NIFTY RETREATS FROM 10334 HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10025

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 10334 HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10025

WORLD MARKETS

US indices climbed 1.1%-1.7%, with the S&P 500 erasing its losses and entering positive territory for the year.

After rising for seven consecutive sessions, Brent oil futures fell $1.30, or 3.1%, to $41 a barrel while WTI fell $1.4, or 3.4%, to settle at $38.19 per barrel after Saudi Arabia said an extension of output cuts by OPEC+ nations would not include additional voluntary reductions by a trio of Gulf producers.

Main European markets fell 0.2%-0.4%. German industrial production fell by 17.9% in April from the previous month. This followed a 8.9% drop seen in March and marked an annual decline of 25.3%.

AT HOME

After rising nearly 1.8% in the initial trade, benchmark indices gave away most of the gains in afternoon plunge to end just modestly higher. Sensex settled at 34370, up 83 points while Nifty added 25 points to finish at 10167. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. BSE Oil & Gas and IT indices climbed 2.8% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Basic Material and Healthcare indices fell 0.9% each, becoming top losers.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 813 cr and 279 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 439 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1238 cr.

Rupee appreciated 4 paise to end at 75.54/$.

Titan reported a big beat on EBIDTA and net profit front. Net profit rose 21.1% y-o-y to Rs 357 cr.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 1% and 0.2% respectively but Nikkei is off half a percent. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 50 points higher start for our market.

Just to recall, we had turned our view on Nifty bullish after 9178 hurdle was taken out and have been advising holding on to long positions with a trailing stop-loss.

In yesterday's report we had said that 10334, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 12th March, would be the next target to eye and had advised trailing stop-loss to 10000 in long positions.

Nifty, after touching a high of 10328 in the initial trade, slipped to end at 10167 and is set to open above 10200 today.

10334, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 12th March, continues to be immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 10550, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 12430-7511 fall, would be important target/resistance to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10025, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs can be held on to.

10334 IS THE NEXT UPSIDE TRAGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10000

10334 IS THE NEXT UPSIDE TRAGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10000

WORLD MARKETS

US indices climbed 2.1%-3.2% on Friday, with Nasdaq hitting a record, after an unexpected surge in U.S. jobs raised hope that the economy is starting to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. employers added 2.5 million jobs last month — the largest gain on record — while the unemployment rate slid to 13.3%. This was against expectation of a drop of more than 8 million jobs and the unemployment rate of 19.5%, which would have been the highest since the 1930s.

Brent futures rose $2.07, or 5.2%, to $42.07 a barrel, while WTI futures gained $2.14, or 5.7%, to settle at $39.55 per barrel, hitting a 3-month high.

European markets rose 2.2%-4%. U.K. consumer confidence in late May fell to its lowest level since the global financial crisis, while retail sales plummeted 18% across the month. German factory orders fell 25.8% in May, which was much worse-than-expected.

For the week, US indices climbed 3.4%-6.8%, with the Dow leading the gains. European markets surged 6.7%-10.9%. Asian markets rose between 4.5%-7.9%.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty added 0.9% and 1.1% respectively, rising for the seventh day in last eight sessions and closing at the highest level since 11th March, marking a near 3-month high. Sensex settled at 34287, up 306 points while Nifty added 113 points to finish at 10142. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. Except 0.8% and 0.3% lower IT and FMCG indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green, with Metal and Telecom indices leading the tally, up 3.9% and 3.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 98 cr and 455 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 345 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 47 cr.

Rupee depreciated 8 paise to end at 75.58/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty soared 5.7% and 5.9% respectively, extending the winning streak to second straight week and closing at the highest level since the week ended 6th March, 2020, marking a 3-month high.

SBI reported lower-than-expected NII and net profit but improvement in asset quality. NII fell 0.8% y-o-y to Rs 22766 cr while net profit surged 327% to Rs 3581 cr, aided by stake sale in SBI cards worth Rs 2731 cr. Gross NPA ratio improved to 6.15% from 6.94% q-o-q while net NPA ratio improved to 2.23% from 2.65%. Fresh slippages stood fell to Rs 8105 cr from Rs 16525 Q-o-Q. The bank set aside Rs 11,893 crore as provisions against bad loans in the fourth quarter, compared to Rs 8,193 crore in the previous quarter.

L&T reported in-line with expected revenue and net profit number while margin missed estimate. Management commentary was cautious.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.5%-0.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 90 points higher start for our market.

In Friday's report we had said that 10176, the top made Wednesday, continued to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 10334, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 12th March, would be the next target to eye. We had also advised trailing the stop-loss in long positions to 9800.

Nifty, on Friday, rose to close at 10142 and is set to open above 10200 today.

10334, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 12th March, would be the next target to eye. Above 10334, 10550, the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 12430-7511 fall, would be important target/resistance to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart would have moved higher to 10000 after today's higher start and should work as fresh stop-loss for trading longs.

10176 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 9800 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

10176 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 9800 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow ended little changed while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.3% and 0.7%. Indices ended off-the highs touched in initial trade following disappointing jobs data and a late-day sell-off in tech shares.

The Labor Department said 1.877 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, topping estimate of 1.775 million. Continuing jobless claims rose sharply, nearly reaching 21.5 million.

Brent futures rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $39.85 a barrel while WTI crude futures gained 12 cents to settle at $37.41 per barrel.

European markets fell 0.2%-0.6%. Comments and forecasts from ECB weighed on the sentiment. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the euro zone faced an “unprecedented contraction. The central bank updated its forecasts, saying it now expects the economy to contract by 8.7% this year, before rebounding to 5.2% growth in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022.  ECB announced a 600 billion euro ($672 billion) expansion of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), a larger increase than expected, bringing the program’s total to more than 1 trillion euro.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty ended lower by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively after a choppy session, snapping six-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 33980, down 128 points while Nifty lost 32 points to finish at 10029. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices ended marginally in the red. BSE Bankex and Finance indices slipped 2.7% and 2.5% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Telecom and Teck indices were the top gainers, up 3.5% and 2.3% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 2905 cr and 722 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 1266 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 847 cr.

Rupee depreciated 12 paise to end at 75.58/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto half a percent while SGX Nifty is suggesting around 20 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 10176, the top made Wednesday, was the immediate hurdle and that immediate support on the hourly chart had moved up to 9800, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

Nifty slipped to touch a low of 9944 before closing at 10029 and is set to open near 10050 today.

10176, the top made Wednesday, continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 10334, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 12th March, would be the next target to eye.

9800 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

SBI and L&T will report their quarterly earnings today.

10334 ABOVE 10176; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9800

10334 ABOVE 10176; TRAIL STOP-LOSS  TO 9800

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.8%-2.1%, with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq rising for the fourth consecutive day while Dow rose for the third straight day. Nasdaq composite is now just 1.58% below its all-time high.

Yesterday's upmove came as Data from ADP showed private payrolls fell by 2.76 million in May — much less than the 8.75 million expected, giving credence to the notion that the worst of the Covid-19 economic slump may well be behind us.

Brent crude futures for August fell 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $39.50 a barrel while WTI crude for July gained 48 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $37.29 per barrel.

European markets surged 2.6%-3.9%. IHS Markit’s final composite PMI for May came in at 31.9 as against April’s 13.6 reading.

AT HOME

After rising nearly 2%, benchmark indices gave away more than half of the gains in last hour plunge to end higher by 0.8%, extending the winning streak to sixth straight day and closing at the highest level since 11th March. Sensex settled at 34109, up 284 points while Nifty added 82 points to finish at 10061. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 1.2% respectively.  BSE Realty index and Bankex were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, rising 3.1% and 2.1% respectively while Telecom and Power indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1851 cr, 532 cr and 1635 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 782 cr.

Rupee depreciated 10 paise to end at 75.46/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are up nearly half a percent while Shanghai is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 20-month moving average, placed around 10111, which roughly coincided with the 10159 top made on 13th March (the day on which we had also seen a bottom of 8555), was the next target/resistance to eye.

Nifty hit a high of 10176 to achieve 10159 target mentioned above, but slipped from there to end at 10061.

10176, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 10334, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 12th March, would be the next target.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9800, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

10111-10159 IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9706

10111-10159 IS THE NEXT TARGET ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9706

WORLD MARKETS

US indices gained 0.6%-1%, with the Dow and S & P 500 hitting 3-month highs, on continued optimism over economies emerging from coronavirus-led shutdowns.

WTI crude climbed $1.37, or 3.9%, to settle at $36.81 per barrel while Brent rose 2.7%, or $1.04, to $39.36 a barrel on expectations that major producers will agree to extend output cuts during a video conference likely to be held this week.

European markets rose 0.9%-3.8%

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty soared 1.6% each, extending the winning streak to fifth straight day and closing at the highest level since 13 March and 11th March respectively. Sensex added 522 points to settle at 33825 while Nifty finished at 9979, up 153 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.2% and 1.8% respectively. Except 0.5% lower FMCG index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Realty index and Bankex leading the tally, up 4.6% and 3.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 7498 cr (which included Rs 6900 on account of Kotak Mahindra Bank Block Deal) and index futures worth Rs 357 cr but net sold stock futures worth Rs 484 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 441 cr.

Rupee appreciated 18 paise to end at 75.36/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.5%-1.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting more than 100 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had turned our view on Nifty bullish after 9178 hurdle was taken out and have been advising holding on to long positions with a trailing stop-loss. In yesterday's report we had said that 9970, the 50% retracement level of the entire 12430-7511 fall, is the next important target/resistance to eye.

Nifty climbed to touch a high of 9995 and closed at 9979, achieving 9970 target and vindicating our view. The benchmark is set to open near 10100 today.

20-month moving average, placed around 10111, which roughly coincides with the 10159 top made on 13th March (the day on which we had also seen a bottom of 8555), is the next target/resistance to eye. Above 10159, 10334, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 12th March, would be the next target to eye.

9706, the upper end of the gap created by Monday's gap-up opening, would now act as immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

9970 IS THE NEXT TARGET/HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9598

9970 IS THE NEXT TARGET/HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9598

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.4% each while Nasdaq rose 0.7% as hopes of economic recovery outweighed US-China tensions and civil unrest.

ISM manufacturing index improved to 43.1 in May from an 11-year low of 41.5 in April and marking the first rise in four months, indicating that the worst of the economic downturn was behind as businesses reopen.

Tensions between US and China continued to be in focus. Media reports suggested that China asked state-owned firms to halt purchases of soybeans and pork from the U.S.

Meanwhile, protests continued throughout the U.S. following the police killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, last week. Mayors of major cities from Los Angeles to Philadelphia to Atlanta imposed curfews and at least 12 states, as well as Washington, D.C., activated National Guard troops.

US crude fell 5 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $35.44 per barrel while Brent rose 48 cents, or 1.3%, to $38.32.

European market gained 1.4%-1.8%.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices jumped more than 2.5% each, extending the winning streak to fourth straight day and closing at the highest level since 30th April, 2020, marking a fresh one-month high. Sensex settled at 33303, up 879 points while Nifty added 245 points to finish at 9826. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 2.6% and 3% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Consumer Durables leading the tally, up 6.6%, followed by 3.9% higher Metal index.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1575 cr and 136 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 351 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 459 cr.

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to end at 75.54/$.

India May manufacturing PMI came in at 30.8 Vs 27.1 in April.

IMD (India Meteorological Department) today said that India as a whole would receive 102 per cent rainfall of its Long Period Average(LPA) of 88 centimetres during the current monsoon season.

Hero Motocorp May sales stood at 1.12 lk units. TVS Motors sold 58900 units. Eicher Motors' Royal Enefield sales fell 69% y-o-y to 19113 units. Ashok Leyland sales fell 89% to 1420 units. Maruti reported 86% y-o-y dip May sales at 18539 units. Escorts reported 3.4% dip at 6594 units. M & M tractor sales fell 1% y-o-y to 24341 units while Auto sales plunged 79% to 9560 units.

Rating agency Moody's downgraded India’s sovereign rating to Baa3, the lowest investment grade, and kept the outlook negative, citing growing risks of a prolonged period of slower growth amid rising debt and persistent stress in parts of the financial system.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are up 1.1% and 0.4% respectively while Shanghai is little changed. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that 9731, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 4th May, was the next upside target, above which, 9889, the top made in April, would be the major target/resistance.

Nifty achieved 9731 target at the open itself and surged all the way to 9931 before closing at 9826.

9970, the 50% retracement level of the entire 12430-7511 fall, is the next important target/resistance to eye.

9598, the lower end of the gap created by yesterday's gap-up opening, would now act as immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

9731, 9889 ARE UPSIDE TARGETS; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9376

9731, 9889 ARE UPSIDE TARGETS; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9376

WORLD MARKETS

Dow ended marginally in the red while S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.5% and 1.3% respectively on Friday. Indices erased initial losses after President Donald Trump signaled no changes to the trade deal with China despite rising tensions.

During a much-awaited news conference, Trump said he would take action to eliminate special treatment towards Hong Kong. However, he did not indicate the U.S. would pull out of the phase one trade agreement reached with China earlier this year.

In Europe, FTSES plunged 2.3% while DAX and CAC fell 1.6% each.

For the week, US indices gained 1.8%-3.8%. In Europe, CAC and DAX climbed 5.6% and 4.6% respectively while FTSE rose 1.4%. In Asia, Nikkei soared 7.3%, while Shanghai and Hang Seng gained 1.4% and 0.1% respectively.

AT HOME

After opening lower, Sensex and Nifty saw a sustained northward move through the session to end higher by 0.7% and 1% respectively, extending the winning streak to third straight day and closing at one-month high. Sensex settled at 32424, up 223 points while Nifty added 90 points to finish at 9580. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.9% and 1.1% respectively. BSE Realty and Oil & Gas indices soared 4.5% and 3.4% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth RS 1461 cr and 1374 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 631 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 967 cr.

Rupee appreciated 13 paise to end at 75.62/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty climbed 5.7% and 6% respectively, breaking 3-week losing streak. For the month, Sensex and Nifty fell 3.8% and 2.8% respectively.

India's GDP grew at 3.1% in the fourth quarter of FY20. FY20 growth rate slipped to 4.2%, its lowest in 11 years, from 6.1% in FY19.  FY20 fiscal deficit stood at Rs 9.36 lakh cr vs Rs 7.67 lakh cr (YoY). As a percentage of GDP, fiscal deficit stood at 4.6%, as against finance ministry’s estimate of 3.8%. A separate data showed, the core sector contracted by a record 38% in April as the lockdown hit all eight infrastructure sectors.

As lockdown 4.0 came to an end yesterday, the Centre on Saturday set out a three-phase "unlock" plan that will restrict curbs to containment zones and permit reopening of malls, hotels and restaurants, interstate travel and religious places in keeping with rules to be issued by the health ministry.

OUTLOOK

Data over the weekend showed China's official manufacturing PMI for May came in at 50.6, down from the 50.8 print in April and below the 51.0 level expected. However, the figure was above the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction.

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 1%-3.3% with Hang Seng on the top. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 150 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that we had turned our view on Nifty bullish after 9178 hurdle was taken out and have been advising holding on to long positions with a trailing stop-loss. On Friday we had said that upon crossover of 9530, 9584, the top made on 13th May, would be the next target/resistance.

Nifty surged to touch a high of 9598 before closing at 9580, achieving this target and vindicating our view.

Today, the benchmark is set to open above 9700.

9731, the upper end of the gap created by gap-down opening on 4th May, is the next upside target to eye. Above 9731, 9889, the top made in April, would be the major target/resistance.

On the way down, 9376, the bottom made on Friday, would work as immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

Auto companies will report their May sales figures today.