crude prices and a strengthening dollar. News reports that a clearing firm at the CME Group was unable to meet its capital requirements, also weiged on the sentiment.

US crude plunged $2.79, or 11.1%, to $22.43 per barrel while Brent fell $1.49 or 5.2%, to settle at $26.98.

European markets gained between 0.8%-5% with CAC leading the gains.

For the week, Dow nosedived 17% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 11.5% and 12.6% respectively, posting their worst weekly performances since the financial crisis in 2008.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty climbed 6% each on Friday, breaking four-day losing streak. Senex settled at 29915, up 1627 points while Nifty finished at 8745, up 482 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 4.2% and 4% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Energy and Oil & Gas indices leading the tally, up 10% and 9% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 3346 cr and 1051 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 2428 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2431 cr.

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to end at 75.18/$.

For the week, benchmark indices plunged 12.2% each, their biggest weekly fall since the week ended 24th October 2008 and closing at three year low.

SEBI on Friday halved position limits for certain stock futures, restricted short-selling of index derivatives and raised margin rates for some shares in a bid to curb "abnormally high" volatility.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, US futures are down nearly 4% after a massive funding package to combat the impact of coronavirus did not get enough votes in a key Senate procedural vote Sunday evening. Heng Seng and Shanghai are down 4.7% and 2.3% respectively, Nikkei is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting nearly 1000 points lower start for our market.

In Thursday's report we had said that 8020, where 500-week moving average was placed, was the crucial support to eye. Nifty, on Thursday, after touching a low of 7832, rebounded to end at 8263. On Friday we had said that 8600, 8995 and 9390, the 33%, 50% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 10160-7832 fall, were the resistance levels to eye. The benchmark, after touching a high of 8883, closed at 8745 but is set to open below 8000 today.

7832, the bottom made last week, is the important immediate support to eye. If that breaks, 7500-7340 would be next support zone, as 7500 is where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed while 7340 is the is the 50% retracement level of the entire 2252-12430 upmove seen after 2008.

8883, the top made on Friday, would now act as the immediate hurdle.

Friday, March 20, 2020

7832 IS THE SUPPORT; 8600, 9000 HURDLES


7832 IS THE SUPPORT; 8600, 9000 HURDLES

WORLD MARKETS

After falling more than 3% in the initial trade, US indices saw a sustained upward move through the session to end with gains of 0.5%-2.3%, with Nasdaq leading the gains.

Energy stock climbed after WTI crude rallied 23.8%, its biggest one-day move ever, to $25.22 per barrel. Brent futures gained 14.4% to $28.47 per barrel.

The dollar index jumped 1.5% to 102.67, its highest level since January 2017.

The European Central Bank announced a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program that will deploy €750 billion ($819 billion) to purchase securities to help support the European economy. Purchases will be conducted until the end of 2020 and include a variety of assets including government debt.

The Bank of England announced another surprise interest rate cut on and ratcheted up its bond-buying program, in an effort to offset the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

European markets gained 1.4%-2.7%. German ifo Business Climate Index plummeted from 96.0 in February to 87.7 in March, the biggest drop since 1991 and bringing the index to its lowest level since August 2009.

AT HOME

After plunging more than 7% in the initial trade, Sensex and Nifty  recouped more than half of the losses through the session to end lower by 2% and 2.4% respectively to close at fresh three year low. Sensex settled at 28288, down 581 points while Nifty lost 205 points to finish at 8263. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 3.7% and 4.5% respectively. Except a 1.7% higher Telecom index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Metal and Capital Goods indices leading the losses, down 7.2% and 6.2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 4623 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 45 cr and 1096 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 4367 cr.

Rupee depreciated 82 paise to end at 75.08/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.7%-2.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 8300, where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in December 2011 and August 2013 was placed, was the next support to eye, below which 8020, where 500-week moving average is placed, would be the next crucial and major support.

Nifty achieved 8020 target and went further lower to 7832, from where it rebounded sharply to end at 8263. The benchmark might start near 8200 today.

7832, the low made yesterday, is the support to eye. If 7832 gives way, 7500, where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in October 2012 and August 2013 is placed, would be the next support.

8600, 8995 and 9390, the 33%, 50% and 67% retracement levels of the recent 10160-7832 fall, are the resistance levels to eye.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

8300, 8020 SUPPORTS TO EYE; 9300 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE


8300, 8020 SUPPORTS TO EYE; 9300 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices tumbled 4.7%-6.3%, with the Dow closing below 20,000 mark for the first time since February 2017. This was after a steep rebound of nearly 5% from the bottom of the day in last hour or so which happened after the Senate obtained the votes to pass a coronavirus relief plan to expand paid leave.

WTI crude collapsed 24.4%, or $6.58, to settle at $20.37 per barrel, its lowest level since Feb. 2002. Brent shed 14.1%, or $4.07, to trade at $24.67, its lowest level since 2003.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.21% yesterday after trading around 0.77% midday Tuesday before details of the potential stimulus emerged.

European markets fell 4%-5.9%. The European Central Bank announced a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that will use €750 billion (approx. $821 billion) to purchase securities to help support the European economy.

AT HOME

Bloodbath on the street continued as Sensex and Nifty plunged 5.6% each to close at the lowest level in 3 years and 38 month respectively. Sensex settled at 28869, down 1710 points while Nifty finished at 8468, down 498 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 5.5% and 6.2% respectively to close at the lowest level in 4-year and 6 years respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Telecom and Finance indices leading the losses, down 9.5% and 7.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 5085 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 300 cr and 1247 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3636 cr.

Rupee ended unchanged at 74.26/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.2%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 200 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 8555, the bottom made last week, continued to be the next meaningful support.

Nifty, after achieving 8555 target, went further to touch a low of 8407 before closing at 8468 and is set to open near 8300 today.

8300, where a trendline adjoining bottoms made in December 2011 and August 2013 is placed, is the next support to eye. Below 8300, 8020, where 500-week moving average is placed, would be the next crucial and major support.

Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 9300.