200-DMA LANDS SUPPORT AROUND 17570; 17863 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

200-DMA LANDS SUPPORT AROUND 17570; 17863 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices bounce-off intraday lows in late trade to end higher by 0.3% each after digesting fresh batch of corporate earnings and economic data.

 

New York state factory activity index shot to 10.8 in April from -24.6 in March, far higher than expectations of -18 in April and increasing for the first time in five months. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 8 bps to 3.602%. Dollar index rose half a percent to 102.09. Gold fell 0.4% to $1996 per ounce.

 

Charles Schwab rose 3.9% on a profit beat despite a decline in deposits while State Street fell 9.2% after missing estimates on the top and bottom lines.

 

Brent crude futures settled lower by 1.8% at $84.76 a barrel, while WTI crude dropped 2.05% to $80.83 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE inched up 0.1% while DAX and CAC fell 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling nearly a percent and half in first hour, Sensex and Nifty recouped nearly half of the losses through rest of the session to end lower by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. Sensex settled at 59910, down 520 points while Nifty lost 121 points to finish at 17706. This was the first negative day for both the indices after nine consecutive up sessions. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Nifty IT index nosedived 4.7%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.6% lower Pharma index. PSU Bank index surged 3.1%, becoming top gainer, followed by 1% higher FMCG, Realty and Oil & Gas indices.

 

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 533 cr, 747 cr and 663 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 270 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 12 paise to end at 81.97/$.

 

India's March WPI inflation cooled to 29-month low of 1.34% from 3.85% in the previous month.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up half a percent but Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17857, the 50% retracement level of the entire 18887-16828 fall, was the immediate hurdle to eye, while 17700-17650 was the immediate support zone on the hourly chart,  with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17863 in the initial trade, plunged to 17574 before closing at 17706.

 

17574, the low made yesterday, which roughly coincided with 200-DMA, is the immediate support to eye, upon breach of which, 34-DMA, placed around 17360, would be next downside level to eye; 17863, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle.

 

For Banknifty, 42600, 43000 are the upside targets to eye; 41300 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

17857 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17700-17650 IS THE SUPPORT AREA

 

17857 IS IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 17700-17650 IS THE SUPPORT AREA

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

On Thursday, US indices surged 1.1%-2%, cheering another report pointing to cooling U.S. inflation. The March producer price index declined by 0.5% month over month versus expectations for prices to be flat. Excluding food and energy, the core wholesale prices reading shed 0.1%, much better than the 0.2% increase expected.

 

US indices fell 0.2%-0.4% on Friday as a weak retail sales report dented enthusiasm around a stronger-than-expected start to corporate earnings. 

 

Retail sales declined by 1% last month, more than the 0.5% drop expected.

 

JPMorgan Chase reported record revenue that beat expectations. Results from Wells Fargo and Citigroup also beat estimates.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 7 bps to 3.517%. Dollar index rose 0.6% to 101.58. Gold tumbled 1.8% to $2003 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures settled at $86.31 a barrel, up 0.3% while WTI crude futures rose 0.4% to $82.52 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.4% while DAX and CAC gained half a percent each.

 

 

For the week, US indices gained 0.3%-1.2%, with the Dow notching its fourth straight positive week. European markets rose 1.3%-2.7%. Asian markets gained 0.3%-3.5% with Nikkei on the top.

 

WTI and Brent rose 2.8% and 2% respectively, posting a fourth consecutive week of gains amid easing concerns over a banking crisis that struck last month and the surprise decision last week by OPEC+ to further cut output.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 11 bps to 3.52%. Dollar index fell half a percent to 101.58. Gold eased  0.2% to $2003 per ounce.

 

AT HOME

 

After falling nearly half a percent, benchmark indices recouped all the losses and some more in second half to end marginally higher, extending the winning streak to ninth consecutive session. Sensex settled at 60431, up 38 points while Nifty added 15 points to finish at 17828. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Nifty Bank and Realty indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 1.4% and 1.1% respectively while IT index was the top loser, down 2.2%, followed by 0.8% lower Pharma index.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 222 cr and 1250 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 17 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 274 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 25 paise to end at 81.85/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1% and 1.3% respectively, extending the winning streak to third consecutive week and closing at the highest level after the week ended 17th February.

 

Infosys Q4 results were a shocker as both revenue and margins missed estimate by a wide margin. Revenue in fact dipped 3.2% sequentially, marking the worst pace of growth in 10 years. The company guided for a 4-7% revenue guidance for FY24, which is significantly lower than 15.4% revenue growth registered in FY23. Infosys ADR plunged 10% on Thursday.

 

HDFC Bank reported strong growth in Net Interest Income while asset quality and net interest margin remained stable. Profit missed estimate as operating expenses remained elevated due to branch expansion.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up nearly half a percent each while Nikkei is marginally in the red. SGX Nifty is suggesting 90-100 points lower start for our market.

 

In Thursday's report we had said that 18135, the top made in February, continued to be next big target to eye while 17650 was the immediate support on hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a low of 17729, rebounded to end at 17828. The benchmark is set to open near 17750 today.

 

17857, the 50% retracement level of the entire 18887-16828 fall, is the immediate hurdle to eye, upon crossover of which, 18135, the top made in February, would be next big target; 17700-17650 is the immediate support zone on the hourly chart,  with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 42966, the 78.6% retracement level of the entire 44151-38613 fall, is the next upside target to eye, above which, 43578, the top made in January, would be next target; 41300 is the immediate  support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17650

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17650

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.1%-0.8% as cooler-than-expected inflation report was overshadowed by recession concerns.

 

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed officials feared the economy could tilt into a mild recession later this year in the wake of the U.S. banking crisis.

 

March consumer price index rose 0.1% against estimate for 0.2%, and 5% y-o-y v/s estimate of 5.1%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.4% and 5.6% on an annual basis.

 

US 10-year treasury yield fell 3 bps to 3.396%. Dollar index fell 0.6% to 101.53. Gold rose half a perecent to $2014 per ounce.

 

Brent crude rose 2.01% to $87.33 a barrel while WTI closed up 2.1% to $83.26.

 

European markets gained 0.1%-0.5%.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty gained 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, extending the winning streak to eighth straight day and closing at the highest level after 21st February. Sensex added 235 points to settle at 60392 while Nifty added 90 points to finish at 17812. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Nifty Healthcare and Pharma indices surged 2.6% and 2.2% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while PSU Bank and Media indices were the top losers, down 0.6% each.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1908 cr, 1674 cr and 1475 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 225 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to end at 82.10/$.

 

Divi's Lab surged after posting a recovery in export sales in March.

 

March CPI eased to 15-month low of 5.66% from 6.44% in the previous month on the back of cooling food inflation and base effect. IIP in February grew 5.6%, which was in-line with estimate.

 

TCS Q4 earnings missed estimate as Dollar revenue as well as margin both came below estimate. Constant currency revenue growth came in at 11-quarter low.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Shanghai and Nikkei are little changed while Hang Seng is down a percent. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 18135, the top made in February, was the next big target to eye and had advised trailing stop-loss in longs to 17500.

 

Nifty surged to 17825 before closing at 17812.

 

18135, the top made in February, continues to be next big target to eye; 17650 is the immediate support on hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

42015, the top made in February, is the next target for Banknifty; 41100 is the immediate support.

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17500

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17500

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow rose 0.3%, S & P 500 ended flat while Nasdaq fell 0.4% ahead of Wednesday's key inflation data.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 1 bps to 3.43%. Dollar index fell 0.4% to 102.14. Gold rose 0.6% to $2003 per ounce.

 

Brent as well as WTI crude futures rose 2.1% each to $85.57 and $81.48 a barrel respectively.

 

Main European markets gained 0.4%-0.9%.

 

Data from China showed consumer inflation in March rose at its slowest pace since September 2021.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices gained nearly half a percent, extending the winning streak to seventh straight session. Sensex settled at 60157, up 311 points while Nifty added 98 points to finish at 17722. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

 

Nifty Metal and PSU Bank indices were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, up 1.8% and 1.6% respectively while IT and Consumer Durables indices were the top losers, down 1.3% and 0.4% respectively. Kotak Mahindra Bank and JSW Steel surged 4.6% and 3.8% respectively, becoming top Nifty gainers whereas TCS and Infosys dipped 1.8% each, becoming top losers. BSE advance-decline ratio stood at 1.8:1.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 343 cr, 2193 cr and 1104 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 264 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 82.13/$.

 

Kotak Mahindra Bank surged on expectation of increase in MSCI weight increase, which might lead to an inflow of $690 million, after recent shareholding showed drop in foreign shareholding in the bank.

 

JSW Steel rose after the company reported its highest ever quarterly consolidated crude steel production at 6.58 million tonnes for Q4 FY23.

 

IT stocks fell ahead of quarterly earnings on expectation of a muted growth in the January-March quarter on account of banking crisis in their largest markets.

 

IMF cut India's FY24 GDP growth forecast to 5.9% from an earlier estimate of 6.1%.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Shanghai are up 0.5% and 0.3% respectively while Hang Seng is down 0.7%. SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17700-17750 continued to be important resistance zone while immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 17450, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17748, closed at 17722.

 

18135, the top made in February, is the next big target to eye; 17500 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

41671, followed by 42015, the tops made in March and February respectively, are the upside levels for Banknifty; 40900-40700 is the support zone.

 

India's March CPI and February IIP data will be released today.

 

TCS will report its quarterly earnings today.

 

17700-17750 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17450

 

17700-17750 IS THE RESISTANCE ZONE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17450

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow and S & P 500 rose 0.3% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq was little changed yesterday, ahead of Wednesday's key inflation release.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 1 bps to 3.421%. Dollar index rose 0.4% to 102.54. Gold fell 0.8% to $1991 per ounce.

 

Brent crude settled down 0.2% at $84.58 a barrel while WTI fell 0.1% to $79.74.

 

European markets were shut for Easter Monday.

 

AT HOME

 

After rising nearly half a percent in first half, benchmark indices gave away most of the gains in second half to end just marginally higher. Sensex settled at 59846, up 13 points while Nifty added 25 points to finish at 17624. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Nifty Realty index surged 4.3%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.2% higher Auto index. Nifty Bank was the top loser, down half a percent, followed by 0.4% lower FMCG and Financial Service indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 883 cr, 1849 cr and 779 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 352 cr.

 

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to end at 81.98/$.

 

Tata Motors shares surged after its global wholesales, including Jaguar Land Rover, rose 8% YoY to 3,61,361 units in the March quarter. ONGC share rose on expectation that the domestic gas price mechanism unveiled by the government last week is likely to be beneficial for the company.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei and Hang Seng are up 1% each while Shanghai is off 0.3%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 35 points higher start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17700-17800 was the important resistance zone and had advised trailing stop-loss in longs to 17320.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17694, slipped to end at 17624.

 

17700-17750 continues to be important resistance zone as 17700 is where a trendline adjoining tops made in December 2022 and February 2023 is placed, while 34 and 20-week moving averages are placed around 17750; Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 17450, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 41275, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle; 40400 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17320

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17320

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow ended flat while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.4% and 0.8% respectively after the March jobs report showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation.

 

The U.S. added 236,000 jobs in March, about in line with expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% from 3.6% a month earlier. Average hourly earnings increased 4.2% y-o-y, the lowest level since June 2021.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 16 bps to 3.993%. Dollar index was flat at 102.09. Gold fell 0.6% to $2008  per ounce.

 

Brent as well as WTI crude settled down 0.2% at $84.86 and $80.47 a barrel respectively.

 

European markets gained 0.1%-1.3%.

 

For the week, The S&P 500 lost 0.1%, breaking a 3-week win streak. The Nasdaq Composite was down 1.1% for the week, while the Dow rose 0.6%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices rose quarter of a percent each, extending the winning streak to fifth consecutive session. Sensex settled at 59832, up 143 points while Nifty rose 42 points to finish at 17599. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Nifty Realty index surged 2.8%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.9% higher Financial Services index. IT index was the top loser, down 0.7%, followed by half a percent lower FMCG and Consumer Durables indices.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 476 cr, 291 cr and 706 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 997 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 12 paise to end at 81.88/$.

 

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, contrary to widely expected 25 bps hike, kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. "Withdrawal of accommodation" as a policy stance was maintained. RBI upped India's FY24 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from 6.4% earlier while inflation forecast for FY24 was cut to 5.2% from 5.3%.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.4% each, extending the winning streak to second consecutive week.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 60 points higher start for our market.

 

In Thursday's report we had said that 17592, the 78.6% retracement levels of the recent 17800-16828 fall, is the next upside level to eye, upon crossover of which, 17800, the top made in March, would be important hurdle to tackle; We had also said that immediate support on the hourly chart had moved up to 17250, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty touched a high of 17638 before closing at 17599. The benchmark is set to open near 17650 today.

 

17700 is where a trendline adjoining tops made in December 2022 and February 2023 are placed, while 34 and 20-week moving averages are placed around 17750 and 17800 respectively. This makes 17700-17800 important resistance zone. If Nifty is able to take out this hurdle, 18135 followed by 18252, the tops made in February and January respectively,  would be next upside targets; On the way down, 17320 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 41275, the top made last week, which also coincided with a trendline adjoining tops made since 14th December 2022, is the immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 42000, the top made in February, would be next upside target; 40400 is the immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17250

 

TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 17250

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

Dow, supported by healthcare stocks, rose quarter of a percent but S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.25% and 1.1% respectively on the back of weak economic data.

 

The ADP private payrolls report released Wednesday showed job growth slowed in March. Additionally, the ISM’s non-manufacturing index fell to 51.2 last month from 55.1 in February, while the prices paid component declined to 59.5 from 65.6, with the services sector’s employment indicator sliding as well to 45.8 from 47.6.

 

US 10-year treasury yield fell 3 bps to 3.314%. Dollar index rose 0.3% to 101.882. Gold was flat at $2020 per ounce.

 

Brent crude futures settled up 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $84.99 a barrel, while WTI crude ended 10 cents, or 0.1%, lower at $80.61 a barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.4% but DAX and CAC fell 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty surged 1% and 0.9% respectively, extending the winning streak to fourth consecutive day and closing at the highest level after 9th March. Sensex settled at 59689, up 582 points while Nifty added 159 points to finish at 17557. Nifty mid-cap index was little changed while small-cap index rose 0.7%. Except 0.8% and 0.6% lower PSU Bank and Auto indices respectively, all the NSE sectoral indices ended higher, with FMCG and IT indices on the top, up 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 807 cr, 2789 cr and 561 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 947 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 33 paise to end at 82/$.

 

India's S & P Global March Services PMI fell to 57.8 in March from 59.4 in the previous month.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.1%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting around 20 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17500, around which 200-DMA is placed, was the next upside target, above which, 17592, the 78.6% retracement levels of the recent 17800-16828 fall, would be next upside level to eye. We had also said that 17150-17100 was the immediate support zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs could be held on to.

 

Nifty soared to touch a high of 17570 before closing at 17557.

 

17592, the 78.6% retracement levels of the recent 17800-16828 fall, is the next upside level to eye, upon crossover of which, 17800, the top made in March, would be important hurdle to tackle; Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 17250, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 41671, the top made in March, is the next big level to eye; 40200 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to hike key repo rate by 25 bps to 6.75% when it announces it's decision today. Market would watch out for the commentary and inflation projections to guage future interest rate trajectory.