Monday, November 26, 2018

10440 CONTINUES TO BE DOWNSIDE TARGET/SUPPORT; 10650 IMMEDIATE HURDLE


10440 CONTINUES TO BE DOWNSIDE TARGET/SUPPORT; 10650 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS

US indices fell 0.5%-0.7% on Friday as technology shares extended correction and oil prices resumed free fall.

Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet all fell with Apple down 2.5% on reports that the company plans to cut prices for the iPhone XR in Japan because it's not selling well.

US oil nosedived $4.21 or 7.7% to $50.42/barrel, its lowest level since mid-October 2017. Brent fell $3.66 or 5.9% to $58.94.

European markets, except 0.1% lower FTSE, gained 0.2%-0.6%. Eurozone IHS Markit Flash Composite PMI for November came in at 52.4, the weakest number since late 2014. Bond yields fell on increased bets that weak growth across the euro zone (19 of the 28 European Union members) would slow the ECB's plan to withdraw stimulus.

For the week, US indices nosedived 3.8%-4.4%, extending the losing streak to second consecutive week  and marking the worst thanksgiving week since 2011. European markets fell 0.9%-1.6%. In Asia, Shanghai was down 3.7% while Hang Seng and Nikkei were off 1% and 0.2% respectively. WTI was down about 12%, extending the losing streak to seventh consecutive week and suffering the worst weekly loss since January 2016.

European Union leaders gave their official endorsement of U.K. Prime Minister May's Brexit withdrawal yesterday during a gathering in Brussels. May however faces a tough challenge next month when she needs to gain Parliamentary approval for the deal as many politicians in the U.K. believe that May is making too many concessions to the EU. May's failure here could lead to her being toppled as leader or even the U.K. crashing out of the EU without a deal.

AT HOME

After rising just under half a percent in the first hour, Sensex and Nifty plunged more than a percent from the top of the day to end lower by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight day. Sensex lost 218 points to settle at 34981 while Nifty finished at 10526, down 73 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. Except a 0.1% higher Capital Goods index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Metal and Telecom indices leading the losses, down 1.8% and 1.6% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 446 cr and 1601 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 289 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 50 cr.

Rupee appreciated 78 paise to end at 70.67/$, marking a three-month high.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty fell 1.3% and 1.5% respectively, breaking three-week winning streak.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.6% and SGX Nifty is trading around 10575, suggesting about 50 points higher start for our market when compared to Thursday's close of Nifty futures.

We had given downside target of 10440 after Nifty broke immediate support of 10625. Nifty on Thursday plunged to 10512 before closing at 10526 and is set to open above 10550 today.

10440, the bottom made on 13th November, continues to be important immediate support to eye.

10650 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts should be held on to.

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