19437 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 19767 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

19437 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT; 19767 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices gained 0.4%-0.8% as Treasury yields eased from multiyear highs.

 

Data showed the U.S. economy maintained fairly strong growth in the second quarter at an unrevised 2.1% annualized rate. Jobless claims totaled 204,000 for the week ending Sept. 23, lower than the expected 215,000 figure. Contracts to buy U.S. existing homes fell the most in nearly a year as high mortgage rates erode affordability.

 

Meanwhile negotiations on a U.S. spending bill continued before Oct. 1 deadline.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield, after hitting a high of 4.688%, reversed and closed 4 bps lower at 4.577%. Dollar index fell half a percent to 106.13. Gold fell 0.6% to $1865 per ounce.

 

WTI crude futures fell 2.1% to $91.72 per barrel and Brent fell 1.4% at $95.18.

 

European markets rose 0.1%-0.7%. Preliminary inflation figures from Germany showed inflation slowing more than expected.

 

Japan's Finance Minister said Japan would not rule out any options if there was any excessive volatility in currency moves, warning against speculative yen moves amid the currency’s fall.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices nosedived nearly a percent and closed at the lowest level after 1st September. Sensex settled at 65508, down 610 points while Nifty lost 193 points to finish at 19523. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 1.3% and 0.4% respectively. All the NSE sectoral indices ended lower, with IT and FMCG indices being the top losers, down 2.2% and 1.9% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 3364 cr, 3893 cr and 7741 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2711 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to end at 83.18/$.

 

For the September derivative series, Nifty gained 1.4%.

 

India's Current Account Deficit for Q1 came in at $9.2 bn (1.1% of GDP), much higher than the $1.3 bn in Q4 (0.1% of GDP) and higher than the expectation as well.

 

OUTLOOK

 

CPI in Japan rose 2.8% y-o-y in September, softening from the 2.9% gain in August. The core inflation rate came in at 2.5%, lower than the 2.6% expected.

 

Today morning, Hang Seng is up 2%, Nikkei is down 0.3% while Shanghai is shut. GIFT Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 19750-19800 was the immediate resistance zone while 19554, the low made Wednesday, was immediate support.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 19766, reversed and plunged all the way to 19492 before closing at 19523.

 

19437, the 78.6% retracement level of the 19223-20222 upmove, is the next downside level to eye; 19767, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 44182, the low made Wednesday, continues to be immediate support to eye, below which 43800-43600 would be next support area; 44800 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which, 45000 and 45250, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the recent fall, would be next upside levels to eye.

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19750-19800 IS THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE ZONE; 19554 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 19750-19800 IS THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE ZONE; 19554 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow fell 0.2%, S & P 500 was little changed while Nasdaq inched up 0.2%.

 

U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.2% in August, topping the 0.5% decline expected by economists.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 7 bps to 4.61%. Dollar index rose 0.4% to 106.65, it's highest level in 10-monhts. Gold plunged 1.3% to $1876 per ounce.

 

Oil jumped after U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected, adding to worries of supply tightness amid OPEC+ production cuts. Brent crude futures rose 2.8% to $96.55 and WTI futures climbed 3.6% to $93.68.

 

European markets fell upto 0.4%.

 

Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting showed that policymakers agreed on the need to maintain ultra-loose monetary settings but were divided on how soon the central bank could end negative interest rates.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling more than half a percent in first hour, benchmark indices reversed and surged 0.8% from the bottom to end higher by a fourth of a percent. Sensex settled at 66118, up 173 points while Nifty added 51 points to finish at 19716. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices surged 0.8% and 1% respectively. Nifty Pharma and Healthcare indices surged 1.2% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices, while Financial Services and Bank indices were the top losers, down 0.1% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 354 cr and 1189 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 864 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 386 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 1 paise to end at 83.22/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 0.9% and 0.4% respectively while Shanghai is up 0.2%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 19601, the low made Monday, which coincided with 34-DMA as well as the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, continued to be immediate support, while 19900 continued to be immediate hurdle on the way up.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 19554, rebounded to end at 19716.

 

19750-19800 is the immediate resistance zone, upon crossover of which, 19890 and 19970, the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels of the recent 20222-19554 fall, would be next upside levels to eye; 19554, the low made yesterday, is immediate support.

 

For Banknifty, 44182, the low made yesterday, coincided with a trendline adjoining recent bottoms and hence is the immediate support to eye; 44800 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which, 45000 and 45250, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the recent fall, would be next upside levels to eye.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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19437 BELOW 19600; 19900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

19437 BELOW 19600; 19900 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices tumbled 1.1%-1.6% after new home sales and consumer confidence data missed estimates.

 

Homes under contract came in at 675,000 for August, versus estimate for 695,000. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined to 103 in September from 108.7 in August and versus forecast of 105.5.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield was flat at 4.536%. Dollar index rose 0.2% to 106.18. Gold fell 0.9% to $1900 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures settled 0.7% higher at $93.96 a barrel and WTI futures rose 0.8% to $90.39.

 

In Europe, FTSE was little changed while DAX and CAC fell 1% and 0.7% respectively.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended marginally in the red after a rangebound session. Sensex settled at 65945, down 78 points while Nifty lost 10 points to finish at 19664. Nifty mid-cap index fell 0.2% but small-cap index rose 0.6%. Nifty Media and PSU Bank indices slipped 0.9% and 0.6% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while FMCG and Auto indices were the top gainers, up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 693 cr, 359 cr and 1197 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 715 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 8 paise to end at 83.23/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 0.3% each while Nikkei is down 0.8%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 50 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 19601, the low made Monday, which coincided with 34-DMA as well as the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, was the immediate while 19900 was the immediate hurdle on the way up.

 

Nifty ended little changed at 19664.

 

19601, the low made Monday, which coincided with 34-DMA as well as the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, continues to be immediate support, upon breach of which, 78.6% retracement level of the aforementioned upmove, placed at 19437, would be next downside level to eye; 19900 continues to be immediate hurdle on the way up.

 

For Banknifty, 44360, the 78.6% retracement level of the recent 43830-46310 upmove, continues to be immediate support, below which, the benchmark might revisit 43830 bottom made on 1st September; 45300-45400 is the immediate resistance zone.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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19437 BELOW 19600; 19900 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

19437 BELOW 19600; 19900 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow inched up 0.1% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.4% each, all snapping a 4-session losing streak.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 10 bps to 4.537%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Dollar index rose 0.4% to 105.95. Gold fell half a percent to $1916 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures settled 2 cents higher at $93.29 a barrel while WTI crude settled 35 cents lower at $89.68.

 

European markets fell 0.7%-1.2%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended little changed after a choppy session. Sensex settled at 66023, up 14 points while Nifty was absolutely flat at 19674. Nifty mid-cap index rose 0.7% while small-cap index was flat at 12481. Nifty Realty and Consumer Durables indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 1.5% and 0.5% respectively whereas IT and Media indices were the top losers, down 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 2333 cr and 1466 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 2339 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1579 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 21 paise to end at 83.14/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 0.8% each while Shanghai is marginally lower. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 45 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 19605, the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, where 34-DMA is also placed, was the crucial support to eye.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 19601, rebounded to end at 19674.

 

19601, the low made yesterday, which coincided with 34-DMA as well as the the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, is the immediate support to eye. If this level breaks, 78.6% retracement level of the aforementioned upmove, placed at 19437, would be next downside level to eye. 19900 is the immediate hurdle on the way up.

 

For Banknifty, 44360, the 78.6% retracement level of the recent 43830-46310 upmove, is the immediate support, below which, the benchmark might revisit 43830 bottom made on 1st September; 45400 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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19605 IS IMPORTANT SUPPORT TO EYE; 19950 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

19605 IS IMPORTANT SUPPORT TO EYE; 19950 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices fell 0.1%-0.3% on Friday, extending the losing streak to fourth straight day.

 

S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI dipped to a reading of 50.1 in September from a final reading for August of 50.2.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell 6 bps to 4.436%. Dollar index rose 0.2% to 105.58. Gold gained 0.3% to $1925 per ounce.

 

Brent futures settled 3 cents lower at $93.27 a barrel while WTI futures rose 40 cents to $90.03 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE inched up 0.1% but DAX and CAC were down 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. Economic activity in France fell much more quickly than expected in September. Separate survey data covering the whole euro zone showed that the economy likely contracted in the third quarter.

 

Earlier, the Bank of Japan on left interest rates unchanged at -0.1%, while maintaining its outlook and yield curve control policy, showing no impetus to end its massive economic stimulus measures.

 

For the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.9% and 3.6% respectively, marking the third straight negative week and worst weekly performance since March for each. Dow slid 1.9% on the week. Brent fell 0.3% while WTI eased 0.03% for the week, breaking a three-week streak of gains.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended lower by a third of a percent after a choppy session, extending the losing streak to fourth straight session. Sensex lost 221 points to settle at 66009 while Nifty finished at 19674, down 68 points. Nifty mid-cap index fell 0.1% while small-cap index rose 0.3%, snapping a 3-day losing streak. Except 3.5% and 0.2% higher PSU Bank and Auto indices respectively, all the NSE sectoral indices ended lower, with Healthcare and Pharma indices leading the losses, down 1.6% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 1327 cr and 1124 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 1126 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 801 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 16 paise to end at 82.93/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, snapping a 3-week winning streak and suffering the worst weekly cut in 15 months and 7 months respectively.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.7% but Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 1% and 0.4% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 20 points lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 19710, the low made Thursday, around which 20-DMA was also progressed, was the immediate support, upon breach of which, 34-DMA, placed around 19600, would be crucial support to eye.

 

Nifty fell to 19657 before closing at 19674.

 

19605, the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, where 34-DMA is also placed, is the crucial support to eye. If this level breaks, 78.6% retracement level of the aforementioned upmove, placed at 19437, would be next downside level to eye. On the way up, 19950 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which, 20222, the top made last week, would be bigger hurdle to eye. Meanwhile, trading shorts can be held on to with the stop-loss of 19950.

 

For Banknifty, 44360, the 78.6% retracement level of the recent 43830-46310 upmove, is the next downside level to eye, below which, the benchmark might revisit 43830 bottom made on 1st September. 45500 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which, 46310, the top made last week, would be bigger hurdle to eye.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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19600 BELOW 19710; 20000 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

19600 BELOW 19710; 20000 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices nosedived 1.1%-1.8%, notching a third straight day of losses as Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs and investors Markets also became concerned about a government shutdown.

 

Weekly jobless claims decreased by 20,000 to an eight-month low of 201,000 for the week ending Sept. 16, much lower than the 225,000 claims expected.

 

House Republican leaders sent the chamber into recess, bolstering fears that federal lawmakers won’t pass a bill to avert a government shutdown.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 8 bps to 4.496%. Dollar index fell 0.1% to 105.38. Gold fell 0.6% to $1920 per ounce.

 

Brent futures for November delivery settled down 23 cents to $93.30 a barrel, while WTI crude settled down 3 cents to $89.63.

 

European markets fell 0.7%-1.8%. The Bank of England keeping the policy rate at 5.25%, pausing its hiking cycle. The Swedish and Norwegian central banks both opted to hike interest rates, while the Swiss National Bank paused its hiking cycle.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices fell 0.8% each, extending the losing streak to third straight day and closing at the lowest level after the first week of this month. Sensex lost 570 points to settle at 66230 and Nifty finished at 19742, down 159 points. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.9% and 1.3% respectively. Except 0.03% higher Media index, all the NSE sectoral indices ended lower, with Bank and Financial Services indices leading the losses, down 1.7% each.

 

Rupee depreciated 2 paise to end at 83.09/$.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 3007 cr, 880 cr and 856 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1158 cr.

 

JP Morgan will add India to its emerging-market bond index from June 2024.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is down a percent but Hang Seng and Shanghai are modestly higher. GIFT Nifty is suggesting nearly 100 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 19840 and 19723, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, were the next downside levels to eye and had advised holding on to short positions with the stop-loss of 20100.

 

Nifty plunged all the way to 19710 before closing at 19742, achieving both the targets mentioned above and vindicating our view.

 

19710, the low made yesterday, around which 20-DMA has also progressed, is the immediate support, upon breach of which, 34-DMA, placed around 19600, would be crucial support to eye; 20000 is the immediate resistance on the hourly chart.

 

For Banknifty, 44360, the 78.6% retracement level of the upmove seen in September, is the next downside level to eye; 45700 is immediate hurdle.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

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19840, 19723 ARE DOWNSIDE LEVELS TO EYE; 20100 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

19840, 19723 ARE DOWNSIDE LEVELS TO EYE; 20100 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

U.S. indices fell 0.2%-1.5% after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but indicated another hike on the horizon.

 

As expected, the Fed held rates steady, but signaled that one more rate hike is expected before the end of the year. The central bank signaled it would end its hiking campaign after that increase and begin cutting rates next year — though keeping rates at a higher level for the year than signaled in June.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 5 bps to 4.411%, its highest level since November 2007. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 105.33. Gold was flat at $1931 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures for November delivery fell 0.9% to $93.53 barrel, while WTI for October delivery fell 1% to $90.28.

 

European markets gained 0.7%-1.6%. U.K. August inflation came in at 6.7%, down slightly from the previous month and also lower than the 7% estimate.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices plunged 1.2% each, extending Monday’s cuts and suffering worst fall since 21st July. Sensex settled at 66800, down 796 points while Nifty lost 232 points to finish at 19901. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.3% and 0.9% respectively. All the NSE sectoral indices ended in red, with Metal and Financial Services indices leading the losses, down 1.6% and 1.5% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 3111 cr, 2182 cr and 925 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 573 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 20 paise to end at 83.07/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are down a percent each while Shanghai is off 0.2%. GIFT Nifty is suggesting more than 100 points gap-down start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that a "Sell" on the hourly chart of Nifty will be confirmed below 20000 which will pave the way for further correction.

 

Nifty broke 20000 and plunged all the way to 19878 before closing at 19901. The benchmark is set to open near 19800 today.

 

19840 and 19723, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the recent 19223-20222 upmove, are the next downside levels to eye; 20100 is the immediate hurdle, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 45070 and 44777, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the upmove seen in September, are the downside levels to eye; 45900 is immediate hurdle.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

Please check https://www.prudentbroking.com/Disclaimert.aspx for detailed disclaimer.

ALL EYES ON THE FED

 

ALL EYES ON THE FED

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

On Monday, U.S. equity benchmark indices ended flat.

 

Yesterday, U.S. indices ended lower by 0.2%-0.3% ahead of latest interest rate decision and economic update from the Federal Reserve due Wednesday.

 

Fed is expected to leave interest rate unchanged but markets will watch for commentary around the path of inflation and future of monetary policy.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose 6 bps to 4.361%. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 105.21. Gold fell 0.1% to $1931 per ounce.

 

Oil prices eased after hitting 10-month highs. Brent crude futures settled 9 cents lower at $94.34 a barrel and WTI futures dropped 28 cents to $91.20.

 

In Europe, FTSE and CAC inched up 0.1% each but DAX was down 0.4%. Final euro zone inflation figures for August were revised down slightly to 5.2% y-o-y from 5.3%, with monthly inflation at 0.5%. The annual reading in July was 5.3%.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty fell 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, with Sensex snapping an 11-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 67596, down 241 points while Nifty lost 59 points to settle at 20133. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, snapping a 3-day winning streak. Nifty PSU Bank index surged 3.4%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.8% higher Auto index. Realty and Media indices were the top losers, down 1.4% and 1.3% respectively.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1237 cr, 333 cr and 535 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 553 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 8 paise to end at 83.27/$.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is flat while Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 100 points lower start for our market.

 

In Monday's report we had said that 20300, around which, a rising trendline adjoining tops made in December 2022 and July 2023 is placed, was the next upside level to eye and had advised trailing stop-loss in longs to 19950.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 20195, slipped to end at 20133. The benchmark is set to open near 20050 today.

 

20000 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, a sustained trading below which will confirm a "Sell" on the hourly chart and will pave the way for further correction; 20222, the top made last week, which roughly coincided with a trendline adjoining tops made in December 2022 and July 2023, is the immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 45700-45650 continues to be immediate support zone, upon breach of which, 45000 would be next support to eye; 47000, around which a rising trendline adjoining tops made in December 2022 and July 2023 is placed, continues to be upside level to eye.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

Please check https://www.prudentbroking.com/Disclaimert.aspx for detailed disclaimer.