Monday, July 31, 2017

10115-9928 IS THE IMMEDIATE RANGE

10115-9928 IS THE IMMEDIATE RANGE

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow gained 0.2% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.1% each of Friday.

U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the quarter ended June. While the reading met expectations, the 1.9% growth recorded in the first half of the year suggested it was unlikely that full-year growth would exceed 2.5%. Consumer sentiment for July topped expectations at 93.4.

Dollar index slipped nearly two-third of a percent to 93.34 following GDP data.

Amazon.com shares fell as more than 4% on the back of much weaker-than-expected quarterly results.

European markets lost 0.4%-1%. Euro zone economic confidence surged to a 10-year high in July. Spanish gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.9% in the second quarter of the year. French GDP rose 0.5% while the U.K.'s GDP inched 0.3% higher over the same period.

For the week, S & P 500 and Nasdaq ended slightly lower while Dow rose 1%. In Europe, FTSE and DAX fell 1.1% and 0.6% respectively but CAC was up 0.3%. In Asia, Hang Seng and Shanghai added 1% and 0.5% respectively but Nikkei fell 0.7%.

North Korea test launched a projectile on Friday. In response, the U.S. flew two B-1B bombers over the peninsula and urged countries in the region to do more to tackle the issue.

AT HOME

After falling about three fourth of a percent, benchmark indices recouped most of the losses in the late noon trade to end just marginally lower. Sensex settled at 32310, down 73 points while Nifty lost 6 points to finish at 10014. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.5%and 0.4% respectively. BSE Healthcare and Metal indices tumbled 1.7% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top gainers, up 1% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 223 cr and 1744 cr but net bought stock futures worth Rs 150 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 425 cr.

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to end at 64.15/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.9% and 1% respectively, extending the winning streak to fourth straight week.

L & T reported better-than-expected revenue and net profit while margin was a miss. Net profit rose 24.4% to Rs 1066 cr. Revenue rose 9.7% to Rs 23990 cr. EBIDTA rose 9% to Rs 2057 cr and margin contracted 6 bps to 8.6%. The company won new orders worth Rs. 26,352 during the quarter. Consolidated order book, at the end of quarter, stood at Rs. 2,62,860 crore, marginally higher by 2% yoy. Company maintained full year guidance of revenue, margin and order inflow growth.

OUTLOOK

China's July manufacturing PMI has come in at 51.4, down from 51.7 in June.

Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In Friday's report we had mentioned that immediate support on the hourly chart of Nifty had moved to 9960, a sustained trading below which will confirm a "sell" on the hourly chart.

Nifty, while touched a low of 9945, didn't sustain there and rebounded to close at 10014.

9945 also roughly coincides with the previous hurdle of 9928 which makes 9945-9928 an important immediate support to eye. Below 9928, 9792, the bottom made in mid-July, would be the next important support to eye.

10115, the top made last week, is the important immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.


Tech Mahindra will report its quarterly earnings today.

Friday, July 28, 2017

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER ACHIEVING 10070 TARGET

NIFTY RETREATS AFTER ACHIEVING 10070 TARGET

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow gained 0.4% but S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.1% and 0.6% yesterday as technology stocks reversed initial gains to end in red.

Facebook soared nearly 6% to a record before paring gains after reporting better-than-expected earnings, sales and monthly active user data.

Uncertainty about what tax reform might look like grew after House speaker Paul Ryan said in a statement that a border adjustment tax is now off the table.

Durable goods orders rose 6.5% in June and initial jobless claims came in at 244,000, slightly above the expected 240,000.

In Europe, FTSE and CAC fell 0.1% while DAX lost 0.8%. Gfk German consumer sentiment index rose to 10.8 in August, up from 10.6 in July.  

AT HOME

After gaining nearly a percent in the morning, benchmark indices plunged in the noon trade to give away all the gains and end absolutely flat, i.e. 32383 for Sensex and 10020 for Nifty. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices ended with cuts of 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Telecom and IT indices tumbled 1.9% and 1.8% respectively to become top losers among sectoral indices while Finance index and Bankex were top gainers, up 1.4% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futrues worth Rs 1870 cr and 2097 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 610 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 660 cr.

Rupee appreciated 26 paise to end at 64.11/$.

Maruti reported Net profit and margins that were above market expectations while revenue was a beat.

HCL Tech reported in-line with expectation dollar revenue growth of 4% while operating margin at 20.1% was better-than-expected. The company maintained constant currency revenue growth guidance of 10.5-12.5% for current fiscal.

Dr Reddy reported revenue of Rs 3320 cr which was in-line but Net profit at Rs 66.6 cr and margin at 10.1% were a miss. The ADR plunged 8% after negative cues from concall.

ICICI Bank's net profit was above estimate while NII growth was slightly below estimate. While the watchlist went up by more than 1000 cr, slippages came at a 7-quarter low. Gross NPA ratio stood at 7.99%, up from 7.89% q-o-q.

ITC reported 4% revenue growth and 8% profit growth which were in-line with estimate. EBIDTA margin stood at 27.1%. Cigaratte revenuee rose 6.6% and volume were higher than expectation. FMCG and Hotel revenue rose 9% and 6% respectively.

ONGC reported net realisation or around 51/barrel. Margin at 46.3% and profit at Rs 3885 cr were lower-than-expected.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.2%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 70 points lower start for our market.

We had been working with the upside target of 10070 after 9928 hurdle was taken out.

Nifty yesterday touched a high of 10115 before slipping to close at 10020, achieving the above mentioned target and vindicating our view.

After a heady run-up of 5.4% in July derivative series, and achieving the first major upside target of 10000 that we had given in our special report published on 3rd April, 2017, there are chances of Nifty entering into a consolidation mode.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9960 but Nifty is likely to open below that. In that case, the bottom made during the first hour would be important, a breach of which would confirm a sell on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction. Next support would come around 9900, where a trendline adjoining major tops on hourly chart lands a support.

Traders are advised to cut long positions if first hour low is breached.


L & T will report its quarterly earnings today.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 10070 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9940

NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 10070 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9940

WORLD MARKETS                             

S & P 500 ended little changed while Dow and Nasdaq gained 0.4% and 0.2% respectively on the back of strong earnings and after digesting Fed meeting outcome.

Fed, as was widely expected, left interest rate unchanged. The post meeting statement however noted that normalization of the balance sheet would be implemented "relatively soon". This was a slight tweak compared to the Fed's use of "this year" after the June meeting. The central bank also said, however, inflation remains below its 2% target.

The dollar sold off around 0.7%to 93.40 in reaction to the statement. 10-year treasury yield also fell to 2.29%.  Two-year yield held around 1.363%.

Boeing, Coca-Cola and Ford posted better-than-expected quarterly results.

WTI crude rose 1.8% to $48.75 a barrel after the Energy Information Administration reported a crude drawdown of 7.2 million barrels.

European markets gained 0.2%-0.6%. The U.K. economy grew 0.3% during the second quarter, up from 0.2% in the first quarter.

AT HOME

It was yet another historic day as benchmark indices touched a fresh record high and Nifty closed above the 10000 mark for the first time ever. Nifty finished at 10021, up 56 points while Sensex added 154 points to settle at 32382. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Except 0.4% and 0.2% lower Telecom and IT indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Metal index leading the tally, up 1.7%, followed by 0.9% higher Utilities and Capital Goods indices.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 61 cr and 801 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 698 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 677 cr.

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to end at 64.35/$.

Yes Bank reported better-than-expected earnings and improvement in asset quality for the June quarter. Net profit rose 32% y-o-y to Rs 965 cr and NII surged 44% to Rs 1809 cr. Gross NPA ratio improved to 0.97% from 1.05% q-o-q and net NPA ratio improved to 0.39% from 0.81%. The Board also approved Stock Split in the ratio of 5 for 1.

HDFC's net profit fell 16.8% to Rs 1556 cr. Net interest margin fell to 4% from 4.31% y-o-y and 4.1% q-o-q. Gross NPA ratio deteriorated to 1.12% from 0.79% q-o-q.

In a dramatic development, Nitish Kumar yesterday resigned as Bihar Chief Minister following his standoff with ally Lalu Prasad Yadav. However, he will be sworn-in again as the Chief Minister today as BJP has decided to support to him.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets, except half a percent lower Shanghai, are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we have been working with target of 10070 after 9928 hurdle was taken out. Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a high of 10026, closed at 10021 and is set to open further higher today.

10070 continues to be immediate upside target. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9940, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.


ICICI Bank, ITC, HCL Tech, ONGC, Maruti, Idea, Dr Reddy, Glenmark and Biocon will report their quarterly earnings today.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

NIFTY HITS 10000; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9890

NIFTY HITS 10000; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9890

WORLD MARKETS                             

While Nasdaq ended flat, S & P 500 and Dow rose 0.3% and 0.5% respectively after major companies reported better-than-expected quarterly results and oil prices rose.

Caterpillar and McDonald's reported quarterly results that beat market expectations.

WTI and Brent crude climbed 3.3% each to $47.89 and $50.20 respectively after U.S. oil producer Anadarko announced plans to cut capital spending

US home prices rose 5.7% in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Consumer confidence data for July beat expectations.

The benchmark 10-year note yield rose to 2.32%, while the two-year yield hovered around 1.382%.

European markets gained 0.4%-0.8%

AT HOME

It was a historic day as Nifty hit the five figure mark for the first time ever at the open though both the key indices ended marginally in the red. Sensex lost 18 points to settle at 32228, while Nifty finished at 9964, down 2 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices m=however gained 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Telecom and Metal indices climbed 2% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Capital Goods and Industrial indices were the top losers, down half a percent each.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 271 cr and 282 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 998 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 210 cr.

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to end at 64.38/$.

Axis Bank reported 16% dip in June quarter net profit at Rs 1306 cr. NII grew by 2.2% to Rs 4616 cr. Advances grew at 12%. Asset quality was stable during the quarter as gross NPA declined to 5.03% from 5.04% q-o-q, though net NPA increased to 2.3% from 2.11%. Total slippages were down to Rs 3519 cr from Rs 4811 cr q-o-q however non-watchlist slippages surged to Rs 2722 cr from Rs 1245 cr.

Bharti Airtel beat expectations of all counts. Net profit rose 31.3% q-o-q to Rs 618 cr. Revenue was flat at Rs 21958 cr. Operating profit fell 2.1% to Rs 7823 cr and margin contracted by 80 bps to 35.6%.

Hero MotoCorp reported mixed earnings with beat on margin but revenue and realization were lower than expected. Net profit rose 3.5% to Rs 914 cr. Revenue rose 7.5% to Rs 8745 cr. EBIDTA rose 5.4% to Rs 1230 cr and margin came in at 16.3% against 16.6%. Realisation was up 1.5%.

Vedanta reported 67% y-o-y jump in June quarter net profit at Rs 2270 cr. Consolidated revenue rose 26.3% to Rs 19342 cr. Operating profit rose 41.6% to Rs 4874 cr and margin improved to 26.6% from 23.8%.

Asian Paints reported 20.2% dip in net profit at Rs 441 cr. Revenue rose 4.9% to Rs 4228 cr. EBIDTA fell 18.5% to Rs 665 cr and margin fell 451 bps to 15.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty crossed the 9928 hurdle, we have been working with the target of 10070. Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a high of 10011, slipped to end at 9965 and is set to open marginally higher today.

10070 continues to be immediate upside target to eye. 9890 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to.


Fed, at the end of it’s two day meeting today, is largely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. Markets however will parse it’s statement for clues about the unwinding of $4.5 trillion balance sheet and what the Fed thinks about U.S. inflation.

NIFTY-FIRST TARGET OF 10000 ACHIEVED


IN OUR SPECIAL REPORT DATED 3RD APRIL 2017, HAD GIVEN FIRST TARGET OF 10000 FOR NIFTY IN 5-6 MONTHS, WHICH HAS BEEN ACHIEVED

http://prudentbroking.com/SpecialReport.aspx

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

NIFTY TAKES OUT 9928 HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9890 FOR TARGET OF 10070

NIFTY TAKES OUT 9928 HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9890 FOR TARGET OF 10070

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq gained 0.4% yesterday.

The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI hit its highest level in six months. Existing home sales fell 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.52 million units last month, more than expected.

WTI oil rose 1.3% to $46.34 and Brent added 1.1% to $48.60 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said it would reduce its exports in August and on reports that Nigeria, which was originally exempt from the OPEC-led production cut, would be capping its output.

In Europe, FTSE plunged 1%, DAX fell 0.2% while CAC and Italy gained 0.2% and 0.6% respectively.  Auto sector was under pressure after reports that the European Commission is investigating collusion between German carmakers. Flash IHS Markit's monthly purchasing manager's index for the euro zone came in at 55.8 in July, down from 56.3 in June.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty climbed 0.7% and 0.5% respectively to scale fresh record high. Sensex settled at 32246, up 217 points while Nifty added 51 points to finish at 9966. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however underperformed, gaining just 0.3% each. BSE Telecom index surged 1.4%, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices, followed by 1% higher IT and Teck indices. Metal and Healthcare indices were the top losers, down 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 367 cr and 519 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 1407 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 669 cr.

Rupee depreciated 2 paise to end at 64.34/$.

Indiabulls Housing reported a 25% jump in the June quarter net profit at Rs 788 cr, helped by higher loan growth (at 33%), reduction in the cost of funds and the cost-to-income ratio. Gross non-performing loans improved to 0.80% from 0.84% last year, while net Non-Performing Assets, too, stood down at 0.31% from 0.36%.

Bharti Infratel reported 12% y-o-y dip in net profit at Rs 664 cr. Revenue rose 10% to Rs 3524 cr. While revenue growth was in-line, margin and net profit were better-than-expected.

Ambuja Cement reported 13.3% fall in net profit at Rs 392 cr. Operating income rose . Volume growth was in-line. Realisations were up 7% y-o-y and 1% q-o-q.

ZEE Entertainment reported a healthy advertisement revenue growth of 6.9%. Operating margins too were better-than-expected.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points higher start for our market.

Nifty yesterday climbed 51 points to finish at 9966, taking out the 9928 hurdle. Next target, as we have been mentioning, is around 10070. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9890, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.


Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Hero Motocorp, VEDL and Asian Paints will report their quarterly earnings today.

Monday, July 24, 2017

10070 ABOVE 9928; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9792

10070 ABOVE 9928; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9792

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended marginally lower on Friday with Nasdaq snapping it's 10-day winning streak.

GE fell more than 2% after sales for June quarter fell 12% y-o-y.

WTI crude plunged 2.5% to settle below $46 a barrel.

European markets fell 0.5%-1.7% with DAX leading the losses as euro climbed to trade near two-year high against the dollar.

Euro rose 0.4% to $1.167, building on Thursday's solid gains after the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi said that tapering will be discussed in the autumn. Dollar index fell about 0.3% to 93.97.

For the week, Dow lost 0.3% but S & P 500 and Nasdaq added 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. In Europe, FTSE gained 1% but DAX and CAC tumbled 3.1% and 2.2% respectively. In Asia, Nikkei fell 0.1% while Hang Seng and Shanghai were up 1.2% and 0.5% respectively.

AT HOME

After gaining about half a percent in first hour, benchmark indices plunged nearly a percent from the top of the day, only to recoup all the lost ground and finally ended higher by four tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 32029, up 124 points while Nifty climbed 42 points to finish at 9915. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices were almost flat.

BSE Energy and IT indices added 2.2% and 1.6% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty and Telecom indices were the top losers, down 1.1% and 1% respectively. Wipro soared 6.1%, becoming top Nifty gainer, followed by 3.6% higher Reliance Industries. Bharti Airtel and Indiabulls Housing were the top losers, down 2.1% each. BSE advance-decline ratio stood at 1:1.1.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 13 cr, 215 cr and 1033 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 148 cr.

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to end at 64.32/$.

For the week, Sensex was little changed while Nifty gained 0.3%.

Reliance Industries surged 3.7% after Chairman Mukesh Ambani announced 1:1 bonus and launch of JioPhone at the 40th AGM of the company.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets, except a marginally higher Hang Seng, are trading with cuts of upto a percent with Nikkei leading the losses. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In Friday's report we had reiterated the view that 9928, the top made on 17th July, continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

Nifty, after touching a high of 9925, closed at 9915 and is set to open marginally lower today.

9928 continues to be immediate hurdle, upon decisive crossover of which, 10070 would be the next target.

Meanwhile, 9792, the bottom made last week, continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to.


HDFC Bank, ZEE Entertainment, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Bharti Infratel and Ambuja Cement will report their quarterly earnings today.

Friday, July 21, 2017

NIFTY RESISTED NEAR 9928 HURDLE; 9792 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY RESISTED NEAR 9928 HURDLE; 9792 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Nadaq rose 0.1% while S & P 500 and Dow ended marginally in the red yesterday amid rising political uncertainty in the US.

Media reports suggested that special counsel Robert Mueller is examining business dealings of President Donald Trump's businesses and those of his family and associates.

European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected. However ECB President Mario Draghi said policymakers would discuss potential changes to its bond-buying program this fall.

Euro surged nearly 1% to hit a high of $1.1655, its highest since August 24, 2015. Dollar index fell 0.6% to 94.24. US 10-year yield hit 2.255%, its lowest level since June 29. Gold rose 0.3% to $1245 an ounce.

European markets, except a 0.8% higher FTSE, ended with cuts of upto 0.3%.

WTI crude fell 0.7% to $46.79 a barrel.

AT HOME

After opening higher by about a fifth of a percent, benchmark indices saw a reversal of these gains through the session to end with cuts of of about a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 31904, down 51 points while Nifty lost 26 points to finish at 9873. BSE mid-cap index fell half a percent but the small-cap index managed to gain 0.2%. BSE Metal and IT indices fell 1% and 0.8% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Realty index was the top gainer, up 0.5%, followed by 0.2% higher Capital Goods and Finance indices.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 155 cr and 405 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 540 cr. DIIs' net buying and selling

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 64.43/$.

Kotak Mahindra Bank posted lower-than-expected 23% y-o-y rise in standalone net profit at Rs 913 cr. NII rose 17% to Rs 2245 cr. Net interest margin rose 10 bps to 4.5%. Gross NPA ratio stood at 2.58% as against 2.59% q-o-q while the Net NPA ratio improved to 1.25% from 1.26%.

Bajaj Auto posted 5.6% dip in net profit at Rs 924 cr while revenue fell 3.9% to Rs 5854 cr. Operating profit fell 20.2% to Rs 938 cr and margin declined 330 bps to 17.2%.

Reliance Industries' June quarter results beat street estimates on all counts. Net profit surged 28% y-o-y to Rs 9108 cr. Consolidated revenue rose 27.7% to Rs 90537 cr.  Gross Refining Margins recorded nine-year high of $11.9/bbl. Petrochem EBIT margin hit an all-time high of 15.8%.

Wipro reported better-than-expected June quarter earnings but guidance disappointed. Dollar revenue growth was up 0.9% and in constant currency terms, the growth stood at 0.3%. Operating margin came in at 16.8%. The company guided for a dollar revenue growth of minus 0.5% to 1.5% for July-September quarter. The company announced Rs 1100 cr buyback, which was higher than expected.

Mr. Ram Nath Kovind was elected as the 14th President of India yesterday.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest change and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 9928, the top made on Monday, is the immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

The benchmark, after touching a high of 9922, slipped to end at 9873, vindicating our view.

9928 continues to be important immediate hurdle, a decisive crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. 10070 would be the next target if that happens.

9792 continues to be immediate support, with the stop-loss of which existing longs can be held on to.

Reliance Industries will hold its AGM today.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

10070 ABOVE 9928; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9792

10070 ABOVE 9928; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9792

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.3%-0.6% to close at fresh record high.

Morgan Stanley reported better-than-expected second-quarter results across the board. IBM plunged more than 4% after reporting mixed quarterly results, with earnings per share topping expectations but sales declining for the 21st straight quarter.

Housing starts jumped 8.3% last month, hitting their highest level since February. Mortgage applications rose 6.3%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note yield near 2.27% and the two-year yield around 1.36%.

European markets added 0.2%-0.8%

AT HOME

After a positive start, benchmark indices added some more weight through the session to end higher by about three fourth of a percent. Sensex soared 244 points to settle at 31955 while Nifty finished at 9900, up 72 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1% each. All the BSE sectoral indices closed in green with Telecom and Metal indices leading the tally, up 3.1% and 2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1047 cr and 206 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 50 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 12 cr.

Rupee appreciated 4 paise to end at 64.28/$.

The Union Cabinet yesterday gave an in-principle approval to the proposed acquisition of government’s 51.1% stake in HPCL by ONGC, which will result in HPCL becoming a listed ONGC subsidiary. However, SEBI may exempt the latter from making an open offer to buy another 26% stake from the public.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 9792, the bottom made on Tuesday, is now the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

Yesterday, Nifty in fact opened higher and added more weight through the session to end 72 points higher at 9900.

9928, the top made on Monday, is the immediate hurdle to eye, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 10070 would be the next target to eye.

Meanwhile, traders can continue to hold existing longs with the stop-loss of 9792.

Reliance Industries, Wipro, Bajaj Auto and Kotak Mahindra Bank will report their quarterly earnings today.


ECB, in its policy meeting today, is widely expected to stay put on interest rates. Key thing to eye however would be whether it would announce changes to its bond-buying plan in September.

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

NIFTY HOLDS 9825 SUPPORT ON CLOSING BASIS; EXIT LONGS BELOW 9792

NIFTY HOLDS 9825 SUPPORT ON CLOSING BASIS; EXIT LONGS BELOW 9792

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow fell a fourth of a percent while S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.1% and 0.5% yesterday. Nasdaq hit a record intraday and closing high and extended its winning streak to eight straight day.

Netflix soared 13% to an all-time high after the company said it added 5.2 million total memberships during its second quarter. Facebook also hit a record intraday high. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America on the other hand fell despite exceeding expectations on top and bottom-line as bond trading revenue fell sharply.

Two more Republican senators announced that they would oppose the current Republican health care bill. Following the news, Senate Majority Leader called for a vote to repeal Obamacare without an immediate replacement. The inability to enact health-care reforms in the U.S. has led to questions about Trump's ability of tax reforms in the near future.

Dollar index fell about half a percent to a 10-month low of 94.45. The benchmark 10-year note yield slipped to 2.27%, while the two-year yield hovered around 1.35%.

European markets fell 0.2%-1.2%

Earlier, in China, the technology-heavy index ChiNext plunged 5.1% to close at its lowest since 2015 after renewed calls for stronger regulation.

AT HOME

Dragged down by ITC, benchmark indices plunged nearly a percent, marking the biggest single day fall since 2nd December, 2016 and 18th May 2017 for Sensex and Nifty respectively. Sensex tumbled 364 points to settle at 31711 while Nifty finished at 9827, down 89 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices lost 0.6% each. BSE FMCG index nosedived 6.1%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.1% lower Realty and Energy indices. IT, Teck and Healthcare indices were the top gainers, up 0.2% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 317 cr and 325 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1372 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 975 cr.

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to end at 64.32/$.

HUL reported better-than-expected 8.5% y-o-y rise in June quarter net profit at Rs 1283 cr. Revenue rose 4.8% to Rs 9222 cr. Operating profit at Rs 1866 cr and margin at 21.9% too were better than expectation. Underlying volume growth was flat on expected lines.

Ultratech reported 15% y-o-y rise in standalone net profit at Rs 891 cr for the June quarter. Revenue rose 6% to Rs 7520 cr. Operating profit grew by 9.7% to Rs 1560 cr and margin expanded by 70 bps to 23.5%. Sales volume was flat at 13.5 mt.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

Yesterday, Nifty, on the back of big gap-down opening in ITC, touched a low of 9792 in the initial trade and finally settled at 9827, barely holding the 9825 support we had mentioned in yesterday's report.

9792, the bottom made yesterday, is now the immediate support to eye, a breach of which will confirm a sell on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction. 34-DMA, placed around 9660, would be the next important support if that happens.


Traders are advised to keep a stop-loss of 9792 in trading longs.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9825

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9825

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices ended little changed with marginally lower Dow and S & P 500 and marginally higher Nasdaq.

BlackRock posted quarterly results that missed estimates on both revenue and profit.

Brent and WTI crude declined 1% to settle at $48.82 a barrel and $46.02 respectively. Copper prices rose to trade at their highest levels since February.

European markets, except a 0.4% higher FTSE, lost upto 0.4%. Basic resources were the top gainers following better-than-expected Chinese GDP data which grew at 6.9% in second quarter.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty ended with modest gains to set a fresh record high. Sensex added 54 points to settle at 32075 while Nifty finished at 9916, up 30 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however ended barely in the green. BSE Realty and Basic Material indices climbed 1.3% and 1% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while FMCG index nosedived 1.5%, becoming top loser, followed by 0.1% lower Capital Goods index.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 329 cr, 279 cr and 72 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 447 cr.

Rupee appreciated 10 paise to end at fresh 1-month high of 64.35/$.

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council yesterday increased the cess on cigarettes, giving out a strong message that any reduction in taxation on demerit goods will not be accepted.

The Gujarat high court today dismissed Essar Steel’s petition that had challenged the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) directive to banks for initiating insolvency proceedings against the company.

ACC reported better-than-expected earnings as consolidated net profit rose 32.6% y-o-y to Rs 326 cr. Revenue rose 20.5% to Rs 3959 cr. Operating profit shot up 38% to Rs 637 cr and margin expanded by 240 bps to 18.4%. Cement volume increased 10.1% to 6.74 mt.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a marginally higher Hang Seng, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto 0.6% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points lower start for our market.

Nifty yesterday touched a high of 9928 before closing at 9916, coming very close to the 9950-10000 target area we have been working with after 9710 hurdle was taken out.

9950-10000 continues to be upside target as well as resistance area. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9825, with the stop-loss of which existing longs should be held on to.


Ultratech Cement and HUL will report their quarterly earnings today.