Wednesday, October 31, 2018

10275 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10140 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT


10275 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE; 10140 IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS

Dow surged 1.8% and S & P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 1.6% each, recouping more than they had lost in the previous session.

Trump, in a media interaction, said that he thinks the U.S. will make a "great" trade deal with China.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to a print of 137.9 this month, its highest level since September 2000.

Coca-Cola reported third-quarter earnings that topped estimates. General Electric fell more than 10% to dip below $10 per share for the first time since 2009 after the company disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission is expanding its probe into the company's accounting practices.

Dollar index rose about a third of a percent to 97, hitting highest level in a year and half.

US oil fell 1.3% to 10-week low of $66.18 while Brent fell 2.1% to $75.69 a barrel after International Energy Agency chief said fuel demand could take a hit and crude output from Russia, U.S. and Saudi Arabia reaches 33 million barrels per day (bpd), or a third off global demand.

European markets, except 0.1% higher FTSE, fell 0.2%-0.4%. Year-on-year euro zone growth slowed to 1.7% from 2.2% in the second quarter.

AT HOME

After rising about a third of a percent in the first hour, benchmark indices saw a sustained downward move through the session to end lower by half a percent. Sensex settled at 33891, down 176 points while Nifty lost 52 points to finish at 10198. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.9% each. BSE Energy and Oil & Gas indices tumbled 2.7% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while IT and Teck indices gained 1.7% each, becoming top gainers.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1592 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 201 cr and 134 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1363 cr.

Rupee depreciated 24 paise to end at 73.68/$.

Tech Mahindra's revenue missed estimates but margin was a beat. Dollar revenue fell 0.5% q-o-q to $1218 mn while in constant currency terms, revenue grew 0.4%. Rupee  revenue rose 4.3% to Rs 8630 cr, EBIT was up 23% at Rs 1324 cr while margin rose 230 bps to 15.3%.

BoB reported in-line with expected NII growth while net profit missed estimate by a bit. However, slippages hit a seven-quarter low and asset quality improved. NII rose 21% to Rs 4492 cr and Net profit was up 20% at Rs 425 cr. Fresh slippages at Rs 2281 cr, were at a 7 quarter low. Gross NPA ratio fell 68 bps q-o-q to 11.78% and net NPA ratio improved 54 bps to 4.86%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-1.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 70 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had said that "10275, the top made yesterday, also coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent 10710-1004 fall and hence is the immediate hurdle to eye". We had also said that 10140 is the immediate support on the hourly chart.

Nifty, after touching a high of 10285 in the first hour, slipped to end at 10198 but is set to open around 10270 today.

10275 continues to be immediate hurdle, a sustained trading above which is required for a fresh upmove. If that happens, 10408-10440 would be the next resistance zone where 10408 is the top made last week and 10440 is the 61.8% retracement level of the 10710-10004 fall.

10140 continues to be immediate support below which 1004, the low made last week, would be the crucial support to eye.

Tata Motors, L & T and Lupin will report their quarterly earnings today.

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