Tuesday, August 14, 2018

11235 BELOW 11340; 11495 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE


11235 BELOW 11340; 11495 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.2%-0.5%, with the Dow and S & P 500 extending the losing streak to fourth straight day, on the back of ongoing Turkey crisis.

Turkish shares dropped 11% after already falling more than 14% on Friday. Turkey's central bank tried to assuage market fears, stating it will provide as much liquidity as needed to the country's banks. Lira pared losses to trade at 6.86 after touching a low of 7.20 earlier in the session.

Energy stocks fell as US crude fell 43 cents to settle at seven-week low of $67.20.

European markets fell upto 0.8%

AT HOME

Benchmark indices fell about six tenth of a percent to extend the losing streak to second straight day. Sensex lost 224 points to settle at 37645 while Nifty finished at 11355, down 74 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and Energy indices tumbled 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while IT index climbed 1.2%, becoming to gainer, followed by 0.8% higher Teck index.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 972 cr and 722 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 479 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of RS 216 cr.

Rupee plunged 1.56% to end at 69.93/$, marking its steepest fall since 3rd September 2013 and hitting a record low.

Retail inflation hit a nine-month low of 4.17% in July as against 4.92% in June. Core CPI however remained elevated at 6.3% vs 6.4% in June.

Tata Steel reported 113% y-o-y rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 1954 cr. Revenue rose 27.5% to Rs 37833 cr. EBITDA rose 30% to Rs 6468 cr and operating margin expanded to 17.1%. Consolidated volumes were up 12.4% and ebitda/tonne stood at Rs 9874.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up more than a percent while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down half a percent each. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 11360, the bottom made last week, is the immediate support, Upon breach of 11360, 11235, the bottom made on 2nd August, will be the next support to eye.

Nifty, after touching a low of 11340 in first hour, closed at 11355 and is set to open flat today.

A breach of 11340, the low made yesterday, would confirm a "sell" on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction. 11235, the bottom made on 2nd August, would be the next support to eye if that happens.

11495, the top made last week, is the immediate resistance.

Sun Parma will report its quarterly earnings today.

Monday, August 13, 2018

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11500 HURDLE; 11360 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


NIFTY RETREATS FROM 11500 HURDLE; 11360 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.7%-0.8% as financial crisis in Turkey spooked global markets.

Turkish lira briefly plunged 20% to a record low after Trump authorized the doubling of metals tariffs on Turkey. Turkish stocks also fell with the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF down 14.5%. The drop came after a Turkish delegation returned from Washington with no apparent progress being made on the detention of an American pastor detained in Turkey in 2016. Turkish authorities accuse Brunson of supporting a failed coup attempt earlier that year.

US Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month and "core CPI" hit 2.4%, marking its biggest jump since September of 2008.

US treasury prices rose with the benchmark 10-year yield down to 2.875% while the two-year yield slipped to 2.61%.

WTI crude rose 82 cents, or 1.2% to $67.63 a barrel and Benchmark Brent crude oil was up 72 cents, or 1%, at $72.79 a barrel.

European markets tumbled 1%-2.5%. Euro dropped sharply against the dollar, following reports that the ECB is concerned over the impact of a weak Turkish lira on European lenders. U.K. economy grew 0.4% in the second-quarter of the year.

For the week, Nasdaq gained 0.4% but Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.6% and 0.25% respectively. In Europe, FTSE was up 0.1% but DAX and CAC tumbled 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. In Asia, while Nikkei fell 1%, Hang Seng and Shanghai surged 2.5% and 2% respectively.

For the week, U.S. crude dropped more than 1%, posting its sixth straight weekly loss for its worst losing streak since August 2015. Brent was down roughly half a percent.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices fell four tenth of a percent on the last day of the week. Sensex lost 155 points to settle at 37869 while Nifty finished at 11429, down 41 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 0.8% each. BSE Metal and Basic Material indices tumbled 2% and 1.6% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Consumer Durable and IT indices were the top gainers, up 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs bet sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 511 cr and 223 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 105 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 458 cr.

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 68.82/$.

India's factory output growth stood at five month high of 7% in June, up from 3.93% in May.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.8% and 0.6% respectively, extending winning streak to third straight week.

SBI reported mixed set of results. The bank posted a net loss of Rs 4876 cr for the June quarter on account of higher provisions and treasury losses. Provisions jumped 115% y-o-y to Rs 19228 cr but fell 31.5% q-o-q. NII grew 23.8% to Rs 21729 cr. Gross NPA as a percentage of total loans improved to 10.69% from 10.91% q-o-q while net NPA ratio fell to 5.29% from 5.73%. Gross slippages for the quarter fell to Rs 14349 cr, down from Rs 32821 cr q-o-q. Slippages outside watchlist were elevated at Rs 11000 cr plus levels. Loan growth stood at 5.5%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.9%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points lower start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty took out 11430 hurdle, we had given 11500-15550 as the next target zone. The benchmark, after touching a high of 11495 on Thursday, eased to end at 11430 on Friday and is set to open below 11400 today.

11360, the bottom made last week, which also coincides with a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on the daily chart, is the immediate support to eye. Upon breach of 11360, 11235, the bottom made on 2nd August, will be the next support to eye.

11495 is the immediate hurdle above which 11550-11600 would be the next target zone.

Traders are advised to keep sl of 11360 in long positions.

Tata Steel will report its quarterly earnings today.

Friday, August 10, 2018

10500-10550 CONTINUES TO BE TARGET ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10370


10500-10550 CONTINUES TO BE TARGET ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10370

WORLD MARKETS

Nasdaq ended marginally in the green while Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.1% respectively

Nasdaq extended the winning streak to eighth day, as Amazon rose 0.6% to an all-time high while Apple jumped 0.8%. Energy and financial shares dragged the S & P 500 lower.

The producer's price index remained unchanged in July, as against expected gain of 0.2%.

Dollar index rose half a percent to 95.60, marking a 13-month high.

US crude fell 13 cents to $66.81/bbl.

European markets ended mixed with FTSE and Italy in red while DAX and CAC in green.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty ended with gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively after a rangebound but choppy trade, hitting yet another record high. Sensex added 137 points to settle at 38024 while Nifty finished at 11470, up 20 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Realty index soared 2.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.4% higher Metal index. Telecom and Consumer Durable indices were the top losers, down 1.3% and 0.9% respectively.

FIIs net bought stock and stock futures worth Rs 371 cr and 559 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 282 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 85 cr.

Rupee depreciated 5 paise to end at 68.67/$.

Eicher Motors' results were largely in-line with estimates. Net profit rose 25% to Rs 576 cr while revenues rose 27% to Rs 2547 cr. EBITDA was up 30% at Rs 809 cr and margin expanded 70 bps to 31.8%.

Aurobindo Pharma’s consolidated net profit fell 12.1% to Rs 456 cr while revenue was up 15.5% to Rs 4250 cr. EBITDA fell 7.4% to Rs 779 cr and margin fell to 18.3% from 22.9%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Shanghai is flat while Hang Seng and Nikkei are down 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

After Nifty crossed 11428 top made on Monday, we have been working with target zone of 11500-11550. Nifty, yesterday touched a high of 11495, closed at 11470 and is set to open flat today.

10500-10550 continues to be upside target zone to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11370, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

SBI, Hindalco and Glenmark will report their quarterly earnings today.

Thursday, August 9, 2018

11500-11550 IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11360


11500-11550 IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11360

WORLD MARKETS

Nasdaq gained 0.1% while S & P 500 ended marginally in the red but Dow fell 0.2% as China announced new tariffs on US goods. Nasdaq rose for the seventh consecutive day as Facebook and Amazon gained.

After the U.S. Trade Representative's office released a finalized list of $16 billion worth in Chinese goods that will be hit with tariffs, taking effect on Aug. 23, China announced that it will levy 25% tariffs on U.S. gasoline, diesel, large passenger cars and motorcycles and other goods.

Shares of big exporters Caterpillar and Boeing fell 2% and 1% respectively.

US crude tumbled 3.2% to $66.94/bbl, marking a 7-week low. Brent too fell 3.2% to $72.28.

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.8% but other markets fell 0.1%-0.4%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by 0.6% each after a choppy trade to hit a fresh record high. Sensex added 222 points to settle at 37888 while Nifty finished at 11450, up 60 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however underperformed, rising just 0.2% and 0.03% respectively. BSE Energy and Telecom indices soared 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Healthcare, Auto and Power indices fell 0.3% each, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 569 cr, 659 cr and 85 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 30 cr.

Rupee appreciated 6 paise to end at 68.62/$.

Lupin’s results disappointed on all the counts. Net profit plunged 43.4% y-o-y to Rs 203 cr while Revenue fell 0.4% to Rs 3856 cr. EBITDA tumbled 31.4% to Rs 527 cr and margins contracted 620 bps to 13.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

After two-day consolidation, Nifty broke the 11430 top made on Monday and suged all the way to 11460 before closing at 11450.

11500-11550, as mentioned in yesterday's report, contiues to be next upside target zone to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11360, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

Eicher Motors, Aurobindo Pharma, Bharat Forge and JSPL will report their quarterly earnings today.

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION


NIFTY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION

WORLD MARKETS

Dow rose 0.5% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq added 0.3% each with the S & P 500 coming within half a percent of the record high hit in January.

Dow got a boost from 2% higher Caterpillar while Nasdaq was aided by Amazon and Tesla. Shares of Tesla surged more than 10% after CEO Elon Musk said he was considering taking the company private.

US crude rose 16 cents to $69.17/bbl.

European markets gained 0.4%-1.3%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after trading in a narrow range through the session. Sensex settled 26 points lower at 37665 while Nifty added 2 points to finish at 11389. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however ended lower by 0.2% each. BSE Metal and Consumer Durable indices surged 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Oil & Gas and Energy indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.9% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 315 cr and 131 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 21 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 320 cr.

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 68.68/$.

M & M posted 67% rise in June quarter net profit at Rs 1257 cr. Revenue rose 23% to Rs 13358 cr. EBITDA rose 47% to Rs 2110 cr and operating margin expanded 140 bps to 15.8%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng and Nikkei are up 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while Shanghai is down 0.2%. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 11428, the top made on Monday, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which 11550 would be the next target to eye.

Nifty, after touching a high of 11429 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 11389.

Roughly, 11430 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove and if that happens 11500-11550 would be the next target zone.

11300 is the immediate support below which 11235, the low made last week, would be the important support to eye.

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

10550 ABOVE 10428; 10235 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


10550 ABOVE 10428; 10235 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.2%-0.6%, with Nasdaq on top, as Facebook surged 4.5%.

Berkshire Hathaway and Tyson Foods both report better-than-expected profits.

Earlier, Shanghai Composite ended lower by 1.3% as trade uncertainty dampened sentiment.

British pound slid after Britain's international trade minister Liam Fox said there was a 60% chance of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.

European markets, except a marginally higher FTSE, ended with modest cuts. Basic resources sector slipped the most on the back of trade uncertainty.

AT HOME

After gaining more than half a percent in the initial trade, Sensex and Nifty indices gave nearly half of the gains through the session to end higher by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Sensex settled at 37692, up 136 points while Nifty added 26 points to finish at 11387. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. BSE Bankex and Telecom index soared 1.1% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Healthcare indices fell 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 249 cr and 349 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 146 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 219 cr.

Rupee depreciated 28 paise to end at 68.88/%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.4%-0.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that "Upon crossover of 11390, the top made last week, 11550 would be the next target to eye". Nifty, after touching a high of 11428, slipped to end at 11387, but is set to open higher today.

11428, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle, above which, 11550 would be the next target to eye.

11235, the bottom made last week, continues to be important immediate support.

M & M and PNB will report their quarterly earnings today.

Monday, August 6, 2018

10550 ABOVE 10390; 11235 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


10550 ABOVE 10390; 11235 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

US indices, led by gain in Apple and IBM, rose 0.1%-0.5% on Friday, after digesting newly proposed tariffs on U.S. goods by China and fresh jobs data.

The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs in July, lower than the expected gain of 190,000.  However, jobs growth for June was revised up to 248,000 from 213,000, while wages grew by 2.7% in July on a y-o-y basis, meeting expectations and unemployment fell a tenth of a percentage point to 3.9%.

U.S. trade deficit surged 7.3% to $46.3 bn, its biggest increase in more than 1-1/2 years in June as the boost to exports from soybean shipments faded and higher oil prices lifted the import bill.

China said it will slap tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods, with charges ranging from 5-25%.

US crude fell 47 cents to settle at $68.49/bbl as trade tensions weighed on the market. Brent fell 31 cents to $73.14.

European markets climbed 0.4%-1.1%. Euro zone retail sales grew 0.3% month on month and 1.2% y-o-y June. Sterling briefly fell below $1.30 on after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in an interview that there was an "uncomfortably high" risk of a no-Brexit deal.

For the week, Dow ended just marginally higher while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.8% and 1% respectively. In Europe, FTSE and CAC fell 0.6% each while DAX plunged 1.9%. In Asian Hang Seng and Shanghai nosedived 3.9% and 4.6% respectively while Nikkei was off 0.8%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices soared 1% with Nifty at fresh record high on closing basis. Sensex soared 391 points to settle at 37556 while Nifty finished at 11360, up 116 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Bankex leading the tally, up 1.6%, followed by 1.5% higher Consumer Durable and Metal indices.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 6 cr, 481 cr and 20 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 87 cr.

Rupee was trading at 68.60/$, appreciating 9 paise compared to previous close.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.6% and 0.7% respectively.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are marginally in the green while Hang Seng is nearly a 1%. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points higher start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that having broken 10250 support, next support zone for Nifty is 11210-11185, where a gap, made by a gap up opening on 27th July, was placed.

Nifty however surged 116 points to settle at 11360 and is set to open higher today.

Upon crossover of 11390, the top made last week, 11550 would be the next target to eye.

11235, the low made last week, is the important immediate support to eye.

Adani Ports and Britannia will report their quarterly earnings today.